The Bowl Selection Vigil

[MattC09]

To steal a song from Manchester United fans: If the blue devils should play in Rome or Mandalay, I'll be there.

According to several bowl organizers, Duke is a fairly attractive option for selection because it's our first bowl in so long. I would love it if we ended up in Miami though...

[SCMatt33]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but I just realized that Duke winning the division is not an unreasonable proposition. If Duke beats Georgia Tech (even with losses to Clemson and FSU), and Va Tech loses to Miami and FSU, the Duke-Miami game to end the year will be for the division. It would pit 4-3 Duke against 5-2 Miami. Duke would have given Ga Tech it's fourth loss, and the two losses by Va Tech would give them four. Of coarse, UNC could be 5-3 or even 6-2 by that point, but there something about them being ineligible. Haven't really heard too much about it.

If Duke somehow won the division, that would guarantee us a bid in the Sun Bowl or better. That's still a long way away, but we only need 4 games to go our way for it to happen, Duke-Ga Tech, Duke-Miami, Va Tech-Miami, and FSU-Miami.

[uh_no]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but I just realized that Duke winning the division is not an unreasonable proposition. If Duke beats Georgia Tech (even with losses to Clemson and FSU), and Va Tech loses to Miami and FSU, the Duke-Miami game to end the year will be for the division. It would pit 4-3 Duke against 5-2 Miami. Duke would have given Ga Tech it's fourth loss, and the two losses by Va Tech would give them four. Of coarse, UNC could be 5-3 or even 6-2 by that point, but there something about them being ineligible. Haven't really heard too much about it.

If Duke somehow won the division, that would guarantee us a bid in the Sun Bowl or better. That's still a long way away, but we only need 4 games to go our way for it to happen, Duke-Ga Tech, Duke-Miami, Va Tech-Miami, and FSU-Miami.

or we could just win out and not worry about the other games

[OZZIE4DUKE]

i like Florida for my bowl games in December and January!

[Wander]

If Duke somehow won the division, that would guarantee us a bid in the Sun Bowl or better. That's still a long way away, but we only need 4 games to go our way for it to happen, Duke-Ga Tech, Duke-Miami, Va Tech-Miami, and FSU-Miami.

Not sure we even need that much. Virginia Tech would beat Duke in a head-to-head tiebreaker, but what if Miami and/or UNC were also sitting at 5-3? I'm not sure how the three-way tiebreakers are going to work with UNC being ineligible.

Amazing that we have a realistic shot at winning the division by going 2-2 in the last four games.

[Native]

Posted this on Scout as well - Russell Athletic Bowl likes us a lot. They've had officials at pretty much every home game handing out pins to students. I know they pick third so that could be awesome. Orlando's a nice destination!

[Olympic Fan]

Now that Duke is qualified, we can actually start wondering about where Duke will go bowling ...

Just for the record, this is th ACC bowllineup -- in order of their choices:

1. BCS (Orange unless there is a title game)
2. Chick-filA in Atlanta
3. Russell Athletic in Orlando
4. Sun Bowl in El Paso
5. Belk Bowl in Charlotte
6. Music City Bowl in Nashville
7. Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La.
8. Military Bowl

At the moment, three ACC teams are bowl eligible -- Duke, FSU and Clemson .. UNC ineligible and two other teams -- Boston College and Virginia -- are almost certainly out of the running. That leaves:

N.C. State -- 5 wins and likely wins against Virginia and BC and probably Wake Forest still ahead. They'll qualify.
Virginia Tech -- 4 wins and two tough games coming up (Miami and FSU), but they finish with BC and Virginia, so they should qualify
Wake Forest -- 4 wins and just one more clear win (vs. BC). They've got to find another win from Clemson, at NC State, at Notre Dame and Vanderbilt. Going to be tough.
Maryland -- 4 wins and just one more likely win (vs. BC), Can thget nther win out of Georgia Tech, at Clemson, FSU and at UNC? Like Wake, going to be tough
Miami -- 4 wins and just one more near certainty (at Virginia), but they should get at least one more from Virginia Tech at home, USF at home and at Duke. Probably going to make it
Georgia Tech -- 3 wins and no sure things, but a bunch of winnable games -- BYU at home this week, at Maryland,at UNC, Duke and Georgia. That Mayland-Georgia Tech game may decided the bowl fate for both teams

I feel relatively certain that N.C. State and Virginia Tech qualify to give us five bowl teams. Miami and Georgia Tech have a reasonable chance. Maryland and Wake might be in trouble.

I'd guess right now that seven ACC teams qualify -- which would leave the Military Bowl, which has already lost its host team in Army (at 1-6 they aren't going to make it), out in the cold.

Duke's ultmate location depends on whether Duke finishes 6-6 or 11-2 ...

At 6-6, Duke would be last in the pecking order - whether that's the Military Bowl or the Independence Bowl depends on how many teams the ACC gets qualfied. Heck, if BC or Virginia pull an upset or two and UNC keeps winning, Duke could move up to the Music City Bowl by default.

Keep in mind the ACC's one win rule -- bowls cannot pick a team more game worse in the ACC standings than he best available team. That means you can take a 4-4 ACC team over a 5-3 team, but you can't take a 3-5 team over a 5-3 team. There are bowls that really worry about how many fans a team brings (Charlotte is the best example) and bowls that don't expect a huge fan base and would prefer a good story (The Sun Bowl, for instance). Duke is not attractive for a bowl that wants a big fan base ... but Duke does have a good story -- it's first bowl since 1994!

[Reilly]

FSU 7-1, 4-1
Clemson 6-1, 3-1
Duke 6-2, 3-1

State 5-2, 2-1
UNC 5-3, 2-2 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters)
MD 4-3, 2-1

WFU 4-3, 2-3
Miami 4-4, 3-2
VT 4-4, 2-2

GT 3-4, 2-3
UVA 2-6, 0-4
BC 1-6, 0-4

[Reilly]

Is there any worst-case scenario in which Duke would not get a bowl bid?

That is, say we lose out and finish 6-6. Might there be 9 non-Carolina ACC teams with 6 wins ... and is there a shot for the Kraft SF bowl to fill its slot with Navy and the PAC 12 so they wouldn't be looking at the ACC -- meaning one of the 9 w/ 6 wins is at home?

I want to be in the top 8 with four others guaranteed to be ineligible ...

UNC's out.
BC and UVa need to pick up that 7th loss.
Then, we just need Wake or MD or Miami or VT or GT to get to 7 losses, too.

[ForkFondler]

I feel relatively certain that N.C. State and Virginia Tech qualify to give us five bowl teams. Miami and Georgia Tech have a reasonable chance. Maryland and Wake might be in trouble.

I don't like GT's chances at all. They need three more wins, and if they convert a possible win into an actual win, it will be for the first time this year. I think Maryland beats GT to become eligible./QUOTE]

[Reilly]

FSU 7-1, 4-1 [Duke, @VT, @MD, UF]
Clemson 6-1, 3-1 [@Wake, @Duke, MD, NCSU, South Carolina]
Duke 6-2, 3-1 [@FSU, Clemson, @GT, Miami]

State 5-2, 2-1 [@UNC, UVa, Wake, @Clemson, BC]
MD 4-3, 2-1 [@BC, GT, @Clemson, FSU, @UNC]
WFU 4-3, 2-3 [Clemson, BC, @NCSU, @ND, Vandy]

Miami 4-4, 3-2 [VT, @UVA, USF, @Duke]
VT 4-4, 2-2 [@Miami, FSU, @BC, UVa]
GT 3-4, 2-3 [BYU, @MD, @UNC, Duke, @UGA]

UVA 2-6, 0-4 [@NCSU, Miami, UNC, @VT]
BC 1-6, 0-4 [Maryland, @WFU, ND, VT, @NCSU]

----------------------

UNC 5-3, 2-2 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [NCSU, GT, @UVa, MD]

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Posted this on Scout as well - Russell Athletic Bowl likes us a lot. They've had officials at pretty much every home game handing out pins to students. I know they pick third so that could be awesome. Orlando's a nice destination!

Like I posted before, one of the Russell Athletic Bowl reps that has been here is not only a Duke grad (mid 80's), but a fraternity brother of mine. He personally would love Duke to be available for an Orlando visit! And I'll push for it as hard as I can!

[-bdbd]

As I posted on the Duke-UNC FB game string Sat. night after the game, here is what you need to know about the Bowl possibilities. Looks like we'll be bowling between Dec. 27th and Jan. 1 -- keep those dates free on your travel calendars!!

I say, at the next home game, we see the student section - if we are about to win - start tossing Oranges on the field...

BTW, for those not familliar with the Bowl selection process - perfectly understandable given our history - the Bowls get to pick who they want from the conference, once the BCS selection(s) take place. (Correct me if I am wrong if anyone thinks this has changed.) So, after the Orange gets the ACC champion (automatic), then the Chic Fil-a Bowl gets to pick WHOEVER they want, and isn't limited to the ACC runner-up. They often take the school that will bring the biggest fan base or TV audience to town, within reason on the different records. So typically a Clemson or a FSU or a VPI would get taken over a Duke team with the same record. (And big-fanbase-teams often do get picked before smaller schools even if the latter has a one win or two win better record.) All that to say, if FSU or Clemson were to win the ACC, then it seems likely that the other gets the Chic-Fil-A. Russell Athletic at #3 (and then Sun Bowl at #4) may be hard-pressed to ignore an in-state option in Miami or a big fanbase in NCSU or VPI. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. We'll know by early-Dec.


From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlanti...nce#Bowl_games


Order of selection for ACC bowl participants[23] Pick Name Location Opposing Conference Opposing Pick
1* Orange Bowl Miami Gardens, Florida BCS -
2 Chick-fil-A Bowl Atlanta, Georgia SEC 3/4/5
3 Russell Athletic Bowl Orlando, Florida Big East 2
4 Sun Bowl El Paso, Texas Pac-12 4
5 Belk Bowl Charlotte, North Carolina Big East 3
6 Music City Bowl Nashville, Tennessee SEC 7/8
7 Independence Bowl Shreveport, Louisiana SEC 10
8 Military Bowl Washington, D.C. Army 2012, Big 12 2013 -
9** Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl San Francisco, California Pac-12, WAC, Army, or Navy -

Complete Bowl schedule:
http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/coll...l-schedule.php


2012-13 College Football Bowl Schedule
Bowl Location Date/Time TV Tickets
Gildan New Mexico
MWC #4 vs. Pac-12 #7 Albuquerque, NM
University Stadium Sat., Dec. 15
1:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Famous Idaho Potato
WAC #1-2 vs. MAC #3 Boise, ID
Bronco Stadium Sat., Dec. 15
4:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
San Diego County CU Poinsettia
BYU vs. MWC #2 San Diego, CA
Qualcomm Stadium Thu., Dec. 20
8:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Beef 'O' Brady's
Big East #6 vs. C-USA #4 St. Petersburg, FL
Tropicana Field Fri., Dec. 21
7:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
R+L Carriers New Orleans
Sun Belt #1 vs. C-USA #6 New Orleans, LA
Mercedes-Benz Superdome Sat., Dec. 22
12:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas
MWC #1 vs. Pac-12 #5 Las Vegas, NV
Sam Boyd Stadium Sat., Dec. 22
3:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Sheraton Hawaii
C-USA #2 vs. MWC #5 Honolulu, HI
Aloha Stadium Mon., Dec. 24
8:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Little Caesars Pizza
Big Ten #8 vs. MAC #2 Detroit, MI
Ford Field Wed., Dec. 26
7:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Military
Army vs. ACC #8 Washington, DC
RFK Stadium Thu., Dec. 27
3:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Belk
ACC #5 vs. Big East #3 Charlotte, NC
Bank of America Stadium Thu., Dec. 27
6:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Bridgepoint Education Holiday
Pac-12 #3 vs. Big 12 #5 San Diego, CA
Qualcomm Stadium Thu., Dec. 27
9:45 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
AdvoCare V100 Independence
ACC #7 vs. SEC Shreveport, LA
Independence Stadium Fri., Dec. 28
2:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Russell Athletic
Big East #2 vs. ACC #3 Orlando, FL
Florida Citrus Bowl Fri., Dec. 28
5:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Big 12 #6 vs. Big Ten #6 Houston, TX
Reliant Stadium Fri., Dec. 28
9:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
C-USA #3 vs. MWC #4-5 Fort Worth, TX
Amon G. Carter Stadium Sat., Dec. 29
11:45 a.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Kraft Fight Hunger
Navy vs. Pac-12 #6 San Francisco, CA
AT&T Park Sat., Dec. 29
3:15 p.m. ET ESPN/2 Buy
Tickets
New Era Pinstripe
Big 12 #7 vs. Big East #4 Bronx, NY
Yankee Stadium Sat., Dec. 29
3:15 p.m. ET ESPN/2 Buy
Tickets
Valero Alamo
Pac-12 #2 vs. Big 12 #3 San Antonio, TX
Alamodome Sat., Dec. 29
6:45 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Buffalo Wild Wings
Big 12 #4 vs. Big Ten #4-5 Tempe, AZ
Sun Devil Stadium Sat., Dec. 29
10:15 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Franklin Amer. Mort. Music City
ACC #6 vs. SEC #7 Nashville, TN
LP Field Mon., Dec. 31
12:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Hyundai Sun
ACC #4 vs. Pac-12 #4 El Paso, TX
Sun Bowl Mon., Dec. 31 2:00 p.m. ET CBS Buy
Tickets
AutoZone Liberty
C-USA #1 vs. Big East #5/SEC #8-9 Memphis, TN
Liberty Bowl Mon., Dec. 31 3:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Chick-fil-A
ACC #2 vs. SEC #5 Atlanta, GA
Georgia Dome Mon., Dec. 31
7:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Heart of Dallas
Big Ten #7 vs. Big 12 Dallas, TX
Cotton Bowl Tue., Jan. 1
12:00 p.m. ET ESPNU Buy
Tickets
TaxSlayer.com Gator
Big Ten #4-5 vs. SEC #6 Jacksonville, FL
EverBank Field Tue., Jan. 1
12:00 p.m. ET ESPN2 Buy
Tickets
Capital One
Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2 Orlando, FL
Florida Citrus Bowl Tue., Jan. 1
1:00 p.m. ET TBA Buy
Tickets
Outback
Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3-4 Tampa, FL
Raymond James Stadium Tue., Jan. 1
1:00 p.m. ET TBA Buy
Tickets
Rose Bowl Game
BCS Big Ten #1 vs. BCS Pac-12 #1 Pasadena, CA
Rose Bowl Tue., Jan. 1
5:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Discover Orange
BCS/ACC #1 vs. BCS At-Large Miami Gardens, FL
Sun Life Stadium Tue., Jan. 1
8:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Allstate Sugar
BCS/SEC #1 vs. BCS At-Large New Orleans, LA
Mercedes-Benz Superdome Wed., Jan. 2
8:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
Tostitos Fiesta
BCS/Big 12 #1 vs. BCS At-Large Glendale, AZ
U. of Phoenix Stadium Thu., Jan. 3
8:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
AT&T Cotton
Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3-4 Arlington, TX
Cowboys Stadium Fri., Jan. 4
8:00 p.m. ET FOX Buy
Tickets
BBVA Compass
SEC #8-9 vs. Big East #5/C-USA Birmingham, AL
Legion Field Sat., Jan. 5
1:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
GoDaddy.com
MAC #1 vs. Sun Belt #2 Mobile, AL
Ladd-Peebles Stadium Sun., Jan. 6
9:00 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets
BCS National Championship
BCS #1 vs. BCS #2 Miami Gardens, FL
Sun Life Stadium Mon., Jan. 7
8:30 p.m. ET ESPN Buy
Tickets

[jimsumner]

Is there any worst-case scenario in which Duke would not get a bowl bid?

That is, say we lose out and finish 6-6. Might there be 9 non-Carolina ACC teams with 6 wins ... and is there a shot for the Kraft SF bowl to fill its slot with Navy and the PAC 12 so they wouldn't be looking at the ACC -- meaning one of the 9 w/ 6 wins is at home?

I want to be in the top 8 with four others guaranteed to be ineligible ...

UNC's out.
BC and UVa need to pick up that 7th loss.
Then, we just need Wake or MD or Miami or VT or GT to get to 7 losses, too.

Mathematically possible, I suppose, but highly unlikely.

Let's look at Maryland. They likely beat BC to get to five. But the rest of their schedule is GT, Clemson, FSU and UNC. Good chance they lose all of them.

If they somehow beat GT, then that seriously hurts Tech's chances to get to six with a schedule that includes BYU, UNC, Duke and Georgia. How many of those are they going to win?

Wake is in the same boat as Maryland. BC projects as a fifth win but Clemson, NC State, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt don't. They do get Vandy at home to end the season, so there's a chance there.

Miami needs two and should beat Virginia and South Florida.

State would have to collapse. Likewise, VT.

I think there's some real concern that the ACC won't even get to eight.

I also think it highly unlikely that Duke finishes 6-6. I think GT and Miami are very, very winnable. And even at 6-6, Duke would almost certainly get the nod over a 6-6 Wake team and likely a 6-6 Maryland team. There is a real novelty factor at work here that makes Duke an attractive option.

[-bdbd]

(On a 6-6 Duke team getting left out.) Mathematically possible, I suppose, but highly unlikely.

Let's look at Maryland. They likely beat BC to get to five. But the rest of their schedule is GT, Clemson, FSU and UNC. Good chance they lose all of them. If they somehow beat GT, then that seriously hurts Tech's chances to get to six with a schedule that includes BYU, UNC, Duke and Georgia. How many of those are they going to win?

Wake is in the same boat as Maryland. BC projects as a fifth win but Clemson, NC State, Notre Dame and Vanderbilt don't. They do get Vandy at home to end the season, so there's a chance there.

Miami needs two and should beat Virginia and South Florida.

State would have to collapse. Likewise, VT. I think there's some real concern that the ACC won't even get to eight.

I also think it highly unlikely that Duke finishes 6-6. I think GT and Miami are very, very winnable. And even at 6-6, Duke would almost certainly get the nod over a 6-6 Wake team and likely a 6-6 Maryland team. There is a real novelty factor at work here that makes Duke an attractive option.

Very good summary Jim. I agree across the board. For reference, to my recollection the BEST the ACC has ever done was 9 qualifying teams, and that was very unusual. 7-8 is normal. What I worry more about is a 7-5 Duke team getting bypassed for a bowl in favor of a 6-6 Ga Tech or Miami or VPI. It seems to me we may reasonably look for being around the 5th - 7th ACC selection if we were to end up at 7-5. Of course I'm hoping for better, as Miami is lovely in early January!!
(but Charlotte or Nashville are not bad either!)

[sporthenry]

Very good summary Jim. I agree across the board. For reference, to my recollection the BEST the ACC has ever done was 9 qualifying teams, and that was very unusual. 7-8 is normal. What I worry more about is a 7-5 Duke team getting bypassed for a bowl in favor of a 6-6 Ga Tech or Miami or VPI. It seems to me we may reasonably look for being around the 5th - 7th ACC selection if we were to end up at 7-5. Of course I'm hoping for better, as Miami is lovely in early January!!
(but Charlotte or Nashville are not bad either!)

I can't see Duke being passed up. Sure Va. Tech has the size and alumni base but other than that, Duke is a great story. Did you see those pictures of Miami's stadium when it was mostly empty? And I doubt Va. Tech fans are going to be lining up for the Music City Bowl when they are used to BCS bowls.

Duke is a great story, some bowl will look to capitalize on it and if they can pit them against a team like Vandy, it would make for an academic bowl of sorts. If anything, I think Duke could pass over a 7-5 ACC team and Duke might be a trendy pick for a bowl.

[Dukehky]

I don't wanna have to go to Shreveport...

[loran16]

Very good summary Jim. I agree across the board. For reference, to my recollection the BEST the ACC has ever done was 9 qualifying teams, and that was very unusual. 7-8 is normal. What I worry more about is a 7-5 Duke team getting bypassed for a bowl in favor of a 6-6 Ga Tech or Miami or VPI. It seems to me we may reasonably look for being around the 5th - 7th ACC selection if we were to end up at 7-5. Of course I'm hoping for better, as Miami is lovely in early January!!
(but Charlotte or Nashville are not bad either!)

Actually the ACC had 10 teams qualify in 2008, with UVA going 5-7 and Duke going 4-8 (Hell of a season). But that was a freak season.

[DukeSean]

I don't wanna have to go to Shreveport...

LOL. Shreveport is my only hope of physically going to the bowl game. 2 weeks before schedule baby due date, I gotta be within driving distance of home. Already got the OK from wifey

[wilson]

I've seen at least one updated set of bowl projections today that has us in the Sun Bowl, in El Paso. To me, that's the nightmare scenario. Any of the other possibilities, I'm there, no questions asked. But I highly doubt if I can get to the westernmost corner of Texas on New Year's Eve. Sun Bowl organizers even generally admit that they don't care much about in-person attendance, so that's another worry. I really hope they don't pick us.