Baseball 2012 - Post-Season Thread

[blazindw]

Tigers back in the World Series!!! What a great performance tonight from Scherzer on the mound (all of the pitchers, actually...combined 2-hitter) to Peralta to Mr. Triple Crown and Delmon Young.


As you can see, I'm pretty excited over here!!

[Matches]

I don't know ... maybe it could happen. There's a theory that the Yankees actually have plenty of money, but are determined to get under the $189 million salary cap. I'm not 100 percent sure how the cap works in this matter. If a team -- say the Braves if you'd like -- would commit to $8 million a year for the rest of the contract, while the Yankees paid off the remaining portion (meaning the Braves pay $40 million and the Yankees paid the other $74 million) then how much would count against the Yankees' cap? Or maybe they could structure it differently -- the point being is that the Yankees would swallow a lot of money if it would get A-Roid off their cap ... but if that money still counts against them, I don't see the point in any deal.

MLB has no salary cap. The Yankees can spend whatever they want to spend, provided they're willing to pay the luxury tax (which they always do). It certainly is wasteful to pay $20 mil a year to a guy who's not even on your team anymore, but that's what they're going to have to do in order to move him. No team would take on the whole contract. And at this point I think they pretty much have to move him. Can't see any way that relationship gets repaired, and if they keep him around he'll be a distraction. Better for the Yanks to move him and at least get some return/ salary relief while he still has value.

Of course, A-Rod has 10/5 rights, so he can block a trade if he wants. Should be a fun offseason in NY.

[weezie]

As you can see, I'm pretty excited over here!!

Over here tooooooo! Yoooo-hoooooo!

You know what?! It does INDEED feel good to be a gangsta!.

[cspan37421]

Over here tooooooo! Yoooo-hoooooo!

You know what?! It does INDEED feel good to be a gangsta!.

So, there was joy in Mudville. It really does amaze me that the Tigers have been so solid during a period of striking decline (no pun intended) for the city. Though I note that the population decline the broader metro area is not severe at all, if Wikipedia is to be believed.

In any case, it was sad to see how frail Mike Illitch appears, but he's been a great owner of the Wings and Tigers. If only he had been interested in and had $$ for the Lions back in the day - imagine the heartaches averted. Dombrowski and Leyland have been great, too. We have been very lucky to have great people AND great stability. Detroit is one of those towns - you win once, they love you forever.

Starting pitching has been amazing. I was glad to hear Leyland say that after tonight, they weren't going to sit around - these guys are going to prepare hard for the WS. Scherzer was great but clearly hit a wall by the end. Coke has been remarkable. My prediction of Leyland giving it to Valverde to close out was clearly wrong. I was still surprised - a 7 run lead ... there must be something going on there, perhaps beyond the "his windup is slow." However, we did see A-Rod and Granderson.

I hadn't followed baseball closely until the pennant races and didn't realize A-Rod was coming off a broken wrist. Seems crazy to expect much! I know NYC is a tough town but jeez, he might be OK next year. Dominating? Those years may be in his rear-view mirror - but perhaps he'd be worth keeping versus what you'd have to do to unload him at fire-sale prices. Why not let spring training play out? Again, there must be more to it that we don't know.

Weezie and blazindw, does Leyland remind you of K in his coaching style? He really goes by feel (or says he does ... who knows, maybe he's a sabremetrics guy in disguise).

[blazindw]

Weezie and blazindw, does Leyland remind you of K in his coaching style? He really goes by feel (or says he does ... who knows, maybe he's a sabremetrics guy in disguise).

Leyland has always been a feel guy...did the same thing when he was with Pittsburgh and Florida. He leaves himself open for second-guessing several times during the year, but he comes through when you need a manager. Putting in Coke when Valverde was struggling has proven to be the decision of the playoffs so far.

Now that we're in the Series, I expect that he's gonna go with the players that got him there. A lot of them are hot at the right time, and the real question will be if Leyland goes with a 4 pitcher rotation with Verlander going in Games 1 and 5 or will he do a 3-man rotation with Sanchez being the odd man out and Verlander going in 1, 4, and a potential 7. It will be interesting to see!

[Olympic Fan]

MLB has no salary cap. The Yankees can spend whatever they want to spend, provided they're willing to pay the luxury tax (which they always do). It certainly is wasteful to pay $20 mil a year to a guy who's not even on your team anymore, but that's what they're going to have to do in order to move him. No team would take on the whole contract. And at this point I think they pretty much have to move him. Can't see any way that relationship gets repaired, and if they keep him around he'll be a distraction. Better for the Yanks to move him and at least get some return/ salary relief while he still has value.

Of course, A-Rod has 10/5 rights, so he can block a trade if he wants. Should be a fun offseason in NY.

I mis-spoke (or mis-typed if you will) when I wrote about a salary cap. I was talking about the luxury tax, which explodes next year if a team tops $189 million (there is already a tax and next year even lower payrolls will be taxed, but starting next year $189 million is where the huge tax rate kicks in). The Yankees have been adamant that will get under that "cap". It shows in their transactions. In the winter of 2008-09, they were their free spending selves. The bonanza actually started after the 2007 season when A-Roid opted out of his 10-year deal that he had signed with the Rangers (interestingly, the Rangers paid $67 million of the $179 million that he was still owed on that deal). The Yankees gave him a 10-year $250 million deal after the 2007 season -- the one that still has five years and $114 million to go.

In the winter of 2008-09, the Yankees made big deals to get Sabathia, Teixera and AJ Burnett. Those deals brought a pennant in 2009.

But the significant thing is that New York has not committed to any major free agents since then. The only long-term deal they've made in that time was to lock up Jeter. They have spent on free agents, but it's all been short-term stuff -- both Kiroda and Ibanez this year were signed to one-year deals. While they have put in modest bids for a few bigger names, they haven't made a serious run at any of the mega free agents in the last three years. They weren't among the top bidders for Cespedes or Chapman out of Cuba or Darvish when he came on the market. They never really got involved with the bidding for Pujols or CJ Wilson.

I believe the Yankees ARE committed to that $189 million "cap". I've read analysis that suggests that they are stupid to do so -- that their profits are so high that they can afford to pay the tax and they make more net by being successful. I've also read theories that the Steinbrenner family wants to sell the franchise and it becomes much more valuable if not burdened with a over-the-top, long-term payroll.

Don't know if either of those is true, but I do believe that A-Roid's future will be tied to the Yankee effort to avoid that luxury tax. If they can dump him and structure it to clear space, they would eat a big loss. If they can't do that, then I suspect they keep him.

BTW, congrats to the Tigers ... interesting that after eight straight quality starts, we finally get a cluncker -- at it comes from our ace!

[sporthenry]

I mis-spoke (or mis-typed if you will) when I wrote about a salary cap. I was talking about the luxury tax, which explodes next year if a team tops $189 million (there is already a tax and next year even lower payrolls will be taxed, but starting next year $189 million is where the huge tax rate kicks in). The Yankees have been adamant that will get under that "cap". It shows in their transactions. In the winter of 2008-09, they were their free spending selves. The bonanza actually started after the 2007 season when A-Roid opted out of his 10-year deal that he had signed with the Rangers (interestingly, the Rangers paid $67 million of the $179 million that he was still owed on that deal). The Yankees gave him a 10-year $250 million deal after the 2007 season -- the one that still has five years and $114 million to go.

In the winter of 2008-09, the Yankees made big deals to get Sabathia, Teixera and AJ Burnett. Those deals brought a pennant in 2009.

But the significant thing is that New York has not committed to any major free agents since then. The only long-term deal they've made in that time was to lock up Jeter. They have spent on free agents, but it's all been short-term stuff -- both Kiroda and Ibanez this year were signed to one-year deals. While they have put in modest bids for a few bigger names, they haven't made a serious run at any of the mega free agents in the last three years. They weren't among the top bidders for Cespedes or Chapman out of Cuba or Darvish when he came on the market. They never really got involved with the bidding for Pujols or CJ Wilson.

I believe the Yankees ARE committed to that $189 million "cap". I've read analysis that suggests that they are stupid to do so -- that their profits are so high that they can afford to pay the tax and they make more net by being successful. I've also read theories that the Steinbrenner family wants to sell the franchise and it becomes much more valuable if not burdened with a over-the-top, long-term payroll.

Don't know if either of those is true, but I do believe that A-Roid's future will be tied to the Yankee effort to avoid that luxury tax. If they can dump him and structure it to clear space, they would eat a big loss. If they can't do that, then I suspect they keep him.

BTW, congrats to the Tigers ... interesting that after eight straight quality starts, we finally get a cluncker -- at it comes from our ace!

The luxury tax doesn't swell to the 189 limit til 2014. That is why 2014 is the deadline that Hal set. This also coincides with the more punitive luxury tax meaning the 4th offense will tax you 50% of that. Businessmen consider the luxury tax pure loss so they are hesitant to go over it. And while the Yankees aren't going to hit the red anytime soon, these are still businessmen trying to be as efficient as possible. That means that while they won't lose money by going over it, they won't necessarily gain much money by going over either considering they should still be successful (quite a departure from when George was there). I also think you'll see clubs go over and under the cap because 17.5% isn't giant while 50% is pretty tough.

There is thinking that with quite a bunch of the big market teams headed towards new TV deals along with MLB's new TV deal that money could become less of an issue and teams like the Dodgers may be willing to spend anything (i.e. half a billion dollars for effectively 1 player). I just don't see this becoming too much of a problem because the Yankees are the only team consistently above it now and they are trying to get below it, the Phillies gutted their roster to get below it, etc. And I know you say they can make more by winning and going over it, but I feel many GMs will think they can win just about as much and save money.

[weezie]

Weezie and blazindw, does Leyland remind you of K in his coaching style?

Yes, definitely. But I'm of the impression that the Skipper is far crustier than K and that's saying a lot. It was pretty funny to watch Leyland sit there, not moving a muscle during the game, keeping the shades on throughout into the night just to keep the mojo going.
I was also surprised that Valverde did not come in. I think it must have come from Jose himself, maybe a nod to Coke's tenacity.
Leyland is both feel and numbers guy; he keeps good track of who has had success against his hurlers and he's admitted that he has gotten burned plenty of times when the heart outweighed the head.
It's incredible, he must have a hide like a rhino the way people were blood-thirsty for his ouster last year.

[JasonEvans]

Agreed. It's not like there's a deep talent pool at 3B right now. It's about as thin as I can remember it.

Yanks have mis-managed ARod pretty badly. Yea he's stunk in the playoffs but so has just about everyone else on that team. If sitting him makes the team better then so be it, but they're sitting him in favor of a dude who is 0-for-the-playoffs and made a key error in Game 3. It's not like they benched him for Mike Schmidt.

If you ask me, the Yankees would have been quite fortunate if they could have put 63-year-old Mike Schmidt out there at 3B. It is not like the guys who they did put out there did much better than a guy with an AARP card.

Oh, and ARod to the Braves seems unlikely to me, even at a discounted price. I think the Braves will go with Prado at 3B and try to find a LFer. It is far easier to find a LFer for 5-7 mil than it is to find a 3B. That said, they could do anything. I am not aware of any stud position prospects (in OF or 3B) that are anywhere near ready for the Bigs in the Braves system other than the catcher at AA, Christian Bethancourt. So, the Braves are going to have to look outside in all likelihood (unless they want to give 25 year old Juan Francisco a shot at the 3B job full-time).

-Jason "pretty much every Yankee hitter not named ARod should buy that guy dinner for taking some of the heat off all the rest of them" Evans

[Blue in the Face]

(interestingly, the Rangers paid $67 million of the $179 million that he was still owed on that deal).

The Rangers agreed to pay $67 million of what was still owed to A-Rod at the time of the trade, but actually wound up paying only $46 million, because $21 million of their obligation related to years which A-Rod voided when he opted out of his contract.

[cspan37421]

Leyland is both feel and numbers guy; he keeps good track of who has had success against his hurlers and he's admitted that he has gotten burned plenty of times when the heart outweighed the head.

In a way I think "feel" vs. "numbers" is a false dichotomy because one gets a feel for things through cumulative experience, which is a way of collecting data/numbers either implicitly or explicitly. You internalize the numbers by observation, though the reliability of that method is subject to a number of cognitive biases (such as remembering negative events more vividly than positive ones). In any case there's a continuum ... you don't coach by feel without knowing what is going on and having some internalized data set (e.g., exceptions to lefty-vs-righty), as well as general reasoning (if I go to pitcher X now, that limits my choices thus and so).

[BD80]

Leyland has always been a feel guy...did the same thing when he was with Pittsburgh and Florida. He leaves himself open for second-guessing several times during the year, but he comes through when you need a manager. Putting in Coke when Valverde was struggling has proven to be the decision of the playoffs so far.

Now that we're in the Series, I expect that he's gonna go with the players that got him there. A lot of them are hot at the right time, and the real question will be if Leyland goes with a 4 pitcher rotation with Verlander going in Games 1 and 5 or will he do a 3-man rotation with Sanchez being the odd man out and Verlander going in 1, 4, and a potential 7. It will be interesting to see!

But Leyland is a slave to the pitch count! His style is not so rigid that he ignores the psyche of the individual player, but "crusty" enough that players best not display an inflamed ego.

Sanchez is the only Tiger pitcher with a hit this year - 3 of them! The 1st 2 games are in the National league park, wonder if the pitcher hitting will affect the rotation at all?

... In the winter of 2008-09, the Yankees made big deals to get Sabathia, Teixera and AJ Burnett. Those deals brought a pennant in 2009. ...

Typo? Those deals bought a pennant in 2009

BTW I know more than a few Tiger fans that were pulling for CC. They had game 5 tickets!

[cspan37421]

But Leyland is a slave to the pitch count! His style is not so rigid that he ignores the psyche of the individual player, but "crusty" enough that players best not display an inflamed ego.

Sanchez is the only Tiger pitcher with a hit this year - 3 of them! The 1st 2 games are in the National league park, wonder if the pitcher hitting will affect the rotation at all?

Interesting about Sanchez.

Would a slave to the pitch count regularly let the best pitcher in the AL (if not MLB entirely) go 130+ pitches, not infrequently? Or does JV just have a higher standard.

It's such a balancing act. I felt with a big lead Leyland was going to let Scherzer get out of his last inning on his own. But he did the exact right thing - send out the pitching coach in the middle of an AB, give him a chance to retire him. When Scherzer threw balls 3 and 4 immediately after the visit, it was clear, he was done.

Under-reaction cost Grady Little his job, esp. when the whole park knows their beloved pitcher is toast. Over-reaction can be counterproductive and harmful to a pitcher's psyche.

[blazindw]

Interesting about Sanchez.

Would a slave to the pitch count regularly let the best pitcher in the AL (if not MLB entirely) go 130+ pitches, not infrequently? Or does JV just have a higher standard.

It's such a balancing act. I felt with a big lead Leyland was going to let Scherzer get out of his last inning on his own. But he did the exact right thing - send out the pitching coach in the middle of an AB, give him a chance to retire him. When Scherzer threw balls 3 and 4 immediately after the visit, it was clear, he was done.

Under-reaction cost Grady Little his job, esp. when the whole park knows their beloved pitcher is toast. Over-reaction can be counterproductive and harmful to a pitcher's psyche.

Keep in mind Sanchez started the year with the Marlins, so he theoretically had quite a few more at-bats to get hits this season than the rest of the Tigers rotation. Still, I would not be surprised to see Sanchez in Game 2 for that reason, leaving Scherzer and Fister for 3 and 4 at home where they are very good.

I think Leyland is a strict pitch count observer for various pitchers. JV is on another level though...Leyland knows not to take the ball from him unless it's absolutely vital. JV can do 130 pitches and come back on 3 days rest to still have All-Star stuff.

[BD80]

Interesting about Sanchez.

Would a slave to the pitch count regularly let the best pitcher in the AL (if not MLB entirely) go 130+ pitches, not infrequently? Or does JV just have a higher standard.

It's such a balancing act. I felt with a big lead Leyland was going to let Scherzer get out of his last inning on his own. But he did the exact right thing - send out the pitching coach in the middle of an AB, give him a chance to retire him. When Scherzer threw balls 3 and 4 immediately after the visit, it was clear, he was done.

Under-reaction cost Grady Little his job, esp. when the whole park knows their beloved pitcher is toast. Over-reaction can be counterproductive and harmful to a pitcher's psyche.

Leyland yanked Verlander at about 135 pitches in the 9th with 1 out and Justin still throwing in the 90s. I call that a slave. I also think it was the right move. I don't think he's ever let JV get to 140 pitches.

[throatybeard]

Give them a break, they had traveled a long way to Missouri ...

It has a different use in this neck of the woods.

[throatybeard]

Zito stood tall. Gammons and everybody thought the LH-mashing Cardinals had an advantage there.

I think Saint Louis wins this in six or not at all. Who beats Cain twice?

[throatybeard]

Zito stood tall. Gammons and everybody thought the LH-mashing Cardinals had an advantage there.

I think Saint Louis wins this in six or not at all. Who beats Cain twice?

Ruh-roh.

[Jim3k]

Zito stood tall. Who beats Cain twice?

Not the Cardinals. SF takes the Flag, 9-0. Weird rain at the end. Needed goggles and fins.

Scutaro deserved the MVP award.

I wonder if the weather will disrupt the World Series. I bet it does.

[awhom111]

Not the Cardinals. SF takes the Flag, 9-0. Weird rain at the end. Needed goggles and fins.

Scutaro deserved the MVP award.

I wonder if the weather will disrupt the World Series. I bet it does.

I hope that the rain goes away. It seems a little early for Bay Area rain to me. I think the non-sports executives at FOX will flip out if any games are moved back and the series runs long.

I am due to be in that area of town early in the day on Thursday. More traffic and transit difficulties are on their way although today was mostly fine.