Last edited by NSDukeFan; 06-18-2015 at 12:54 PM. Reason: More has an e in it
Just an embarrassment of riches at guard and forward. I'm guessing most of the guys with 2 golds will opt out...this would be lebron and melo's 4th olympics and I'm guessing they'll focus on other mountains to climb, especially at their age.
I also don't think we'll exclude anyone due to age; guys will be selected based on skill and fit. Having just won a natty at 68 I don't think K factors age into the equation too much
Some great posts in here already about the team prospects (especially Billy Dat) and about international competition (especially Cdu). I think a great point was made about how many top other countries have 3-4 really good players but nowhere near the depth of the USA. Of course it's also a competition that turns into a single elimination tournament, like the Big Dance - and we've seen many times where one team just has one big game there.
I think the two biggest factors are going to be health and contracts. While I think a lot of these guys love playing for the country and with each other and for Coach K, the risk of getting hurt does loom large, especially after George, and guys with injury histories will bail as well as guys looking at big free agency opportunities coming up who don't want to risk it. But obviously we don't know what injuries may come between then and now and I don't know everyone's contract info (and even if I did, no telling about guys signing deals/extensions before then).
So blindly without all that, here is my guess for the roster:
Guards: Curry, Westbrook, Lillard, Paul
Wings: Harden, Durant, Lebron, Thompson,
Posts: Griffin, Davis, Faried, Okafor
The only reason LeBron wouldn't be on the roster is if it is by his choice. As others have said, he has logged a LOT of minutes the past 5 years. He has not had an extended summer off since 2010 (when his Cavs lost in the 2nd round). He has been playing basketball into mid-June each summer for the past 5 years, and had an even longer summer in 2012. If the Cavs make it back to the Finals next summer, I could very well see him choosing to get some rest rather than put himself through more work in the Olympics.
If he wants to play though, then yes, he'll absolutely be on the roster. It's just a question of his preference.
The same is true for most of the other big names: Durant, Paul, Curry, etc. They'll be on the team if they want to be there. It's just a question whether wear and tear will lead them to choose not to participate.
Yes, its two. BD- do you really think besting MJ on the gold medal list is on Lebron's priority list?? Methinks not. No one talks about Olympic gold medals when they are comparing MJ/Russel/Wilt/Kareem. They talk about NBA championships, NBA MVPs, NBA Scoring titles, etc etc. I'll bet Lebron knows that.
Really?? You'd be flabbergasted if Lebron chose not to participate? So you think its 99.99% chance he's going to play--why?
OK now I'm flabbergasted. Lebron is currently the best player in the world, as he has been for about 5-10 years, and you think he might be the 6th man on team USA??
Bartender--give me a double of what these guys are having...
Surprised this even needed to be typed, but, yes, I agree.
I agree with all of these responses and that's why I think Lebron won't play. The dude is straight up exhausted and has so many miles on his tires. Odds are he's gonna march right to the Finals again next year. Win or Lose, can you imagine him, right now, getting ready to report to Team USA in a few weeks? Even if the Cavs are healthy, he's playing 35 minutes a night in the playoffs.
RE: Kawhi, I agree he'd be a shoe-in but San Antonio is not really a bastion of Team USA support. Duncan hated it, Pop got passed over for K, etc. Now, they are a big FIBA team (Manu, Parker, Tiago, Diaw, etc.) but when Kawhi passed last summer, it felt like a final answer.
One guy I didn't mention anywhere is Mike Conley. He's not the classic FIBA PG as he is skinny, but it would be nice for him to get an invite to tryouts.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
I agree with all of this. I would be a bit surprised if LeBron decided to play again in 2016. He would certainly be the best player on the team, but I think he'll be worn out. And more importantly, I think he knows that his legacy hinges on NBA success, not Olympic success. And recharging the batteries for another deep playoff run will probably win out over competing at Rio. I mean, he could still play, and I wouldn't be shocked if he did. But I'd say he's more likely to opt out than to opt in.
And the same for Leonard. I don't expect him to suddenly decide he wants to play. Maybe that will change. But I would be surprised.
I think Conley is an example of our depth. I don't think he'll get a sniff, but if he did I would say that he'd still be better than just about any other country's PG. We would be just fine with him at PG, but there are just so many good options ahead of him that it is hard to see him getting invited much less selected.
The depth of the point guard position in the NBA right now amazes me. Something like half the league has a really, really good player at that spot. Of those that don't, such as Boston with Smart and Utah with Exum, a number have highly-drafted guys they've invested in for the future. PG is considered a critical position, yet more teams than not are pretty set. Strange state of affairs.
Yeah, he needs the carousel to spin, but not maybe THAT much and it helps that the 2 guard spot is not the deepest in the NBA right now meaning that some of these dudes would be counted on to be combos. Here are some top PG rankings ESPN.com did in April (I excluded the non Americans):
-Paul - can't see him going back again, too many miles
-Curry - I say he's in, could also be a 2
-Westbrook - on the fence but maybe
-Wall - I think he's pissed about getting cut last year and might not go back
-Conley - our man
-Lillard - right there, could also be a 2
-Lowry - in the mix
-Irving - injury
-Teague - not really involved in the program to date
-Rose - I think his FIBA days are over
I think a lot of that has to do with the rules changes, which have improved freedom of movement and allowed these incredibly gifted athletes to fluorish. Look no further than Kyrie Irving. He's a guy who would have been brutalized in the mid/late-90s with all the physical play that was allowed back then. But the rules changes (which have cut down on hand-checking and overly physical play on the perimeter) has allowed him to utilize those skills. Similar story for guys like Curry and Tony Parker. All guys who are/were not the biggest/strongest/fastest guys, but who have very good skills.
Guys like Wall, Westbrook, and Rose (pre-injury) are/were physical freaks, but the "technicians" have really benefited from the NBA cleaning up the play on the perimeter. And the result is the plethora of brilliant playmakers we have.
If I had to guess, I'd say Curry, Westbrook, and Lillard make the team. Irving, if healthy, would stand a good chance of taking Lillard's place. I'd put Conley, Lowry, and Teague in the next category. I am not sure what to think of Rose's NBA future, but I agree he is probably done playing FIBA ball. And I think you're right that Wall isn't going to show up to be snubbed again (by the way, I think DeMarcus Cousins deserves a ton of credit for how he's handled the possibility of getting snubbed, saying he'd keep coming back even if they cut him last summer).
I've enjoyed lurking on this thread for the past few days. Some really interesting thoughts, in particular, by Billy Dat.
I finally have to comment though... I am surprised at how bullish people are on Curry. Yes, he's the NBA MVP, but he just didn't do much last summer; he doesn't seem to fit the mold of the playmaking and/or athletic guards that we've used in the past. I know he's sort of an anomaly, but he has been pretty ineffective in the international game. As we've all seen, it's a different game than the NBA.
Which brings me to my next point... I'm surprised at how bearish (is that a word?) people are on Faried. The guy was one of our most important players in 2014. I just don't see how he's not in the rotation. His game is perfect for Team USA and the international game.
Finally, kind of going along with the Faried point... I don't see Jah making the team at all. In the past, Coach K has preferred athletic bigs that can run and play above the rim in a manner that is favorable to the international (lack of) basket interference rules. Jah's old school game just doesn't seem to be suited for Team USA's style of play.