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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio

    Season tips off one month from today/Your expectations for 2012-2013

    With starting practice just a few days away and the Georgia Southern game tipping off one month from today, what are your expectations for the 2012-2013 Blue Devils?

    Take into account:

    This is a team that won 27 games last year but was embarrassed in the NCAA Tournament's first round losing to #15 seed Lehigh.

    They lose their leading scorer in A. Rivers and center Miles Plumlee, both first ropund draft picks in the NBA.

    The ACC has been down lately, allowing Duke and UNC to build impressive win totals in conference. I think that stops this year with the improvement in NC State, Florida St and Miami.

    Duke will have 4 players expected to be important parts of the team that have never played in a college basketball game.

    A tough, tough non-conference schedule that could include playing 3 or the top 10 teams in the country in the first 3 weeks of the season.

    What do you think this team can achieve in win totals, ACC, seeding in the dance, and where they finish (1st round, 2nd round, Sweet 16, Final Four).

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship with Mason getting consensus NPOY and Ryan Kelly getting Final Four MOP after averaging 30 ppg in beating Kentucky in the semifinal and being the difference in the title game when we beat UNC by 57.


    But seriously, I think we can win the ACC title (both regular season and tourney) and think that if we're hot and healthy, we'll go far in the tourney. It's always hard to predict that before we get there...anything can happen in March. The ACCs, we can predict. This team may start slow, but will grow as a unit and by February 1st, they'll hopefully be the team no one wants next on their calendar.
    Check out the Duke Basketball Roundup!

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  3. #3
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Boston
    The ACC being on the up may hurt our win total a little from recent years, but may help keep us fresh for the tournament. I look forward to a more competitive ACC.

    I also anticipate one of our seniors being an All-American candidate, and the three of them complementing each other well as the focal points of the offense.

    I don't think 4 new guys will all play significant roles. We have 6 returning regulars, and I'll be shocked if we have 10 regular contributors. My guess would be that Amile gets the short end of the stick, although we see his minutes increase dramatically the following season with Mason and Ryan gone.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship with Mason getting consensus NPOY and Ryan Kelly getting Final Four MOP after averaging 30 ppg in beating Kentucky in the semifinal and being the difference in the title game when we beat UNC by 57.
    I'll take 40-0 and let the details work themselves out...

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    I agree with Dev11 that one of our guys will contend for ACC MVP and 1st team All American. I have no idea who that will be, but here are four candidates:

    Mason
    Ryan
    Seth
    Quinn

    The 2013 team will be at the top of the ACC -- first or second in the regular season -- and will have a good shot at the ACC championship. But 2013 will see a tough ACC and peril lurking in every game.

    Our NCAA accomplishments, however, are beyond the range of my crystal ball.

    sagegrouse

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by ohiodukefan View Post
    With starting practice just a few days away and the Georgia Southern game tipping off one month from today, what are your expectations for the 2012-2013 Blue Devils?

    Take into account:

    This is a team that won 27 games last year but was embarrassed in the NCAA Tournament's first round losing to #15 seed Lehigh.

    They lose their leading scorer in A. Rivers and center Miles Plumlee, both first ropund draft picks in the NBA.

    The ACC has been down lately, allowing Duke and UNC to build impressive win totals in conference. I think that stops this year with the improvement in NC State, Florida St and Miami.

    Duke will have 4 players expected to be important parts of the team that have never played in a college basketball game.

    A tough, tough non-conference schedule that could include playing 3 or the top 10 teams in the country in the first 3 weeks of the season.

    What do you think this team can achieve in win totals, ACC, seeding in the dance, and where they finish (1st round, 2nd round, Sweet 16, Final Four).
    I am dreaming of the season that blazindw is envisaging in his first paragraph with a 10 man rotation with everyone contributing every game, with three seniors vying for all-American honors.

    I am expecting a regular season with 25 wins, a top 2 regular season finish in the ACC, an ACCT semifinal appearance with hopefully another championship, a top 3 NCAA tournament seed (hopefully top 2), a 4-team tournament win the first weekend of the NCAA tournament and as good a chance as anyone to advance past that.

    I also expect the team's 3 seniors to all be all-ACC performers and at least one of them competing for 1st team all-ACC and all-American honors.

    As I am every year, I am very excited to watch this team play, go through some struggles, grow and improve. Bring on the season.

  7. #7

    A season for TEAM accomplishments

    We will win the ACC, the ACC Tournament, and move to the Elite 8. I can't call it from there.

    None of this will be easy and we will have play some close games. Not a lot of blow-outs. Our defense will improve as the year progresses - just how much will determine how far we go.

    This is a veteran team. Three key seniors. Two hard-working, blue-collar juniors. A talented sophomore point guard now at full strength. Four newcomers (two of whom practiced with the team all last year) - all of whom bring specific skills that will shore up specific weaknesses that we had.

    We lost the superstar, lottery pick element, no doubt about it. And I really liked having Austin last year. We don't replace Austin (and Miles) with one player, though. We replace them with four.

    So ...Keys will be:

    - the defensive development of our newcomers.

    - The emergence of an early first round NBA-type draft pick player from our seniors (Mason?, Ryan?, Seth?). I'm not talking potential - they all have it - I'm talking production.

    - The re-integration of the so-called "small forward" back into the Duke system. We just didn't have that player last year. I think it is a key part of K's system and we were missing it.


    I think ...

    The point guard argument will continue all season.

    Alex or Amile will emerge as a force in terms of minutes and being a key part of the team. I just don't know which.

    Marshall will be a bigger factor off the bench than most people give him credit for.

    Josh will bring us energy off the bench, but will have games where he doesn't get to play as much.

    Rasheed will dazzle us and frustrate us as times - but will hit some keys shots in the post-season.

    Mason and Ryan will be stars - Seth will lead the team in scoring, though.

    A national championship is not out of the question.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia

    Knock on wood

    Let me add, I hope for no major injuries to any of the team this year, so the team can accomplish the great things they are capable of.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    I expect us to go 40-0, go undefeated in the ACC, overall #1 seed in the tourney and win a National Championship with Mason getting consensus NPOY and Ryan Kelly getting Final Four MOP after averaging 30 ppg in beating Kentucky in the semifinal and being the difference in the title game when we beat UNC by 57.


    But seriously, I think we can win the ACC title (both regular season and tourney) and think that if we're hot and healthy, we'll go far in the tourney. It's always hard to predict that before we get there...anything can happen in March. The ACCs, we can predict. This team may start slow, but will grow as a unit and by February 1st, they'll hopefully be the team no one wants next on their calendar.
    Reading the first paragraph, I was wondering if OZZIE had moved to DC and hijacked your laptop.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    If we stay healthy, we should certainly compete for the conference and national championships. Mason is a force, and Ryan is a real match-up problem for anyone. Lots of talent in the backcourt and on the wings, too. It may take some time for it to gel -- I'm not gonna get wigged if we have some real ups and downs early -- but at the end of the day we have the best coaching staff in America.

    It will be nice to have something good to watch after football season is over.

  11. #11
    I think we will probably "struggle" (by Duke standards) out of the gate. I also think this team needs to play that "alarmingly nonathletic" style of the 10 squad and if they do they could make a deep run in March (if they get a decent draw with matchups). However, defense still concerns me and without any evidence to the contrary I must assume that the problem largely remains unchanged.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by jcastranio View Post
    We will win the ACC, the ACC Tournament, and move to the Elite 8. I can't call it from there.
    I agree with these predictions, assuming no major injuries. Teams with three starting seniors tend to perform better than the pundits give them credit for.

    As with last season, defense will be the key. I'm assuming our D will get back to the Duke D to which we've become accustomed, but that remains to be proven, of course.

    With a veteran team, I expect we'll get through the early non-conference juggernaut with probably one loss, although neither zero losses nor two losses would surprise me all that much. I expect us to be the class of the ACC, much to the surprise and chagrin of the other triangle teams. I expect us to be a #1 seed, or maybe a #2. Despite dire DBR poster's predictions after tough road losses, I don't think we'll lose in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Once we've hit the 2nd weekend, though, you never know what will happen in the most unpredictable sporting event out there.

    I predict lots of arguing and gnashing of teeth here at DBR over the rotation. But by the end of the season, we're going to be down to our usual 7 man rotation, maybe 8 if we fans get lucky. I expect Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, Rasheed, and Tyler to be part of that rotation, so then it comes down to which of Marshall, Amile, and Josh becomes the 8th man, because the other two won't play much once January 1 rolls around. My guess is Amile emerges as the 8th man, but that's just a gut feel. Could be any of them. As far as the point guard "argument," I expect Tyler's minutes will dwindle town to around 10 mpg by the end of the season, but Tyler has always stymied my predictive powers, so you never know.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by CLW View Post
    However, defense still concerns me and without any evidence to the contrary I must assume that the problem largely remains unchanged.
    We have no proof, but we do have some evidence -- this year we should have a defensive minded perimeter player in our rotation and also have a 6'8 wing player for most of each game. While it's true that neither Rasheed nor Alex have played a game at Duke yet, Rasheed's defensive reputation and Alex's size are certainly evidence that our D will be improved over last year's. How much improved is still up for debate. Quinn's ability to guard someone (now that he is supposedly fully healthy) will probably be the key to that.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Asheville, NC
    I would like to see us improve overall as a team as the season progresses. I am especially interested in seeing us improve our perimeter defense, which I think has been mentioned. I don't think we improved that much from the beginning of last year to the end. That's one thing I missed...Now who's going to step up the most?

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greensboro, NC
    I won't be satisfied until Conner Vernon is named ACC Player of the Year and we secure a good bowl game... lol, I probably won't be into basketball for a while yet. But if Nike Horvoth is as improved as everyone says, we'll be really, really good!
    Man, if your Mom made you wear that color when you were a baby, and you're still wearing it, it's time to grow up!

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post

    I predict lots of arguing and gnashing of teeth here at DBR over the rotation. But by the end of the season, we're going to be down to our usual 7 man rotation, maybe 8 if we fans get lucky. I expect Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, Rasheed, and Tyler to be part of that rotation, so then it comes down to which of Marshall, Amile, and Josh becomes the 8th man, because the other two won't play much once January 1 rolls around. My guess is Amile emerges as the 8th man, but that's just a gut feel. Could be any of them. As far as the point guard "argument," I expect Tyler's minutes will dwindle town to around 10 mpg by the end of the season, but Tyler has always stymied my predictive powers, so you never know.
    I see this happening quite a bit as well. A solid 7 man rotation looks likely, though depending on how well Amile is able to fit in this could change. I think he could have the most trouble assimilating with the logjam of big experienced low post guys and the perimeter not being his strength at this time. If he can make an impact defensively, that is how he'll get his time.

    I do expect improvement on the defensive end but largely because of increased experience. I think we'll still have the same problems with small perimeter players and we really don't know how effective Quinn Cook will be here. K will not hesitate to pull him or take him out of the starting 5 in favor of Thornton if this becomes a problem. I could see Rasheed being plugged in to any one of 3 positions on the perimeter. I think he'll be mostly a backup role to any one of the 3.

    Mason and Ryan should be one of the more effective front court combos in the nation. Both are excellent passers, can score, rebound, and defend. These two should really free up the perimeter. I kind of feel like Murphy is going to fit in right away.

    I am concerned a little about a lack of team speed. There aren't exactly many 6-5 to 6-8 gazelles out there. It should be interesting to see what kind of pace we play and what suits us best. I think there are going to be certain teams we have trouble defending, UNC being one of them.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if our regular season win total is less than last year's despite actually being a better team. The ACC race is a tossup to me. But better conference competition will help us immensely in March.
    "Just be you. You is Enough."

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    I could care less about the regular season and barely more about the ACC Tournament except as those games affect NCAA seeding. I expect a National Championship, and anything else (30 win season, ACC championship, etc), mean nothing to me. NCAA title, or at least Final Four, or else I'll immediately launch into a March postmortem about how K's recruiting, his bench usage, his end of game slowdown, and the exhaustion of the starters doomed us.

  18. #18
    I expect about the same record through the regular season, with maybe a few more losses through the beginning of the season, but a stronger post-season showing. My honest attempt at objectivity thinks that we are an Elite 8 team. If things are better than that, then great, but that's what I'm expecting from the team this year. But with this kind of experience this squad has, you never know what can happen.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Something else to point out, we may not be a great 3pt shooting team this year. Other than Seth and Ryan, who else do we look to from deep? Rasheed and Alex are essentially unknowns in this dept, Quinn never showed a reliable shot from outside, and neither did Tyler outside of the state of Hawaii.

    Hopefully Ryan and Mason will create enough space of shooters.
    "Just be you. You is Enough."

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by jipops View Post
    Something else to point out, we may not be a great 3pt shooting team this year.
    This is a very good point and something I've been thinking about. Seth is going to take an awful lot of 3-pointers, at least early in the season. One key to our success is how well we'll take advantage of other teams gearing their defense to stopping Seth outside. If we just keep letting Seth jack 'em up and just hope he makes the more difficult shots through a double-team, we could be in for an unpleasant upset or two. If we take what the defense gives us and let Mason, Ryan, and Alex go wild inside (or let Quinn and Rasheed slash into the middle) when the other team focuses on Seth, we could be really hard to stop.

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