anyone want to take a stab at the acc preseason basketball standings?

[TheDuke11]

i'm thinking this:
1: unc
2: ncsu
3: Duke
4: clemson
5: wfu
6: myld
7: ga tech
8: fsu
9: uva
10: bc
11: va tech
12: miami

[mgtr]

I'll play.

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. Clemson
4. NCSU
5. MD
6. UVa
7. BC
8. VT
9. WF
10. GT
11. FSU
12. Miami

[Jarhead]

Let's go with:

1. BC
2. Clemson
3. Duke
4. FSU
5. GT
6. MD
7. Miami
8. NCSU
9. UNC
10. UVa
11. VT
12. WF

Notice? It's in alpha order. That's as well as I can do now. Besides, that's the way it will appear in the papers at the beginning. Actually, though, either of the first two posts have some merit.

[Olympic Fan]

It's going to be a wide open race and you can make a case for a lot of teams in a lot of positions. If I had to guess, I'd feel comfortable with the following:

1 -- North Carolina almost has to be picked No. 1 on paper. It's not that they're overpowering -- they lost their two starting forwards off a team that only tried for the regular season title last year and didn't add any significant player. Still, they return Hansbrough in the post and their backcourt of Lawson and Ellington ought to be better as sophs. Plus they get a healthy Bobby Fraser back after he was hobbled all season and have guys like Thompson, Ginyard, Stepheson and Green who can all play. They're beatable, but they start the year with the target as the preseason favorite.

2 -- The second tier of Duke, Clemson, N.C. State ... you can make a case for any of these three for second, third, fourth. They all have some strengths, but they also have weaknesses. For instance, NC State returns four starters off a team that finished very strong and added a prep All-American big man. But State wasn't very good last year when Atsur didn't play and now he's gone. They've got three PG candidates, but none is a lock to do the job. Clemson loose Hamilton off a middle-of-the-road team, but they have a lot of depth back and they've gotten better every year under Purnell. Duke ... well, you guys know the pluses and minuses there.

3 -- I see a middle echelon of Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia and Florida State. I'd have Ga Tech a notch higher -- in fact, the clearcut No. 2 team in the league if Crittendon had returned. They are strong in the post and on the wings. Virginia has the best point guard in the league, but it looks like he's going to have to carry an even bigger scoring load.

4 -- My lower echelon has Wake, Va Tech, BC and Miami. I would have had Va Tech a notch higher, but the transfer of Munson -- the guy they were grooming as point guard -- is devastating.

The other thing you'd better check before getting too specific about your predictions is the schedule. A year ago, Virginia had by far the easiest ACC schedule and it made all the difference in their finish. I haven't studied this year's yet, but a friend told me that Georgia Tech had the easiest ACC schedule (and that Duke's in-league slate went from one of the toughest to a far easier one).

[Duke79UNLV77]

1: [Intentionally left blank]
2: Duke
3: NC State
4: Klampsun
5: Garyland wfu
6: Ga. Tech
7: U.Va.
8: FSU
9: BC
10: Wake
11: Va. tech
12: Miami

[TheDuke11]

i think wake is going to surprise some people this year. I really like their little pg and they have some athletes in their backcourt. They arent big though, but who is other than the tarheels.

[Classof06]

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. NC State (Might actually be 2nd, but i'll give us the benefit of the doubt)
4. - 12. The Rest


I wouldn't call it a "down" year, but the league will be very young this year.

[ACCBBallFan]

It's going to be a wide open race and you can make a case for a lot of teams in a lot of positions. If I had to guess, I'd feel comfortable with the following:

1 -- North Carolina almost has to be picked No. 1 on paper. It's not that they're overpowering -- they lost their two starting forwards off a team that only tried for the regular season title last year and didn't add any significant player. Still, they return Hansbrough in the post and their backcourt of Lawson and Ellington ought to be better as sophs. Plus they get a healthy Bobby Fraser back after he was hobbled all season and have guys like Thompson, Ginyard, Stepheson and Green who can all play. They're beatable, but they start the year with the target as the preseason favorite.

2 -- The second tier of Duke, Clemson, N.C. State ... you can make a case for any of these three for second, third, fourth. They all have some strengths, but they also have weaknesses. For instance, NC State returns four starters off a team that finished very strong and added a prep All-American big man. But State wasn't very good last year when Atsur didn't play and now he's gone. They've got three PG candidates, but none is a lock to do the job. Clemson loose Hamilton off a middle-of-the-road team, but they have a lot of depth back and they've gotten better every year under Purnell. Duke ... well, you guys know the pluses and minuses there.

3 -- I see a middle echelon of Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia and Florida State. I'd have Ga Tech a notch higher -- in fact, the clearcut No. 2 team in the league if Crittendon had returned. They are strong in the post and on the wings. Virginia has the best point guard in the league, but it looks like he's going to have to carry an even bigger scoring load.

4 -- My lower echelon has Wake, Va Tech, BC and Miami. I would have had Va Tech a notch higher, but the transfer of Munson -- the guy they were grooming as point guard -- is devastating.

The other thing you'd better check before getting too specific about your predictions is the schedule. A year ago, Virginia had by far the easiest ACC schedule and it made all the difference in their finish. I haven't studied this year's yet, but a friend told me that Georgia Tech had the easiest ACC schedule (and that Duke's in-league slate went from one of the toughest to a far easier one).

I pretty much agree with these tiers. MD and GA Tech are artificially higher than I would have thought due to their very favorable ACC unbaanced schedule a la UVA last year.

1. UNC (14-2) two wins and 2 losses @ NCS, @ GT @ CL and @ DU

2T. Duke (10-6) losses @ UNC, @ NCS, @MD, @UVA plus a couple more due to youth, weakness in post, possible UNC Sweep, MD or upset @ VA Tech or @ FSU which has happened in past few years.

2T. GA T (10-6) losses @ CL, @ UVA, @BC, @ DU, @ NCS (relatively favorable unbalanced ACC schedule) plus one more loss due to PG problem, history of losing close games and losing on road.

2T. NCS (10-6) losses @UNC, @ CL, @ DU, @ BC, @ MD, @ UVA plus maybe more due to PG

2T. Clemson (10-6) losses @ GA T, @ UNC, @NCS, @ DU,@ MD, @ UVA, but no history of winning in ACC after cupcake OOC.

6. MD (8-8) road losses @DU, @ UVA, @ BC, @ GA T, @ UNC, @UM, @ WF, @ VA T, but Gary sometimes over achieves vis a vis his team’s talent, particularly vs. Duke, but not against Clemson.

7. UVA (7-9) road losses @ VA T, @ MD, @ BC, @DU, @ GA T, @FSU, @ UM, @ WF plus at home vs. UNC but Singletary may single handedly win one of these.

8T. BC (6-10) losses @ MD, UNC (2), @UVA, @ CL, @ DU, @ UM, @ VA Tech, @ FSU plus one more since Rice is always double teamed, with no one to pass to for an assist.

8T. VA T (6-10) @UVA, @BC, GA T(2), @ MD, @ WF, @ CL, @ UNC, @ NCS, home vs. DU

10T. WF (5-11) losses GA T(2), NCS (2), @ FSU, @MD, @ VA T, vs. DU, @ BC, @ CL, @ UNC

10T. FSU (5-11) losses ) @UM, CL(2), UNC(2), NCS(2), @ WF, vs. DU, @ GA T, @MD, @UVA with one upset

10T. Miami (5-11) losses @BC, @ FSU, CL(2), DU (2), GA T(2), vs. UNC, @NCS, @ VA T, @ WF with one upset

[gep]

1. Duke

2 to 11. (anyone but UNC)

12. UNC

After all, *anything* can happen. Patrick Davidson vs Chris Paul, anyone?

(I *am* sorry if I hijacked a well-meaning thread... I am just a Duke fan and always a pure optimist)

[just_wondering]

[QUOTE=ACCBBallFan;35592]I pretty much agree with these tiers. MD and GA Tech are artificially higher than I would have thought due to their very favorable ACC unbaanced schedule a la UVA last year.

1. UNC (14-2) two wins and 2 losses @ NCS, @ GT @ CL and @ DU

2T. Duke (10-6) losses @ UNC, @ NCS, @MD, @UVA plus a couple more due to youth, weakness in post, possible UNC Sweep, MD or upset @ VA Tech or @ FSU which has happened in past few years.

2T. GA T (10-6) losses @ CL, @ UVA, @BC, @ DU, @ NCS (relatively favorable unbalanced ACC schedule) plus one more loss due to PG problem, history of losing close games and losing on road.

2T. NCS (10-6) losses @UNC, @ CL, @ DU, @ BC, @ MD, @ UVA plus maybe more due to PG

2T. Clemson (10-6) losses @ GA T, @ UNC, @NCS, @ DU,@ MD, @ UVA, but no history of winning in ACC after cupcake OOC.

6. MD (8-8) road losses @DU, @ UVA, @ BC, @ GA T, @ UNC, @UM, @ WF, @ VA T, but Gary sometimes over achieves vis a vis his team’s talent, particularly vs. Duke, but not against Clemson.

7. UVA (7-9) road losses @ VA T, @ MD, @ BC, @DU, @ GA T, @FSU, @ UM, @ WF plus at home vs. UNC but Singletary may single handedly win one of these.

8T. BC (6-10) losses @ MD, UNC (2), @UVA, @ CL, @ DU, @ UM, @ VA Tech, @ FSU plus one more since Rice is always double teamed, with no one to pass to for an assist.

8T. VA T (6-10) @UVA, @BC, GA T(2), @ MD, @ WF, @ CL, @ UNC, @ NCS, home vs. DU

10T. WF (5-11) losses GA T(2), NCS (2), @ FSU, @MD, @ VA T, vs. DU, @ BC, @ CL, @ UNC

10T. FSU (5-11) losses ) @UM, CL(2), UNC(2), NCS(2), @ WF, vs. DU, @ GA T, @MD, @UVA with one upset

10T. Miami (5-11) losses @BC, @ FSU, CL(2), DU (2), GA T(2), vs. UNC, @NCS, @ VA T, @ WF with one upset[/QUOTE

Rule of Thumb -- since Gary got to College Park if the Terps are not seriously overmatched by another ACC in talent team than they win. For some reason the last class was unable to follow in the Terp tradition and let UVA and Clemson off the hook. But Maryland had dominated both series before the slip up. Other than UNC the Terps are better or almost as good as every other team in the ACC. I expect 10-12 wins from this team

[ACCBBallFan]

Rule of Thumb -- since Gary got to College Park if the Terps are not seriously overmatched by another ACC in talent team than they win. For some reason the last class was unable to follow in the Terp tradition and let UVA and Clemson off the hook. But Maryland had dominated both series before the slip up. Other than UNC the Terps are better or almost as good as every other team in the ACC. I expect 10-12 wins from this team

You must be crystal balling a lot from Milbourne and the MD Freshmen.

Gist, Vasquez, Hayes, and maybe Osby are no match in talent to NCS, Clemson, GA Tech or Duke returnees:

Costner, McCauley, Grant, Fells and Hickson a top rated recruit, but alas no proven PG.

Mays, Booker, Rivers, Hammonds

Dickey, Jeremis Smith, Morrow, Clinch, Aminu the younger, Peacok, Faye, and a top recruit in Lawal, but again no proven PG.

Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson, McClure, Lance, Zoubek, Pocius and top recruits in Singler, Nolan SMith and Taylor King.

As I mentioned, GA Tech has the easiest and MD by far the second easiest unbalanced ACC schedule relative to the other 10 ACC teams, an advantage UVA capitalized on last year.

But no way MD only loses 4-6 ACC Games this year. Terps only went 10-6 last year and they lost a lot of experience and talent in Strawberry, Mike Jones, Ibekwe, their 7 foot backup Bowers and seldom used Parrish Brown.

[whereinthehellami]

i think wake is going to surprise some people this year. I really like their little pg and they have some athletes in their backcourt. They arent big though, but who is other than the tarheels.

I don't see it. They lose Visser, the only player on their team to average over 10 PPG (17 PPG). Visser was also the leading rebounder (7.4 RPG), no one else averaged over 5 RPG.

WFU also lost Drum, their 3rd leading scorer (8.5 PPG) and best shooter (48% from 3 and 85% FT). No one else shot over 40% from 3 or over 80% from the FT.

Their PG Smith is at best an okay shooter (43 % FG, 35% from 3, & 46% FT) and he wasn't that good with the ball (186 A to 112 TO). Although he will be a year older, he doesn't have Visser underneath anymore, WFU's best player by far last year.

As you said they have some returning athletes but none that are All-ACC caliber, Visser was it. Sure one or two could step up but it would have to be a major step to bump WFU out of the cellar.

WFU has some decent freshman coming in with Johnson (6-8) having the best shot at being a major factor but he will be a freshman and if he is decent, other teams will be able to double team if need be. I think WFU is at least a year away from being able to suprise anyone in the ACC.

If I'm WFU, I'm happy that BC is fielding a team this year, though I'm not sure Skinner actually wants to field a team this year.

[riverside6]

Wake Forest will need to see great play from a group of talented rising sophomores, and in particular Ish Smith, who I'm a big fan of.

That guy, probably moreso than any other ACC point guard, can create easy baskets with his ability to penetrate. If Gaudio can instill a defensive attitude to this team, they could win 6 games, but like you, I certainly don't see any more than that.

[riverside6]

just_wondering, I just don't see Maryland being a force this season. I'm not sure why either, although while Gist took a big step forward last season, I just don't see the big-time player that will take them to the 10 win plateau.

I certainly like Vasquez, and Hayes, to a lesser extent, but I'm not sure they are ready to control the tempo of a game. Also, the Terps were far too inconsistent in putting the ball in the basket last season, and after losing all the seniors, its hard to see a big jump in that area as they get younger.

[riverside6]

I'll guess I should take my stab at the standings, since everyone else is, although I'm not going to go as far as to put the records down...

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. Virginia
4. Clemson
5. NC State
6. Georgia Tech
7. Florida State
8. Maryland
9. Wake Forest
10. Boston College
11. Miami
12. Virginia Tech

It is so incredibly hard to do this sort of thing without seeing most of the lower ranked incoming freshmen. I'm ready to fast-forward to November though and get the season rolling!

[just_wondering]

just_wondering, I just don't see Maryland being a force this season. I'm not sure why either, although while Gist took a big step forward last season, I just don't see the big-time player that will take them to the 10 win plateau.

I certainly like Vasquez, and Hayes, to a lesser extent, but I'm not sure they are ready to control the tempo of a game. Also, the Terps were far too inconsistent in putting the ball in the basket last season, and after losing all the seniors, its hard to see a big jump in that area as they get younger.

Last year Maryland played well the first third of the season, horribly the middle third and then they played well again the last third. It was after the disastrous middle third that the leadership of the team passed to Gist-Vasquez-Hayes. They tired as the regular season ended but even in the two losses they had lost the deer in headlights look that had become too familiar since the graduation of the underappreciated Steve Blake.

The selection of Gist to the Pan Am demonstrates that he has stepped up as does the selection of Vasquez to the Venezuela national team. Milbourne was selected to the East Coast All Stars team touring Europe which indicates to me that he is starter material.
I think Cliff Tucker gives them the second most competitive roster in the ACC.

[riverside6]

I've always heard good things about Milbourne, but his inability to crack the rotation last season concerned me. Although, if I recall, he had a very nice dunk in the final minutes of a game last season.

You certainly make good points about the freshmen guards wearing down, so perhaps that is what happened.

[just_wondering]

I've always heard good things about Milbourne, but his inability to crack the rotation last season concerned me. Although, if I recall, he had a very nice dunk in the final minutes of a game last season.

You certainly make good points about the freshmen guards wearing down, so perhaps that is what happened.

I hear the complaints that this will be a down year for the ACC but I think that this will be a great year for the ACC. I am only a slightly delusional home-team biased fan in projecting the Terps to win 12 games. I think that the fans of 8 schools can believe that their team will finish first,second or third in the regular season without being labeled completely crazy.
My own opinion about the preseason projections is that in general Maryland is underrated and that NC State is overrated

[riverside6]

I think you're right about NC State. The assumption being made is that NC State at the end of the season is the team that will make an impact next season. Of course, people fail to recall the reason NC State played well was because Engin Atsur returned to action. Unless Atsur can get an 8th year of eligibility (he was there at least 7 years, right?), they will face the same problems again.

[ACCBBallFan]

6. MD (8-8) road losses @DU, @ UVA, @ BC, @ GA T, @ UNC, @UM, @ WF, @ VA T, but Gary sometimes over achieves vis a vis his team’s talent, particularly vs. Duke, but not against Clemson.

Upon further inspection, I can see how MD may win @ BC, @UM, @ WF, @ VA T. So if Terps could sweep at home with toughest games Duke, NCS and Clemson, that would get them to 12-4.

I would be willing to put them in the 10-6 category, give or take 1, along with Clemson, Duke, GA Tech and NC St, and in the hunt for second in ACC.

Of course NC ST and GA Tech would not concede the loss @ BC either.

Does not change my opinion ACC gets 6 and MD is one of them, unless UVA can win on the road which has historically been a problem for Vrginia.

7. UVA (7-9) road losses @ VA T, @ MD, @ BC, @DU, @ GA T, @FSU, @ UM, @ WF plus at home vs. UNC but Singletary may single handedly win one of these.

The same four road games @ VA T, @ BC, @ UM, @ WF could be winnable and UVA could also be in the hunt for that 7th ACC slot.

That would assume 7 very decent records and five in the 4-12 range or worse for BC, VA Tech, FSU, Miami and Wake.

So under the best case scenario for making ACC tournament, all the top half ACC teams win all their home games except UVA loses @ UNC.

1T. UNC (12-4) losses @ NCS, @ GT @ CL and @ DU

1T. Duke (12-4) losses @ UNC, @ NCS, @MD, @UVA

1T. GA T (12-4) losses @ CL, @ UVA, @ DU, @ NCS (relatively favorable unbalanced ACC schedule) .

1T. MD (12-4) losses @DU, @ UVA, @ GA T, @ UNC (relatively favorable unbalanced ACC schedule) .

5T. NCS (11-5) losses @UNC, @ CL, @ DU, @ MD, @ UVA

5T UVA (11-5) road losses @ MD, @DU, @ GA T, plus at home vs. UNC

7. Clemson (10-6) losses @ GA T, @ UNC, @NCS, @ DU,@ MD, @ UVA.

8T. VA T (4-12) UVA(2), @BC, GA T(2), MD(2), @ WF, @ CL, @ UNC, @ NCS, home vs. DU.

8T. FSU (4-12) losses @UM, CL(2), UNC(2), NCS(2), @ WF, vs. DU, @ GA T, @MD, home vs UVA,

10T. BC (3-13) losses MD(2), UNC (2), VA(2), @ CL, @ DU, @ UM, @ VA Tech, @ FSU plus home vs. GA T, NCS

10T. WF (3-13) losses GA T(2), NCS (2), @ FSU, MD,(2) @ VA T, vs. DU, @ BC, @ CL, @ UNC and home vs UVA

12. Miami (2-14) losses @BC, @ FSU, CL(2), DU (2), GA T(2), vs. UNC, vs MD, vs. UVA, @NCS, @ VA T, @ WF

I think my original projections are more likely but MD may do better than 8-8, and UVA may be 8-8 or slightly better, and if so, 7 ACC teams make the dance.