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  1. #81
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    Jan 2009
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    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    If there were ever a time when past events don't predict future events, specifically in terms of who will be on the final roster, I feel like it is 2016 Rio.

    A lot has changed since Colangelo took over 10 years ago...(A) Team USA's dominance has been re-asserted (B) Guys seem to be breaking down more due to injury in part from grueling training and the increased speed and strength of the game (C) Paul George's leg freaked everyone out (D) The new collective bargaining agreement makes nearly every summer a huge one for contracts.

    It has certainly been established that these guys value the Olympics more than the World Cup. The last 2 World Cup rosters featured 12 entirely new faces for Team USA. The last 2 Olympic teams were basically 5 players from the prior Olympic team, 5 from the World Championship team and 1-2 entirely new faces. My gut tells me that we will see more new faces this time around, and that guys who already have Olympic gold medals will sit it out to rest, deal with contracts, avoid overuse, etc.

    Steph Curry missed the 2012 cycle because of injury. He also played second fiddle to Kyrie, at K's behest, this past summer. Who knows how that sat with him? I can't imagine that he liked it much. But, I do think Kyrie's injury keeps him out. As others have said, he is now officially injury prone and this current one is really serious. Back to Steph, this time next year he may be coming off back to back titles and lots of games. Will the Olympic gold, and the prospect of it being his team to lead, be enough of a lure...I say yes, but it's no gimme.

    I also think Anthony Davis comes back for a final Team USA appearance. He'll likely have established himself as the most dominant player in the NBA by next summer and, along with Curry, will be the face of the team.

    As for the other 2012 Olympians, I don't think many will be back, here's the list:
    Anthony, Bryant, Chandler, Davis, Durant, Harden, Iguodala, James, Love, Paul, Westbrook, Williams

    Of these guys, considering he won't have played any playoff games for years, maybe Carmelo plays the role of the wise vet, but he also seems like the type who wouldn't want to go if his friends weren't there. Other than that, I too think Harden and Westbrook are the best bets and both are signed through 2017 so they shouldn't have that looming next year.

    Here's the 2014 World Cup squad:
    Cousins, Curry, Davis, DeRozan, Drummond, Faried, Gay, Harden, Irving, Plumlee, Rose, Thompson

    Of this group, aside from Curry/Davis/Harden, I go with Cousins (likely not to be in the playoffs again) and Thompson (wants that Olympic Gold). Maybe Faried.

    Then there are the guys who participated last summer but got cut or hurt:
    George, Hayward, Korver, Wall, Beal, Lillard, Millsap, Parsons

    You never know if these guys are going to be interested - I bet Wall never comes back, he's talked like he felt slighted.

    Don't forget about the 2014 Select Team who scrimmaged the main pool guys:
    Harry Barnes, Trey Burke, Draymond, Hardaway Jr., Tobias Harris, McBuckets, Oladipo, MP2, Marcus Smart, Dion Waiters, Cody Zeller

    Then there are the guys who have said no in the past, and I don't expect them to change their minds:
    Kawhi, LaMarcus

    Then there are the rookies, many with Team USA experience, I assume a bunch of these guys will be involved this summer:
    Russell, Okafor, Winslow, Myles Turner, Cauley-Stein, Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Cam Payne, Stanley Johnson, etc.

    Whew...that's a lot of different buckets.

    Prediction:
    Backcourt:
    Curry, Thompson, Westbrook, Harden, Lillard, Winslow

    Frontcourt:
    Davis, Cousins, Draymond Green, Anthony, Hayward, Okafor

    Doesn't K have to go out in a blaze of glory by, again, taking 2 of his Duke guys?

    As for competition, it may not be this year, but I keep beating the drum for the Canadian talent pool:

    Tristan Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Andrew Nicholson, Nik Stauskas, Kelly Olynk, Robert Sacre, Corey Joseph, Anthony Bennett, etc. Unlike the other countries, these guys didn't grow up playing together so they lack that cohesion, but the talent is there and everytime I watch one of these younger Intl competitions, the Canadians are the ones who look the most formidable.
    Nice analysis. I believe you can add Trey Lyles to the Canadian pipeline, though he may have competed for both countries in the past. I expect he would compete for Canada in the future due to more opportunities.
    Last edited by NSDukeFan; 06-18-2015 at 12:54 PM. Reason: More has an e in it

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    As for competition, it may not be this year, but I keep beating the drum for the Canadian talent pool:

    Tristan Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Andrew Nicholson, Nik Stauskas, Kelly Olynk, Robert Sacre, Corey Joseph, Anthony Bennett, etc. Unlike the other countries, these guys didn't grow up playing together so they lack that cohesion, but the talent is there and everytime I watch one of these younger Intl competitions, the Canadians are the ones who look the most formidable.
    Don't most of the Toronto players come out of the same AAU program? Not the same as playing on a club team together, but still.

  3. #83
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    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Don't most of the Toronto players come out of the same AAU program? Not the same as playing on a club team together, but still.
    I don't know. "Canada - Sleeping FIBA Giant" would be a great article for someone to write. After his experience with USA Basketball, I know that Jay Triano is up there trying to create a similar model.

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by awhom111 View Post
    The forgotten name here is Carmelo. Whatever criticisms that people have of his NBA play, they seem to disappear in this setting. Of course health will be an issue for him too, but I think that if he is in shape and capable, we will not exclude him solely due to age.
    Just an embarrassment of riches at guard and forward. I'm guessing most of the guys with 2 golds will opt out...this would be lebron and melo's 4th olympics and I'm guessing they'll focus on other mountains to climb, especially at their age.

    I also don't think we'll exclude anyone due to age; guys will be selected based on skill and fit. Having just won a natty at 68 I don't think K factors age into the equation too much

  5. #85
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    Feb 2007
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    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    Just an embarrassment of riches at guard and forward. I'm guessing most of the guys with 2 golds will opt out...this would be lebron and melo's 4th olympics and I'm guessing they'll focus on other mountains to climb, especially at their age. ...
    How many Gold's does MJ have?

    I'll bet Lebron knows.

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    The Northwest
    Some great posts in here already about the team prospects (especially Billy Dat) and about international competition (especially Cdu). I think a great point was made about how many top other countries have 3-4 really good players but nowhere near the depth of the USA. Of course it's also a competition that turns into a single elimination tournament, like the Big Dance - and we've seen many times where one team just has one big game there.

    I think the two biggest factors are going to be health and contracts. While I think a lot of these guys love playing for the country and with each other and for Coach K, the risk of getting hurt does loom large, especially after George, and guys with injury histories will bail as well as guys looking at big free agency opportunities coming up who don't want to risk it. But obviously we don't know what injuries may come between then and now and I don't know everyone's contract info (and even if I did, no telling about guys signing deals/extensions before then).

    So blindly without all that, here is my guess for the roster:

    Guards: Curry, Westbrook, Lillard, Paul
    Wings: Harden, Durant, Lebron, Thompson,
    Posts: Griffin, Davis, Faried, Okafor

  7. #87
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    Nov 2013
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    The Northwest
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    How many Gold's does MJ have?

    I'll bet Lebron knows.
    Isn't it 2? Off the top of my head I think he got one in college and one on the Dream Team. Which would make him tied with lebron. And part of why I do expect Lebron to be back on the 2016 team (but I see it more like Kobe was in London).

  8. #88
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gurufrisbee View Post
    Isn't it 2? Off the top of my head I think he got one in college and one on the Dream Team. Which would make him tied with lebron. And part of why I do expect Lebron to be back on the 2016 team (but I see it more like Kobe was in London).
    Yes, Jordan has two: one with the 1984 team and one with the 1992 team.

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by gurufrisbee View Post
    Some great posts in here already about the team prospects (especially Billy Dat) and about international competition (especially Cdu). I think a great point was made about how many top other countries have 3-4 really good players but nowhere near the depth of the USA. Of course it's also a competition that turns into a single elimination tournament, like the Big Dance - and we've seen many times where one team just has one big game there.

    I think the two biggest factors are going to be health and contracts. While I think a lot of these guys love playing for the country and with each other and for Coach K, the risk of getting hurt does loom large, especially after George, and guys with injury histories will bail as well as guys looking at big free agency opportunities coming up who don't want to risk it. But obviously we don't know what injuries may come between then and now and I don't know everyone's contract info (and even if I did, no telling about guys signing deals/extensions before then).

    So blindly without all that, here is my guess for the roster:

    Guards: Curry, Westbrook, Lillard, Paul
    Wings: Harden, Durant, Lebron, Thompson,
    Posts: Griffin, Davis, Faried, Okafor
    I doubt we see Paul or Lebron in the team. Paul is hurt a lot and will want the offseason. Lebron will need more offseason time as well.

    Gaurds: Curry, Thompson, Lillard, Westbrook
    Wings: Harden, Durant, Leonard, George
    Forwards: Thompson, Cousins, Okafor, Davis

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by gocanes0506 View Post
    I doubt we see Paul or Lebron in the team. Paul is hurt a lot and will want the offseason. Lebron will need more offseason time as well.
    I'll be absolutely flabbergasted if LeBron is NOT on the roster. His role will diminish a bit, but he's still going to be the US headliner.

  11. #91
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I'll be absolutely flabbergasted if LeBron is NOT on the roster. His role will diminish a bit, but he's still going to be the US headliner.
    The only reason LeBron wouldn't be on the roster is if it is by his choice. As others have said, he has logged a LOT of minutes the past 5 years. He has not had an extended summer off since 2010 (when his Cavs lost in the 2nd round). He has been playing basketball into mid-June each summer for the past 5 years, and had an even longer summer in 2012. If the Cavs make it back to the Finals next summer, I could very well see him choosing to get some rest rather than put himself through more work in the Olympics.

    If he wants to play though, then yes, he'll absolutely be on the roster. It's just a question of his preference.

    The same is true for most of the other big names: Durant, Paul, Curry, etc. They'll be on the team if they want to be there. It's just a question whether wear and tear will lead them to choose not to participate.

  12. #92
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    Nov 2013
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    The Northwest
    Quote Originally Posted by gocanes0506 View Post
    I doubt we see Paul or Lebron in the team. Paul is hurt a lot and will want the offseason. Lebron will need more offseason time as well.

    Gaurds: Curry, Thompson, Lillard, Westbrook
    Wings: Harden, Durant, Leonard, George
    Forwards: Thompson, Cousins, Okafor, Davis
    I definitely think Lebron will play - even if it's like as the best 6th man ever. I also do think Leonard is the first choice if any of the guards/wings I listed weren't there.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    How many Gold's does MJ have?

    I'll bet Lebron knows.
    Quote Originally Posted by gurufrisbee View Post
    Isn't it 2? Off the top of my head I think he got one in college and one on the Dream Team. Which would make him tied with lebron. And part of why I do expect Lebron to be back on the 2016 team (but I see it more like Kobe was in London).
    Yes, its two. BD- do you really think besting MJ on the gold medal list is on Lebron's priority list?? Methinks not. No one talks about Olympic gold medals when they are comparing MJ/Russel/Wilt/Kareem. They talk about NBA championships, NBA MVPs, NBA Scoring titles, etc etc. I'll bet Lebron knows that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I'll be absolutely flabbergasted if LeBron is NOT on the roster. His role will diminish a bit, but he's still going to be the US headliner.
    Really?? You'd be flabbergasted if Lebron chose not to participate? So you think its 99.99% chance he's going to play--why?

    Quote Originally Posted by gurufrisbee View Post
    I definitely think Lebron will play - even if it's like as the best 6th man ever. I also do think Leonard is the first choice if any of the guards/wings I listed weren't there.
    OK now I'm flabbergasted. Lebron is currently the best player in the world, as he has been for about 5-10 years, and you think he might be the 6th man on team USA??

    Bartender--give me a double of what these guys are having...

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The only reason LeBron wouldn't be on the roster is if it is by his choice. As others have said, he has logged a LOT of minutes the past 5 years. He has not had an extended summer off since 2010 (when his Cavs lost in the 2nd round). He has been playing basketball into mid-June each summer for the past 5 years, and had an even longer summer in 2012. If the Cavs make it back to the Finals next summer, I could very well see him choosing to get some rest rather than put himself through more work in the Olympics.
    Surprised this even needed to be typed, but, yes, I agree.

  14. #94
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    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    Yes, its two. BD- do you really think besting MJ on the gold medal list is on Lebron's priority list?? Methinks not. No one talks about Olympic gold medals when they are comparing MJ/Russel/Wilt/Kareem. They talk about NBA championships, NBA MVPs, NBA Scoring titles, etc etc. I'll bet Lebron knows that.

    Really?? You'd be flabbergasted if Lebron chose not to participate? So you think its 99.99% chance he's going to play--why?

    OK now I'm flabbergasted. Lebron is currently the best player in the world, as he has been for about 5-10 years, and you think he might be the 6th man on team USA??

    Bartender--give me a double of what these guys are having...

    Surprised this even needed to be typed, but, yes, I agree.
    I agree with all of these responses and that's why I think Lebron won't play. The dude is straight up exhausted and has so many miles on his tires. Odds are he's gonna march right to the Finals again next year. Win or Lose, can you imagine him, right now, getting ready to report to Team USA in a few weeks? Even if the Cavs are healthy, he's playing 35 minutes a night in the playoffs.

    RE: Kawhi, I agree he'd be a shoe-in but San Antonio is not really a bastion of Team USA support. Duncan hated it, Pop got passed over for K, etc. Now, they are a big FIBA team (Manu, Parker, Tiago, Diaw, etc.) but when Kawhi passed last summer, it felt like a final answer.

    One guy I didn't mention anywhere is Mike Conley. He's not the classic FIBA PG as he is skinny, but it would be nice for him to get an invite to tryouts.

  15. #95
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    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I agree with all of these responses and that's why I think Lebron won't play. The dude is straight up exhausted and has so many miles on his tires. Odds are he's gonna march right to the Finals again next year. Win or Lose, can you imagine him, right now, getting ready to report to Team USA in a few weeks? Even if the Cavs are healthy, he's playing 35 minutes a night in the playoffs.

    s.
    The self-proclaimed and generally acknowledged "best player in the world" won't play in the Olympics? I think he'll play.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  16. #96
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I agree with all of these responses and that's why I think Lebron won't play. The dude is straight up exhausted and has so many miles on his tires. Odds are he's gonna march right to the Finals again next year. Win or Lose, can you imagine him, right now, getting ready to report to Team USA in a few weeks? Even if the Cavs are healthy, he's playing 35 minutes a night in the playoffs.

    RE: Kawhi, I agree he'd be a shoe-in but San Antonio is not really a bastion of Team USA support. Duncan hated it, Pop got passed over for K, etc. Now, they are a big FIBA team (Manu, Parker, Tiago, Diaw, etc.) but when Kawhi passed last summer, it felt like a final answer.

    One guy I didn't mention anywhere is Mike Conley. He's not the classic FIBA PG as he is skinny, but it would be nice for him to get an invite to tryouts.
    I agree with all of this. I would be a bit surprised if LeBron decided to play again in 2016. He would certainly be the best player on the team, but I think he'll be worn out. And more importantly, I think he knows that his legacy hinges on NBA success, not Olympic success. And recharging the batteries for another deep playoff run will probably win out over competing at Rio. I mean, he could still play, and I wouldn't be shocked if he did. But I'd say he's more likely to opt out than to opt in.

    And the same for Leonard. I don't expect him to suddenly decide he wants to play. Maybe that will change. But I would be surprised.

    I think Conley is an example of our depth. I don't think he'll get a sniff, but if he did I would say that he'd still be better than just about any other country's PG. We would be just fine with him at PG, but there are just so many good options ahead of him that it is hard to see him getting invited much less selected.

  17. #97
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    Dec 2009
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    New York
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I think Conley is an example of our depth. I don't think he'll get a sniff, but if he did I would say that he'd still be better than just about any other country's PG. We would be just fine with him at PG, but there are just so many good options ahead of him that it is hard to see him getting invited much less selected.
    The depth of the point guard position in the NBA right now amazes me. Something like half the league has a really, really good player at that spot. Of those that don't, such as Boston with Smart and Utah with Exum, a number have highly-drafted guys they've invested in for the future. PG is considered a critical position, yet more teams than not are pretty set. Strange state of affairs.

  18. #98
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    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I think Conley is an example of our depth. I don't think he'll get a sniff, but if he did I would say that he'd still be better than just about any other country's PG. We would be just fine with him at PG, but there are just so many good options ahead of him that it is hard to see him getting invited much less selected.
    Yeah, he needs the carousel to spin, but not maybe THAT much and it helps that the 2 guard spot is not the deepest in the NBA right now meaning that some of these dudes would be counted on to be combos. Here are some top PG rankings ESPN.com did in April (I excluded the non Americans):

    -Paul - can't see him going back again, too many miles
    -Curry - I say he's in, could also be a 2
    -Westbrook - on the fence but maybe
    -Wall - I think he's pissed about getting cut last year and might not go back
    -Conley - our man
    -Lillard - right there, could also be a 2
    -Lowry - in the mix
    -Irving - injury
    -Teague - not really involved in the program to date
    -Rose - I think his FIBA days are over

  19. #99
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Des Esseintes View Post
    The depth of the point guard position in the NBA right now amazes me. Something like half the league has a really, really good player at that spot. Of those that don't, such as Boston with Smart and Utah with Exum, a number have highly-drafted guys they've invested in for the future. PG is considered a critical position, yet more teams than not are pretty set. Strange state of affairs.
    I think a lot of that has to do with the rules changes, which have improved freedom of movement and allowed these incredibly gifted athletes to fluorish. Look no further than Kyrie Irving. He's a guy who would have been brutalized in the mid/late-90s with all the physical play that was allowed back then. But the rules changes (which have cut down on hand-checking and overly physical play on the perimeter) has allowed him to utilize those skills. Similar story for guys like Curry and Tony Parker. All guys who are/were not the biggest/strongest/fastest guys, but who have very good skills.

    Guys like Wall, Westbrook, and Rose (pre-injury) are/were physical freaks, but the "technicians" have really benefited from the NBA cleaning up the play on the perimeter. And the result is the plethora of brilliant playmakers we have.

    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    Yeah, he needs the carousel to spin, but not maybe THAT much and it helps that the 2 guard spot is not the deepest in the NBA right now meaning that some of these dudes would be counted on to be combos. Here are some top PG rankings ESPN.com did in April (I excluded the non Americans):

    -Paul - can't see him going back again, too many miles
    -Curry - I say he's in, could also be a 2
    -Westbrook - on the fence but maybe
    -Wall - I think he's pissed about getting cut last year and might not go back
    -Conley - our man
    -Lillard - right there, could also be a 2
    -Lowry - in the mix
    -Irving - injury
    -Teague - not really involved in the program to date
    -Rose - I think his FIBA days are over
    If I had to guess, I'd say Curry, Westbrook, and Lillard make the team. Irving, if healthy, would stand a good chance of taking Lillard's place. I'd put Conley, Lowry, and Teague in the next category. I am not sure what to think of Rose's NBA future, but I agree he is probably done playing FIBA ball. And I think you're right that Wall isn't going to show up to be snubbed again (by the way, I think DeMarcus Cousins deserves a ton of credit for how he's handled the possibility of getting snubbed, saying he'd keep coming back even if they cut him last summer).

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
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    Atlanta, GA
    I've enjoyed lurking on this thread for the past few days. Some really interesting thoughts, in particular, by Billy Dat.

    I finally have to comment though... I am surprised at how bullish people are on Curry. Yes, he's the NBA MVP, but he just didn't do much last summer; he doesn't seem to fit the mold of the playmaking and/or athletic guards that we've used in the past. I know he's sort of an anomaly, but he has been pretty ineffective in the international game. As we've all seen, it's a different game than the NBA.

    Which brings me to my next point... I'm surprised at how bearish (is that a word?) people are on Faried. The guy was one of our most important players in 2014. I just don't see how he's not in the rotation. His game is perfect for Team USA and the international game.

    Finally, kind of going along with the Faried point... I don't see Jah making the team at all. In the past, Coach K has preferred athletic bigs that can run and play above the rim in a manner that is favorable to the international (lack of) basket interference rules. Jah's old school game just doesn't seem to be suited for Team USA's style of play.

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