View Poll Results: Predict the result of the Presidential Election

Voters
74. You may not vote on this poll
  • Obama landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    2 2.70%
  • Obama comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    17 22.97%
  • Obama close win (279-290 EVs)

    27 36.49%
  • Obama barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    6 8.11%
  • Exact tie 269-269

    0 0%
  • Romney barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney close win (279-290 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    1 1.35%
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  1. #1061
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    Feb 2008
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    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Congrats Dave and Mrs. Dave!
    Thank you all! Now to start brainwashing her to cheer for Duke and for State (for my wife), against UNC, and vote Republican.

    Although if my 3 year old heard about Romney's Sesame Street remark, she'd be an Obama supporter in a heartbeat.

    And speaking of the Sesame Street remark, this is a classic example of dumb politics. I thought Romney had an exceptional debate and did a great job delivering a message that he wanted the POTUS job to help all Americans, especially the middle class, by job creation. But the Sesame Street remark, while humorous, was dumb. Even if you feel that PBS is a waste of tax dollars, it's a tiny part of a massive federal budget. Are we going to solve our debt problem by eliminating PBS? It's just not a hill worth dying on. But for a party that stuggles to get the "mom" vote, do you really want to make a remark implying the absolute all-time most popular kids show is going to get the ax if you're elected?

    Of course, realistically, if PBS were gone today, Sesame Street would be fine. But it was dumb politics for Romney to go there at all.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  2. #1062
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    Mar 2007
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    Key West, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post

    Of course, realistically, if PBS were gone today, Sesame Street would be fine. But it was dumb politics for Romney to go there at all.
    I've been wondering if I get ths impression largely due to the politics of me and most of my friends, but the Big Bird comment seems to have the longest life, to the exclusion of all else that Romney said. The use of a popular, friendly and funny-looking character as scapegoat for budget woes may have been dumb if that's all that people remember.

    If you haven't seen it, btw, the Lukovich illustration of the Romney Situation Room during the raid on Big Bird's compound is a classic!
    No soup for you!

  3. #1063
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by AtlBluRew View Post
    I've been wondering if I get ths impression largely due to the politics of me and most of my friends, but the Big Bird comment seems to have the longest life, to the exclusion of all else that Romney said. The use of a popular, friendly and funny-looking character as scapegoat for budget woes may have been dumb if that's all that people remember.

    If you haven't seen it, btw, the Lukovich illustration of the Romney Situation Room during the raid on Big Bird's compound is a classic!


    I also enjoyed this one...


    -Jason
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  4. #1064
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    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by AtlBluRew View Post
    I've been wondering if I get ths impression largely due to the politics of me and most of my friends, but the Big Bird comment seems to have the longest life, to the exclusion of all else that Romney said.
    I don't think so. If that were the case, we wouldn't see the clear movement in the polls that we have (so far, at least preliminarily) seen in Romney's direction post-debate.

  5. #1065
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    Mar 2007
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    Key West, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I don't think so. If that were the case, we wouldn't see the clear movement in the polls that we have (so far, at least preliminarily) seen in Romney's direction post-debate.
    Those polls may be a little soon for my point. People seem to remember that the performance aspect was great, but, except for the Obama Camp protests that Romney lied, I'm not seeing or hearing repetition of things Romney actually said, besides taking aim at Big Bird. I think this movement is the result of the performance, and i am not finding fault with that, because those perceptions count. As the other debates occur, though, the memory of the performance will blend into perceptions from the other debates, and Big Bird will still be fodder for late night comics and editorial cartoons.

    BTW, in hearing the remark again, I am reminded of something I thought was really politically smart. Romney demonized China, by saying he'd evaluate all programs by determining whether they worthy enough to borrow money from China to pay for. That, alone, was a good "zinger," if that's what it was meant to be. But it's gotten overshadowed by Big Bird.
    No soup for you!

  6. #1066
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    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by AtlBluRew View Post
    Those polls may be a little soon for my point. People seem to remember that the performance aspect was great, but, except for the Obama Camp protests that Romney lied, I'm not seeing or hearing repetition of things Romney actually said, besides taking aim at Big Bird. I think this movement is the result of the performance, and i am not finding fault with that, because those perceptions count. As the other debates occur, though, the memory of the performance will blend into perceptions from the other debates, and Big Bird will still be fodder for late night comics and editorial cartoons.

    BTW, in hearing the remark again, I am reminded of something I thought was really politically smart. Romney demonized China, by saying he'd evaluate all programs by determining whether they worthy enough to borrow money from China to pay for. That, alone, was a good "zinger," if that's what it was meant to be. But it's gotten overshadowed by Big Bird.
    I have seen Obama ads on China, quoting Mitt from an old Bain pitch that trumpeted investments using cheap Chinese labor and costs. The tag line is "Mitt Romney -- tough on Cina since when?"

    I assume it is a part of a national ad buy, hard to think it is targeted in Georgia.
    Roy, be a man. Accept responsibility and resign.

  7. #1067
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    Mar 2007
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    Key West, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I have seen Obama ads on China, quoting Mitt from an old Bain pitch that trumpeted investments using cheap Chinese labor and costs. The tag line is "Mitt Romney -- tough on Cina since when?"

    I assume it is a part of a national ad buy, hard to think it is targeted in Georgia.
    I've seen those ads here in south Florida as well.
    No soup for you!

  8. #1068
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by AtlBluRew View Post
    Those polls may be a little soon for my point. People seem to remember that the performance aspect was great, but, except for the Obama Camp protests that Romney lied, I'm not seeing or hearing repetition of things Romney actually said, besides taking aim at Big Bird. I think this movement is the result of the performance, and i am not finding fault with that, because those perceptions count. As the other debates occur, though, the memory of the performance will blend into perceptions from the other debates, and Big Bird will still be fodder for late night comics and editorial cartoons.

    BTW, in hearing the remark again, I am reminded of something I thought was really politically smart. Romney demonized China, by saying he'd evaluate all programs by determining whether they worthy enough to borrow money from China to pay for. That, alone, was a good "zinger," if that's what it was meant to be. But it's gotten overshadowed by Big Bird.
    I'm hearing a lot of discussion of the Big Bird comment and some other stuff spinning somewhat against Romney in the media, but it looks to me like the poll movement is unaffected.

    Romney is credible again.

    Polls in the next few days should be all post-debate, which should give us a better feel on where the election is.

  9. #1069
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Lompoc, West Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post


    I also enjoyed this one...


    -Jason
    Are either of these illustrations open to a good old-fashioned 'snipe'?
    After all, a dissenting viewpoint might only be considered fair.

  10. #1070
    The Big Bird comment was just a little red meat for the base, which tends to be against government spending on things like PBS and the National Endowment for the Arts. I haven't seen anything that makes me think it will hurt Romney... Generally people "feel" he did well, and feelings are the most important thing to take away from the debates (as one might expect given a format that encourages two minute answers to our nations biggest challenges).

  11. #1071
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Columbus, Ohio
    The Big Bird slant--and the rehearsed qualifier about liking Jim Lehrer, too--was meant to lessen the coldness of cutting funding to PBS. This is absolutely red meat for the base, but by bringing Big Bird into the equation, the Romney camp miscalculated. Even when Romney is excelling in performance, this bit of teasing has come to epitomize another aspect of the caricature Obama and Co. have helped to craft (often with Romney's help, to be fair) of the would-be president from Massachusetts.

    But as the Ohio Democratic Party reminded OSU students in an ad in the student paper on Friday, Romney is a M*chigan Wolverine at heart:


  12. #1072
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by captmojo View Post
    Are either of these illustrations open to a good old-fashioned 'snipe'?
    After all, a dissenting viewpoint might only be considered fair.
    In the interest of fairness, here are a couple from "the other side" that I found amusing.





    -Jason "sorry to seem partisan, I hope both sides can laugh at each other" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  13. #1073
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    Feb 2007
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    Lompoc, West Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In the interest of fairness, here are a couple from "the other side" that I found amusing.





    -Jason "sorry to seem partisan, I hope both sides can laugh at each other" Evans
    A well played curse-breaker, Sir.

  14. #1074
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs

    Poll watch

    A few interesting ones to report today.

    Rassmussen and Gallup tracking polls, which now have a healthy sample of post-debate watchers included in them, both have the race dead even nationally right now. They have both been more Romney-leaning than other pollsters, so that may translate into a 1 or 2 point Obama lead. Politico's new poll today has the race as a 1 point Obama lead.

    We got some state polls too, but from GOP or Democratic leaning pollsters, making them harder to assess.

    PPP (Dem) has Obama up 3 in Virginia. PPP's last poll there was about 3 weeks ago and had Obama up 5. But, that poll was not an outlier and fell right in the middle of where other pollsters at that time put the Virginia race. That makes it possible that this current number, Obama +3) is a reasonably accurate assessment of Virginia right now.

    Rassmussen (GOP) has a 1 point lead for Obama in Colorado. But, Rass has been consistently 2-3 points pro-Romney as compared to other pollsters in Colorado, which may mean that Colorado is more like a 3 point Obama lead right now.

    I think all polls done prior to this weekend are pretty much useless at this point. It is clear that Romney has really tightened the race by his debate performance. For a couple days it looked like he might have even pulled into the lead. Instead, it now seems more like we are where we were prior to the conventions and the 47% comment. A very close race nationally but slim leads for Obama in most of the swing states.

    We now need to see if Romney's debate boost was a bump or a bounce. A bump sticks around. A bounce fades. Romney has certainly made it close enough so that the negative press stories about GOP money abandoning him and dissent within his campaign leadership should go away.

    -Jason "70 million saw the debate... 70 mil saw Palin-Biden debate 4 years ago... I bet less than 50 million watch this VP debate on Thursday" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  15. #1075
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington, DC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "70 million saw the debate... 70 mil saw Palin-Biden debate 4 years ago... I bet less than 50 million watch this VP debate on Thursday" Evans
    Will be interesting to see the numbers. Unlike 4 years ago, there will be a NFL game on that night (Steelers/Titans). Granted, it's on the NFL Network, which will decrease numbers, but I'd like to see how the NFL cuts into those numbers.
    2003-2004 HLM

    Duke | Mirecourt | Detroit| The U | USA

  16. #1076
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    Will be interesting to see the numbers. Unlike 4 years ago, there will be a NFL game on that night (Steelers/Titans). Granted, it's on the NFL Network, which will decrease numbers, but I'd like to see how the NFL cuts into those numbers.
    I think not having Palin will cut into the numbers the most. She was galvanizing/polarizing and folks on both sides of the aisle were dying to see how she did.

    By comparison, the 2004 Cheney-Edwards debate was seen by 43.6 million people, which was considered a large number at the time.

    -Jason "I just don't think Biden or Ryan are all that exciting to either side -- though Ryan is certainly more popular among the GOP than Biden is among the Dems" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  17. #1077
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    We now need to see if Romney's debate boost was a bump or a bounce. A bump sticks around. A bounce fades. Romney has certainly made it close enough so that the negative press stories about GOP money abandoning him and dissent within his campaign leadership should go away.

    -Jason "70 million saw the debate... 70 mil saw Palin-Biden debate 4 years ago... I bet less than 50 million watch this VP debate on Thursday" Evans
    I think it has the chance to be a bump but it won't be a bump on its own, he'll have to continue to follow it up aggressively. The VP debate probably isn't as important as I originally thought with it being on a Thursday with NFL football and no Palin as you mentioned. This probably hurts Romney because I really thought Ryan would run circles around Biden about the economy although I guess Joe has the benefit if he is able to poke holes through Ryan's budget and follow it up with tying Ryan to the failed Bowles-Simpson plan that Romney brought up. Either way, I don't think this debate will do much more than just excite the base and it'll be damage control for the Dems since most people will probably just hear who won based on the national media so Joe doesn't need a win but can't afford an outright defeat. I also think this VP debate isn't as important b/c neither candidate is as old as McCain would have been and neither VP choice is as controversial as Palin b/c many Americans were very worried about McCain dying and Palin becoming President.

    So with that, Romney seems trying to shift the attention to foreign policy which will become more focused in the next 2 debates (the next one being foreign/domestic and the last one being solely foreign policy). Romney trails in foreign policy polls and is trying to argue we need more intervention in the Middle East in places like Syria and Iran, however, I think most Americans are afraid to tie anything more than aid in any more uprisings as most Americans are against intervention in Syria. Additionally, he will have to try to make Iran into a credible threat for a nuclear program which will be very hard given the last time we heard about WMDs. This position will probably help with the Jewish vote especially in the battleground of Florida which accounts for 8% of the expected voters and could tighten up Florida but might risk losing ground in other places.

  18. #1078
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    These numbers are, in some ways, a staggering change since last month, particularly Romney's gain with women.

    http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/...s-obamas-lead/
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  19. #1079
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    This was easy to see coming....as I wrote after the debate, given the economy people were looking for a reason to vote for Romney, and they got one, and he's gotten a solid week's worth of free positive advertising, while Obama has received a week's worth of negative advertising. I'll repeat what I said....Romney is going to win.

    Now Obama will come out swinging, and he'll look bitter and desperate (which is just how Romney will spin it). It seems to me that at the next debate Obama's strategy should be to attack on all the things that resonate with the swing voters (Romney's tax returns, Medicare, 47% comment, women's health issues). But I think the damage has been done.

    Really remarkable when you look at it. A week ago today, this election was over. Obama had it won. Now he's staggering and Romney has all the momentum.

  20. #1080
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    While I respect and appreciate Udaman's opinion, I do not think things are nearly so dire for the Obama campaign. After the worst defeat in political debate history since Admiral Stockdale was befallen by a hearing aid, Obama's lead is where it stood prior to the conventions.

    Romney's been trailing Obama for months and months. That hasn't changed, either, though the gap has quite obviously closed.

    The unemployment figure improving changed much of what the narrative might have been over the weekend, and many in the GOP asserting that it was some collusive plot between Hilda Solis and the president didn't help Romney's case with undecideds.

    Of course, another disastrous debate performance from Obama--or some similar undressing--would have me singing a different tune. Indeed, up until Romney chose Paul Ryan as his running mate, I was rather convinced that Romney would pull ahead in September and never relinquish the lead.

    But a good night can't make up for a bad campaign quite so far from the election itself. At least, I think not. We shall see. The Obama camp is certainly reeling and the Romney campaign is peaking.

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