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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    First time I've done football pools like this.
    I'm all in on Baltimore to keep me alive in the one mistake pool.

    Jason, this is a great idea and lots of fun. I have to admit I thought this would be easy until at least mid way through the season.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by fuse View Post
    First time I've done football pools like this.
    I'm all in on Baltimore to keep me alive in the one mistake pool.

    Jason, this is a great idea and lots of fun. I have to admit I thought this would be easy until at least mid way through the season.

    I also am going with Baltimore this week My strategy from here on out in the "1-mistake" pool is to pick against Cleveland until they actually win a game and prove me wrong, then I'll probably go with whatever team(s) is playing KC or maybe NO(as I think they are almost as bad as Clev).
    Last edited by BlueDevilBrowns; 09-25-2012 at 10:27 PM. Reason: repetitive thinking

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevilBrowns View Post
    I also am going with Baltimore this week My strategy from here on out in the "1-mistake" pool is to pick against Cleveland until they actually win a game and prove me wrong, then I'll probably go with whatever team(s) is playing KC or maybe NO(as I think they are almost as bad as Clev).
    Not a bad strategy. I think Baltimore is the clear best pick this week, but I am hoping to stash them to use them later in the year and am taking Arizona over a woeful Miami team. It is a risk, that's for sure. Arizona may be due for a "come back to reality" game.

    -Jason "if this is hard, imagine how tough it is to make money gambling on football!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    I'm just posting to communicate how much I am going to miss posting in this thread this year. Being out of both contests by Week 3 really, really sucks. It was bad enough being relegated to the Loser's Contest with a Week 2 loss in the Real Contest, but to be tossed from the Loser's Contest in Week 3 really, really sucks.
    Bob Green

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Not a bad strategy. I think Baltimore is the clear best pick this week, but I am hoping to stash them to use them later in the year and am taking Arizona over a woeful Miami team. It is a risk, that's for sure. Arizona may be due for a "come back to reality" game.

    -Jason "if this is hard, imagine how tough it is to make money gambling on football!" Evans
    Have you seen Ryan Tannehill? When he's not playing a West Coast team traveling to Miami for a 1 PM game, I will happily pick against the Dolphins. I'm trying to decide if I want to go with the risk for a 4th week in a row and pick the Cardinals... I'm pretty sure that I will. Saving the "safe" picks for a few weeks has worked well so far. Baltimore scares me because they have a 4-day week - Sunday night to Thursday night. That's always a bit of a scary possibility to me.

    (In case you're wondering, I'm DUMBer than you)

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by PumpkinFunk View Post
    Have you seen Ryan Tannehill? When he's not playing a West Coast team traveling to Miami for a 1 PM game, I will happily pick against the Dolphins. I'm trying to decide if I want to go with the risk for a 4th week in a row and pick the Cardinals... I'm pretty sure that I will. Saving the "safe" picks for a few weeks has worked well so far. Baltimore scares me because they have a 4-day week - Sunday night to Thursday night. That's always a bit of a scary possibility to me.

    (In case you're wondering, I'm DUMBer than you)
    I'm avoiding Baltimore precisely because they're the overwhelming favorite. Those haven't been good picks for the last few weeks.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    I'm going with the Falcons (home against the Panthers). Given the disparity in the way those two teams have played so far, I'm surprised Atlanta is only the 4th-most picked team this week.

    (I say this all firmly knocking on wood, of course).
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    I'm going with the Falcons (home against the Panthers). Given the disparity in the way those two teams have played so far, I'm surprised Atlanta is only the 4th-most picked team this week.

    (I say this all firmly knocking on wood, of course).
    My guess is that's because Atlanta was already picked by a lot of people.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by PumpkinFunk View Post
    My guess is that's because Atlanta was already picked by a lot of people.
    In which game? Road at KC? Home to Denver? Road at San Diego? I bet Atlanta has not been picked very much at all so far.

    Vegas certainly has not had Atlanta as a big favorite in any of the games this season.

    The Falcons were a 2 point fave at KC.
    They were a 3 point pick over Denver.
    This past Sunday they were a 3 point underdog at San Diego.

    None of those lines would seem like games that would attract a lot of interest in Survivor pools.

    Now, this week the Falcons are an 8 point favorite and they are at home. They are the 3rd biggest favorite on the board (Baltimore is a 12.5 point fave over Cleveland and Houston is 13.5 over Tennessee). Both Arizona (minus 7 versus Miami) and Denver (minus 7 against Oakland) are similar picks to the Falcons.

    My concern with the Falcons pick is that I still think Carolina is a decent team and they should win 6 or so games, at least. In the NFL, decent teams rise up and beat very good ones all the time. I prefer to pick against really bad teams if I can -- the kind of teams that seem to be on their way to winning only 3 or so games.

    I also happen to think that the Falcons have been riding an unusually strong wave of opponent turnovers the past few weeks. I cannot imagine they will continue to get 3+ turnovers per game from their opponents. The Falcons are an absurd +10 in turnover margin THROUGH THREE GAMES!! A regression to the mean is going to happen at some point and could hit them this week against the Panthers.

    OF course, this discussion makes no sense as I have nothing to gain by talking you out of a Falcons pick if I think they might lose... so this whole post could be a sham

    -Jason "but it isn't... I am very worried that the Falcons will throw out a clunker of a game in the next few weeks -- I just don't know when it will happen" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  10. #50
    I ended up deciding not to go with the Cardinals and going with the Ravens. It just felt so safe and so clear - I mean, it's Brandon Weeden. He's awful.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by PumpkinFunk View Post
    I ended up deciding not to go with the Cardinals and going with the Ravens. It just felt so safe and so clear - I mean, it's Brandon Weeden. He's awful.
    Ravens only leading 9-7 at halftime... anybody sweating?!?!

    -Jason
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ravens only leading 9-7 at halftime... anybody sweating?!?!

    -Jason
    It was closer than I would have liked... but it feels really good to get the W out of the way on Thursday night! Especially with all the carnage the past 2 weeks.

  13. #53
    In the no error league, 2 of us chose the Ravens, 2 of us chose the Cardinals. It would be shocking to me if Miami beat Arizona, but given the (lack of) ability of both starting QBs, anything is possible there. I'd be happy if the Dolphins won, if only because it would eliminate some more teams.

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    I'm going with the Falcons (home against the Panthers). Given the disparity in the way those two teams have played so far, I'm surprised Atlanta is only the 4th-most picked team this week.

    (I say this all firmly knocking on wood, of course).
    A big thank you to Ron Rivera for keeping me in the competition by not going for it on 4th and 1.

    For this coming week, I'd love to pick against the Jets or Browns, but I've already taken both the Texans and the Giants. For me, the choice is between the Bengals (hosting Miami) and the 49ers (hosting the Bills). While I think the Niners are a somewhat safer pick, I don't see anything on the Bengals schedule going forward where I'd be thrilled to pick them (only "easy" remaining home game after this week is against the Raiders; they do get the Browns once more but that's on the road), while the Niners have home contests left with both St. Louis and Miami that I'd like to keep in my back pocket. Playing for the future isn't always the best strategy, but I'd rather keep the 49ers in my back pocket for a while, so I'm going with the Bengals.

    ETA: Minnesota (hosting Tennessee) could be a good pick too, but I'm just not quite fully on the Viking bandwagon.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  15. #55
    So is whatever your using smart enough to not have a set deadline, but to operate within the schedule (so if I miss my pick today, all it does is pull tonight's teams off as options -- or if I don't make a pick all weekend, as long as I make it by 8:30 Monday night, I can pick one of those teams).

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by cf-62 View Post
    So is whatever your using smart enough to not have a set deadline, but to operate within the schedule (so if I miss my pick today, all it does is pull tonight's teams off as options -- or if I don't make a pick all weekend, as long as I make it by 8:30 Monday night, I can pick one of those teams).
    I believe the deadline is 1pm on Sunday (it might be 12 or 1230 on Sunday, I forget). If you do not pick tonight, it will take those teams away as options. But, you cannot wait until Monday night to make a pick or you will be eliminated.

    -Jason
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Lots of picks worth considering this week --

    • Cards on the road at the Rams. Not for me because I took the Cards last week but if you are a believer in this 4-0 team, StLou is not exactly a beast.
    • Bengals at home vs Dolphins. The Dolphins stink and Cincy looks pretty good. Very tempting.
    • Packers over Colts in Indy. No question who the better team is, but many people like to avoid picking teams on the road. Do you want to use a Packers pick this early in the season?
    • Ravens at KC. Again, a road team, but the Ravens appear to be one of the best teams in football. Is KC as bad as their 1-3 record indicates?
    • Falcons at Redskins. Road team that looked pretty mediocre and got quite lucky to win last week. I would not take the Falcons this week.
    • Bears at Jags. Road team but the Bears have looked excellent this year and the Jags are pretty bad. I already used my Bears pick so this is not an option for me.
    • Giants hosting Browns. What is not to like about this one, other than the fact that the Giants have seemed sorta mediocre so far this year? Most Yahoo users are picking this one, which may be a good reason to avoid it.
    • Vikings hosting Titans. Are you a Viking believer? Will you risk your pick on a team with Christian Ponder at QB?
    • Pats hosting Broncos. Is Manning starting to get in synch with his receivers? When was the last time NE was under .500 after 5 games of the season? Was Brady even born yet?
    • 49ers hosting Bills. San Fran really looks like one of the league's elite teams. Buffalo does not and they are traveling across the country. But, the Bills can be potent on offense at times and San Fran might have trouble keeping up.
    • Jets host Texans. Just what Mark Sanchez and the rest of the Jets O needs, the best defense in football coming to town!


    I would have a hard time arguing with anyone who picked any of those teams. It is all a matter of which one you like the most.

    -Jason "I bet at least 2 of the 11 listed end up losing... some folks are gonna be out after this week" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    I picked the Panthers. if I am going out, might as well go out swinging with my team.

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Lots of picks worth considering this week --

    • Cards on the road at the Rams. Not for me because I took the Cards last week but if you are a believer in this 4-0 team, StLou is not exactly a beast.


    -Jason "I bet at least 2 of the 11 listed end up losing... some folks are gonna be out after this week" Evans
    Down goes Zona. Anyone pick them?
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  20. #60
    I'm taking the Giants. It feels like the safest home team to me, and I just cannot see Brandon Weeden beating them. Picking against Brandon Weeden has worked out well for me thus far, and I'm not changing that strategy now.

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