Both those teams are absolutely horrible. Last year we pounded a similarly bad team, Tulane.
But certainly Wake is a game we would have found a way to lose in the past, and FIU is probably in that category as well.
DUKE 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
304.0 24th Overall
114.8 111th Overall
37.0 32nd Overall
26.8 69th Overall
FIU 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
222.6 72nd Overall
146.4 82nd Overall
25.6 80th Overall
38.6 112th Overall
Memphis 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
179.3 113th Overall
121.5 102nd Overall
22.3 102nd Overall
34.8 105th Overall
Wake Forest 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
218.2 75th Overall
133.6 89th Overall
24.8 87th Overall
33.4 100th Overall
STANFORD 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS They are Ranked 18th with these stats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
197.8 98th Overall
128.0 94th Overall
26.0 74th Overall
15.3 21st Overall
NC CENTRAL 2-2 1st in the MEAC (no stats)
VIRGINIA 2012 OVERALL FBS RANKINGS
298.4 27th Overall
124.6 99th Overall
25.0 84th Overall
32.4 95th Overall
The stats are interesting, but the teams have played widely varying schedules. Virginia's schedule has been MUCH tougher than Duke's, though obviously they've lost more games.
A decent metric at this point of the season is the Sagarin ratings, which have Duke at # 86 and UVA at 85....though Virginia's strength of schedule is 23rd, Duke's 159. So I wouldn't pay too much attention
to the respective records.
Duke has beaten #128 (FIU), Memphis (173) , NCCU (232) and Wake (110). We lost to Stanford (14).
UVA has beaten Richmond (139), Penn St (36), and lost to TCU (15) GTech (61 and LaTech (51).
Duke is a 2.5 point favorite, which sounds about right for evenly matched teams playing in Derm.
There will be nothing easy about this game.
A few impressions about UVa's team:
Mike Rocco is a good QB; good size, good arm, mostly stays in the pocket, but can move around a bit and is not easy to bring down; Rocco did turn the ball over a few times when I saw him
Virginia, at least at that point in the season, was not very good running the ball; they struggle to make holes, and the running backs are nothing special.
They have a decent pass rush; like to use a variety of blitzes, and like to bring safeties and corner bakcs on blitzes occasionally
The Virginia defense overall is nothing special; if Duke can protect the passer, should be able to get receivers open, and should be some running room
They have a pretty good kicking game, both punting and FG kicking
I would agree with the betting line, and Budwom's observations; fairly even contest, and Duke definitely can win with a good effort.
Last edited by roywhite; 10-02-2012 at 10:00 AM.
Good info, Roy. I kind of prefer opponents who have less mobile QBs....we seem to have problems with fleet footed QBs who can take off the receivers are covered.
If Renfree is healthy, this should be an entertaining game.
It seems like Duke might be facing a change up in UVA's offense...specifically more air oriented. Cockrell must be licking his lips.
http://www.accsports.com/wires/20121...en-offense.php“That’s one of the things we talk about: where do you go from here, what are you looking at, personnel and things like that, and finding out what we do best,” London said earlier Monday. “We want to run the ball, but what do we do best in terms of moving the ball and with who in terms of the personnel?”
Personnel changes aren’t the only thing London might be contemplating.
Virginia opened up its playbook in the 44-38 loss to Louisiana Tech and the Cavaliers’ sudden offensive firepower seemed to suggest that they should consider airing the ball out more often.
So, am I crazy to think that Jela Duncan has been good enough to warrant refocusing our offense around him?
Seems like I must be overreacting, but 6.83 YPC is incredible. I'd like to see him get 15-20 touches on Saturday, if he can handle the workload; not only would it open up other aspects of the offense, but letting Duncan run also kind of seems like our most reliable offensive play right now (which is certainly not something you could have said about any of our RBs for a while!). Very exciting to have a player of his caliber emerging in our program.
Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!
Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
9F 9F 9F
"[T]he tarnished Tar Heels that bear little resemblance to the revered program built by Dean Smith."- Ashville Times
"UNC and the NCAA are trying to conceal that the fraud was specifically designed to pad the transcripts of varsity athletes" - Bloomberg
Hope our hobbled secondary is up to the task on Saturday.
UVA has been tearing it up in recruiting the last couple years too.
I'm certainly a fan of feeding the Snead, too. I just like Duncan more as an every down, between the tackles-type back because he seems more consistent - less explosive in the open field, but less likely to get stopped for no gain if the o-line doesn't open up a great hole. He's so powerful and is so good at getting yards after the 1st/2nd/3rd tackler that I generally feel like that giving him the ball will result in a positive outcome.
Fair point about the quality of run defenses, though. I don't imagine that Wake is quite as bad as the numbers suggest, given that they've played FSU, UNC and Army, but hopefully he'll be able to sustain his success. If he can even just reliably get 4-5 yards on most carries against middling ACC teams, it would be huge for us.
My Wife is a UVA Alum and we live relatively close to C-Ville. That being said, I've attended all of their home games this season (not planned just worked out that way).
They easily handled an unmotivated Richmond team to open the season. They were given the Penn State win.
Against La tech, they were rolling until the middle of the second quarter when London tried an on-side kick after scoring to go up 24-3. tech recovered, marched down and scored and never looked back. In the second half, Tech added a screen pass to the right side and exploited it all afternoon. Virginia made it close late, but they were not the same team in the second half.
This week should be interesting as I believe Phillip Simms is starting over Rocco. The news media in C-ville has been trying to create a QB controversy since he arrived there. His passes are much crisper and he puts more zip on the ball than Rocco's traditional "floaters." He looks fast, but doesn't appear to like to run, (or get his uniform dirty).
They have two outstanding Tight ends, (88 and 89) one in particular (#89?) who has made some pretty impressive catches this year. He seems to be Roc's go to guy in a pinch as I've seen him easily out jump every defender put on him. The tight ends are looked at more on 3rd down than the receivers. The WR corp is not as impressive as ours, they don't run well after the catch.
They like to run, but are much more impressive at the short passing game. I haven't seen Duke in person this year, but from what I read, this should be about as evenly matched team that Duke has played this year.