The Bowl Selection Vigil

[loran16]

Are we sure Clemson even needs to beat South Carolina? There are 10 spots in BCS bowl games. After the 6 conference champions, presumably the four "at-large" bids will go to:

1. Notre Dame, who realistically at worst will be 11-1.
2. A 2nd SEC team - likely Florida or Georgia, but could be Alabama if they lose the SEC title game, and even dark horses like LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Mississippi State are still alive if they win out and other teams lose.
3. A 2nd Big 12 team - probably Oklahoma, but, for all the negative talk they've been getting, look out for Texas.

I agree the fourth spot is Clemson's for sure if they win out. But even with a loss to South Carolina, at 10-2, they've got a pretty decent shot, don't they? The Big 10 and Big East only have one team in the top 25 currently - so if Nebraska and Louisville win their conferences, there's probably not a threat there. That leaves the Pac-12. Stanford and Oregon State are currently ranked highly (USC shouldn't be counted out either), but they play each other and Oregon, so I think we can come up with realistic scenarios where a 10-2 Clemson gets the last bid, especially since I imagine their fan base is more attractive to bowls than Stanford's or Oregon State's.

There's a spot for Boise State if they win out apparently (they should crack the BCS threshold there if they do), which takes away one spot.

EDIT: Never mind, didn't see Boise losing.

[Reilly]

... the very real possibility of having only 6 bowl eligible teams, including Miami. If FSU and Clemson win out and end up in the BCS, that would mean the ACC filling only 3 of the 8 non-BCS bowl lineup if Miami opts out.

If there are 6 bowl-eligible ACC teams including Miami, and Miami opts out, and Clemson let's say gets the BCS at-large spot, then the ACC will be filling 3 of its 7 non-BCS slots. We only have 8 non-BCS slots if Navy or the Pac-12 doesn't do its job (and Navy sealed its berth yesterday).

[OldPhiKap]

With the GT win last night reducing the bowl eligibility chances, the league office will certainly be putting pressure on Miami not to opt out.

[StraighFace] Of course, this cannot be true. Student athletics are all about integrity, not money. [/StraightFace]

[burnspbesq]

FWIW, in the latest set of espn.com bowl projections, Mark Schlabach has Duke playing Cincinnati in Charlotte, while Brad Edwards has Duke playing Tennessee in Nashville.

[BigWayne]

Are we sure Clemson even needs to beat South Carolina? There are 10 spots in BCS bowl games. After the 6 conference champions, presumably the four "at-large" bids will go to:

1. Notre Dame, who realistically at worst will be 11-1.
2. A 2nd SEC team - likely Florida or Georgia, but could be Alabama if they lose the SEC title game, and even dark horses like LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Mississippi State are still alive if they win out and other teams lose.
3. A 2nd Big 12 team - probably Oklahoma, but, for all the negative talk they've been getting, look out for Texas.

I agree the fourth spot is Clemson's for sure if they win out. But even with a loss to South Carolina, at 10-2, they've got a pretty decent shot, don't they? The Big 10 and Big East only have one team in the top 25 currently - so if Nebraska and Louisville win their conferences, there's probably not a threat there. That leaves the Pac-12. Stanford and Oregon State are currently ranked highly (USC shouldn't be counted out either), but they play each other and Oregon, so I think we can come up with realistic scenarios where a 10-2 Clemson gets the last bid, especially since I imagine their fan base is more attractive to bowls than Stanford's or Oregon State's.

I was looking at this today. Because of the Rose Bowl affinity for a PAC12 team, Clemson's chances are not so good. It all depends on who is in the BCS game and what happens with the PAC12 title game. If Oregon wins out and is in the NCG, then the PAC12 probably sends a second team into the Rose Bowl. If Oregon wins out the regular season and then loses the PAC12 title game to USC or UCLA, Oregon would get the 2nd slot somewhere.

[blazindw]

I was looking at this today. Because of the Rose Bowl affinity for a PAC12 team, Clemson's chances are not so good. It all depends on who is in the BCS game and what happens with the PAC12 title game. If Oregon wins out and is in the NCG, then the PAC12 probably sends a second team into the Rose Bowl. If Oregon wins out the regular season and then loses the PAC12 title game to USC or UCLA, Oregon would get the 2nd slot somewhere.

Looking at the BCS standings right now, here's what we're likely looking at:

BCS Title: Bama vs. K-State
Rose: Oregon vs. B1G winner
Fiesta: At large vs. At large
Sugar: At large vs. At large
Orange: FSU/Clemson vs. At large (or is it BE winner - Louisville?)

Likely At Larges: ND, Georgia/Florida/LSU/South Carolina
Possible At Larges: Oregon State/Stanford, Clemson, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Louisville (if at large)

Clemson still has a good shot of making it, as the SEC can only have 1 of UGa, UF, LSU or SCarolina in the BCS and the Pac 12 can only have one of Oregon State or Stanford in it. If it's Bama-K-State in the title game, then the Sugar and Fiesta will have an extra at large to fill and that's where Clemson could have a chance if they win out. I agree that if it's Bama-Oregon, then the Rose will seek a Pac 12 team to fill its spot if possible to preserve the traditional Pac 12-B1G matchup.

[House G]

FWIW, in the latest set of espn.com bowl projections, Mark Schlabach has Duke playing Cincinnati in Charlotte, while Brad Edwards has Duke playing Tennessee in Nashville.

Tennessee may have trouble getting six wins.

[-bdbd]

Stewart Mandel at CNN/SI has a pretty good track record at these Bowl projections. Below is his latest set, with Duke in the Belk Bowl vs Cincy (Big East #3). He has us as the ACC #5 pick behind FSU (ACC - sole BCS entry), Clemson (#2 at Chick Fil-A), Miami (#3 at Russell Athletic), NCSU (ACC #4 at Sun Bowl), and in front of VPI (ACC #6 at Music City vs Tenn). I don't see some other ACC candidates on there - Ga Tech, MD, Wake. This would imply that if we saw Clemson getting a BCS at-large slot, it would move us up, maybe, to ACC#4 and the Sun Bowl. So root for Clemson to win out, and some other non-ACC top-ten teams (BCS at-large candidates) to lose, and/or hope for more losses from Miami and NCSU to move them down a notch in terms of their bowl attractiveness. Miami, BTW, seems a very logical choice for Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlabdo, for the in-state crowd they'd bring. Of course, if they self-de-select....

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...&sct=hp_t12_a0

BCS bowls

DATE

PREDICTED MATCHUP



Jan. 1

Rose: Nebraska (Big Ten champ) vs. Oregon State (BCS at-large)



Jan. 1

Orange: Florida State (ACC champ) vs. Louisville (Big East champ)



Jan. 2

Sugar: Florida (BCS at-large) vs. Oklahoma (BCS at-large)



Jan. 3

Fiesta: Kansas State (Big 12 champ) vs. Notre Dame (BCS at-large)



Jan. 7

BCS championship: Alabama (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon (BCS No. 2)




Other bowls


DATE

PREDICTED MATCHUP



Dec. 15

New Mexico: Nevada (MWC No. 4) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 No. 7)



Dec. 15

Idaho Potato: Utah State (WAC) vs. Northern Illinois (MAC No. 3)



Dec. 20

Poinsettia: San Diego State (MWC No. 2) vs. BYU (BYU)



Dec. 21

Beef 'O' Brady's: UCF (C-USA) vs. Miami (Ohio) (Big East*)



Dec. 22

New Orleans: Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt No. 1) vs. East Carolina (C-USA)



Dec. 22

Maaco: Boise State (MWC No. 1) vs. Washington (Pac-12 No. 5)



Dec. 24

Hawaii: Fresno State (MWC) vs. San Jose State (C-USA*)



Dec. 26

Little Caesars: Toledo (MAC) vs. Western Kentucky (Big Ten No. 8*)



Dec . 27

Belk: Cincinnati (Big East No. 3) vs. Duke (ACC No. 5)



Dec. 27

Military: Western Michigan (ACC No. 8*) vs. Middle Tennessee (Army*)



Dec. 27

Holiday: USC (Pac-12 No. 3) vs. West Virginia (Big 12 No. 5)



Dec. 28

Independence: Louisiana Tech (ACC No. 7*) vs. Bowling Green (SEC No. 10*)



Dec. 28

Meineke Texas: Minnesota (Big Ten No. 6) vs. TCU (Big 12 No. 6)



Dec. 28

Russell Athletic: Rutgers (Big East No. 2) vs. Miami (ACC No. 3)



Dec. 29

Pinstripe: Pittsburgh (Big East No. 4) vs. Iowa State (Big 12 No. 7)



Dec. 29

Buffalo Wild Wings: Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 4) vs. Northwestern (Big Ten No. 5)



Dec. 29

Alamo: UCLA (Pac-12 No. 2) vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 3)



Dec. 29

Armed Forces: Marshall (C-USA) vs. Air Force (MWC)



Dec. 29

Kraft Fight Hunger: Arizona (Pac-12 No. 6) vs. Navy (Navy)



Dec. 31

Music City: Virginia Tech (ACC No. 6) vs. Tennessee (SEC)



Dec. 31

Sun: NC State (ACC No. 4) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 No. 4)



Dec. 31

Liberty: Tulsa (C-USA No. 1) vs. Ole Miss (SEC No. 8/9)



Dec. 31

Chick-fil-A: Clemson (ACC No. 2) vs. Texas A&M (SEC No. 5)



Jan. 1

Heart of Dallas: Kent State (Big Ten No. 7*) vs. La.-Lafayette (C-USA*)



Jan. 1

Capital One: Georgia (SEC No. 2) vs. Michigan (Big Ten No. 2)



Jan. 1

Outback: Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 3) vs. South Carolina (SEC)



Jan. 1

Gator: Michigan State (Big Ten No. 4) vs. Mississippi State (SEC No. 6)



Jan. 4

Cotton: Texas (Big 12 No. 2) vs. LSU (SEC)



Jan. 5

BBVA Compass: Ball State (Big East*) vs. Vanderbilt (SEC No. 8/9)



Jan. 6

GoDaddy.com: Ohio (MAC) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt No. 2)




Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz2BPc2zG61

[mgtr]

A question which may have been asked and answered a dozen times: With all these bowls, what if there are not enough 6-win teams? Has it ever happened?

[BigWayne]

A question which may have been asked and answered a dozen times: With all these bowls, what if there are not enough 6-win teams? Has it ever happened?

This is why they added a bunch of ways to add a few more teams by provisional eligibility. Right this minute, Cincinnati is provisionally eligible, but not fully eligible yet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2...ntingency_plan

[Bluedog]

This is why they added a bunch of ways to add a few more teams by provisional eligibility. Right this minute, Cincinnati is provisionally eligible, but not fully eligible yet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2...ntingency_plan

Also, there are unresolved NCAA cases involving Oregon and Miami...

Huh? There's a pending NCAA case against Oregon or is that wrong?

[Reilly]

A question which may have been asked and answered a dozen times: With all these bowls, what if there are not enough 6-win teams? Has it ever happened?

Not sure if it has ever happened. What are there now -- 35 bowls requiring 70 teams (of 124 I-A)?

By my quick count, espn is showing 48 bowl eligible right now.

You can order the teams by wins here:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...standings.html

... and that shows 52 teams w/ 6+ wins (some not eligible, like Ohio State or Penn State).
... 69 teams have 5+ wins right now

[BigWayne]

Huh? There's a pending NCAA case against Oregon or is that wrong?

Yep. http://www.registerguard.com/web/spo...ocess.html.csp

[BigWayne]

Not sure if it has ever happened. What are there now -- 35 bowls requiring 70 teams (of 124 I-A)?

By my quick count, espn is showing 48 bowl eligible right now.

You can order the teams by wins here:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...standings.html

... and that shows 52 teams w/ 6+ wins (some not eligible, like Ohio State or Penn State).
... 69 teams have 5+ wins right now

The Wikipedia link I posted keeps a running total of eligible and unable to become eligible teams. They include things like winner of the Wake Forest/NCSU game
as they both need one more win. It's not perfect, but it tends to stay pretty up to date. They show 52 eligible right now. I think they are missing the winner of the Arizona/ASU game on 11/23, so it should probably be 53 right now.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

This is why they added a bunch of ways to add a few more teams by provisional eligibility. Right this minute, Cincinnati is provisionally eligible, but not fully eligible yet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012–13...ntingency_plan

We were one of 5 teams eligible at 5 wins, based on graduation rates. Beating carolina and getting us to 6 wins took us off that list!

[BigWayne]

I updated the Wikipedia to add the AZ/ASU winner and get it to 53 teams. Looking at the rest of the teams and their future schedules, I am projecting that there will be 68 or 69 bowl eligible teams, with a reasonable max of 71. Not knowing all the details of every school schedule, I can't say for certain, but I am not sure the contingency plans will generate any more teams. The only one I can see is UTSA under contingency #5, but that would be very sketchy as they only have one FBS win, with a couple of D2 wins in their list.

[wilson]

I updated the Wikipedia to add the AZ/ASU winner and get it to 53 teams. Looking at the rest of the teams and their future schedules, I am projecting that there will be 68 or 69 bowl eligible teams, with a reasonable max of 71. Not knowing all the details of every school schedule, I can't say for certain, but I am not sure the contingency plans will generate any more teams. The only one I can see is UTSA under contingency #5, but that would be very sketchy as they only have one FBS win, with a couple of D2 wins in their list.

UTSA is a provisional FBS team this year, in the second year of the NCAA-mandated two-year transition process, and thus ineligible for a bowl, irrespective of how many games they may win: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_UT..._football_team
The only team that has the possibility of achieving provisiona[/URL]l bowl eligibility at this stage in the season is Cincinnati, although they have a reasonable chance at "real" eligibility with 6 wins already (2 against FCS teams, so one "doesn't count") and games remaining vs. South Florida, Pitt, and UConn (I'm assuming they won't beat Rutgers).
No other team meets the provisional eligibility guidelines, listed below. In fact, at roughly the midpoint of the season, Duke was the only team (other than Cincinnati) with a chance of meeting them, but as Ozzie pointed out, that possibility was rendered moot against the holes.

Provisional bowl eligibility guidelines:

1. Teams finishing 6-6 with one win against an FCS team, regardless of whether that FCS school meets NCAA scholarship requirements. Until now, an FCS win only counted if that opponent met the scholarship requirements—specifically, that school had to award at least 90% of the FCS maximum of 63 scholarship equivalents over a two-year period. In the 2012 season, programs in four FCS conferences cannot meet the 90% requirement (56.7 equivalents)—the Ivy League, which prohibits all athletic scholarships; the Patriot League and Pioneer Football League, which do not currently award football scholarships; and the Northeast Conference, which limits football scholarships to 38 equivalents.
2. 6-6 teams with two wins over FCS schools.
3. Teams that finish 6-7 and lose in the conference championship game are next.
4. 6-7 teams that normally play a 13-team schedule, such as Hawaii's home opponents. Although Hawaii normally plays a 13-game schedule, it is only playing 12 games this season.
5. FCS teams who are making the transition to the FBS, if they have at least a 6-6 record.
6. Finally, the nod would go to 5-7 teams that have a top-5 Academic Progress Rate score.

[BigWayne]

The contingency plans cover 6 cases where teams are ineligible by the standard guidelines. FBS transition teams are covered under item #5. I expect that #5 was written assuming that the FCS team would be playing some FBS and multiple FCS teams, but never imagined to also include D2. I have searched around and only seen the basic description of 6-6 or better with no qualifiers, but I have got to believe the D2 games won't count. That being said, if they can go 2-1 in their last 3 games they would finish 5-5 in FBS/FCS contests.

[NovaScotian]

is duke still in play for the ACC championship game? what needs to happen (besides beating gt and um) for us to win the division?

[uh_no]

is duke still in play for the ACC championship game? what needs to happen (besides beating gt and um) for us to win the division?

fsu beats VT I believe