The Bowl Selection Vigil

[loran16]

is duke still in play for the ACC championship game? what needs to happen (besides beating gt and um) for us to win the division?

Either FSU beats VT or UM beats Virginia (assuming UM is not waiving eligibility).

[BigWayne]

Either FSU beats VT or UM beats Virginia (assuming UM is not waiving eligibility).

No matter if UM bails out, if VT beats FSU, we need Miami to be at 5-3 to make a 3 way tie where we win the tiebreaker over VT. If Miami is at 4-4 and Duke and VT are tied at 5-3, VT wins the tiebreak. Apparently, according to communication with the ACC office discussed up above in the UNC case, probation teams are included in tiebreaking calculations. Of course, we have to take care of business and beat GT and Miami.

[SCMatt33]

Here's a weird (and plausible) scenario. Let's say that Duke beats Gtech and loses to Miami. Miami wins out, going 6-2 in conference, but self imposes a ban. Meanwhile, Va Tech goes as expected and finishes at 6-6 (4-4). They would then either win a two way tiebreaker with Duke (or three-way with Duke and Gtech) and go to the ACC title game. As expected, they lose to FSU in the title game and go 6-7. Technically, they would be under .500 and not bowl eligible, but with the shortage of teams, they would be one of the few to qualify as a provisional bowl team.

Does Virginia Tech in this scenario still get treated like any other bowl eligible team and can be picked by an ACC bowl so long as they are within one game of them? Do they still fall under the provision that prevents the ACC title game loser from not falling lower than the Sun Bowl? Or do they have to wait and be picked after every fully eligible bowl team is selected, regardless of conference, and end up in some non-ACC bowl that just needs a team for the game to be played?

If they fall out of the ACC bowl picture entirely and have to wait for a leftover bowl, it's plausible with Miami banning themselves, Clemson making a BCS game, and Wake and Gtech falling short of 6 wins, that the ACC would only be able to fill down to the Russell Athletic bowl, with Duke and NC State being the only teams from the ACC that can be picked by an ACC bowl game. That would be quite weird.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Bob Green has a good write up on why we (as fans, not the team) shouldn't be afraid of playing in the championship game.

What's the worst possible outcome? We lose! Any Duke Football fan worth their salt isn't afraid of losing.

http://crazietalk.net/2/post/2012/11...the-acccg.html

[BigWayne]

Here's a weird (and plausible) scenario. Let's say that Duke beats Gtech and loses to Miami. Miami wins out, going 6-2 in conference, but self imposes a ban. Meanwhile, Va Tech goes as expected and finishes at 6-6 (4-4). They would then either win a two way tiebreaker with Duke (or three-way with Duke and Gtech) and go to the ACC title game. As expected, they lose to FSU in the title game and go 6-7. Technically, they would be under .500 and not bowl eligible, but with the shortage of teams, they would be one of the few to qualify as a provisional bowl team.

Does Virginia Tech in this scenario still get treated like any other bowl eligible team and can be picked by an ACC bowl so long as they are within one game of them? Do they still fall under the provision that prevents the ACC title game loser from not falling lower than the Sun Bowl? Or do they have to wait and be picked after every fully eligible bowl team is selected, regardless of conference, and end up in some non-ACC bowl that just needs a team for the game to be played?

If they fall out of the ACC bowl picture entirely and have to wait for a leftover bowl, it's plausible with Miami banning themselves, Clemson making a BCS game, and Wake and Gtech falling short of 6 wins, that the ACC would only be able to fill down to the Russell Athletic bowl, with Duke and NC State being the only teams from the ACC that can be picked by an ACC bowl game. That would be quite weird.

Based on the wording on the page linked below, VT could have to wait like you said.
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/...e+of+shortfall
Pertinent wording:
Under the process approved Thursday, if a bowl has one or more conferences/teams unable to meet their contractual commitments and there are no available bowl-eligible teams, the open spots can be filled – by the bowl sponsoring agencies – as follows:
...then it runs through the #1-6 scenarios.

However, since there is no consolidated bowl picking order outside of individual conference selections and the BCS bowls, it all depends on which bowl acts first. What I would see happening is that each conference has to go through its contractual commitments in order with normal bowl eligible teams from in conference. Then you will have a situation with some number of bowls with unfulfilled slots and some number of bowl eligible teams from conferences that have more eligible teams than contracts (Sun Belt, MAC). If the number of empty slots is less than the number of free agent eligible teams, then you will have a sort of liar's poker game if there is an attractive team on the provisional list. In the case you mention with VT, it could be really ugly if a less desirable team is sitting there on qualifier #1 or 2.

What will be really interesting is if we end up with 69 eligible teams, including the provisional qualifiers. Which bowl will get screwed? Will the NCAA pass some emergency rule to make another team eligible, say the 5-7 team with the best APR?

[OZZIE4DUKE]

is duke still in play for the ACC championship game? what needs to happen (besides beating gt and um) for us to win the division?

fsu beats VT I believe

Other than THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?

Seriously, if we take care of our business the next two games, I think FSU will take care of VT for us, and we'll know soon enough.

Let's Go Duke! GTHc! 9F!

[Olympic Fan]

Other than THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?

Seriously, if we take care of our business the next two games, I think FSU will take care of VT for us, and we'll know soon enough.

Let's Go Duke! GTHc! 9F!

While FSU beating Va Tech would mean that we have our fate in our hands, Va Tech winning tonight doesn't kill Duke's chances.

If Miami beats Virginia Saturday, then loses loses to Duke , then even if VPI wins out, there would be a three-way tie between Duke-Miami-Va Tech at 5-3. In that scenario, the head-to-head tiebreaker would be even (all three would be 1-1) and Duke would have the best division record (4-1 ... Miami and VPI would be 3-2). If UNC somehow loses one of its last three and is in the 5-3 tiebreaker that helps Duke -- Duke and UNC would be 2-1 in the head to head; Miami and VPI would be 1-2 ...

Basically, our fate is in our hands. we DO have to beat Georgia Tech and Miami.

But if we do that, the only way would not be in the title game would be in VPI beats FSU and wins out AND Miami also loses at Virginia.

[BigWayne]

While FSU beating Va Tech would mean that we have our fate in our hands, Va Tech winning tonight doesn't kill Duke's chances.

If Miami beats Virginia Saturday, then loses loses to Duke , then even if VPI wins out, there would be a three-way tie between Duke-Miami-Va Tech at 5-3. In that scenario, the head-to-head tiebreaker would be even (all three would be 1-1) and Duke would have the best division record (4-1 ... Miami and VPI would be 3-2). If UNC somehow loses one of its last three and is in the 5-3 tiebreaker that helps Duke -- Duke and UNC would be 2-1 in the head to head; Miami and VPI would be 1-2 ...

Basically, our fate is in our hands. we DO have to beat Georgia Tech and Miami.

But if we do that, the only way would not be in the title game would be in VPI beats FSU and wins out AND Miami also loses at Virginia.

You are correct. This was covered in the separate ACC championship vigil thread.

[Reilly]

FSU 9-1, 6-1 [@MD, UF]
Clemson 8-1, 5-1 [MD, NCSU, South Carolina]
Duke 6-4, 3-3 [@GT, Miami]

Miami 5-4, 4-2 [@UVA, USF, @Duke]
State 5-4, 2-3 [Wake, @Clemson, BC]
WFU 5-4, 3-4 [@NCSU, @ND, Vandy]

GT 4-5, 3-3 [@UNC, Duke, @UGA]
MD 4-5, 2-3 [@Clemson, FSU, @UNC]
VT 4-6, 2-4 [@BC, UVa]

UVA 3-6, 1-4 [Miami, UNC, @VT]

----------------------

BC 2-7, 1-5 [ND, VT, @NCSU]
UNC 6-3, 3-2 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [GT, @UVa, MD]
*Either VT or UVa will not be bowling, as both have 6 losses, and must play each other
[This space reserved for Maryland]

... provided MD stumbles as expected, the max bowl-eligibile the ACC will have is 8, and there are 8 tie-ins ... Duke is semi-officially IN!

[blazindw]

Based on the wording on the page linked below, VT could have to wait like you said.
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/...e+of+shortfall
Pertinent wording:
Under the process approved Thursday, if a bowl has one or more conferences/teams unable to meet their contractual commitments and there are no available bowl-eligible teams, the open spots can be filled – by the bowl sponsoring agencies – as follows:
...then it runs through the #1-6 scenarios.

However, since there is no consolidated bowl picking order outside of individual conference selections and the BCS bowls, it all depends on which bowl acts first. What I would see happening is that each conference has to go through its contractual commitments in order with normal bowl eligible teams from in conference. Then you will have a situation with some number of bowls with unfulfilled slots and some number of bowl eligible teams from conferences that have more eligible teams than contracts (Sun Belt, MAC). If the number of empty slots is less than the number of free agent eligible teams, then you will have a sort of liar's poker game if there is an attractive team on the provisional list. In the case you mention with VT, it could be really ugly if a less desirable team is sitting there on qualifier #1 or 2.

What will be really interesting is if we end up with 69 eligible teams, including the provisional qualifiers. Which bowl will get screwed? Will the NCAA pass some emergency rule to make another team eligible, say the 5-7 team with the best APR?

They would then be able to appeal. Last year, USC was ineligible for the Pac 12 title but finished first in their division. 2nd place was UCLA at 6-6. They petitioned the NCAA (before the title game where they faced Oregon) to be declared bowl eligible because they weren't SUPPOSED to play in the title game and if they hadn't, they would have been bowl eligible. The NCAA granted that request (basically to allow the Pac 12 to fulfill their bowl commitments) and UCLA, despite losing to Oregon and finishing 6-7, played in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.

I would imagine, given last year's precedent, Virginia Tech would also be allowed to go to a bowl at 6-7 under similar circumstances.

[BigWayne]

They would then be able to appeal. Last year, USC was ineligible for the Pac 12 title but finished first in their division. 2nd place was UCLA at 6-6. They petitioned the NCAA (before the title game where they faced Oregon) to be declared bowl eligible because they weren't SUPPOSED to play in the title game and if they hadn't, they would have been bowl eligible. The NCAA granted that request (basically to allow the Pac 12 to fulfill their bowl commitments) and UCLA, despite losing to Oregon and finishing 6-7, played in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.

I would imagine, given last year's precedent, Virginia Tech would also be allowed to go to a bowl at 6-7 under similar circumstances.

#3 in the new rules has been called the UCLA rule. However, the way it is put in there, it is not exactly the same deal as it requires that there be no more bowl eligible teams available before kicking in. VT and the ACC could ask for a waiver of the way the new rule is written so they could get the same treatment UCLA did last year. It all depends on how many teams end up being eligible. If UCLA had been required to go through the new rule last year, they would not have become bowl eligible as there were two teams that were eligible in the normal way that did not go to a bowl.

This will be very interesting if VT qualifies for the ACC title game as they could be faced with a chance to go to the Orange Bowl with a win vs. no bowl with a loss. After the close loss to FSU last night, they will certainly think they could prevail given a second chance.

[ForkFondler]

Bob Green has a good write up on why we (as fans, not the team) shouldn't be afraid of playing in the championship game.


http://crazietalk.net/2/post/2012/11...the-acccg.html

If Duke wins their last two games, then it's on. But I will not be happy if we stumble into Charlotte with a 4-4 conference record. Frankly, I'd rather have the winning season record.

[SCMatt33]

#3 in the new rules has been called the UCLA rule. However, the way it is put in there, it is not exactly the same deal as it requires that there be no more bowl eligible teams available before kicking in. VT and the ACC could ask for a waiver of the way the new rule is written so they could get the same treatment UCLA did last year. It all depends on how many teams end up being eligible. If UCLA had been required to go through the new rule last year, they would not have become bowl eligible as there were two teams that were eligible in the normal way that did not go to a bowl.

This will be very interesting if VT qualifies for the ACC title game as they could be faced with a chance to go to the Orange Bowl with a win vs. no bowl with a loss. After the close loss to FSU last night, they will certainly think they could prevail given a second chance.

I don't know if the information is really out there at all, but my original question remains. I think that even at 6-7, it is highly likely that Va Tech would make a bowl as a provisional team, but the question is whether a bowl can take them over a regularly eligible team (specifically Duke), or do they have to wait until all regularly eligible teams are picked and then play against some sun belt team in a random place because that was the bowl that couldn't get anyone else even if there are bowls with ACC contracts that want to take them before another randomly available team? Also, how does the ACC rule about not letting the title game loser fall below the Sun Bowl (3rd non BCS pick after Atlanta and Orlando) come into play?

[BigWayne]

I don't know if the information is really out there at all, but my original question remains. I think that even at 6-7, it is highly likely that Va Tech would make a bowl as a provisional team, but the question is whether a bowl can take them over a regularly eligible team (specifically Duke), or do they have to wait until all regularly eligible teams are picked and then play against some sun belt team in a random place because that was the bowl that couldn't get anyone else even if there are bowls with ACC contracts that want to take them before another randomly available team? Also, how does the ACC rule about not letting the title game loser fall below the Sun Bowl (3rd non BCS pick after Atlanta and Orlando) come into play?

All the contracts and orders are based on bowl-eligible teams. A 6-7 team is not eligible unless they get a waiver like UCLA did or they qualify under the new provisional eligibility rules. If there are 70 eligible teams without the provisional rules kicking in, a 6-7 team would have to get a waiver like UCLA did and an otherwise eligible team gets screwed. I think the NCAA wrote themselves into a pickle unless they purposely set it up this way because they were peeved UCLA got in while Western Kentucky (7–5) and Ball State (6-6) got screwed last year.

If there are 69 eligible teams and VT qualifies as the 70th team through the provisional rules, I think there are no set rules about which bowl picks first/last and gets VT. The only hindrance related to that is the clause that an individual bowl can only use a provisional team once every 4 years, which for this year is unimportant as it is the 1st year of the rule.

[Reilly]

FSU 9-1, 6-1 [@MD, UF]
Clemson 8-1, 5-1 [MD, NCSU, South Carolina]
Duke 6-4, 3-3 [@GT, Miami]

State 5-4, 2-3 [Wake, @Clemson, BC]
WFU 5-4, 3-4 [@NCSU, @ND, Vandy]
GT 5-5, 4-3 [Duke, @UGA]

Miami 5-5, 4-3 [USF, @Duke]
MD 4-5, 2-3 [@Clemson, FSU, @UNC]
VT 4-6, 2-4 [@BC, UVa]

UVA 4-6, 2-4 [UNC, @VT]

----------------------

BC 2-7, 1-5 [ND, VT, @NCSU]
UNC 6-4, 3-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [@UVa, MD]

[Reilly]

FSU 9-1, 6-1 [@MD, UF]
Clemson 9-1, 6-1 [NCSU, South Carolina]
State 6-4, 3-3 [@Clemson, BC]

Duke 6-4, 3-3 [@GT, Miami]
GT 5-5, 4-3 [Duke, @UGA]
Miami 5-5, 4-3 [USF, @Duke]

WFU 5-5, 3-5 [@ND, Vandy]
VT 4-6, 2-4 [@BC, UVa]
UVA 4-6, 2-4 [UNC, @VT]

MD 4-6, 2-4 [FSU, @UNC]

----------------------

BC 2-7, 1-5 [ND, VT, @NCSU]
UNC 6-4, 3-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [@UVa, MD]

[BigWayne]

After today's events, VT cannot win the coastal and be 6-6 facing the UCLA dilemma, but GT can.

Also, total bowl eligible teams is still tracking with a good chance to come in short of 70 teams.
Marshall losing in a mild upset today has a good chance of knocking them out of the picture.

[Reilly]

FSU 9-1, 6-1 [@MD, UF]
Clemson 9-1, 6-1 [NCSU, South Carolina]
State 6-4, 3-3 [@Clemson, BC]

Duke 6-4, 3-3 [@GT, Miami]
GT 5-5, 4-3 [Duke, @UGA]
Miami 5-5, 4-3 [USF, @Duke]

WFU 5-5, 3-5 [@ND, Vandy]
VT 4-6, 2-4 [@BC, UVa]
UVA 4-6, 2-4 [UNC, @VT]

MD 4-6, 2-4 [FSU, @UNC]

----------------------

BC 2-8, 1-6 [VT, @NCSU]
UNC 6-4, 3-3 (ineligible b/c they're cheaters) [@UVa, MD]

[-bdbd]

After today's events, VT cannot win the coastal and be 6-6 facing the UCLA dilemma, but GT can.

Also, total bowl eligible teams is still tracking with a good chance to come in short of 70 teams.
Marshall losing in a mild upset today has a good chance of knocking them out of the picture.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ons/index.html

CNN/SI's Mandel is now forecasting Clemson to the Sugar vs 'Bama. That means NCSU to the Chic Fil-A in Atlanta as the top non-BCS ACC team (versus Spurrier and South Carolina), and the dominoes continue to then fall throughout the ACC bowl picture...

Miami still seen as the logical next choice, for the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando (vs Big East #2 Rutgers), followed by DUKE as the conference's third non-BCS selection, going to the Sun Bowl in El Paso on New Years Eve versus Oregon State (PAC12 #4). He then slots Ga Tech into the Belk Bowl in Charlotte (vs Cincy, the Big East #4 team), and FSU into the Nashville Music City Bowl (vs Vandy).

Everybody root for Clemson to win out, and maybe a loss or two among the other teams ranked in the 5-10 range!

It seems to me, at least, that winning one or two more is pretty critical in terms of getting selected as high as the Russell, Sun or Belk Bowls, ahead of GT and VPI. If we were to lose out, then I think GT could easily slip ahead of us, and even VPI.

[Newton_14]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ons/index.html

CNN/SI's Mandel is now forecasting Clemson to the Sugar vs 'Bama. That means NCSU to the Chic Fil-A in Atlanta as the top non-BCS ACC team (versus Spurrier and South Carolina), and the dominoes continue to then fall throughout the ACC bowl picture...

Miami still seen as the logical next choice, for the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando (vs Big East #2 Rutgers), followed by DUKE as the conference's third non-BCS selection, going to the Sun Bowl in El Paso on New Years Eve versus Oregon State (PAC12 #4). He then slots Ga Tech into the Belk Bowl in Charlotte (vs Cincy, the Big East #4 team), and FSU into the Nashville Music City Bowl (vs Vandy).

Everybody root for Clemson to win out, and maybe a loss or two among the other teams ranked in the 5-10 range!

It seems to me, at least, that winning one or two more is pretty critical in terms of getting selected as high as the Russell, Sun or Belk Bowls, ahead of GT and VPI. If we were to lose out, then I think GT could easily slip ahead of us, and even VPI.

If they accept a bid, I would think Miami goes to the Chic Fil-A Bowl rather than NC State. Miami beat them head to head and holds a better claim to being the ACC's third best team than does NC State in my opinion. Still hoping Duke plays in Charlotte...