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  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Also our punter is awesome. Nine punts and their longest return is 6 yards?
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    For about a 47 yard average, too. Did he have 2 or 3 down inside the 20? I'm just glad his leg did not get tired or pull a groin muscle with 9 punts. That's a busy afternoon for him.
    Let's not forget the coverage team in those punting situations. Isaac Blakeney was a monster against UVA. It felt like every time UVA even tried to return a punt, Blakeney was right there for the quick stop.
    "Nothing could be more misdirected than a self-directed life." - Lewis Sperry Chafer

  2. #222
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Denver, CO
    At some point, the other coverage teams are going to start double-teaming Blakeney to force other players to make a play.

  3. #223
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Couldn't one just as easily say that Pitt and Cincy did Carolina a disfavor by humiliating the Hokies? Maybe they did bring their A game to Chapel Hill.

    I certainly don't think a Duke win next Saturday is very probable, even probable. But VT is 3-3 on merit. They have some flaws and are quite beatable.
    This seems a much more realistic approach here. Some of the comments above about us now being favored to walk into Blacksburg, where we haven't won in at least 60 years, and take a game, had me thinking back to the talk before another game this season, where we then went on the road, coughed the ball up 4 times and gave up 50 points. The difference is that the Hokies are uncharacteristically not a Top 20 team and Stanford is, but our guys, successful as they've been this season, are still the same banged up team without a history of the sort of conference victory some people now want to bestow upon them six days in advance. We appear to be a pretty good squad, and one that could very well find ourselves in a bowl come the holidays. But while VTU's not their traditional self, they've only had one "bad" loss (to Pitt); they lost by a field goal to a Top 20 team at a neutral site, and got a little bit buzzsawed by Carolina on the road on Saturday.

    All that said, I'd say this is the most realistic shot we've had at Tech in years, and I would not be surprised at all if we pulled out the win. I'm just not betting on it yet. If Cut can get this one, then I'll think we're 50/50 or better to beat at least one of GT, Miami or Carolina. That would be some good gravy, to get 7 wins against about the toughest schedule one could expect in the ACC.

    Speaking of which, how does the conference cross-division scheduling work? Random draw on the 2 teams we don't get, or are they put together, so every third year we'll get neither Maryland nor BC like this season? Either way, I assume there's a very good chance we don't get both of GT and FSU again next season, right?

  4. #224
    To add insult to injury, UVa's indoor practice facility (still under construction) is burning down as I type.

  5. #225
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by jafarr1 View Post
    At some point, the other coverage teams are going to start double-teaming Blakeney to force other players to make a play.
    I cannot remember if it was a punt or kick-off return, but Anthony Young-Wiseman made a very nice open field tackle on a Virginia returner. Issac Blakeney is a beast, but there are other guys capable of making a play.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  6. #226
    Quote Originally Posted by dpslaw View Post
    To add insult to injury, UVa's indoor practice facility (still under construction) is burning down as I type.
    The roof is on fire. Wonder if they need any water?

  7. #227
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I actually thought Vernon's first TD catch was more impressive than the second. It essentially was a jump ball and the Virginia DB had inside position. But Vernon just went up and took it away.

    I was reminded of all the times I've seen that play go the other way. A Duke DB in great position on a 50/50 ball but an athletically superior WR comes away with it. Just one play but perhaps symbolic of a change.
    As the ball was in air on both plays, I remember being fully aware of how absurd it was that I was expecting Vernon to come down with it... but I was still strangely confident that he somehow would. I don't know if football players get "in the zone" in the same way that basketball players occasionally do, but if they do, I'm pretty sure Vernon was in it on Saturday. You could just tell he was on another level from everyone else.

  8. #228
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Nashville
    And just for fun, here's Conner's other TD:


  9. #229
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Jacksonville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by 75Crazie View Post
    I think Carolina did us a definite disfavor by humiliating the Hokies. They will be more than ready for us. Your "very probable" win smacks of extreme over-confidence. If Duke brings its A or B game it will definitely be a game -- but I expect Tech to be bringing its A game as well.
    I am far from over confident but I will channel my inner Ozzie and be optimistic for a change. I believe a win is probable. Probable is not the same as definite and at least to me, leaves some margin for an alternative outcome.I don't think there is anything wrong with that or even being confident. Duke fans have hung their heads in shame for the better part of 50 years and now the team is playing very well, very smart and winning games. It is time for the fan base to show some confidence in the team and make some bold statements. I personally don't feel very probable is too bold. I'm not guaranteeing Duke will win. I just feel that they have a good chance/probability of doing so. I don't think Duke will beat the Hokies by 25, not on their home field, but I think they can win for sure. Again this isn't the same Duke team or the same Virginia Tech team. Duke is playing big-boy football, or at least closer to it than they have in years so we should embrace it and not be worried we are being disrespectful or that the opponent will be extra motivated because of something we say. I hope Tech does bring their A game and I hope that Duke does too. Then we will see whose better. No excuses just play. If Tech wins I'll tip my cap to them and move on to the next game. If Duke wins I'll tip my cap for a hard fought game and move on to the next game. No need to brag or boast, be happy, be disappointed but support and believe. That is all I'm suggesting.
    http://www.dukesportsblog.com/

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  10. #230
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Denver
    Quote Originally Posted by mkline09 View Post
    I am far from over confident but I will channel my inner Ozzie and be optimistic for a change. I believe a win is probable. Probable is not the same as definite and at least to me, leaves some margin for an alternative outcome.I don't think there is anything wrong with that or even being confident. Duke fans have hung their heads in shame for the better part of 50 years and now the team is playing very well, very smart and winning games. It is time for the fan base to show some confidence in the team and make some bold statements. I personally don't feel very probable is too bold. I'm not guaranteeing Duke will win. I just feel that they have a good chance/probability of doing so. I don't think Duke will beat the Hokies by 25, not on their home field, but I think they can win for sure. Again this isn't the same Duke team or the same Virginia Tech team. Duke is playing big-boy football, or at least closer to it than they have in years so we should embrace it and not be worried we are being disrespectful or that the opponent will be extra motivated because of something we say. I hope Tech does bring their A game and I hope that Duke does too. Then we will see whose better. No excuses just play. If Tech wins I'll tip my cap to them and move on to the next game. If Duke wins I'll tip my cap for a hard fought game and move on to the next game. No need to brag or boast, be happy, be disappointed but support and believe. That is all I'm suggesting.
    I believe what the poster is getting at is that if you believe a Duke victory is 'probable,' then you think the gamblers should be favoring Duke. Duke is something like a 9 point underdog right now. That's a pretty wide discrepancy between what you and an industry that is very good at getting the numbers right think.

    Also, I'd say that the average fan will do more than tip the cap and move on if we win this week. Perhaps to the faces of the hosts, but to each other here, there will be much rejoicing over the elusive 6th win.

    I admire your humble optimism.

  11. #231
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Jacksonville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dev11 View Post
    I believe what the poster is getting at is that if you believe a Duke victory is 'probable,' then you think the gamblers should be favoring Duke. Duke is something like a 9 point underdog right now. That's a pretty wide discrepancy between what you and an industry that is very good at getting the numbers right think.

    Also, I'd say that the average fan will do more than tip the cap and move on if we win this week. Perhaps to the faces of the hosts, but to each other here, there will be much rejoicing over the elusive 6th win.

    I admire your humble optimism.
    My use of probability has little to do with gamblers, as I am not one, and more to do with just sheer chance. Perhaps that is how it was taken or how probability is used but I'm using it in a more general sense. In years past Duke has been so bad I'd say they had little to no chance of winning this game, but I think there is a strong chance that they can win this year. I don't care, or pretend to understand what the boys in Vegas think, I look at the game based on this team versus that team and I've seen both play and I have to say I like Duke's team and thus their chance.

    I am not one to brag and have many friends who are Va Tech fans so I won't be rubbing this game in anyone's face if Duke wins. But understand that is often the inclination of other fans cause that is just what being a fan of sports entails. As long as it is good natured and not just mean spirited have at it. Some can take it others can't. I was, coming into the season, not optimistic about Duke's odds of getting six wins but having seen them play in every game I've seen a real change in the direction of the program and the know how of the players to win. Cut sees it too, hence that is why I feel there is a strong probability. To achieve you must first believe and this team is actually believing and I say we should too. I certainly don't mean to slight Va Tech's chances. They have a very good probability too, but they aren't so far better than Duke right now where I can't say about the same thing about Duke. If any of that makes sense.
    http://www.dukesportsblog.com/

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  12. #232
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Gambling lines are simple business propositions, determined to draw a roughly equal amount of dollars waged on either side of the equation so the house can squeeze a transactional profit without being outcome-determinative. It is not meant to be predictive.

    I would like to see stats on the percentage of teams who "beat the spread" versus those who "cover" -- should be about equal, no?

    (Recognize: I am a poly sci major and not a math guy).

    Assuming that's roughly true, though, it means that about 50% of betters are wagering that VT wins by 10 or more. An equal number are wagering that they do not. Among the latter category are such results as VT winning by a small margin all the way up to us routing them.
    "What, me worry?" -- Roy Williams

  13. #233
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I would like to see stats on the percentage of teams who "beat the spread" versus those who "cover" -- should be about equal, no?
    Here's Duke's results:
    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-....cfm/team/duke

    Covered spread in every game except Stanford. Underdog vs Wake by 2.5 pts and Pk vs UVa. By definition for every team that beat the spread the other team did not, no? So, it's got to be even unless I'm misunderstanding the terminology (which is certainly possible).

  14. #234
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    By definition for every team that beat the spread the other team did not, no? So, it's got to be even unless I'm misunderstanding the terminology (which is certainly possible).
    I think you're misunderstanding slightly. In almost every game, either one team covers, or the other beats the spread.
    Example: Duke plays Va Tech as 9.5-point underdog and loses by 8 points. Then, Duke would beat the spread, but VA Tech would have failed to cover (Duke lost by fewer than 9.5 points, while VA Tech failed to win by the appointed margin).
    Exceptions would be when the spread is given in whole points, instead of half points (although that would be why you so frequently see the spreads given in .5-point increments), or when there's inordinate betting on one side, moving the spread significantly before game time, and a large number of bets fall in between two spreads; Example: Duke opens as 9.5-point 'dog, attracts a lot of bets, the spread decreases to 7 points, and then Duke loses by 8. Then Duke beats the spread in some bets, while VA Tech covers in others.

  15. #235
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    Feb 2007
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    Denver, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I cannot remember if it was a punt or kick-off return, but Anthony Young-Wiseman made a very nice open field tackle on a Virginia returner. Issac Blakeney is a beast, but there are other guys capable of making a play.
    Didn't mean to imply that we didn't have others capable of making a play, only that Blakeney has been remarkable enough that other teams are going to start specifically scheming against him on punt returns.

  16. #236
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Gambling lines are simple business propositions, determined to draw a roughly equal amount of dollars waged on either side of the equation so the house can squeeze a transactional profit without being outcome-determinative. It is not meant to be predictive. ....
    1. I'd always heard that -- the house wants equal action on both sides. On The Devils Den message board before the Alabama game, however, there was a very interesting discussion about all this by some who seemed to be in the know, and who indicated that it is not always the case that Vegas wants equal action on both sides. Sometimes, Vegas picks a side, and wants to induce the betting public to pick the other side -- apparently that's how the *big* profits are made. The discussion came up in the context of "why is Alabama only favored by 24 over Duke" (which I thought was crazily, insanely low ... and which our 49-point deficit proved me right).

    2. To the extent Vegas *is* trying to get equal action on each side, whereas the line is not meant to be exactly predictive, it would be pegged to be predictive of what the public at large thinks the actual difference is between the two teams, wouldn't it?

  17. #237

    prediction markets

    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Gambling lines are simple business propositions, determined to draw a roughly equal amount of dollars waged on either side of the equation so the house can squeeze a transactional profit without being outcome-determinative. It is not meant to be predictive.

    I would like to see stats on the percentage of teams who "beat the spread" versus those who "cover" -- should be about equal, no?

    (Recognize: I am a poly sci major and not a math guy).

    Assuming that's roughly true, though, it means that about 50% of betters are wagering that VT wins by 10 or more. An equal number are wagering that they do not. Among the latter category are such results as VT winning by a small margin all the way up to us routing them.
    The idea of prediction markets is that the relative "action" on both sides of a wager ARE predictive of the outcome. There is now a fair bit of empirical research in this area, particularly from prediction markets for elections, and they seem to perform better than polling in advance of the "event"

  18. #238
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    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    1. I'd always heard that -- the house wants equal action on both sides. On The Devils Den message board before the Alabama game, however, there was a very interesting discussion about all this by some who seemed to be in the know, and who indicated that it is not always the case that Vegas wants equal action on both sides. Sometimes, Vegas picks a side, and wants to induce the betting public to pick the other side -- apparently that's how the *big* profits are made. The discussion came up in the context of "why is Alabama only favored by 24 over Duke" (which I thought was crazily, insanely low ... and which our 49-point deficit proved me right).

    2. To the extent Vegas *is* trying to get equal action on each side, whereas the line is not meant to be exactly predictive, it would be pegged to be predictive of what the public at large thinks the actual difference is between the two teams, wouldn't it?
    1. Interesting, not sure how that would all get coordinated but there are certainly folks who know more than I do about that subject. (Okay, all subjects but that one in particular).

    2. Maybe, maybe not. If I bet $5 for Duke to cover 9.5, but five of you bet $1 that it doesn't happen, have we really been predictive? Or have we set a line where it is worth my wager to bet one way with an equal amount of money (not necessarily people) willing to go the other way? So while I would say there is some correlation between odds and predictive intent, it is not a lock-step thing.

    I would be curious to see the info referenced by mike88 to get a better understanding as well.
    "What, me worry?" -- Roy Williams

  19. #239
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    1. Interesting, not sure how that would all get coordinated but there are certainly folks who know more than I do about that subject. (Okay, all subjects but that one in particular).

    2. Maybe, maybe not. If I bet $5 for Duke to cover 9.5, but five of you bet $1 that it doesn't happen, have we really been predictive? Or have we set a line where it is worth my wager to bet one way with an equal amount of money (not necessarily people) willing to go the other way? So while I would say there is some correlation between odds and predictive intent, it is not a lock-step thing.

    I would be curious to see the info referenced by mike88 to get a better understanding as well.
    Vegas tries to maximize profits - they do not always try to balance bets between the two teams. The house will adjust the lines to encourage action on one side or the other if they have a particular insight on a certain game. You can see this in public betting share and spread movements across weeks - i.e. sometimes the vast majority of the action is on one team (say hypothetically for Duke +10 this week) but despite this, Vegas might move the line to Duke +12, (effectively encouraging more bets on Duke) if they have a view that V-Tech is highly likely to cover even a 12pt spread. This approach, I believe, is much more rare than what they normally do which is balancing the bets to ensure they make a profit no matter which team wins on the VIG.

  20. #240
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by jafarr1 View Post
    Didn't mean to imply that we didn't have others capable of making a play, only that Blakeney has been remarkable enough that other teams are going to start specifically scheming against him on punt returns.
    I used your post as a vehicle to give Anthony Young-Wiseman props for a great open field tackle. I wasn't trying to call you out and apologize if that is how my post came across.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

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