True, although presumably the pool for the Olympic roster will have more guys participate. The Olympics always gets a better draw of commitments than the World Championships. I don't see much chance Plumlee makes the Olympic team. Aldridge, Anthony, Cousins, Drummond, Durant, Faried, Gay, George, Green, Howard, James, Jordan, Leonard, and Love are all still available on the roster and would be the presumptive options at PF and C ahead of Plumlee.
I agree about the depth of the US talent ... if this tournament was a series of best-of-seven or even best-of-five game series, then I would be 100 percent confident of winning gold.
But while we could lose a game in the opening round-robin and still advance, the final three games of the tournament are all sudden death. That's always dicey ... and in the past, the US has usually had at least one close call per tourney.
So I want to see the best US team possible -- just in case (even though the four-best US team would probably be favored).
We do have a ton of talent - only one of those three guys was a lock to make the team. Due to our superior depth and talent I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the conversation lead to all three of them skipping the Olympics.
The pool is already set, and Plumlee is not in it, which was my point. So I'm not sure what you mean by the pool "will have" more participation.
And yes, since the pool is already set, and includes a host of post players way ahead of plumlee, and typically these guys will want to play in the Olympics (vs the world championships where the best of the best often opt-out), Plumlee has zero chance of making the team. (Maybe you were agreeing with me? You said "True, although..." which made me think you're refuting something I said...)
The crazy part is that you left out Lebron James...
Assuming all 3 of Durant, Kawhi and Lebron choose to play, my guess is that we'd start all 3 alongside Steph (or Westbrook or Kyrie if Steph is out), plus whomever emerges as our center. My front-runner is DeAndre Jordan, who is perfect for the role as a mega-rebounder and rim protector who doesn't need the ball.
We usually go with 3 Centers, 6 wings, and 3 PGs, so my guess is we go like this:
PGs: Steph, Kyrie, Westbrook
Wings: Lebron, Durant, Kawhi, Klay, George, Melo
Posts: DeAndre, Cousins, Draymond
That leaves us a little thin in the post, but my guess it that a couple of those guys will drop out over the next month or so and the next guys up would be Aldridge/Drummond/Love for post depth, and maybe Wall/Lillard for PG depth if Steph is out. I'd be comfortable dropping a wing like Melo and adding another post for depth given Draymond is a small-ball center and would struggle to match up with some large 7 footers...
The pool is not "set", just like it wasn't set in 2014. Players can be added as needed in the event of injury/withdrawal. Plumlee wasn't part of the pool in 2014 either. He was added to the pool at the last minute (called up from the Select team) due to injuries/withdrawals simply by being already on site with the Select team. Similarly, Paul Millsap was added to the pool very late as well. The "although" in my reply referred to your last sentence, which seemed acknowledge the possibility (which does exist) that something similar could happen again. My point was an addition to yours stating that that possibility is WAY more remote this time than it was in 2014. Back then, due to the withdrawals of Griffin and Love (among others), we had a shortage of bigs available. That almost certainly won't be the case this summer.
So I wasn't disagreeing with what you said (hence, the "true"). I was just adding on to clarify how unlikely it would be for him to get called up from the Select team this year.
I'm not sure what about my post(s) were all that confusing. Nor why you seem to be potentially offended by my post. I wasn't disagreeing with you at all. In fact, I was adding support to what you were saying.
Here is how I read your first post (or at least the first one I responded to), by sentence:
1. Ha! (this reads as it is unlikely that Mason will make the team)
2. He isn't even on the 30-man roster. (this reads as evidence supporting sentence 1)
3. Though 2 years ago he wasn't on the roster at this point either. (this reads as acknowledgement that the evidence in sentence 2 may not be definitive proof that Mason won't make the team)
4. He was called up from the select team after the Griffin injury, IIRC. (this reads as a continuation of sentence 3)
My post was agreeing with everything you had said in the post I quoted, and expounding on why sentences 3 and 4 listed above won't have much relevance this time around. In 2014, we had a shortage of bigs, so injuries/withdrawals left us with a potential need (which Plumlee snuck in to fill). In 2016, we won't have a shortage of bigs, so there won't be a need for Plumlee. The bolded sentences were the piece were all that I was adding to your original post.
It's not THAT crazy. I left him out because he doesn't really fit the lineup of death as well as Kawhi and KD do, because he's so ball dominant, and is not a very good 3 point shooter. The whole point of the lineup of death is having five 3 point shooters who can all run the floor. The only guy he'd replace effectively in that lineup is Draymond as the point center, but we all know LeBron hates playing down low.
Got it. Consider the light bulb on.
If you believe that, you're nuts. Steph and Cp3 were both locks, and probably locks to start. Cp3 has been on the first or 2nd team All-NBA for 7 straight years. Who is going to make the team over him?
I also think Blake would have been in the running to start at Center with Anthony Davis out.
It is no surprise that Mike Gbinije was named to Nigeria's preliminary squad after he helped them qualify:
http://www.fiba.com/ezeli-in-nigeria...r-rio-olympics
Nigeria is an interesting story because we are almost at the point with three high level teams of Americans competing internationally. They have called up some more big names born both here and there with Festus Ezeli and Ekpe Udoh being the latest. They and Gbinije may be question marks because they will almost certainly want to resolve club situations before playing. Thanasis Antetokounmpo was included, but he has already indicated a preference for Greece. Of course the big prize for their often thin backcourt would be Victor Oladipo, but he is still politely non-commital.
Update: The Clippers announced that Blake has been ruled out for the USA training camps and exhibition tour as he recovers from his quad injury, but they did not rule him out for the final 12-man roster. Of course, this announcement was made by the Clippers, not Team USA, and missing training camp likely means Coach K and Colangelo will have to keep him off the roster. I'll give him a punchers chance (5%) that he makes the squad as a last minute addition, but obviously its highly unlikely and would take an unusual turn of events to make it happen, in my opinion.
The article also mentions that CP3 and John Wall are definitely out, along with Anthony Davis who we already knew about. (The article actually says that CP3 had already withdrawn prior to breaking his hand, but I hadn't heard that.)
I continue to believe this is our likely roster, assuming no more attrition:
PGs: Steph, Kyrie, Westbrook
Wings: Lebron, Durant, Kawhi, Klay, George, Melo
Posts: DeAndre, Cousins, Draymond
That said, I am 100% certain there will be more attrition, whether by choice or injury. Steph could easily hold out given his injuries and back to back seasons with ~100 games, but he's never been on an Olympic team so I hope he won't. Kawhi has been flaky previously, so it wouldn't shock me if he stayed out...I'm sure there are others mulling their options.
Last edited by SilkyJ; 05-08-2016 at 05:37 PM.
I wonder what impact Zika concerns might have on the player pool...