Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
1. Interesting, not sure how that would all get coordinated but there are certainly folks who know more than I do about that subject. (Okay, all subjects but that one in particular).

2. Maybe, maybe not. If I bet $5 for Duke to cover 9.5, but five of you bet $1 that it doesn't happen, have we really been predictive? Or have we set a line where it is worth my wager to bet one way with an equal amount of money (not necessarily people) willing to go the other way? So while I would say there is some correlation between odds and predictive intent, it is not a lock-step thing.

I would be curious to see the info referenced by mike88 to get a better understanding as well.
I would start with the Wikipedia entry on prediction markets. It references a paper by Justin Wolfers (economist now at U Michigan) on interpretation of prediction market prices (akin to the betting line) as probabilities. Then check out inTrade or other of the prediction market sites mentioned there- pretty interesting stuff