View Poll Results: Predict the result of the Presidential Election

Voters
74. You may not vote on this poll
  • Obama landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    2 2.70%
  • Obama comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    17 22.97%
  • Obama close win (279-290 EVs)

    27 36.49%
  • Obama barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    6 8.11%
  • Exact tie 269-269

    0 0%
  • Romney barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney close win (279-290 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    1 1.35%
Page 53 of 99 FirstFirst ... 343515253545563 ... LastLast
Results 1,041 to 1,060 of 1980
  1. #1041
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    To say that "it's all about Big Bird" entirely misses the point of any attack on the PBS and the NEA. The arts are extremely important to a lot of people, even though this nation is probably the most hostile to the arts of any rich country. When you attack the NEA, and you attack the main delivery vehicle for the Arts into people's homes (PBS), you are attacking the arts in a very direct way. To trivialize this issue by reducing it to Big Bird alone demonstrates a complete failure to understand the issue or the importance of the arts to many people.

    That's about as measured a statement as I can make about that.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  2. #1042
    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    This is the somewhat humorous but sad part of our political discourse that 90 minutes will probably end up being more remembered for Big Bird than anything else. I'm not sure if this is part of the liberal media or just most of the public trying to simplify politics after being lost in discussions of Bowles-Simpson or Dodd-Frank. Either way, as good as Romney was, it seems to be a serious miscalculation to bring up Big Bird, he could have easily brought up PBS and not mentioned Sesame Street and gotten away with it. He was just lucky Obama didn't let this one fly during the debate, "Romney Plans To Let Wall Street Run Wild Again, But He's Bringing The Hammer Down on Sesame Street".
    It's not really in the media (so-called "liberal media" or otherwise) that the Big Bird thing's been getting traction, though. Mrs. Mal was on Facebook an hour after the debate, and it was all over the place there already. It's a purely internet meme phenomenon, so far as I can tell, and all media coverage I've seen is simply reporting on twitter blowing up over it.

    Perhaps it's all because of what you note, an attempt to boil what was a somewhat surprisingly fairly substantive debate down to something simple. I suspect, however, that it's also because of the inherent gold mine of humor that resides in the idea of a fictional, 8-foot tall, puppet bird being invoked during a Presidential debate. It lends itself to a lot of easy visuals, and the image of Big Bird itself is one that literally everyone is familiar with. I agree that it's one of those weird things that Romney's likely to regret over the long run - or whoever fed him the line, because it seemed pretty clearly prescripted for him.

  3. #1043
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    To say that "it's all about Big Bird" entirely misses the point of any attack on the PBS and the NEA. The arts are extremely important to a lot of people, even though this nation is probably the most hostile to the arts of any rich country. When you attack the NEA, and you attack the main delivery vehicle for the Arts into people's homes (PBS), you are attacking the arts in a very direct way. To trivialize this issue by reducing it to Big Bird alone demonstrates a complete failure to understand the issue or the importance of the arts to many people.

    That's about as measured a statement as I can make about that.
    Too his credit, Romney did say that he was going to cut Jim Lehrer's job too.
    ~rthomas

  4. #1044
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I don't know how far around the media something needs to be spread to be "in the media," but PBS put out a press release:

    http://www.pbs.org/about/news/archiv...ential-debate/

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  5. #1045
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
    Unrelated thought: one thing I've found interesting [read: sad] in the debate aftermath is that, two days on now, while the aesthetic consensus is that Romney seemed well-prepared and aggressive and the President flat, the only thing anyone's taken away from the debate substantively is Big Bird. It's an open question whether the Obama campaign can effectively use the blatant reversal of many of his campaign platforms during the debate against Romney or not (especially the denial of his proposed tax cuts for the very wealthy), and whether or not Romney's wholehearted embrace of Medicare vouchers might wound him. But for most people, it's all Big Bird, all the time on twitter and Facebook, apparently. It sort of blunts Romney's attempts at pivoting toward moderation in the debate if all anyone remembers is he's the heartless monster who would throw Fred Rogers into the street.
    I don't know if it's a consequence of the short attention span of the average American, and a general lack of desire for detail and nuance, or if it was a deliberate strategy from liberals, or even the Obama Campaign, but if one of the latter from a tactical standpoint, turning a Romney advantage so quickly into jokes about him attacking Big Bird is brilliant. And like you said... deeply sad.

  6. #1046
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    But I think the unemployment number from January 2009 is an artificial point of comparison.
    While this is absolutely true, and your points above accurate and succinct, the political salience to this today is that that point of comparison is out there because Romney put it there. He's made a big deal out of pointing to a net negative number for Obama's term, and been unapologetic about including the first 3-6 months of his Presidency in those numbers, so that he could boil it down to a digestible attack line of "There are less jobs out there now than when Obama came into office." It's been a lot harder for Obama to counter that with the logical yet nuanced points you make above. It's a lot easier for Obama to counter that with "Not true. Look at the numbers. Neener, neener." There's been a lot of talk from Republicans this year, including Romney, about how the President doesn't deserve re-election with an unemployment rate of greater than a magic number of 8%. Well, it's now below 8%, so as simplistic as it is, it deflates some rhetorical air, if used properly.

  7. #1047
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    There are two conspiracies circulating today: that Hilda Solis doctored the unemployment rate, and that Mitt Romney brought crib notes to the debate.

    Of course, the numbers weren't doctored, and of course, the "thing" that Romney pulled out of his pocket after walking onto stage was a handkerchief, not cheat sheets.

    This election needs to end.
    Last edited by Mike Corey; 10-05-2012 at 03:32 PM.

  8. #1048
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    There are two conspiracies circulating today: that Hilda Solis doctored the unemployment rate, and that Mitt Romney brought crib notes to the debate.

    Of course, the numbers weren't doctored, and of course, the "thing" that Romney pulled out of his pocket after walking onto stage was a handkerchief, not cheat sheets.

    This election needs to end.
    Who is served by a false equivalence between Fox News and losers on YouTube? How does that enhance our understanding of the world?

  9. #1049
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by rthomas View Post
    Too his credit, Romney did say that he was going to cut Jim Lehrer's job too.
    Well, the two of those things should about balance the budget. Problem solved.

  10. #1050
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Who is served by a false equivalence between Fox News and losers on YouTube? How does that enhance our understanding of the world?
    I do not think he was saying they were equivalent. They are two memes going around.

  11. #1051
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Stray Gator View Post
    While I don't profess to be an economics expert, the numbers provided by the CNN article that headlines the 7.8% unemployment rate are somewhat puzzling to me. First, it reports that "a survey of U.S. households showed 873,000 more Americans had jobs compared to a month earlier." But then it reports that "[a] separate survey of employers, considered the key metric that Wall Street watches, showed businesses added 114,000 jobs in September. It marked a slowdown in hiring, after July and August were revised significantly higher." How could 873,000 more people have jobs if businesses only added 114,000 jobs?

    Part of the explanation may lie in the subsequent statement that "[i]n the most recent household survey, the biggest hiring gains came in the form of 582,000 new part-time jobs in September. Part of that number can be explained by young workers, ages 16 to 24. The data show this age group saw a huge pickup in jobs in September, due almost entirely to seasonal adjustments by the Labor Department." Does that mean most of the 873,000 new jobs reported in the household survey, which constitutes the basis for the 7.8% unemployment rate, were part-time jobs of people under the age of 24 that are mainly a result of Labor Department adjustments?

    Finally, the article concludes with the following:

    Although the unemployment rate is right back to where it was when Obama entered office, the U.S. economy has still not recovered all the jobs lost before his inauguration.

    Of the 8.8 million jobs cut during the recession, about 4.3 million have been added back. The Labor Department signaled last week that it may revise the job gains higher, but even so, the job market still has a long way to go before it's fully healed.

    About 12.1 million people were unemployed in September, and 40% of them have been so for six months or more.

    The so-called "underemployment rate," which includes people who are working part time for economic reasons, and those who have recently dropped out of the labor force, was 14.7% in September.


    That part of the article indicates that the unemployment rate is "back to where it was" when President Obama took office, not lower. And while the article notes that government jobs grew in September, "[m]anufacturers cut 16,000 jobs -- the second month in a row they've slashed workers."

    So when I read the entire article and try to digest all of the data, I find a bit confusing to determine the extent to which the employment situation is really improving.
    I'm by no means an expert on the BLS's methodologies, but the official rate is seasonally adjusted. I would have expected the seasonal adjustment in September to push the rate higher, as many teachers are returning to work (ie, employment is expected to increase, so absent any other changes outside of the seasonal change, the unemployment rate would not move), but I really don't know. Gallup's non-adjusted rate for September is about 7.9.

  12. #1052
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    If Obama has had the ability to rig the employment numbers, and for four years he's been too timid or too stupid to use that power, and in the meantime allowed himself and his administration to be pilloried by its political opponents for poor performance in promoting job growth, why then, I guess that's reason enough right there to fire him, isn't it?

  13. #1053
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    This election needs to end.
    For some reason this put me in mind of the Kilgore "smell of napalm in the morning" scene in Apocalypse Now. Seems an appropiately symbolic representation of a modern Presidential election.

    Cue Robert Duvall, crouching down amidst carnage on the beach, with bombs exploding all over the tree line and bullets flying: "Some day this campaign's gonna end."

  14. #1054
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Stray Gator View Post
    While I don't profess to be an economics expert, the numbers provided by the CNN article that headlines the 7.8% unemployment rate are somewhat puzzling to me. First, it reports that "a survey of U.S. households showed 873,000 more Americans had jobs compared to a month earlier." But then it reports that "[a] separate survey of employers, considered the key metric that Wall Street watches, showed businesses added 114,000 jobs in September. It marked a slowdown in hiring, after July and August were revised significantly higher." How could 873,000 more people have jobs if businesses only added 114,000 jobs?

    Part of the explanation may lie in the subsequent statement that "[i]n the most recent household survey, the biggest hiring gains came in the form of 582,000 new part-time jobs in September. Part of that number can be explained by young workers, ages 16 to 24. The data show this age group saw a huge pickup in jobs in September, due almost entirely to seasonal adjustments by the Labor Department." Does that mean most of the 873,000 new jobs reported in the household survey, which constitutes the basis for the 7.8% unemployment rate, were part-time jobs of people under the age of 24 that are mainly a result of Labor Department adjustments?

    Finally, the article concludes with the following:

    Although the unemployment rate is right back to where it was when Obama entered office, the U.S. economy has still not recovered all the jobs lost before his inauguration.

    Of the 8.8 million jobs cut during the recession, about 4.3 million have been added back. The Labor Department signaled last week that it may revise the job gains higher, but even so, the job market still has a long way to go before it's fully healed.

    About 12.1 million people were unemployed in September, and 40% of them have been so for six months or more.

    The so-called "underemployment rate," which includes people who are working part time for economic reasons, and those who have recently dropped out of the labor force, was 14.7% in September.


    That part of the article indicates that the unemployment rate is "back to where it was" when President Obama took office, not lower. And while the article notes that government jobs grew in September, "[m]anufacturers cut 16,000 jobs -- the second month in a row they've slashed workers."

    So when I read the entire article and try to digest all of the data, I find a bit confusing to determine the extent to which the employment situation is really improving.
    Stray, I have forgotten most of what I once thought I knew about employment data and BLS, although when I was in goverrnment, the folks there provided some key statistics in setting and adjusting federal pay scales.

    WRT to the business survey vs. the household survey -- they are just different data sources. Household data defines the unemployment rate because it provides a denominator (number of people in the labor force).

    Business hiring is subject to the sampling and the reporting by businesses. You did note probably that the July and August were adjusted upwardly, meaning that previous months were understated and that the gain for the quarter is about 500 thousand jobs (based on the business surveys). That was quite a bit better than the quarter ending June 30.

    Employment data is always a bit confusing, but these appear to indicate some progress in the economy.

    sagegrouse
    Last edited by sagegrouse; 10-05-2012 at 05:52 PM. Reason: Searching for clarity -- didn't find it

  15. #1055
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Stray, I have forgotten most of what I once thought I knew about employment data and BLS, although when I was in goverrnment, the folks there provided some key statistics in setting and adjusting federal pay scales.

    WRT to the business survey vs. the household survey -- they are just different data sources. Household data defines the unemployment rate because it provides a denominator (number of people in the labor force).

    Business hiring is subject to the sampling and the reporting by businesses. You did note probably that the July and August were adjusted upwardly, meaning that previous months were understated and that the gain for the quarter is about 500 thousand jobs (based on the business surveys). That was quite a bit better than the quarter ending June 30.

    Employment data is always a bit confusing, but these appear to indicate some progress in the economy.

    sagegrouse
    As usual, both sides are engaging in a tremendous amount of hyperventilation and hyperbole regarding 7.8. The unemployment figure has always been useless in that it doesn't include those unemployed but no longer looking for work, and it lumps part-time labor in with full-time employment. Sage is right...there's progress in the economy, but the magic 7.8 that has GOP crying foul and Obama fist-pumping on stage is a lousy measure of economic progress (I equate it to BMI...an useless measure that's overused and tells us exactly nothing). By any measure the economy is better than it was 4 years ago, and not nearly as good as it needs to be. I wish Obama and Romney would argue about their differing philosophies on how to get the economy where it needs to be rather than the continuing drivel of "Bush screwed it up and I've about got it fixed" vs "You should have fixed it by now", which is basically the sum total of the discourse in this campaign to date.

    BTW, I didn't fall off the planet or spend 5 days in a drunken celebratory stupor after the debate...my wife and I welcomed Sophia Kay into the world on Sunday night. Well, my wife did all the hard work...

  16. #1056
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Ashburn, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    BTW, I didn't fall off the planet or spend 5 days in a drunken celebratory stupor after the debate...my wife and I welcomed Sophia Kay into the world on Sunday night. Well, my wife did all the hard work...
    Congrats !!

  17. #1057
    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    Congrats !!
    Yes, many congratulations!

    I've really been enjoying this thread, though I haven't had anything of substance to offer. But thanks everyone!

  18. #1058
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    BTW, I didn't fall off the planet or spend 5 days in a drunken celebratory stupor after the debate...my wife and I welcomed Sophia Kay into the world on Sunday night. Well, my wife did all the hard work...
    Welcome to the world, Sophia Kay! Congratulations to the parents.

  19. #1059
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    To say that "it's all about Big Bird" entirely misses the point of any attack on the PBS and the NEA. The arts are extremely important to a lot of people, even though this nation is probably the most hostile to the arts of any rich country. When you attack the NEA, and you attack the main delivery vehicle for the Arts into people's homes (PBS), you are attacking the arts in a very direct way. To trivialize this issue by reducing it to Big Bird alone demonstrates a complete failure to understand the issue or the importance of the arts to many people.

    That's about as measured a statement as I can make about that.
    And besides, Reading Rainbow is far superior to Sesame Street.

  20. #1060
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    BTW, I didn't fall off the planet or spend 5 days in a drunken celebratory stupor after the debate...my wife and I welcomed Sophia Kay into the world on Sunday night. Well, my wife did all the hard work...
    Congrats Dave and Mrs. Dave!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •