How dare you miss one! Although to msdukie's good point, it's hard knowing that I am rooting for us to do well so that we will be in a bowl game that I can't get to. I'm still pulling for the victories, but I've waited (as have the rest of you) so long to go bowling that it will suck to not be there to see us play.
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
I think there's a lot of this.
We all want to win out.
Most of us would prefer to play in Charlotte for personal reasons.
Unfortunately, these are mutually exclusive outcomes. So my advice: Root for the Devils, enjoy the ride, and let the chips fall where they fall.
If you believe some bowl destination is too far or too expensive or too much of a time crunch ...
... look to Reynolds Price: "You will only regret your economies."
http://today.duke.edu/showcase/reyno...nterviews.html
DUKE IS BOWLING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fight, Fight Blue Devils .......
FSU 10-1, 7-1 [UF]
Clemson 10-1, 7-1 [South Carolina]
GT 6-5, 5-3 [@UGA]
Miami 6-5, 4-3 [@Duke]
State 6-5, 3-4 [BC]
Duke 6-5, 3-4 [Miami]
VT 5-6, 3-4 [UVa]
WFU 5-6, 3-5 [Vandy]
----------------------
MD 4-7, 2-5 [@UNC]
UVA 4-7, 2-5 [@VT]
BC 2-8, 1-6 [@NCSU]
UNC 7-4, 4-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [MD]
We got a small break today -- Louisiana Tech, which was in the running to steal a BCS spot (and knovk Clemson down to the Chick-fil-A Bowl), lost in OT to Utah State.
That almost guarantees that Clemson wins a BCS spot by beating South Carolina next week in the real Death Valley.
That leaves the ACC bowls choosing: 6-5 NC State, 6-5 Duke, 6-5 Miami (if they don't self-penalize ... we should know later tonight or tomorrow) and maybe 5-6 Virginia Tech (they have to beat Virginia). 5-6 Wake could do it if they upset Vanerbilt.
That means that while the Duke-Miami game no longer has championship implications for the Devils, it still could go a long way towards determing which bowl Duke gets. With a victory over Miami, it's not impossible that Duke would get the Chick-fil-A Bowl ... ther only other viable choice would be a 7-5 NC State (assuming State beats BC next week, which I think is likely).
I think we likely will not be in Atlanta. If FSU and Clemson go to BCS bowl games and VT becomes bowl eligible, that would leave GT and VT as viable options for the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (remember, if a team does not select the top remaining team, the team they pick only has to be within one conference win of the top remaining team, which VT would be). Our hope at this point is that the Coastal representative (GT or Miami) is not selected by the CFA or the Russell Athletic Bowl because they would then be automatically slotted into the Sun Bowl. This would then free the Belk Bowl, with the 5th pick, to choose between NC State and us, which would be a dream scenario for them either way. The other team would be in Nashville on New Year's Eve, which also ain't half bad!
Georgia Tech is 6-5 and they are going to lose to Georgia next week to finish 6-6.
If Duke beats Miami to give Tech the Coastal title, they'll go to Charlotte and get killed by FSU.
Georgia Tech will be 6-7. I think they would get an NCAA waiver to be bowl eligible, but I don't think they will be that attractive to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Nothing is a lock, but I think 7-5 Duke, coming off a win over Miami might be more attactive.
Virginia Tech needs to beat Virginia to get to 6-6 and become bowl eligible. After their performance today -- having to go OT to beat BC (and having to kick a last second field goal in regulation to get to OT), I don't think that's a lock.
I know about the 1-win rule (which only applies to conference records, not overall) and with Duke finishing -- at best -- 4-4, that's not going to force any bowl to take us (no 2-6 ACC team will be eligible).
I'm just talking bowl options IF (and I know it's a big IF) Duke beats Miami.
Duke would be 7-5 ... NC State would be 7-5.
Georgia Tech would be 6-6 and facing a seventh loss in Charlotte. Miami would be 6-6, coming off a loss to Duke. Virginia Tech would either be 5-7 and not eligible or 6-6 and barely eligible (had a bowl scout tell me the other day that the Hokies have been so bad this year that their fans are not expected to travel with them like they usually do).
Under that scenario, I THINK the Atlanta bowl would normally pick NC State since they used to travel well to Atlanta. But there's a complication -- NC State opened the season in Atlanta against Tennessee and the same people who administer the bowl sold tickets for that game -- and the NC State fan base almost totally stiffed them (the worst sales of any team they've had one one of those early showcase games). Will that play into their thinking?
Again, not saying it's a lock, but a 7-5 Duke could very well get the Chick-fil-A bid ...
At 6-6, we'd be lucky to get Charlotte.
Am I wrong in thinking that bowls can't pick a team with a waiver if a qualifying team with a winning record is available, and that they must go through the waivers in order after that? Probably, but I thought I remembered seeing that earlier this season.
I'm thinking most likely that 6-6 sends us to Nashville, and 7-5 puts us in Charlotte, but obviously external factors impact that. Namely, does Miami self-deselect, and does Clemson get a BCS birth (go Tigers!). I also am thinking we'd be rash to quickly dismiss the attractiveness of the hometown GaTech to the Chick-Fil-A, which is coming on strong in the late-season, even if 6-7. After all, they could be justified as "the ACC runner-up." There's just no way GT brings fewer fans to an ATLANTA bowl game than Duke. If Clemson gets a BCS bid - some things happened today to both help and hurt that prospect (positive - Clemson wins big and 2-loss LSU barely survives at home vs weak opponent; negative - Stanford winning at Oregon and OK winning at WV) - then I see most likely NCSU or GT in Atlanta, Miami in Orlando (Russell), then El Paso gets the other of the NCSU/GT pair. If I'm the Belk bowl, I might be tempted to take VPI, which would be finishing on a win streak and has a big FB fanbase, albeit discouraged this year....but in the end I probably settle on in-State Duke. Thate relegates VPI to Nashville. Of course, Miami self-deselecting would essentially move all of those teams up a slot.
I don't know if that is true. At least I've not seen it quoted (from ACC bylaws) by anyone to date. But I think you are thinking about TWO SEPARATE DECISION-MAKING BODIES. First the NCAA would have to provide the waiver on 6-7 eligibility, then you'd have to refer to the ACC arrangements/bylaws with the Bowl committees. I doubt that the NCAA would want to control which teams a particular bowl is going to choose (other than simple eligibility -- y/n).
Last edited by -bdbd; 11-18-2012 at 01:44 AM.
The LSU close game is unimportant. 6 of the top 10 BCS schools are from the SEC. They will get two BCS slots. With 6 AQ spots, one extra for the SEC, and one for ND, there are two left for everybody else to fight over. La Tech losing today means no team from a non-AQ conference will get one this year. Big Ten and Big East are out of the running as the only possible top 14 team from those two is Nebraska and they will fall out of the top 14 if they lose the B10 champ game. So it's down to the P12, B12, and ACC for the last two spots.
Stanford beating Oregon today makes it likely the P12 gets two. If Stanford beats UCLA or Oregon loses to OSU next week, then
Stanford is in the P12 champ game and will play UCLA two weeks in a row. Oregon would almost certainly get a 2nd BCS slot for the P12, even with a loss at OSU.
If Clemson wins over South Carolina, then they will be in position to get the last spot. Whether they get it will all depend on what happens in the B12. If OK wins out over OKSt and TCU or Texas beats KSU, then there will be two B12 teams in the top 14 and it would depend on which bowl is picking last and next to last. If OK wins out AND TX beats KSU, then OK gets the auto bid and KSU might knock Clemson out. If OK loses another game and KSU beats Texas, it's possible the B12 has only KSU in the top 14 and Clemson is a lock.
What is also important is the order the BCS bowls pick.
The 1st to pick is any bowl that loses a AQ team to the NCG. As it stands right now, this will likely be the Sugar Bowl as the NCG is looking to be ND against the SEC champ. So the Sugar Bowl probably picks the 2nd SEC team.
After that, the order is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. Fiesta will not pick a B12 team and will probably take Oregon. Then it is down to the Sugar. If they take the BE champ, then it's down to the Orange and they will not pick Clemson to play FSU a second time. However, it is more likely the Sugar will not want the BE champ and they will get shuffled off to the Orange. So it will be up to the Sugar whether they want Clemson or a B12 team.
The other very interesting topic is whether 70 teams get bowl eligible. After today, there are 63 teams eligible. There are 15 teams left that can become bowl eligible. Of these, only 5 are really probable for being eligible. Two are very unlikely to become eligible, and the other 8 are iffy.
Probable:
VT
WVU
Mich St
Purdue
Rice
Iffy:
WFU
Baylor
Marshall
SMU
Central Mich - will probably be 6-6, but might have 2 FCS class wins
Miss
MO
Troy
Unlikely:
Pitt
UConn
I wouldn't be so quick to write off Georgia Tech against either team. They're playing well, and the SEC actually hasn't looked all that impressive in their recent non-conference games. They're obviously still an underdog, but if Georgia Southern, Wofford, and Louisiana-Lafayette can put up a good fight against these top SEC East teams, then Georgia Tech can too.
Something tells me that Clemson will lose that face off every time. The Sugar Bowl is about to start a contract with the B12. I don't think they want to reward that conference by snubbing them for an ACC team. I think when we look back (assuming Clemson beats South Carolina), we'll see that Oregon losing will have kept them it of the BCS picture.