"Nothing could be more misdirected than a self-directed life." - Lewis Sperry Chafer
At some point, the other coverage teams are going to start double-teaming Blakeney to force other players to make a play.
All that said, I'd say this is the most realistic shot we've had at Tech in years, and I would not be surprised at all if we pulled out the win. I'm just not betting on it yet. If Cut can get this one, then I'll think we're 50/50 or better to beat at least one of GT, Miami or Carolina. That would be some good gravy, to get 7 wins against about the toughest schedule one could expect in the ACC.
Speaking of which, how does the conference cross-division scheduling work? Random draw on the 2 teams we don't get, or are they put together, so every third year we'll get neither Maryland nor BC like this season? Either way, I assume there's a very good chance we don't get both of GT and FSU again next season, right?
To add insult to injury, UVa's indoor practice facility (still under construction) is burning down as I type.
And just for fun, here's Conner's other TD:
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Also, I'd say that the average fan will do more than tip the cap and move on if we win this week. Perhaps to the faces of the hosts, but to each other here, there will be much rejoicing over the elusive 6th win.
I admire your humble optimism.
I am not one to brag and have many friends who are Va Tech fans so I won't be rubbing this game in anyone's face if Duke wins. But understand that is often the inclination of other fans cause that is just what being a fan of sports entails. As long as it is good natured and not just mean spirited have at it. Some can take it others can't. I was, coming into the season, not optimistic about Duke's odds of getting six wins but having seen them play in every game I've seen a real change in the direction of the program and the know how of the players to win. Cut sees it too, hence that is why I feel there is a strong probability. To achieve you must first believe and this team is actually believing and I say we should too. I certainly don't mean to slight Va Tech's chances. They have a very good probability too, but they aren't so far better than Duke right now where I can't say about the same thing about Duke. If any of that makes sense.
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Gambling lines are simple business propositions, determined to draw a roughly equal amount of dollars waged on either side of the equation so the house can squeeze a transactional profit without being outcome-determinative. It is not meant to be predictive.
I would like to see stats on the percentage of teams who "beat the spread" versus those who "cover" -- should be about equal, no?
(Recognize: I am a poly sci major and not a math guy).
Assuming that's roughly true, though, it means that about 50% of betters are wagering that VT wins by 10 or more. An equal number are wagering that they do not. Among the latter category are such results as VT winning by a small margin all the way up to us routing them.
Eat Mor Jonny.
Covered spread in every game except Stanford. Underdog vs Wake by 2.5 pts and Pk vs UVa. By definition for every team that beat the spread the other team did not, no? So, it's got to be even unless I'm misunderstanding the terminology (which is certainly possible).
Example: Duke plays Va Tech as 9.5-point underdog and loses by 8 points. Then, Duke would beat the spread, but VA Tech would have failed to cover (Duke lost by fewer than 9.5 points, while VA Tech failed to win by the appointed margin).
Exceptions would be when the spread is given in whole points, instead of half points (although that would be why you so frequently see the spreads given in .5-point increments), or when there's inordinate betting on one side, moving the spread significantly before game time, and a large number of bets fall in between two spreads; Example: Duke opens as 9.5-point 'dog, attracts a lot of bets, the spread decreases to 7 points, and then Duke loses by 8. Then Duke beats the spread in some bets, while VA Tech covers in others.
2. To the extent Vegas *is* trying to get equal action on each side, whereas the line is not meant to be exactly predictive, it would be pegged to be predictive of what the public at large thinks the actual difference is between the two teams, wouldn't it?
2. Maybe, maybe not. If I bet $5 for Duke to cover 9.5, but five of you bet $1 that it doesn't happen, have we really been predictive? Or have we set a line where it is worth my wager to bet one way with an equal amount of money (not necessarily people) willing to go the other way? So while I would say there is some correlation between odds and predictive intent, it is not a lock-step thing.
I would be curious to see the info referenced by mike88 to get a better understanding as well.
Eat Mor Jonny.