Freshman Starters at Duke

[sagegrouse]

There was a discussion in another thread about players who started as freshmen under Coach K. Twenty-five players have started the majority of the games their freshman season. That's 25 out of my list of 100 recruited freshmen. Here they are --

Pct.	Pos.	Player	Year
100.0%	G	Johnny Dawkins	1983
100.0%	F	Mark Alarie	1983
100.0%	G	Tommy Amaker	1984
100.0%	G	Bobby Hurley	1990
100.0%	G	Jason Williams	2000
100.0%	F	Kyle Singler	2008
97.1%	G	Austin Rivers	2012
97.0%	G	Jon Scheyer	2007
91.7%	G	Greg Paulus	2006
90.9%	G	JJ Redick   	2002
88.2%	C	Carlos Boozer	2000
86.5%	F	Luol Deng   	2004
86.1%	FC	Josh McRoberts	2006
85.7%	GF	David Henderson	1983
85.7%	F	Jay Bilas   	1983
85.7%	F	Elton Brand - 2	1998
82.4%	G	Jeff Capel	1994
79.5%	F	Grant Hill	1991
77.4%	G	Trajan Langdon	1995
72.7%	G	Kyrie Irving - 2	2011
69.7%	F	Shelden Williams	2002
58.1%	C	Taymon Domzalski	1996
55.6%	F	Shane Battier	1998
54.5%	F	Lance Thomas	2007
52.5%	CF	Danny Ferry	1986

A few surprises there -- Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. I did the stats on Elton and Kyrie based on number of games available (Elton would have made the list anyway).

The list includes 11 guards, 9 forwards, 2 centers and three hybrids (McBob, Ferry, and David Henderson).

Anyway, there were freshman starters in 17 years (out of 32). 1983 is the champ, of course, when JD, Alarie, Bilas and Henderson started almost all of the games. Other years with two freshman starters include Shane and Elton in 1998, JWill and Boozer in 2000, JJ and Shelden in 2003, McBob and Paulus in 2006, and Lance and Jon in 2007.

Does this analysis lead to a cure for cancer or bring about peace? No-o-o-o-o. Not exactly.

sagegrouse

[CameronBornAndBred]

Great job! I'd give you points but I need to spread some love around first. That list really surprises me; I don't know why but I would have thought there would be far fewer names on it. But then with 30 years to populate it, the numbers start to add up. Domzalski is the biggest surprise, and it's fun looking at all those names from '83.

[Bob Green]

Domzalski is the biggest surprise...

For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.

[Li_Duke]

For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.

On the bright side, Domzalski did meet his academic potential. I believe he graduated from Duke Med several years back.

[MChambers]

For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.

Sagegrouse, this is great. Always nice to have the facts.

[dukelifer]

Sagegrouse, this is great. Always nice to have the facts.

Interesting that two ACC players of the year- Chris Carrawell and Nolan Smith did not crack the list.

[Zeb]

Interesting that two ACC players of the year- Chris Carrawell and Nolan Smith did not crack the list.

I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.

[MChambers]

I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.

He did have two future NBA players ahead of him. More importantly, by season's end he certainly was playing more than Alaa.

[Kedsy]

I'd say it's more interesting that Laettner--NPOY, Dream Team member, and arguably Duke's greatest player ever--didn't make the list.

In keeping with my previous post, Christian Laettner, while a pretty highly rated recruit, was not considered top 15 coming out of high school. Also, he still managed to start 44.4% of his freshman games.

[MChambers]

In keeping with my previous post, Christian Laettner, while a pretty highly rated recruit, was not considered top 15 coming out of high school. Also, he still managed to start 44.4% of his freshman games.

I remember some of my co-workers going to the Capital Classic game in DC in 1988, back when the game had most of the top recruits. They told me that Duke had a very strong player in Crawford Palmer. They weren't so sure about the other big guy.

[mr. synellinden]

I remember some of my co-workers going to the Capital Classic game in DC in 1988, back when the game had most of the top recruits. They told me that Duke had a very strong player in Crawford Palmer. They weren't so sure about the other big guy.

We had signed both Palmer and Laettner early that year, and no question Palmer was the recruit people were excited about. Alonzo Mourning was the clear #1 recruit in the country and he and Palmer were both from the D.C. area. There were stories about a game in which Palmer dominated Mourning - that fueled a lot of the buzz.

[JasonEvans]

As Bobby Jones, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, James Harden, Jason Terry, and scores of other players will tell you, it ain't about who starts, it is about who finishes.

But, seeing as it is excessively difficult to track who finished games and if those games were close enough so that finishing mattered, I think it would be more interesting to look at freshmen who played more than 20 minutes per game under K. I bet that list would look interesting and different.

-Jason "will be interesting to see if Suliamon, ,Murphy or Amile can add another name to the list" Evans

[timmy c]

As Bobby Jones, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, James Harden, Jason Terry, and scores of other players will tell you, it ain't about who starts, it is about who finishes.

But, seeing as it is excessively difficult to track who finished games and if those games were close enough so that finishing mattered, I think it would be more interesting to look at freshmen who played more than 20 minutes per game under K. I bet that list would look interesting and different.

-Jason "will be interesting to see if Suliamon, ,Murphy or Amile can add another name to the list" Evans

Jason,

I don't know that you could consider Murphy on this list considering he took a non-injury related redshirt. What do others think?

[Bob Green]

Jason,

I don't know that you could consider Murphy on this list considering he took a non-injury related redshirt. What do others think?

I believe we can consider Murphy for the list. He will be a freshman during the 2012-13 season. Last year, he should have been a senior in high school, but he elected to come to Duke and red shirt for developmental reasons. However I slice it, dice it or analyze it, I end up concluding Murphy is a freshman. He has played in zero college games.

[tommy]

As Bobby Jones, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, James Harden, Jason Terry, and scores of other players will tell you, it ain't about who starts, it is about who finishes.

But, seeing as it is excessively difficult to track who finished games and if those games were close enough so that finishing mattered, I think it would be more interesting to look at freshmen who played more than 20 minutes per game under K. I bet that list would look interesting and different.

-Jason "will be interesting to see if Suliamon, ,Murphy or Amile can add another name to the list" Evans

Good thought on the minutes per game. By my count, there have been 26 frosh in the K era who have averaged over 20 mpg. Here they are:

Player	Year	Minutes Per Game
Tommy Amaker	1983-84	36.3
Johnny Dawkins	1982-83	35.8
Jason Williams	1999-2000	34.0
Jon Scheyer	2006-07	33.7
Bobby Hurley	1989-90	33.4
Austin Rivers	2011-12	33.3
Greg Paulus	2005-06	32.3
Luol Deng	2003-04	31.1
JJ Redick	2002-03	30.7
Kyle Singler	2007-08	28.6
Mark Alarie	1982-83	28.0
Chris Duhon	2000-01	27.8
Kyrie Irving	2010-11	27.5
Jeff Capel	1993-94	26.4
Trajan Langdon	1994-95	25.7
David Henderson	1982-83	24.9
Shane Battier	1997-98	24.64
Grant Hill	1990-91	24.63
Josh McRoberts	2005-06	24.5
Mike Dunleavy	1999-2000	24.1
Ricky Price	1994-95	24.0
Carlos Boozer	1999-2000	23.7
Elton Brand	1997-98	23.5
Jay Bilas	1982-83	23.0
Danny Ferry	1985-86	22.8
Taymon Domzalski	1995-96	20.5

So comparing this list to Sage's list of the frosh who started more than half the team's games, it's almost the same. Only Shelden Williams and Lance Thomas started more than half the games but still didn't get to the 20 minutes per game mark. And only Chris Duhon, Mike Dunleavy, and Ricky Price got more than 20 mpg as freshmen but did not start more than half the team's games.

My takeaway from this is that, with precious few exceptions, under K, if a player is good enough as a freshman to play more than 20 mpg, he's good enough to start. And vice-versa.

One other thing I notice (but don't tell the haters): of the guys who have gotten more than 20 mpg as freshmen, only 4 during K's tenure have been back to the basket players: Boozer, Brand, Bilas, and Domzalski.

[lotusland]

For me, the main reason Domzalski's career ended up being disappointing is because it started with such promise. As a freshman, he had major upside. Unfortunately, he never achieved his potential.

sagegrouse - thanks for putting this list together.

Domzalski might have faired better if Brand, Battier and Burgess hadn't arrived his Junior year. I do remember having high expectations for him after his Freshman year but he was pretty clearly out of his league when Brand and Battier arrived. I'm not sure if Burgess was better but he was more athletic and had a bigtime reputation.

I remember Pete Gillen quipped that if he had a player like Domzalski, who was languishing on the end of Duke's bench, they would erect a statue or monument of him.

[jimsumner]

Domzalski might have faired better if Brand, Battier and Burgess hadn't arrived his Junior year. I do remember having high expectations for him after his Freshman year but he was pretty clearly out of his league when Brand and Battier arrived. I'm not sure if Burgess was better but he was more athletic and had a bigtime reputation.

I remember Pete Gillen quipped that if he had a player like Domzalski, who was languishing on the end of Duke's bench, they would erect a statue or monument of him.

Domzalski averaged around 6.5/5.0 as a frosh. Promising but hardly dominant. Junior Greg Newton had much better stats that year, 12.2/8.2.After Tony Moore flunked out early, Duke had limited options inside.

Domzalski's biggest problem was he just couldn't stay out of foul trouble.

Domzalski missed most of his sophomore season with a knee injury. Probably should have red-shirted. But I'm not sure he wanted do.

Brand, Battier and Burgess came in when he was a junior. TD got some PT after Brand's broken foot but had a poor game when #1 Duke was hammered at Chapel Hill. 97-73, IIRC. K went small after that, starting Battier and McLeod until Brand came back.

And he was a back-up in '99.

[Kedsy]

My very strong recollection is that Laettner was more highly regarded than Palmer and it wasn't all that close. Palmer did outplay Mourning in a summer game and that almost certainly distorted expectations and perhaps memories.

But Laettner was a pretty big deal at the time. I suspect he would have ranked around 10th, had the RSCI been around in 1988.

The only source I could find was Street & Smith's, who did not list Christian on any of their four "high school all america" teams (comprising of a total of 20 players). Both Christian and Crawford were listed as "high honorable mention," along with more than 100 others.

[jimsumner]

The only source I could find was Street & Smith's, who did not list Christian on any of their four "high school all america" teams (comprising of a total of 20 players). Both Christian and Crawford were listed as "high honorable mention," along with more than 100 others.

Street and Smith's was pre-season. I believe Weldon Williams was the highest ranked S&S recruit in Duke's class of 1982.I do remember that they had him on their
30-man team. We all thought Duke was getting an instant impact player.


In other words, don't give much weight to S&S.

[Kedsy]

There was a discussion in another thread about players who started as freshmen under Coach K. Twenty-five players have started the majority of the games their freshman season. That's 25 out of my list of 100 recruited freshmen. Here they are --

Pct.	Pos.	Player		Year	recruiting ranking
100.0%	G	Johnny Dawkins	1983	**
100.0%	F	Mark Alarie	1983	**?
100.0%	G	Tommy Amaker	1984	**?
100.0%	G	Bobby Hurley	1990	**
100.0%	G	Jason Williams	2000	#3
100.0%	F	Kyle Singler	2008	#5
97.1%	G	Austin Rivers	2012	#2
97.0%	G	Jon Scheyer	2007	#28
91.7%	G	Greg Paulus	2006	#13
90.9%	G	JJ Redick   	2002	#11
88.2%	C	Carlos Boozer	2000	#8
86.5%	F	Luol Deng   	2004	#2
86.1%	FC	Josh McRoberts	2006	#1
85.7%	GF	David Henderson	1983	??
85.7%	F	Jay Bilas   	1983	??
85.7%	F	Elton Brand - 2	1998	**
82.4%	G	Jeff Capel	1994	**?
79.5%	F	Grant Hill	1991	**
77.4%	G	Trajan Langdon	1995	**
72.7%	G	Kyrie Irving - 2 2011	#2
69.7%	F	Shelden Williams 2002	#8
58.1%	C	Taymon Domzalski 1996	??
55.6%	F	Shane Battier	1998	**
54.5%	F	Lance Thomas	2007	#20
52.5%	CF	Danny Ferry	1986	**
51.9%   GF      Ricky Price     1995	**

A few surprises there -- Taymon Domzalski, Jeff Capel and Lance Thomas -- all of whom started in less-than-stellar seasons. I did the stats on Elton and Kyrie based on number of games available (Elton would have made the list anyway).

The list includes 11 guards, 9 forwards, 2 centers and three hybrids (McBob, Ferry, and David Henderson).

Anyway, there were freshman starters in 17 years (out of 32). 1983 is the champ, of course, when JD, Alarie, Bilas and Henderson started almost all of the games. Other years with two freshman starters include Shane and Elton in 1998, JWill and Boozer in 2000, JJ and Shelden in 2003, McBob and Paulus in 2006, and Lance and Jon in 2007.

Does this analysis lead to a cure for cancer or bring about peace? No-o-o-o-o. Not exactly.

sagegrouse

Good stuff, Sage. Although you appear to have left off Ricky Price, who started more than half our games in 1994-95 (I inserted him for you). I have also added a column in your fine table for the player's recruiting ranking, using the RSCI. RSCI only goes back to 1998, however, so for player's before that I have used "**" if the player was probably a top 15 recruit and "??" if I don't know or don't think so.

You will note that except for the years of 2007 and 1983 (two down years for Duke), and with the possible exception of Domzalski (who was probably top 20 but I don't know if he was top 15), every player in your table was a top 15 recruit, and almost all of those were top 10. The list of top 15 recruits who did not start more than half their freshman games is fairly small, and even most of those freshman started a significant number of games:

Chris Duhon, #7, started 25.6% of his freshman games
Gerald Henderson, #10, 31.3%
Elliot Williams, #15, 35.3%
Ryan Kelly, #14, 0%
Chris Burgess, **, 8.3%

I am not suggesting that Coach K looks at the recruiting rankings and decides only to start guys of a certain rank. But these guys are ranked where they are for a reason. Top 10 recruits tend to be both talented and college ready, so they have a much higher chance of starting. Once you get past #15, the talent is at least a little less and the college readiness is generally a lot less (obviously with exceptions, but surprisingly few exceptions when you look at the data).

So, ultimately, unless Coach K is somewhat desperate (e.g., 2007, 1983), if he's starting a freshman the guy is almost certainly top 15 and most likely top 10. This should be somewhat informative when evaluating the chances of starting for freshmen like Quinn Cook (#31 RSCI), who are outside the top 15.

As a further note, right now Rasheed Sulaimon is borderline top 15. I'm interested in seeing where he ends up in the final RSCI.