2016 Olympic BB Team Roster

[Ben1029]

What if the countries could bring 2 teams if they were able to qualify. They do it in track. Wouldn't you want to watch USA 1 VS USA 2 in the finals?

[Troublemaker]

Was thinking about the 2016 Rio roster this morning.

Steph Curry was not on the 2012 London team, so he currently possesses no Olympic Gold. I have to think he's in if healthy.

Harden and Anthony Davis WERE on the 2012 team but barely played. Especially Davis, who was only 19-yrs-old at the time and was basically playing the role of Laettner on the Dream Team. Harden and Davis should be in, especially Davis.

Paul George already committed at the time of his injury that he'll be back.

Durant will probably play since he skipped out on the 2014 World Cup. He's a gym rat and loves playing, and USA had promoted him as the face of USA basketball for this cycle. Also, Monty Williams is now the lead assistant for Billy Donovan on OKC, so there's that relationship as well.

So, the starting lineup for the 2016 Rio team might/should be:

PG - Curry
SG - Harden
SF - George
PF - Durant
C - Davis

Kyrie and Klay both have zero Olympic Golds and can be the perimeter players off the bench.

Ditto Faried and Cousins to be the backup bigs.

That team's going to be tough to beat.

[BD80]

Was thinking about the 2016 Rio roster this morning.

Steph Curry was not on the 2012 London team, so he currently possesses no Olympic Gold. I have to think he's in if healthy.

Harden and Anthony Davis WERE on the 2012 team but barely played. Especially Davis, who was only 19-yrs-old at the time and was basically playing the role of Laettner on the Dream Team. Harden and Davis should be in, especially Davis.

Paul George already committed at the time of his injury that he'll be back.

Durant will probably play since he skipped out on the 2014 World Cup. He's a gym rat and loves playing, and USA had promoted him as the face of USA basketball for this cycle. Also, Monty Williams is now the lead assistant for Billy Donovan on OKC, so there's that relationship as well.

So, the starting lineup for the 2016 Rio team might/should be:

PG - Curry
SG - Harden
SF - George
PF - Durant
C - Davis

Kyrie and Klay both have zero Olympic Golds and can be the perimeter players off the bench.

Ditto Faried and Cousins to be the backup bigs.

That team's going to be tough to beat.

Did LeBron ever say he wasn't going to play?

He is interested in Team accomplishments. Another gold medal would mean something to him.

He loves playing for Team USA and for Coach K. He enjoys it when he doesn't have to be the primary scoring option.

He will have signed his next big contract, no financial risk.

Olympic Gold continues to boost his brand.

The games are in freakin RIO baby. This could be the best party for athletes EVER.

I pencil LeBron in at the 4 and slide KD to the 3.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Was thinking about the 2016 Rio roster this morning.

Steph Curry was not on the 2012 London team, so he currently possesses no Olympic Gold. I have to think he's in if healthy.

Harden and Anthony Davis WERE on the 2012 team but barely played. Especially Davis, who was only 19-yrs-old at the time and was basically playing the role of Laettner on the Dream Team. Harden and Davis should be in, especially Davis.

Paul George already committed at the time of his injury that he'll be back.

Durant will probably play since he skipped out on the 2014 World Cup. He's a gym rat and loves playing, and USA had promoted him as the face of USA basketball for this cycle. Also, Monty Williams is now the lead assistant for Billy Donovan on OKC, so there's that relationship as well.

So, the starting lineup for the 2016 Rio team might/should be:

PG - Curry
SG - Harden
SF - George
PF - Durant
C - Davis

Kyrie and Klay both have zero Olympic Golds and can be the perimeter players off the bench.

Ditto Faried and Cousins to be the backup bigs.

That team's going to be tough to beat.

Agreed on all fronts except for Durant. I'd be shocked if Durant played, and not because he doesn't have the talent nor the drive. It's all about his injuries, which are probably second in severity only to Derrick Rose. Foot injuries are some of the worst, and history hasn't been kind to NBA players: http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-...durants-injury

Durant needs rest, and I'd figure that he'd rather rest his foot than play a full season PLUS a full Olympic schedule post-surgery.

So, if I had to guess, I'm going with the following line-up

PG - Irving
SG - Curry
SF - Harden
PF - George (only if healthy)
C - Davis

[COYS]

Was thinking about the 2016 Rio roster this morning.

Steph Curry was not on the 2012 London team, so he currently possesses no Olympic Gold. I have to think he's in if healthy.

Harden and Anthony Davis WERE on the 2012 team but barely played. Especially Davis, who was only 19-yrs-old at the time and was basically playing the role of Laettner on the Dream Team. Harden and Davis should be in, especially Davis.

Paul George already committed at the time of his injury that he'll be back.

Durant will probably play since he skipped out on the 2014 World Cup. He's a gym rat and loves playing, and USA had promoted him as the face of USA basketball for this cycle. Also, Monty Williams is now the lead assistant for Billy Donovan on OKC, so there's that relationship as well.

So, the starting lineup for the 2016 Rio team might/should be:

PG - Curry
SG - Harden
SF - George
PF - Durant
C - Davis

Kyrie and Klay both have zero Olympic Golds and can be the perimeter players off the bench.

Ditto Faried and Cousins to be the backup bigs.

That team's going to be tough to beat.

Hmm, the PG position is a really interesting one, at this point. There's no doubt that Steph is amazing. However, he has struggled in international play. At the World Cup, he couldn't seem to keep himself on the court due to foul trouble. Meanwhile, all of the other point guard options with international experience (Rose, Kyrie, Westbrook, etc.) have dealt with/are dealing with injuries that may or may not either keep them out of Rio or at least give them pause. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out. I could definitely see a scenario where Lillard or perhaps another PG (Wall has come on strong in the past few years) ends up getting into the mix. The good news is, the USA has a truly ridiculous amount of depth at PG. And that doesn't even count the time that Harden could easily spend running the offense.

As for the bigs, do we see Aldridge or Griffin get a shot? They've both been in camps but have pulled out with injuries.

Also, Gay, DeRozan, and Hayward have all been in camps/made the team, as well.

[SilkyJ]

Hmm, the PG position is a really interesting one, at this point. There's no doubt that Steph is amazing. However, he has struggled in international play. At the World Cup, he couldn't seem to keep himself on the court due to foul trouble. Meanwhile, all of the other point guard options with international experience (Rose, Kyrie, Westbrook, etc.) have dealt with/are dealing with injuries that may or may not either keep them out of Rio or at least give them pause. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out. I could definitely see a scenario where Lillard or perhaps another PG (Wall has come on strong in the past few years) ends up getting into the mix. The good news is, the USA has a truly ridiculous amount of depth at PG. And that doesn't even count the time that Harden could easily spend running the offense.

As for the bigs, do we see Aldridge or Griffin get a shot? They've both been in camps but have pulled out with injuries.

Also, Gay, DeRozan, and Hayward have all been in camps/made the team, as well.

Rio is 12 months away, but it is the offseason...

Not sure why injuries right now would affect the guards you mentioned, those injuries should all be fine by then...assuming other ones don't crop up. But I do agree the guard situation is interesting. CP3 is on the 2014-2016 roster as well, so who sits and who plays if you have CP3, Steph, Kyrie, Westbrook...not to mention D-Rose, Wall, Lillard. Some of these guys will opt out b/c of injuries, contract situations, etc., but it still should be an interesting decision for the staff.

Griffin should still be in the mix if he wants to be, as I recall he showed up to camp and was injured 2 years ago and then last year had a legit back fracture. My bet is that he starts at the 4 if he opts to play. Aldridge on the other hand may have worn out his welcome as he's opted out several times. I imagine he won't be at training camp next summer.

Just FYI, Dwight Howard and Lebron are both listed on the 2014-2016 roster so they could be in the mix next summer. My guess is both will opt out, but who knows. Here's the 2014-2016 roster.

[superdave]

Where are all the homers calling for Mason to make the team? This board is slipping!

I kid, I kid.

I do think CP3 is involved if he would like to be. Coach K and Colangelo have a history of keeping a senior player on to play limited minutes (Kidd in 08, Kobe in 12). LeBron will want to play too unless there's something external going on (injury, contract).

I would go with -

PG: Curry, Irving, Paul
Wings: James, Durant, Harden, Thompson, Korver, Kawhi
Bigs: Davis, Cousins, Love

Next few out: Faried, Westbrook (if Paul plays), George (we'll see how good he remains), Drummond.

This will migrate with injuries and contract years.

[CDu]

Yeah, PG is the one spot on the floor where I have no concerns. Any of Wall, Lillard, Paul, Westbrook, Irving (assuming he doesn't suffer any new injuries... we're getting to the point where one has to be concerned that he is brittle with the myriad of different injuries he's sustained in his short college/pro career), Rose (though even more concerns about his health and how effective he can be consistently), and Curry would be just fine. We just need 3 of them to play (perhaps even just 2).

I'm not yet sold that Paul George will be back. But hopefully he will. If so, pencil him in. I get the feeling that Durant, James, and Paul are going to ride off into the sunset given their age/miles (James and Paul) and injuries (Durant).

I'd guess:
PG: Curry, Irving, Westbrook (listed in alphabetical order)
SG/SF: George, Harden, Thompson
PF/C: Davis, Griffin, Love, Cousins

That leaves a couple of spots. Perhaps another big and another wing. Maybe a youngster like Okafor? A shooter like Korver? A versatile lockdown wing defender like Butler or Leonard? A scorer like Beal?

[COYS]

Rio is 12 months away, but it is the offseason...

Not sure why injuries right now would affect the guards you mentioned, those injuries should all be fine by then...assuming other ones don't crop up. But I do agree the guard situation is interesting. CP3 is on the 2014-2016 roster as well, so who sits and who plays if you have CP3, Steph, Kyrie, Westbrook...not to mention D-Rose, Wall, Lillard. Some of these guys will opt out b/c of injuries, contract situations, etc., but it still should be an interesting decision for the staff.

Here's the 2014-2016 roster.

My reference to injuries for Kyrie and Rose still being a factor are based on their now pretty extensive injury history. Westbrook has also had his share. I don't think it unreasonable to believe that it is more likely than not that one or some combination of those three guys will not be going to Rio if only to keep their knees healthy.

I somehow forgot about Love when mentioning extra bigs. I think he's definitely on the team if he wants to be. Floor spacing big man who can rebound = perfect fit. He provided some big minutes in London, too.

If Lebron decides to come to Rio, then I think it actually knocks an extra big guy off the list. He'll play the bulk of his minutes at PF. I agree with the others, though, in thinking he doesn't make the trip. He's won two Golds, already, and will likely be playing in his sixth NBA Finals in a row. He'll be 31 with A LOT of basketball on his legs. It wouldn't bother me at all if he deems it time to pass the Olympic Basketball Torch to the next generation of stars.

Durant is more of a wild card to me. He's got a World Championship and a Gold, but he's still younger than Lebron and has never been "The Man" on an Olympic team. He was out this season, but has otherwise been really healthy. Assuming he comes back and reaches the same level as before, he would be the centerpiece of the Rio team, even with Davis on the squad. With Lebron entering his 30's and a possible decline being likely, Durant might see the Olympics as a chance to establish himself as the best in the league (though obviously Davis might have something to say about that).

[cato]

This talk of 2016 is getting me excited. Any more knowledgable posters out there have care to muse about how the competition is going to stack up?

[CDu]

My reference to injuries for Kyrie and Rose still being a factor are based on their now pretty extensive injury history. Westbrook has also had his share. I don't think it unreasonable to believe that it is more likely than not that one or some combination of those three guys will not be going to Rio if only to keep their knees healthy.

I would consider it highly likely that three of the following five PGs won't play in Rio: Irving, Curry, Westbrook, Paul, Rose. However, even in the somewhat unlikely event that four of those guys don't play (I'd be shocked if all five skip out), we'll still have guys like Lillard, Wall, Conley, and Lowry to fill in the gaps. I have zero concerns about the position. We'll have the best PGs in the Olympics one way or another.

Durant is more of a wild card to me. He's got a World Championship and a Gold, but he's still younger than Lebron and has never been "The Man" on an Olympic team. He was out this season, but has otherwise been really healthy. Assuming he comes back and reaches the same level as before, he would be the centerpiece of the Rio team, even with Davis on the squad. With Lebron entering his 30's and a possible decline being likely, Durant might see the Olympics as a chance to establish himself as the best in the league (though obviously Davis might have something to say about that).

If we have both Durant and Davis on the team, I think we're borderline unbeatable. I mean, even without Durant, I think we're unbeatable (the Spanish Armada is in decline now, and none of the other countries have the depth to challenge). But with Durant and Davis, we should destroy everyone.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I would consider it highly likely that three of the following five PGs won't play in Rio: Irving, Curry, Westbrook, Paul, Rose. However, even in the somewhat unlikely event that four of those guys don't play (I'd be shocked if all five skip out), we'll still have guys like Lillard, Wall, Conley, and Lowry to fill in the gaps. I have zero concerns about the position. We'll have the best PGs in the Olympics one way or another.



If we have both Durant and Davis on the team, I think we're borderline unbeatable. I mean, even without Durant, I think we're unbeatable (the Spanish Armada is in decline now, and none of the other countries have the depth to challenge). But with Durant and Davis, we should destroy everyone.

It's likely that the US will have the best player at each position one way or another. And also likely that they will have 12 of the top 15 players in the Olympics in 2016 (including the top 5 players).

Now that US basketball is back of track, it's become a much more boring event. And that is very much a product of the success that Coach K and Colangelo have brought to the program (structure = success = destroy competition = boring). Can Team USA lose? Of course! Will they lose with this current system and great players that Team USA has? Doubtful.

[sagegrouse]

It's likely that the US will have the best player at each position one way or another. And also likely that they will have 12 of the top 15 players in the Olympics in 2016 (including the top 5 players).

Now that US basketball is back of track, it's become a much more boring event. And that is very much a product of the success that Coach K and Colangelo have brought to the program (structure = success = destroy competition = boring). Can Team USA lose? Of course! Will they lose with this current system and great players that Team USA has? Doubtful.

Sometimes "boring" is good!

[CDu]

This talk of 2016 is getting me excited. Any more knowledgable posters out there have care to muse about how the competition is going to stack up?

I don't think the competition looks too tough. The logical #2 has been Spain in recent memory. But the key Spanish players are getting really long in the tooth, and aside from Marc Gasol and Ibaka they don't really have huge talent coming up the ranks. They'll be good still (perhaps still #2), but their best chances to beat the US were in 2010 and 2014.

France could put together an interesting team if they so desired (Parker, Noah, Batum, Gobert, Fournier, Diaw, de Colo). But it remains to be seen if guys like Parker and Noah will participate (they are getting older and have had a lot of wear and tear). If they don't that group isn't good enough to threaten the US.

Teams like Brazil (Nene, Splitter, Varejao) and Turkey (Asik, Aldemir, Ilyasova, Kanter) have solid size, but are too weak in the backcourt to really compete with the US.

Serbia might be the new #2 in the world. Croatia and Lithuania will be in the mix as well.

Basically, the big problem the other countries have is that they don't have the depth of talent to compete. Plenty of countries have 3-4 legitimate NBA starters, but the dropoff from there is pretty stark. And almost none of those countries have more than one or two All-Star level talent on the squad. The advantages some of the countries have is that they play much more often together over the years (turnover elsewhere is much less than in the US). But as the US has changed their system and more and more of these guys have had international experience, the difference in continuity is decreasing such that the US talent edge is just too much.

[CDu]

It's likely that the US will have the best player at each position one way or another. And also likely that they will have 12 of the top 15 players in the Olympics in 2016 (including the top 5 players).

Now that US basketball is back of track, it's become a much more boring event. And that is very much a product of the success that Coach K and Colangelo have brought to the program (structure = success = destroy competition = boring). Can Team USA lose? Of course! Will they lose with this current system and great players that Team USA has? Doubtful.

Right. We're going to be overwhelmingly the most talented team out there at every spot on the floor. There is not a position in which we don't have the best (and usually the second and third best) players available in the tournament (even if several of our top guys forego the event).

And now that we've revamped the system such that almost all of these guys have played international ball (so they are familiar with the rules) and have played some together (so they are familiar with the system), it's not like we'll get "out-teamed" enough to lose. The US will be favored by 20+ in almost every game.

[COYS]

Right. We're going to be overwhelmingly the most talented team out there at every spot on the floor. There is not a position in which we don't have the best (and usually the second and third best) players available in the tournament (even if several of our top guys forego the event).

And now that we've revamped the system such that almost all of these guys have played international ball (so they are familiar with the rules) and have played some together (so they are familiar with the system), it's not like we'll get "out-teamed" enough to lose. The US will be favored by 20+ in almost every game.

Didn't FiveThirtyEight or Basketball Reference do a simple point differential analysis and conclude that the 2014 World Cup team was second only to the original Dream Team in terms of dominance? And obviously that team was missing Durant, Westbrook, Griffin, CP3, etc. That really doesn't bode well for the rest of the world. I would be willing to bet that if one of the USA team scrimmages were taken as seriously as a real game, had real refs, and were advertised and then broadcast on ESPN that it would potentially be more highly rated than any one Olympic game in Rio. I'm not one for getting to cocky when it comes to the Olympics. All it takes is one bad game. But I'd be lying if I didn't say that watching the team go all out in scrimmage sounds like the most exciting game the men's team can play.

[SilkyJ]

I do think CP3 is involved if he would like to be. Coach K and Colangelo have a history of keeping a senior player on to play limited minutes (Kidd in 08, Kobe in 12). LeBron will want to play too unless there's something external going on (injury, contract).

I would go with -

PG: Curry, Irving, Paul
Wings: James, Durant, Harden, Thompson, Korver, Kawhi
Bigs: Davis, Cousins, Love

I'd guess:
PG: Curry, Irving, Westbrook (listed in alphabetical order)
SG/SF: George, Harden, Thompson
PF/C: Davis, Griffin, Love, Cousins

That leaves a couple of spots. Perhaps another big and another wing. Maybe a youngster like Okafor? A shooter like Korver? A versatile lockdown wing defender like Butler or Leonard? A scorer like Beal?

There's really no spot for Korver on this team...not that you guys are strongly advocating for him. Generally, I can't think of an example under K where someone tried out and was cut from the FIBA team and then made the following Olympic team during that "cycle." If the talent flows in for the Olympics like usual, I'd expect guys on the margin like Korver to get squeezed. We also saw K sort of "reserve" a spot on the roster for a spot-up specialist in first few int'l tournaments that he coached (Mike Miller & Michael Redd iirc), so sometimes there's a mentality that he'll continue to do that, but with this team he doesn't need to. If Curry and Thompson are on the team you already have 2 of the best 5 shooters in the world...then mix in Kyrie and potentially Durant. The team doesn't need shooting, it already has plenty of it.

I think that last wing spot goes to a versatile defender type ala Iguodala in 2012...Lenoard or Butler would be great, though Butler hasnt been involved with the national team to date.

My reference to injuries for Kyrie and Rose still being a factor are based on their now pretty extensive injury history. Westbrook has also had his share. I don't think it unreasonable to believe that it is more likely than not that one or some combination of those three guys will not be going to Rio if only to keep their knees healthy.

Yep...though I'd say that's a concern with just about everyone. There's always a set of guys that sit out to rest, and its tough to predict what guys will want to do. I mean D-rose debuted from his last injury with team USA last summer so who knows.

Durant is more of a wild card to me. He's got a World Championship and a Gold, but he's still younger than Lebron and has never been "The Man" on an Olympic team. He was out this season, but has otherwise been really healthy. Assuming he comes back and reaches the same level as before, he would be the centerpiece of the Rio team, even with Davis on the squad. With Lebron entering his 30's and a possible decline being likely, Durant might see the Olympics as a chance to establish himself as the best in the league (though obviously Davis might have something to say about that).

Durant was the leading scorer by far for the 2012 team

Durant: 19.5ppg
Melo: 16.3ppg
Lebron: 13.3ppg

The paul george injury last year clearly spooked him as he pulled out immediately after. Given his injuries, his prior int'l accomplishments, his ability to be spooked, my guess is he's probably not showing up. The real wild card is Lebron. If he decides to play, then I could see it snowballing with CP3 & KD hopping on board...

[awhom111]

I don't think the competition looks too tough. The logical #2 has been Spain in recent memory. But the key Spanish players are getting really long in the tooth, and aside from Marc Gasol and Ibaka they don't really have huge talent coming up the ranks. They'll be good still (perhaps still #2), but their best chances to beat the US were in 2010 and 2014.

France could put together an interesting team if they so desired (Parker, Noah, Batum, Gobert, Fournier, Diaw, de Colo). But it remains to be seen if guys like Parker and Noah will participate (they are getting older and have had a lot of wear and tear). If they don't that group isn't good enough to threaten the US.

Teams like Brazil (Nene, Splitter, Varejao) and Turkey (Asik, Aldemir, Ilyasova, Kanter) have solid size, but are too weak in the backcourt to really compete with the US.

Serbia might be the new #2 in the world. Croatia and Lithuania will be in the mix as well.

Basically, the big problem the other countries have is that they don't have the depth of talent to compete. Plenty of countries have 3-4 legitimate NBA starters, but the dropoff from there is pretty stark. And almost none of those countries have more than one or two All-Star level talent on the squad. The advantages some of the countries have is that they play much more often together over the years (turnover elsewhere is much less than in the US). But as the US has changed their system and more and more of these guys have had international experience, the difference in continuity is decreasing such that the US talent edge is just too much.

It is very hard to know right now how things will look next summer, but I will of course be tracking the various qualifying tournaments on the other thread. Even Brazil is not a guarantee to be allowed to enter a team at this point. Eurobasket should be extremely competitive this summer with a few teams that were down last cycle figuring things out in the last year or two. The only team I think I can pencil in right now is Australia, who has to beat New Zealand in a two game aggregate series to qualify. Australia as of now is supposed to be fielding a virtually full strength team this summer, including the possible return of Andrew Bogut. New Zealand will be hoping that Steven Adams will show up, but I could see them tanking this summer and concentrating their efforts on the extra qualifying tournament next summer.

There's really no spot for Korver on this team...not that you guys are strongly advocating for him. Generally, I can't think of an example under K where someone tried out and was cut from the FIBA team and then made the following Olympic team during that "cycle." If the talent flows in for the Olympics like usual, I'd expect guys on the margin like Korver to get squeezed. We also saw K sort of "reserve" a spot on the roster for a spot-up specialist in first few int'l tournaments that he coached (Mike Miller & Michael Redd iirc), so sometimes there's a mentality that he'll continue to do that, but with this team he doesn't need to. If Curry and Thompson are on the team you already have 2 of the best 5 shooters in the world...then mix in Kyrie and potentially Durant. The team doesn't need shooting, it already has plenty of it.

I think that last wing spot goes to a versatile defender type ala Iguodala in 2012...Lenoard or Butler would be great, though Butler hasnt been involved with the national team to date.



Yep...though I'd say that's a concern with just about everyone. There's always a set of guys that sit out to rest, and its tough to predict what guys will want to do. I mean D-rose debuted from his last injury with team USA last summer so who knows.



Durant was the leading scorer by far for the 2012 team

Durant: 19.5ppg
Melo: 16.3ppg
Lebron: 13.3ppg

The paul george injury last year clearly spooked him as he pulled out immediately after. Given his injuries, his prior int'l accomplishments, his ability to be spooked, my guess is he's probably not showing up. The real wild card is Lebron. If he decides to play, then I could see it snowballing with CP3 & KD hopping on board...

The forgotten name here is Carmelo. Whatever criticisms that people have of his NBA play, they seem to disappear in this setting. Of course health will be an issue for him too, but I think that if he is in shape and capable, we will not exclude him solely due to age.

Didn't FiveThirtyEight or Basketball Reference do a simple point differential analysis and conclude that the 2014 World Cup team was second only to the original Dream Team in terms of dominance? And obviously that team was missing Durant, Westbrook, Griffin, CP3, etc. That really doesn't bode well for the rest of the world. I would be willing to bet that if one of the USA team scrimmages were taken as seriously as a real game, had real refs, and were advertised and then broadcast on ESPN that it would potentially be more highly rated than any one Olympic game in Rio. I'm not one for getting to cocky when it comes to the Olympics. All it takes is one bad game. But I'd be lying if I didn't say that watching the team go all out in scrimmage sounds like the most exciting game the men's team can play.

A scrimmage like the game Paul George got hurt in last year? There will actually be a minicamp this summer with a scrimmage at the end, which I assume will be televised. No big names are likely to be involved, but it would not be surprising to see a player or two emerge to fight for a spot next summer.

[brevity]

Teams like Brazil (Nene, Splitter, Varejao) and Turkey (Asik, Aldemir, Ilyasova, Kanter) have solid size, but are too weak in the backcourt to really compete with the US.

What about Bruno Caboclo? By 2016 he'll just be two years away.

[Billy Dat]

If there were ever a time when past events don't predict future events, specifically in terms of who will be on the final roster, I feel like it is 2016 Rio.

A lot has changed since Colangelo took over 10 years ago...(A) Team USA's dominance has been re-asserted (B) Guys seem to be breaking down more due to injury in part from grueling training and the increased speed and strength of the game (C) Paul George's leg freaked everyone out (D) The new collective bargaining agreement makes nearly every summer a huge one for contracts.

It has certainly been established that these guys value the Olympics more than the World Cup. The last 2 World Cup rosters featured 12 entirely new faces for Team USA. The last 2 Olympic teams were basically 5 players from the prior Olympic team, 5 from the World Championship team and 1-2 entirely new faces. My gut tells me that we will see more new faces this time around, and that guys who already have Olympic gold medals will sit it out to rest, deal with contracts, avoid overuse, etc.

Steph Curry missed the 2012 cycle because of injury. He also played second fiddle to Kyrie, at K's behest, this past summer. Who knows how that sat with him? I can't imagine that he liked it much. But, I do think Kyrie's injury keeps him out. As others have said, he is now officially injury prone and this current one is really serious. Back to Steph, this time next year he may be coming off back to back titles and lots of games. Will the Olympic gold, and the prospect of it being his team to lead, be enough of a lure...I say yes, but it's no gimme.

I also think Anthony Davis comes back for a final Team USA appearance. He'll likely have established himself as the most dominant player in the NBA by next summer and, along with Curry, will be the face of the team.

As for the other 2012 Olympians, I don't think many will be back, here's the list:
Anthony, Bryant, Chandler, Davis, Durant, Harden, Iguodala, James, Love, Paul, Westbrook, Williams

Of these guys, considering he won't have played any playoff games for years, maybe Carmelo plays the role of the wise vet, but he also seems like the type who wouldn't want to go if his friends weren't there. Other than that, I too think Harden and Westbrook are the best bets and both are signed through 2017 so they shouldn't have that looming next year.

Here's the 2014 World Cup squad:
Cousins, Curry, Davis, DeRozan, Drummond, Faried, Gay, Harden, Irving, Plumlee, Rose, Thompson

Of this group, aside from Curry/Davis/Harden, I go with Cousins (likely not to be in the playoffs again) and Thompson (wants that Olympic Gold). Maybe Faried.

Then there are the guys who participated last summer but got cut or hurt:
George, Hayward, Korver, Wall, Beal, Lillard, Millsap, Parsons

You never know if these guys are going to be interested - I bet Wall never comes back, he's talked like he felt slighted.

Don't forget about the 2014 Select Team who scrimmaged the main pool guys:
Harry Barnes, Trey Burke, Draymond, Hardaway Jr., Tobias Harris, McBuckets, Oladipo, MP2, Marcus Smart, Dion Waiters, Cody Zeller

Then there are the guys who have said no in the past, and I don't expect them to change their minds:
Kawhi, LaMarcus

Then there are the rookies, many with Team USA experience, I assume a bunch of these guys will be involved this summer:
Russell, Okafor, Winslow, Myles Turner, Cauley-Stein, Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Cam Payne, Stanley Johnson, etc.

Whew...that's a lot of different buckets.

Prediction:
Backcourt:
Curry, Thompson, Westbrook, Harden, Lillard, Winslow

Frontcourt:
Davis, Cousins, Draymond Green, Anthony, Hayward, Okafor

Doesn't K have to go out in a blaze of glory by, again, taking 2 of his Duke guys?

As for competition, it may not be this year, but I keep beating the drum for the Canadian talent pool:

Tristan Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Andrew Nicholson, Nik Stauskas, Kelly Olynk, Robert Sacre, Corey Joseph, Anthony Bennett, etc. Unlike the other countries, these guys didn't grow up playing together so they lack that cohesion, but the talent is there and everytime I watch one of these younger Intl competitions, the Canadians are the ones who look the most formidable.