General Election Thread (no partisan sniping allowed!)

[rthomas]

I will admit that I am a fan of Obama. But I'm a bigger fan of Bubba and Bruce. Even if I was a Romney person, I would go to this.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/us...n-ohio.html?hp

[dukestheheat]

You are the one who veered off into personal criticism. This is why conservatives don't frequent this thread.

...but I know the brethren love me anyway.

I'm on the right yet probably a little more towards the middle, and I'm nice about it. Let's face it, if we all thought the same way it would be sooooo boring.

Just don't get me going on taxes, tax rates, who pays a higher rate versus who actually pays MORE MONEY into the tax system, stuff like that, whew!!!

I love you guys, I really do,

Dukestheat


PS. For those who're curious or interested, my son Cameron chose to attend Davidson College, and he's in his first semester there and loves it! He felt that Davidson was the best match for him based on class size; he also wanted courses to be taught by professors and not graduate students, so now he's a Wildcat!

[Tom B.]

I will admit that I am a fan of Obama. But I'm a bigger fan of Bubba and Bruce. Even if I was a Romney person, I would go to this.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/us...n-ohio.html?hp

After being a Bruce fan since I was, oh, about 12, I finally got to see him in concert for the first time a few years ago. All I can say is that I hope I have half as much energy as he does when I'm pushing 60.

[Tom B.]

Interesting link, thanks.

If I am reading it correctly, assuming we use all of October and November's numbers, the challenger gains about 0.7% on the incumbent over the real close of the race from where we are now (roughly -- 4.7% increase versus 5.4%). My guess is that if we just used elections where we were in recessions/slow growth versus good times, the gap would be even larger. Folks broke late against Carter in '80; Bush Sr. lost in '92 after having something like an 80% approval rating eighteen months before. Reagan won in '84 although Mondale was a throw-back to the Carter policies when he had been VP. That may be the closest analogy since Romney (as best I can tell) is using the same economic theory as GWB (lower taxes, less regulation leads to growth that lifts all boats).

More Nate Silver geek porn -- some interesting insights (and perhaps a little balm for nervous Democrats) about what Gallup's been doing these last couple of days.

[Olympic Fan]

Today was the first day of early voing in North Carolina and the turnout was staggering -- I had to wait 20 minutes in line to cast my vote in Durham.

According to WRAL TV the first-day turnout is going to dwarf 2008, when over 117,000 casts votes on the first day. Statewide figures won't be released until Friday morning, but in Wake County, the first-day total rose from 7,918 in 2008 to 11,245 today:

http://www.wral.com/throngs-swamp-ea...n-nc/11673771/

Conventional wisdom suggests that early voting favors Democrats, but Republican spokesmen insist that they learned from 2008 (when they were blitzed by the early vote) and that their voters are part of today's crush. We'll see.

One more item ... 67,000 absentee ballots gave been requested -- 50 percent by Republicans, 25 percent from Democrats (the rest from Independents and Libertarian). That's a fairly normal distribution (while Democrats usually win the early voting, Republicans usually dominate absentee voting). It's not mentioned on the linked story, but over the air during the 11 o'clock news, WRAL said the number of absentee ballots is way down this cycle.

Again, I want to be careful not to read too much into that, but I have to think if early voting is up and absentee voting is down, that's good news for the Democrats.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Today was the first day of early voing in North Carolina and the turnout was staggering -- I had to wait 20 minutes in line to cast my vote in Durham.

I also had to wait about 20 minutes here on the coast. I knew the lines were going to be long due to some news reports I had read, my guess is they will lighten up as the days go past. What drove me nuts was the tea party members that accosted me from my car to the entrance of the building. I would have been just as pissed off if they were democrats. By the time I walked the 50' across the parking lot, I had been offered several sheets of paper with names that I should vote for, the whole time saying "no". And yet they still came. When I got inside and was at my actual voting booth, there lay 2 of those same sheets. "These are the candidates that we of the Tea Party support and feel you should vote for". It would be nice to be at the one last station in the voting process that I can possibly be at and STILL not have outside materials trying to influence me. I rarely vote for the judges since I don't know anything about them, but at that point I was so ticked off I intentionally voted for the opponent on every one of those names listed on that sheet.
Cell phones aren't allowed in the voting booth; promotional materials should not be either. And if they are, then there should be an election staffer making sure that each booth is cleaned before it used again.

[alteran]

Again, I want to be careful not to read too much into that, but I have to think if early voting is up and absentee voting is down, that's good news for the Democrats.

If traditional patterns hold that would absolutely be true. But it could just as easily be the GOP emphasizing early voting over absentee voting. NC dems have been making some noise that they have built a significant registration boost over the last 2 years, something on the order of 200k. That could also be a factor in a early voting surge. We'll just have no idea until the votes are counted.

I'll be early voting myself sometime soon in the Old North State (the geographically inaccurate but highly preferred nickname for North Carolina).

Anyone else here find absentee voting unsatisfying? To me there's something qualitatively more satisfying about walking in and casting my vote. It's a little inconvenient but I look forward to it, whereas just the idea of an absentee ballot makes me think about standardized testing and/or filling out tax forms.

[JasonEvans]

What drove me nuts was the tea party members that accosted me from my car to the entrance of the building. I would have been just as pissed off if they were democrats. By the time I walked the 50' across the parking lot, I had been offered several sheets of paper with names that I should vote for, the whole time saying "no". And yet they still came. When I got inside and was at my actual voting booth, there lay 2 of those same sheets. "These are the candidates that we of the Tea Party support and feel you should vote for". It would be nice to be at the one last station in the voting process that I can possibly be at and STILL not have outside materials trying to influence me. I rarely vote for the judges since I don't know anything about them, but at that point I was so ticked off I intentionally voted for the opponent on every one of those names listed on that sheet.
Cell phones aren't allowed in the voting booth; promotional materials should not be either. And if they are, then there should be an election staffer making sure that each booth is cleaned before it used again.

Wait, doesn't NC have a law about no campaigning within xx-feet of a voting place? In Georgia, we have the following law --

No person may campaign; distribute literature of written or printed matter of any kind; wear campaign buttons, signs, pins, stickers, T-shirts, etc.; circulate petitions; or perform similar activities within 150 feet of the building in which a polling place is located.

Yeah, I just looked and NC has the same kind of law, though it only applies to 50-feet from the door to the voting place. Look at this link to see how ineffective that is as it allows these people to harass you in the parking lot unless you park in the spaces right next to the entrance.

If you saw campaigning literature INSIDE THE PRECINCT you should take a picture of it and send it to local news as well as the Secy. of State's office. That should be illegal.

-Jason "I find campaigning near a voting precinct to be awful -- leave the voters alone at that point!" Evans

[Mike Corey]

A few things on this lovely Friday CTC morning.

• About 400,000 Ohioans have voted already, a figure that (I don't believe) includes those who have mailed in their ballots.
• Sticking with the heart of it all, Ohio's unemployment rate is now down to 7.0%, the lowest figure since September 2008. It peaked at 10.6% in the first year of Obama's presidency, dropped to 9.0% when Governor Kasich (R) came aboard in January 2011, and with the exception of a blip in that first year, has been dropping ever since. Probably bodes better for Obama, but who knows.
• This is a great bit of political analysis that combines history, geography, geology and political science. The thesis? You can draw a line across the South and identify a series of consistently blue counties in the middle of some of the reddest states in the country. Why? Plankton. Intrigued? Read the story.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Wait, doesn't NC have a law about no campaigning within xx-feet of a voting place? In Georgia, we have the following law --



Yeah, I just looked and NC has the same kind of law, though it only applies to 50-feet from the door to the voting place. Look at this link to see how ineffective that is as it allows these people to harass you in the parking lot unless you park in the spaces right next to the entrance.

If you saw campaigning literature INSIDE THE PRECINCT you should take a picture of it and send it to local news as well as the Secy. of State's office. That should be illegal.

-Jason "I find campaigning near a voting precinct to be awful -- leave the voters alone at that point!" Evans

If I had known before, I would have taken pics of the people harrassing me and the materials in the booth. Oh well, not much I can do now. I think it is interesting about the 50' law..since I'm assuming the election officials both inside and outside are fully aware of those folks since they are standing there watching them. Grrrr.

[alteran]

If I had known before, I would have taken pics of the people harrassing me and the materials in the booth. Oh well, not much I can do now. I think it is interesting about the 50' law..since I'm assuming the election officials both inside and outside are fully aware of those folks since they are standing there watching them. Grrrr.

If you don't mind, where did you early vote? If it was in Durham, I can make calls and get it checked out. Feel free to IM me.

FWIW there have definitely been examples of parties engaging in outrageous behavior to offend people into voting the way they want you to by advocating their foes and being jerks while they do it. There were certain precincts in 2008 where robocalls hammered people in the AM dozens of times, and angry voters swore not to vote for those candidates and swamped the party call lines to complain. Of course, the party had nothing to do with the AM calls, and got double punished because angry folks blocked up phone lines dedicated to getting out the vote.

[Tom B.]

Conventional wisdom suggests that early voting favors Democrats, but Republican spokesmen insist that they learned from 2008 (when they were blitzed by the early vote) and that their voters are part of today's crush. We'll see.

One more item ... 67,000 absentee ballots gave been requested -- 50 percent by Republicans, 25 percent from Democrats (the rest from Independents and Libertarian). That's a fairly normal distribution (while Democrats usually win the early voting, Republicans usually dominate absentee voting). It's not mentioned on the linked story, but over the air during the 11 o'clock news, WRAL said the number of absentee ballots is way down this cycle.

Again, I want to be careful not to read too much into that, but I have to think if early voting is up and absentee voting is down, that's good news for the Democrats.

The two observations could be related. Republicans almost certainly have learned their lesson on early voting from 2008 (if they haven't, their organizers should be fired), so I think it's a virtual certainty that more Republicans will vote early this year -- and with Democratic organizers pushing early voting even harder this year than in 2008, it wouldn't surprise me if more Democrats will vote early too. If early voting is up across the board, then it stands to reason that you'd have fewer people requesting absentee ballots.

Alas, no early in-person voting here in Virginia -- the only way to vote early is absentee. So I'll be hauling my butt to my precinct on November 6. And yes, I agree with the poster above who said there's something more satisfying about voting in person than voting absentee (plus, you get the little "I voted" sticker to put on your shirt from the nice ladies who staff the precinct).

[Dukeface88]

Anyone else here find absentee voting unsatisfying? To me there's something qualitatively more satisfying about walking in and casting my vote. It's a little inconvenient but I look forward to it, whereas just the idea of an absentee ballot makes me think about standardized testing and/or filling out tax forms.

The thing I like about absentee voting is that I can easily look up information about the candidates/issues. Florida is voting on about ten constitutional amendments, which are predictably incomprehensible. I didn't even realize they were on there before looking at my ballot; now I can go look them up instead of guessing at their meaning.

[Tommac]

If you saw campaigning literature INSIDE THE PRECINCT you should take a picture of it and send it to local news as well as the Secy. of State's office. That should be illegal.

-Jason "I find campaigning near a voting precinct to be awful -- leave the voters alone at that point!" Evans

Would not the campaign literature probably been left inside the voting booth by a previous voter? Unless someone saw a campaigner placing the literature inside the booth, I don't think the sec of state would be interested.

[Olympic Fan]

Would not the campaign literature probably been left inside the voting booth by a previous voter? Unless someone saw a campaigner placing the literature inside the booth, I don't think the sec of state would be interested.

I think you have it exactly right. There is no rule against a voter carrying such material into the polling place ... it should not be left in a booth. I would think that's the responsibility of the poll workers to clear those out, but thpse are mostly overworked volunteers and when the lines are long, they don't have time to check after each voter.

If any of you see stuff like that, the simplest thing is to pick it up and throw it away.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think you have it exactly right. There is no rule against a voter carrying such material into the polling place ... it should not be left in a booth. I would think that's the responsibility of the poll workers to clear those out, but thpse are mostly overworked volunteers and when the lines are long, they don't have time to check after each voter.

If any of you see stuff like that, the simplest thing is to pick it up and throw it away.

Both you and Tommac are right. I don't think it was left there by a sympathetic voter intentionally, I think it was left there by a person in need of a trash can. I just wish the election officials could police the booths a bit better, there should not be any material awaiting me when I get to the booth. On my way out, I took the pamphlets and found their proper place.

[moonpie23]

i hope they don't accost me....i have a very foul mouth when accosted and the words won't contain "wanker for saying this"....gotta be careful when you approach crazy people...you gotta make sure YOU'RE the crazy one...

[Wander]

The thing I like about absentee voting is that I can easily look up information about the candidates/issues. Florida is voting on about ten constitutional amendments, which are predictably incomprehensible. I didn't even realize they were on there before looking at my ballot; now I can go look them up instead of guessing at their meaning.

I hear you. Even for a straightforward and well-known issue like gay marriage, I have to read the amendment a dozen times just to be certain I know which sides "yes" and "no" correspond to. It's annoying.

FWIW there have definitely been examples of parties engaging in outrageous behavior to offend people into voting the way they want you to by advocating their foes and being jerks while they do it.

I've been waiting for the day when this happens in sports. Have a bunch of people dress like UNC fans and throw junk onto the court in Chapel Hill during a time out or something in an attempt to get the opponent technical free throws. I don't advocate this, just surprised I've never seen it.

[nocilla]

This is a great site to get candidate profiles for all the NC races. You enter your zipcode and then it takes you through all the candidates that you will see on your actual ballot. My ballot had 20 races and it had candidate profiles and statements for all of them, including the judges and my local county commissioners. You also have the option to make your choices as you go and print it out at the end. This can be a very handy to take with you to the poll. I would recommend anyone voting to go through it.

http://ncvoterguide.org/

[gus]

Would not the campaign literature probably been left inside the voting booth by a previous voter? Unless someone saw a campaigner placing the literature inside the booth, I don't think the sec of state would be interested.

That does seem like the simplest and likliest explanation.

I think we're going to see a lot of hysteria around the vote, unfortunately, and it will be difficult to filter the real abuses (which is likely to happen on a small scale) from overreaction (which is certain to happen).