Welcome to Duke, Amile Jefferson!

[UrinalCake]

Would it be possible for [Amile] to play on the perimeter on defense but down low on offense? If he could, that would seem to fit well with Ryan Kelly playing on the perimeter on offense but down low on defense.

I don't think that we'll see Ryan playing the "3" on offense. He'd be too easy to defend by a smaller guy, at least until he develops his post game a little farther. Right now the biggest weapon he brings is hitting wide-open threes because he's being guarded by a "4." He also likes to stand in the high post and distribute the ball, which would be less effective with two other bigs on the floor.

[CDu]

But in that situation, wouldn't Alex be the prime candidate to slide over to the 3, opening up more minutes for Amile at the 4?

If Dawkins redshirts we have 40 mpg available this year at the SF spot and probably 10 mpg available at the PF spot. Murphy will be playing the SF spot a lot regardless. But he's probably not going to play 30+ mpg (whereas Kelly will). And Hairston will be in the mix at PF too. As such, there are more minutes available at SF than at PF. As such, (I think) Kedsy was suggesting that Jefferson might find more of his minutes next year at SF than at PF.

Although I suppose your suggestion would provide us with some incredible length. 6'11, 6'10, and 6'9 with a 7 foot wingspan. That's one surrriously long front court right there.

We'll have a very long frontcourt with Murphy as well. If our SF position is manned by two guys who are 6'7"-6'8" (or taller), height is not going to be a concern next year.

The question is then just whether or not Jefferson has the quickness to defend at SF. I think that's in doubt. But if Dawkins redshirts, we may very well find out.

[CDu]

I don't think that we'll see Ryan playing the "3" on offense. He'd be too easy to defend by a smaller guy, at least until he develops his post game a little farther. Right now the biggest weapon he brings is hitting wide-open threes because he's being guarded by a "4." He also likes to stand in the high post and distribute the ball, which would be less effective with two other bigs on the floor.

He'd still likely be guarded by a PF. He'd just spend his time on the perimeter. Which is largely what he does now. And Jefferson would be guarded by a SF, but would spend more time along the baseline.

I'm not sure if it would work either. But playing more along the perimeter doesn't mean you're a 3. It just means you're a perimeter-oriented offensive player (which is very much true for Kelly).

[gumbomoop]

I don't think that we'll see Ryan playing the "3" on offense. He'd be too easy to defend by a smaller guy, at least until he develops his post game a little farther. Right now the biggest weapon he brings is hitting wide-open threes because he's being guarded by a "4." He also likes to stand in the high post and distribute the ball, which would be less effective with two other bigs on the floor.

This is a good point. But maybe the key issue is that we're talking in these last several posts about 3 guys, none of whom fits perfectly into the position to which we might like to assign him.

[1] Ryan -- Of the 3, he's closest to being a one-position guy: he's a 4. But, alas, for purposes of perfect analysis, he's also a solid 3-bomber, more characteristic of a wing/SF. Thus, UrinalCake is right that Ryan isn't likely to "play" the 3, really at all. Except that, he might be on the floor for a few minutes with Amile and, say, Mason or Marshall. Not a lot, just a few odd moments. Odd, because in that scenario, Ryan, the logical 4, might profitably drift out to the corner or anywhere outside the 3-pt line; in which case Amile moves inside.

[2] Alex -- Until Mason's decision to return, and in the absence of Tony Parker [How quickly we forget....], Alex was certainly "slotted" into the 4. Indeed, at one worrying moment, it appeared that our bigs next season might consist of Josh, Marshall, and Alex. Fine human beings, each and every one, but not a lot of experience there. But that's all changed now. With Mason back, Alex is now "slotted" at his new "best" position, the 3/wing/SF. Which he "is," if not quite of the perfectly "classic" variety.

[3] Amile -- On several threads over the past 6 weeks, we've had a debate about what Amile "is." The problem is, he certainly isn't a classic "power" forward/4. And lo and behold, we don't need him to be that in 2012-'13, as much as we need him to be able to defend, and rebound [or at least block out...] from, the 3-spot.

My guess is that we just won't see Amile on the floor for extended minutes with 2 other bigs.

[Bluealum]

My guess is that we just won't see Amile on the floor for extended minutes with 2 other bigs.

It would really be interesting to see if a slimmed down Hairston can split time with Alex at the 3. Josh showed a high motor and decent shooting touch but did not appear to have good instincts for shooting in traffic around the rim. If this can work we have very natural backups at each position as well as good height and a veteran starter or backup at each spot.

Then:

C: Mason (30); Marshall (10)
PF: Ryan (30); Amillle (10)
SF: Alex (25); Josh (15)
SG: Seth (25); Raheed (15)
PF; Quinn (25); Tyler (15)

The above makes for a 10 deep rotation with size, experience, and talent. Obviously it would be unprecedented for the 10th man on a K team to average 15 min, but unprecedented is not impossible, and the makeup of this team might encourage this.

[UrinalCake]

This is a good point. But maybe the key issue is that we're talking in these last several posts about 3 guys, none of whom fits perfectly into the position to which we might like to assign him.

I agree, and will add that Mason doesn't fit perfectly into the 5 spot either, he's better off as a 4. But based on our personnel, the only conceivable scenario in which he would play the 4 is if Marshall is on the floor with him.

The good news is that we have tremendous flexibility and I would expect us to switch a ton on defense. At any point in time I would expect us to have two of (Alex, Amile, Josh, and Ryan) on the floor plus one of (Mason and Marshall). That's a lot of size and length. If Dawkins is available, he'll give us a much different look when he's in.

[Greg_Newton]

I just hope he can hit his FTs, so other teams can't resort to the "Whack-A-mile" strategy.

Kedsy - if this makes any sense, when I've seen him, he's looked like he's had extremely quick hands/feet/movements within contained spaces, but he's never stood out as explosive vertically, laterally or going front a standing start to sprint. I do think that having some actual muscles in his legs will help this discrepancy over time, but he's never looked like anything ilke Poythress or Terrance Jones in terms of being a true combo to me. Much more like a more coordinated and intuitive/less athletic CJ Leslie in that sense, IMO.

I'm not saying it will be impossible for him to get some backup minutes at the 3 against bigger SFs - and I would be thrilled if he shows up with the athleticism and defensive ability to do so - I just don't think it's all likely given how deep our rotation already is and that he'd be a physically-underdeveloped freshman playing out of position (we've got seven locks, plus Josh and MP3, plus a possible Dre).

The interesting flip side to that, however, is that he'll almost certainly be playing the 3 against Murphy in practices if Dre takes the year off (and on that note, I think the fact that he would give us a legitimate 5 v. 5 practice game is a not-insignificant result of this commitment). Plus, he seems like he's got a great work ethic and attitude, so you never know.

[roywhite]

I just hope he can hit his FTs, so other teams can't resort to the "Whack-A-mile" strategy.

Don't recall seeing any FT stats or observations about how he looks at the line. Anyone with some info?
Seems to me that if a kid comes in with a good stroke and good results at the line, it usually carries over pretty well, even for a freshman. On the other hand, if he comes in with shaky form and results at the line, it's likely to continue to be a problem for at least the first year or two...so many other things to learn, probably won't improve much at the line until the rest of the game slows down.

[CDu]

It would really be interesting to see if a slimmed down Hairston can split time with Alex at the 3. Josh showed a high motor and decent shooting touch but did not appear to have good instincts for shooting in traffic around the rim. If this can work we have very natural backups at each position as well as good height and a veteran starter or backup at each spot.

Then:

C: Mason (30); Marshall (10)
PF: Ryan (30); Amillle (10)
SF: Alex (25); Josh (15)
SG: Seth (25); Raheed (15)
PF; Quinn (25); Tyler (15)

The above makes for a 10 deep rotation with size, experience, and talent. Obviously it would be unprecedented for the 10th man on a K team to average 15 min, but unprecedented is not impossible, and the makeup of this team might encourage this.

Hairston has played PF or C throughout his high school and college career. I see no reason to assume he has the ability to play the SF position defensively. Further, I'd be much more inclined to believe that a lighter, more offensively gifted Jefferson (who won't be strong enough to play the PF spot next year) will be more suited to be the backup SF than Hairston (who certainly won't be quick enough and isn't skilled enough for the SF position).

[DUKIE V(A)]

Amile is a great get for Duke. Very versatile, can defend multiple positions. Seems to be an outstanding, well-rounded person. The team is looking strong for next year. Should be More versatile and improved defensively compared to last year. The pieces seem to fit a bit better.

[Bojangles4Eva]

Hairston has played PF or C throughout his high school and college career. I see no reason to assume he has the ability to play the SF position defensively. Further, I'd be much more inclined to believe that a lighter, more offensively gifted Jefferson (who won't be strong enough to play the PF spot next year) will be more suited to be the backup SF than Hairston (who certainly won't be quick enough and isn't skilled enough for the SF position).

I very much agree. Although I can't say I have seen Amile play (sans highlights on youtube), Josh really doesn't have the look of a 3. I think he would suffer in this position both offensively and defensively.

[Kedsy]

If Dawkins redshirts we have 40 mpg available this year at the SF spot and probably 10 mpg available at the PF spot. Murphy will be playing the SF spot a lot regardless. But he's probably not going to play 30+ mpg (whereas Kelly will). And Hairston will be in the mix at PF too. As such, there are more minutes available at SF than at PF. As such, (I think) Kedsy was suggesting that Jefferson might find more of his minutes next year at SF than at PF.

Yes, thank you, this is exactly what I was suggesting. Without Andre in the mix (and obviously that's not going to resolve itself for a few months), we have a very deep backcourt and a pretty deep "big" rotation. But we'll have 10 to 20 minutes available at SF. So if Amile can defend that position, I expect that's where his minutes will come from.

Kedsy - if this makes any sense, when I've seen him, he's looked like he's had extremely quick hands/feet/movements within contained spaces, but he's never stood out as explosive vertically, laterally or going front a standing start to sprint. I do think that having some actual muscles in his legs will help this discrepancy over time, but he's never looked like anything ilke Poythress or Terrance Jones in terms of being a true combo to me. Much more like a more coordinated and intuitive/less athletic CJ Leslie in that sense, IMO.

I'm not saying it will be impossible for him to get some backup minutes at the 3 against bigger SFs - and I would be thrilled if he shows up with the athleticism and defensive ability to do so - I just don't think it's all likely given how deep our rotation already is and that he'd be a physically-underdeveloped freshman playing out of position (we've got seven locks, plus Josh and MP3, plus a possible Dre).

Thanks for your insights. The thing is our rotation is deep at every position except SF (assuming Andre redshirts). Are you basically suggesting Amile won't play very much at all? That might be right, if he's not ready. But if he is ready, it would seem the place for him to find minutes would be at SF. You point out that his lateral quickness is not his strongest quality, though, so I have no idea if he'll be capable of playing there.

The interesting flip side to that, however, is that he'll almost certainly be playing the 3 against Murphy in practices if Dre takes the year off (and on that note, I think the fact that he would give us a legitimate 5 v. 5 practice game is a not-insignificant result of this commitment). Plus, he seems like he's got a great work ethic and attitude, so you never know.

I agree that Amile gives us someone to play opposite Alex in practice and that's huge. But if he's able to do that adequately, wouldn't that imply he could be an option there in the games, too?

[Kedsy]

It would really be interesting to see if a slimmed down Hairston can split time with Alex at the 3. Josh showed a high motor and decent shooting touch but did not appear to have good instincts for shooting in traffic around the rim. If this can work we have very natural backups at each position as well as good height and a veteran starter or backup at each spot.

Then:

C: Mason (30); Marshall (10)
PF: Ryan (30); Amillle (10)
SF: Alex (25); Josh (15)
SG: Seth (25); Raheed (15)
PF; Quinn (25); Tyler (15)

The above makes for a 10 deep rotation with size, experience, and talent. Obviously it would be unprecedented for the 10th man on a K team to average 15 min, but unprecedented is not impossible, and the makeup of this team might encourage this.

I agree with CDu that this is unlikely. Even Josh's freshman year, when he hadn't bulked up yet, he didn't appear to have the ability to defend SF, and his offensive game looked more like a PF's as well.

As far as the 10 deep rotation, it might happen in the early cupcake games, but although anything is possible we've had plenty of teams where the makeup of the team might have seemed to encourage a deep rotation and K has never succumbed to the temptation. I'll be very surprised if this year is any different.

[OZ]

With all these well meaning and well thought through posts analyzing what Amile can or can not do; what he will or will not be able to do; whether he will play a lot of minutes or non at all; whether he is 5-10, 6-7, 6-8, 6-9 or 7'; whether he is heavy enough to play the 3 or 4; or will have to wear shoe weights to sit on the bench... I am becoming thoroughly confused as to what his abilities are. Therefore, in such complex situations as this, I am going to do what I always do; I am going to take the assessment of this guy and celebrate Amile's coming to Duke...

"Our class is really four great youngsters with Amille, Rasheed [Sulaimon] and then Alex [Murphy] and Marshall [Plumlee] redshirting," Krzyzewski said. "With those four guys ready to play, they are going to help us immensely. They are talented and all have great character."


So, now I am going to give this a rest, enjoy Lacrosse; and get ready for some football!

[johnb]

It would really be interesting to see if a slimmed down Hairston can split time with Alex at the 3. Josh showed a high motor and decent shooting touch but did not appear to have good instincts for shooting in traffic around the rim. If this can work we have very natural backups at each position as well as good height and a veteran starter or backup at each spot.

Then:

C: Mason (30); Marshall (10)
PF: Ryan (30); Amillle (10)
SF: Alex (25); Josh (15)
SG: Seth (25); Raheed (15)
PF; Quinn (25); Tyler (15)

The above makes for a 10 deep rotation with size, experience, and talent. Obviously it would be unprecedented for the 10th man on a K team to average 15 min, but unprecedented is not impossible, and the makeup of this team might encourage this.

That seems like a reasonable estimate, though I'd add in about a 6-15 minute/person margin of error. Depending on how people play, I'd expect
Mason (24-36); Marshall (4-15)
Ryan (24-36) Amile (4-20)
Alex (4-20), Josh (4-15)
Seth (20-30) Rasheed (10-20)
Quinn (20-30) Tyler (10-25)

I'm assuming Marshall, Amile, Alex, and Josh are competing to be among the 7 or 8 guys who will get the big minutes in 2013 close games (4 minutes being a euphemism for DNP's in close games), that the others have played themselves into big minutes (though that could change) and that the coaches would be unlikely to have decided minutes beyond this until practice starts. I'm also assuming they will focus on getting the best 5 on the court at all times, and, while there'd be an effort to get 2-3 big guys and 2-3 smallish guys on the court at once, they're more interested in making the other team match up to us than us matching a traditional 1-5 lineup.

Of course, I'd love to know what they actually think 5 months prior to practice and would also love to know how often they're really surprised...

[lotusland]

I don't think that we'll see Ryan playing the "3" on offense. He'd be too easy to defend by a smaller guy, at least until he develops his post game a little farther. Right now the biggest weapon he brings is hitting wide-open threes because he's being guarded by a "4." He also likes to stand in the high post and distribute the ball, which would be less effective with two other bigs on the floor.

If Ryan and Amile are playing together with MP2/MP3 at 5 then Ryan's position on offense is really dependent on the defense. If they put a wing on Ryan he goes inside for the mismatch. If they put a big him then he plays on the perimeter and Amile takes the wing down low. For that reason the defense is better off defending Ryan with a wing because there is only one mismatch but if they put a big on Ryan and wing on Amile we have a mismatch at both positions on offense.

This assumes that Amile can guard the 3 and that he is ready to score in the post as a frosh against either a wing or a PF. We really don't know if Amile will be any more ready to play as a frosh than Silent G was this year. It's not a knock against him if he's not. We have a crowded roster at every position including the 3 if Sheed plays alongside Seth and another PG so it won't surprise me if he doesn't get meaningful minutes after the conference schedule starts. If he is ready to defend the 3 and score in the post I like our lineup with Ryan, Amile and another 5 for a few MPG.

[mailman2927]

while i don't post often, i predict that amile will have a more productive career than tony parker and mcgary.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

while i don't post often, i predict that amile will have a more productive career than tony parker and mcgary.

I agree 100% on your prediction. I still don't see why TP would go to UCLA with Josh Smith being their for 2 more years and Shabazz being 1 and done. The book seems to be out on McGary and I just don't see Michigan's system using him effectively(yes, I know I sound like a NCSU fan).

I'd like to add that I see alot of Tyler Thornton in Amile, as far as personality and demeanor(i.e. Leadership Qualities). So I believe we'll be seeing more of Amile than maybe many expect.

[UrinalCake]

I'd like to add that I see alot of Tyler Thornton in Amile, as far as personality and demeanor(i.e. Leadership Qualities).

This reminds me of the time a reporter asked Steve Francis about his new teammate, Yao Ming. Francis replied "We're very similar people, except that he's 7'6 and Chinese."

I like what you're saying though, and hope that Amile can provide some intangibles that were lacking last season.

[ice-9]

I haven't really been keeping up on the blow-by-blow of Amile's recruitment, but now that we have him I checked out his highlight videos and recruiting analyst opinions (thanks to those who provided them in this thread).

Wow, he's a really interesting player. His highlight video is the first one I've seen where not every point is a slam dunk, three pointer, or crazy shot. They showcased what Amile does best and can do night-in, night-out: get to the basket and make these floaters / teardrop shots in the face of solid defence. The video and the analyst reports reminded me of this great basketball player I know...

...me!

OK OK, obviously I'm not a very good player or anything, but I've got a poor man's version (OK, really really really poor) of Amile's game -- developed out of necessity because I'm short, without a reliable jumpshot unless from the free throw line in, but quick and with a decent touch around the basket in my younger days when I had more lift. So I sort of feel like I "get" Amile and can see how he can be used most effectively in an offence.

In a traditional half court offence, he'll like to start anywhere between the elbow and inside the three point line (closer the better but depending on what spacing is available), where he can dribble and pull-up, drive all the way in for a floater/layup/dunk, or go for the jumpshot once the defender has learned to back off. He won't really be the kind of post player that calls for the ball down low and bangs a la Shaq, though he can probably do it well with the right match-up. He'll be awesome in a motion offence where he can cut free to the basket and then make plays, and he'll be great on the fastbreak.

He will KILL defenders who don't have lateral quickness, and he'll be able to score against guys bigger and taller than him because of his quick feet and quick hands. On offence, he's a PF who can start from the perimeter and finish in the paint. He'll be a perfect complement to Mason, who can pass and anchor the paint, but they'll need to play with perimeter players who can shoot from outside (hello Dawkins, Rasheed, and even Kelly!).

He'll probably be a lousy SF on offence unless he can develop that long-range jumpshot (which I still don't have LOL).

Kinda excited we have a guy like him (like me), I'll definitely be keeping an eye out.