Latest polling data suggests that the race continues to tighten, though Obama remains the clear favorite:
Intrade has Obama's odds of winning at 53% (down from ~60% through most of the GOP primary race), and Romney's at 42% (up from the 35-38% range generally seen since he effectively locked up the nomination)
RealClear Politics' average of recent national polls has Obama ahead by 0.8% (45.7% to 44.9%), down from the +3% range observed over most of the past few months, with an increasing percentage of undecideds
In terms of the Electoral College, RCP also shows several more states that had been Obama leans now in the "Toss Up" category. The President still has a 221-170 edge in terms of "Likely" and "Lean" states.
None of this is terribly surprising, given recent economic news domestic and abroad, as well as the President's unfortunate and widely reported gaffe about the private sector "doing just fine". Another wild card is the pending Supreme Court ruling(s) on ObamaCare. Intrade currently has the odds of the individual mandate being struck down at 68%. Conventional wisdom says that this would hurt the President, but Karl Rove - of all people - makes an interesting case in today's WSJ that it could in fact provide a golden opportunity for Obama to "tack back to the center".
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...mod=hp_opinion