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  1. #41
    There are two assumptions that keep popping up and I'm wondering what people on this board think about the validity of these assumptions:

    #1: Quinn is likely to win the starting point guard spot.
    #2: Amile is going to spend time on the perimeter (i.e. play the 3).

    Personally, I think #1 is much more likely than #2. I haven't seen Amile play much besides in highlight videos, but I get the feeling that any minutes he gets will be at the 4. It doesn't seem like he has the offensive game of a SF, so even if he does have the lateral quickness to guard SFs, would K put a non-perimeter-oriented offensive player at the 3? I've seen the suggestion on this board that perhaps he can play the 4 on offense and the 3 on defense while Ryan does the opposite. I suppose that's a possibility.

    I've read some previews suggesting that Josh has a chance to win the starting SF spot. I don't think the people writing this have any idea what they're talking about. I'm hoping that by now, his junior year, the game has slowed down for Josh and that he can offer solid minutes backing up Ryan, but I don't think there's anything about his game that makes him a viable option at the 3.

    I'm personally most curious about Alex -- I'm wondering what exactly the coaching staff expects his role to be. Do they look at him strictly as a SF and are they going to develop him as a perimeter player? Are they going to build him in that 3/4 hybrid mode? Looking at this year's 6 scholarship players over 6'4", Alex seems the most likely to spend any time on the perimeter. It makes sense to me that Alex would spend more time at the 3 than at the 4 just based on the balance of players on this year's roster.

    I like the look of this roster breakdown:

    1: Quinn, Tyler (maybe a tiny bit of Seth/Rasheed)
    2-3: Seth, Rasheed, Alex
    4-5: Mason, Ryan, Josh, Amile, Marshall (maybe a bit of Alex)

    As for my expectations (specific and general):

    -I think it's pretty likely that Duke will beat Kentucky -- I honestly don't expect Kentucky to be very good this year. Their freshman class doesn't look as impressive as those of the past couple of years and, unlike the past couple of years, they have no one with notable experience returning like Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, Patrick Patterson, or even Josh Harrellson. Duke's 3-man senior class will have a bigger impact than most are expecting, particularly early in the season.
    -UNC won't be an NCAA top-4 seed -- I think UNC's roster is filled with a lot of mediocrity. In particular, they have a glut of decent wings. In my opinion, James McAdoo is heavily overrated but is at the same time UNC's only hope to have an excellent season.
    -If Duke can stay relatively healthy, a Final Four is certainly possible -- The past two seasons have been severely impacted by injuries to key players (perhaps making up for the relatively good health we enjoyed in 2010). If K can establish a team identity early on and this team can defend/rebound, I can't see Duke getting lower than a 2 seed.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    "If you have to be placated, be placated by Jim Sumner." - Unknown

    Thanks for the sobering facts. Clearly, all these ads in Ohio have gotten the better of me.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    In order to fend off the woof gods, let me note that the 1995 team also had three seniors.
    As did 1983. So, consider yourself placated.

    For the record, in the K era, Duke also had at least three recruited seniors in 1981, 1985, 1997, 1998, and 2003.
    My original research looked at seasons under K in which we had three seniors playing major roles (which I defined as 15 or more mpg). I was trying to see the effect of having seniors on the floor (as opposed to on the bench, which I suppose is also valuable but is not what I was measuring). That rules out 1981, 1983, 1985, 1997, 1998, and 2003 (in those seasons the third senior played fewer than 15 mpg). While it's true the 1995 team met my minutes criterion, it wasn't coached by K.

    So, the Duke teams coached by K that had three seniors playing 15+ mpg were: '86, '89, '90, '94, '06, '10. I expect 2013 to meet the criteria as well, so we'll just have to see what happens.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Thanks for clarifying, and I apologize for misrepresenting your excellent research.

    Placated twice in an hour. That's a record for me.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Thanks for the clarification.

    FWIW, K did coach 14 of 31 games in 1994-95. The ones that Duke won.

    I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

    Trivia question. Name the only season in which Duke had three seniors make All-ACC.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Inman, SC & Melbourne Beach, FL
    My observation over the years is that Duke starts the season strong -- excellent preparation, ahead of other teams. During the year other teams catch up, and some pass us. Perhaps this year we will start a little slower and build from there. OK, wishful thinking, I know. In a month, we will start to find out.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtr View Post
    My observation over the years is that Duke starts the season strong -- excellent preparation, ahead of other teams. During the year other teams catch up, and some pass us.
    To be fair, some teams catch up, and other teams fall apart. (Looking at you, Rick Barnes.) We just play less attention to those.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Thanks for the clarification.

    FWIW, K did coach 14 of 31 games in 1994-95. The ones that Duke won.

    I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

    Trivia question. Name the only season in which Duke had three seniors make All-ACC.
    1978? - Spanarkle, Giminski & Banks

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    1978? - Spanarkle, Giminski & Banks
    None of those guys were seniors in 1978. In fact, Duke did not have a single recruited senior on that team.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    1978? - Spanarkle, Giminski & Banks
    Um - i think that would be a junior, a soph, and a frosh.

    -jk

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    I want what Dave wants except with unc getting Lehighed in the round of 64.
    Does the NIT have 64 teams?
    "What, me worry?" -- Roy Williams

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Thanks for the clarification.

    FWIW, K did coach 14 of 31 games in 1994-95. The ones that Duke won.

    I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

    Trivia question. Name the only season in which Duke had three seniors make All-ACC.
    Grant Hill, Tony Lang, Marty Clark? 1994?

    Wainstein Report Page 19 Section G:
    In men’s basketball, academic counselor Burgess McSwain (“McSwain”) and
    her successor Wayne Walden routinely called Crowder to arrange classes for their
    players.
    Roy Williams Of Nazareth had no knowledge however. He is sinless.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Newton_14 View Post
    Grant Hill, Tony Lang, Marty Clark? 1994?
    Nah. Hill was first team All-ACC and ACC POY. Lang was third-team All-ACC. But Clark was a reserve who averaged a modest 8.1 ppg.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Thanks for the clarification.

    FWIW, K did coach 14 of 31 games in 1994-95. The ones that Duke won.

    I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.

    Trivia question. Name the only season in which Duke had three seniors make All-ACC.
    Langdon, McLeod, Wojo in '98. Not sure if Langdon counts there, he was a senior that year but had his redshirt senior year in 99

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    Langdon, McLeod, Wojo in '98. Not sure if Langdon counts there, he was a senior that year but had his redshirt senior year in 99
    Kudos to my mom for this, 1964, Mullins, Buckley, Harrison.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    Kudos to my mom for this, 1964, Mullins, Buckley, Harrison.
    We have a winner. Jeff Mullins-1st team; Jay Buckley and Buzzy Harrison, 2nd team.

    Kudos to your mom, indeed.

    FWIW, Harrison may seem like a bit of a head-scratcher. Only 8.7 ppg and he wasn't the playmaker--Denny Ferguson was--so that's not it. But there were only eight ACC teams in 1964 and four of them had overall losing records, a fifth was .500 and a sixth was 13-12. So, it made sense to reward a Duke team that went 13-1 in the conference.

    FWIW2, I can't consider Langdon a senior in 1998, when he was a senior in 1999.

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I would probably have a lower threshold than 15 mpg. I certainly would count Jim Suddath in 1981 and Carmen Wallace in 1997 as contributors.
    Actually, Suddath in 1981 is exactly the kind of guy I was trying to not count. He had 6 DNPs, which if you count as zero minutes means he averaged just over 7 mpg. He never played more than 12 minutes in a game until the post-season. Although, I grant you that he was a big-minute starter in our four post-season games that season (in large part due to Gene Banks's injury). And neither here nor there, but I used to love watching him shoot backwards free throws in warm-ups.

    Carmen Wallace might be a closer case, but he only played double-figure minutes in two of our final 11 games, and averaged 11.0 mpg (if you count his 3 DNPs as zero minutes). So he wasn't really on the floor so much in the big games down the stretch.

    Anyway, you have to put the threshold somewhere and for good or ill I chose 15 mpg. If anybody cares, it wouldn't be that hard to see what it looks like with a lower threshold.

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    I'll take 40-0 and let the details work themselves out...
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Reading the first paragraph, I was wondering if OZZIE had moved to DC and hijacked your laptop.
    Sorry to be late to the party, but of course ...
    40 - 0, All the banners hanging in Cameron next April!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    http://www.EGLEW.com


  19. #59
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Nanjing, China
    I see quite a bit of speculation that our top 6 guys in the rotation will be Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, and Rasheed. That's all well and good, especially on offense, where Ryan is a real matchup problem for most teams, and I believe Alex will fit that profile as well, but wow, that's a really weak top 6 on defense. At this point, I think we know what Ryan and Seth are as defenders. While Ryan causes many problems for opponents on offense . . . he causes almost no problems for them on defense. His lateral agility will never be close to elite, and the same goes for Seth. Seth is an amazing shooter and will probably lead the team in scoring, but he can't guard anyone.

    If Ryan and Seth are both in the game with Mason, the other two players need to be defensive minded players. I think a huge part of this season's success depends on Quinn Cook's defense. Last year, he was terrible. Conceding the fact that he was hurt, but he was terrible. Duke had it worst defensive season, I believe, ever under Coach K. If Quinn hasn't improved significantly on D, I don't see how we can play him, Ryan, and Seth in the same lineup and not expect to get torched on D. I honestly think Rasheed may be the starter by the end of the year at PG and share ball handling duties with Seth.

    Call me crazy, but I think the best starting lineup by mid-season is : Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, Rasheed. Quinn is a great point guard, but he's tiny, and having 2 guys under 6'1" with sub-par athleticism on the perimeter is just a recipe for disaster for any defense. Quinn is just going to have to get his minutes while Seth or Ryan is on the bench.

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by licc85 View Post
    Call me crazy, but I think the best starting lineup by mid-season is : Mason, Ryan, Alex, Seth, Rasheed. Quinn is a great point guard, but he's tiny, and having 2 guys under 6'1" with sub-par athleticism on the perimeter is just a recipe for disaster for any defense. Quinn is just going to have to get his minutes while Seth or Ryan is on the bench.
    I see in Quinn an awful lot of Kyrie Irving. It didn't show up much last year because he was hurt and a freshman. But I hope he can be a point guard that just takes over a game. That makes Duke basketball a lot of fun.

    But to make you feel better, if guys can play strong D, especially if they are long and lean, they will get lots of minutes at Duke.

    sagegrouse

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