Based on the staff's enthusiasm re Murphy's game and potential a year ago [preseason 2011-12], the persuasive commentary re Murphy of several EK posters in random threads, and my own eye test in a [very] few looks at Murphy [Elite 24 "game" and last preseason], I, like others, firmly assume Murphy will start at SF, and garner majority minutes there all season long. Say 20-25 mpg there, probably 25.
Backup? Shared by Jefferson and Sulaimon, situation-dependent. Neither is a perfect backup; nor, for that matter, is Murphy perfect, just yet. Sulaimon, says my and others' eye test, is quite good defensively, but he's probably about 6'3", and when he's at the 3, we're back to the "dreaded" 3-guard lineup. So, it's possible we'd be 3-guarding maybe 15 mpg, though that's unlikely.
Unlikely because Jefferson is a good candidate to get at least a few minutes at the 3. Not because he "is" a 3 - he's a 4 in the right-now-body of a "3 1/2" - but because Duke does not have several "classic" [6'6"-6'7"] SF's on this season's roster. I guess, indeed, Duke has none such classic SFs.
Rather, after last season's non-classic SFs in the persons of wing/2s Rivers and Dawkins [and even combo guy Thornton], this season K has 3 new non-classic SFs: Murphy, who is a little taller than classic and, who knows, maybe not as "fluid" as, oh, say, Grant Hill; Jefferson, taller still, weird game on O, definitely not perimeter-smooth, an experiment as a 3-D; and Sulaimon, shorter, D-rep, guilt-by-association of dreaded 3-guard-didn't-pan-out-last-season.
Although I lean to the view that Cook's vast improvement is the key to our season, the 3-spot will surely involve several interesting new experiments [i.e., players]. Murphy is closest to a non-experiment, and may be just right at the SF, 25 mpg worth. [And depending on recruiting, Murphy might wind up playing mostly 4 in 2013-14......] Jefferson and Sulaimon are the most logical backups, because there are no logical backups. They're at least more logical than Thornton, who is yet another very, very experimental 3-D.
Ok, I'll give you the 2011 team did not have a 3 guard lineup as Singler and a combination of the Plumlees and Kelly started a majority of the games With Kyrie and Nolan and then Curry starting after Kyrie got hurt.
But the 2007 and 2008 teams all started 3 guard lineups, 4 if you count the 6'4" Gerald Henderson as a guard.
The 2007 and 2008 lineups were basically Paulus, Scheyer and Nelson, Henderson and McRoberts (2007)/Singler (2008). And Nelson was never the 6'4" he was listed as. In the NBA camp they measured him as 6' 1 3/8".
As Charles Barkley said after that terrible Friday night last March "Duke and Missouri are playing small ball with small lineups. You're the big boys, start playing like big boys".
Kenny Smith said "Everybody's now has got guards. Ohio U has guards. Norfolk State has guards, Lehigh has guards. It's the teams that play big that do well in the tourney"
Last edited by ohiodukefan; 10-10-2012 at 01:19 PM.
In watching various videos of Rasheed, I will be surprised if he doesn't capture an increasing amount of time in the guard rotation as the season progresses. By the end of the year, he might be playing the same number of minutes as Seth, or maybe even more in some games. He is bigger, stronger, has better lateral quickness, and can be an aggressive driver and finisher. From my point of view, a line-up of Quin and Rasheed will likely be at times the best option available at the guard positions.
Last edited by NM Duke Fan; 10-10-2012 at 01:34 PM.
In 2007 McRoberts, Scheyer, Nelson and Paulus all started between 29 and 31 games. But Henderson started 10, while Lance Thomas started 18 and David McCure started 11. Zoubek started twice. McRoberts, Thomas, McClure and Zoubek combined for 63 starts in 33 games. So, clearly Duke did not start four guards that season with any regularity.
McClure played 98 more minutes than Henderson that season and almost all of that was inside.
Scheyer came off the bench in 2008, as a sixth man. Paulus, Nelson and Henderson got the bulk of the starts. Some combination of Singler, Thomas, Zoubek, King and McClure played most of the game at the 4/5. That quintet averaged over 71 mpg and that factors in the games Zoubek missed with injuries.
Henderson averaged about 26 mpg that season. And I would not consider him a guard, not in 2008. Henderson is 6-4 but a strong 6-4, with an exceptional vertical. Duke used Henderson as a slashing wing. He had almost as many dunks as assists (45 to 56) that year and was never more than the third ball-handler.
Duke was under-sized for sure, as suggested by using the 6-6 McClure as a post. Injuries to Zoubek and the unexpected transfers of Eric Boateng and Jamal Boykin forced K's hand during that period. But neither Henderson nor Nelson played all that much at the 4, except in end-of-half and end-of-game situations.
Fairly presumptuous statement, Kedsy. I have read many quotes by the coaches in articles, having kept up with the program for decades now. I have also read quotes in the past about players and what role they are expected to play. Some of those projections pan out, others do not. Once again, D is a huge key, and K has also stated that a renewed emphasis on D is a key point of the coming year. I will be shocked if Seth has made major gains in that area of his game. Yes, he brings some nice 3 point shooting and it is important, and I am cheering for him as much as anybody. I have already stated my case for Rasheed getting increasing minutes. BTW, I personally hope that Mason is the leading scorer, if Seth and others will get him the ball in a more consistent manner. Last year's guards often did a really poor job of feeding the post, and kept jacking up threes.
I personally agree with you that Rasheed will get plenty of playing time, probably in the 25 mpg range, but I think those minutes will be spread among three positions, and not primarily at Seth's expense.
As for scoring, I expect Seth to be our leading scorer, but for Mason and Ryan to score plenty, kind of like 2010 when almost 70% of our scoring came from three players. Probably not quite so skewed this season, maybe only 60%.
He's not Billy King on the defensive side of the ball. But, in the aggregate I do not think him a liability on defense, especially when he's not being asked to guard either an opposing point or an opposing wing forward.
FWIW, I very much agree with NM fan about feeding the post; indeed, feeding anybody. I expect a healthy Cook to be a significant upgrade in that area.
Last edited by -jk; 10-10-2012 at 03:23 PM. Reason: fixing typo
Or, maybe the team didn't play as well defensively as a team last year, and nobody looked great defensively as a result.
I have a theory that if team defense is understood a bit better this year, (three seniors will hopefully communicate very well) players improve their positioning and defensive play a bit, and there is a bit more size at one of the wing positions for half the game, the defense will look better this year. The players who played a lot of minutes when the team had the 8th ranked defense in the country might show that they are pretty decent defensive players and will help the new players who all seem to have potential to be solid defensively as well.
I am looking forward to the team being able to win games when they are not shooting well, though I expect the team to continue its very strong offensive play from the past few years.
“Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”
Disagree with this. I think Rasheed will be a very effective three-point shooter, and immediately serve to help soften the blow of losing our most potent gunner from a season ago. Andre Dawkins he may not be, but perimeter shooting was one of Rasheed's many strengths as a scorer at the high school level, and, for what it's worth, he did win the Gatorade three-point shootout at the McDonald's game in April. If the long line of past Duke winners of that competition are any indication of future deep range success -- Chris Collins, Trajan Langdon, Nate James, Shane Battier, J.J. Redick and Ryan Kelly -- then Rasheed is in great company.Originally Posted by Kedsy
Also, Alex Murphy's versatility as a pure inside-out swingman, with the ability to put it on the floor and create or hit from deep if space is given to him, will really work to stretch defenses. Maybe not as much this year, but by his sophomore or junior seasons, I think the Singler comparisons will gain major traction.
Last edited by Newton_14; 10-10-2012 at 08:14 PM.
I'm very excited about Rasheed and his defensive presence. I'm not expecting him to be much of a shooter or a scorer his freshman year (although I do expect his offense to pick up his sophomore and later seasons). I'd be thrilled to be pleasantly surprised by Rasheed's offense this season, but as I said I'm not expecting it.
i, like a number others here, am a bit concerned about a curry/cook perimeter from a defensive perspective (although I'll leave the hyperbole to others). the happy outcome is that we see big improvements from cook, but i think it would be relatively rare for a player to go from where cook was last year to where he needs to be. many folks are pointing to recovery from injury as a key reason to expect an improvement - i don't have a ton of confidence in that line of thinking. is it confirmed he still hadn't fully recovered by the second half of the season and that he was hindered enough to make what we saw not representative of quinn's actual capabilities?
i'm not terribly concerned on offense - i expect big things from what is easily one of the best front courts in the country (and the trickle down benefits for our other shooters). defense is the key.
because of my curry/cook defensive concerns, i am intrigued by the possibility of a sulaimon/curry back court as a way to address a weakness. unfortunately, that would put a lot of pressure on rasheed and there is a good chance he doesn't have the ball handling/distribution skill set to shoulder that load (too bad we don't have the greatest coach ever to evaluate these things). or maybe curry could channel his inner scheyer and... ah nevermind, already tried that.
Hopefully, noobody minds, but I wanted to rehash a post of mine from the Parker thread in here, because, well, it makes more sense. And, it deals with a recurring theme around here re: perimeter defense...
Popular opinion among many seems to be that, while Alex Murphy is going to provide us much needed help defensively at the three slot against opposing athletic wings, we are once going to get eaten alive by athletic penetrators ala C.J. McCollum on the perimeter. With the departure of Austin Rivers' dynamic offensive game, however, comes the dynamic defensive game of Rasheed Sulaimon. He stands at 6'4 and has elite quickness and the versatility to hold his own against any position in the backcourt defensively. He is just the type of player we lacked a season ago. It will just be a matter of finding a lineup that will allow for Rasheed to earn considerable time on the floor, as it would appear that he will be chiefly competing with Curry for burn, at least in terms of how the early lineup appears on paper.
I am confident that Coach K will devise a lineup that work to utilize our biggest assets as well as possible, and the arrival of Rasheed not only as a potent scorer on the wing, but more importantly as our best defensive guard since Nolan, is one of them. He will need to be on the court. Period. Quinn, Seth and Tyler, who is certainly no slouch defensively and probably our most tenacious on-ball defender a year ago, are too small and not versatile enough to stop elite guards from making their way to the basket. In an effort to combat this, any chance that Rasheed plays signicant time at the point? I heard rumblings of this in the spring, but not much since. He's a solid ball handler, crafty passer and excellent at creating his shot on the perimeter. Could it work?