View Poll Results: Predict the result of the Presidential Election

Voters
74. You may not vote on this poll
  • Obama landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    2 2.70%
  • Obama comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    17 22.97%
  • Obama close win (279-290 EVs)

    27 36.49%
  • Obama barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    6 8.11%
  • Exact tie 269-269

    0 0%
  • Romney barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney close win (279-290 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    1 1.35%
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Results 81 to 100 of 1979
  1. #81
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    For folks who do not know about him, Corey Booker is a different kind of politician. He is a genuine hero after he rushed into a burning building to save a woman inside. We are talking about a guy who voluntarily lived in the worst part of town so he could keep an eye on drug dealers and poverty. A man who has made combating crime and boosting education funding his paramount goals because his city had such a horrid crime problem and such bad schools. Is there anyone out there who thinks fighting crime and educating our youth are bad ideas? Mark Zuckerberg was so impressed with Booker that he gave $100 million to the Newark Public School system.

    I don't know if Booker will ever aspire to higher office. People who know him say he thinks he can get more done staying a bit smaller. I think dealing with congress could frustrate him if he were to run for Senate or President.

    -Jason "Zuckerberg's gift is stunning... he has no ties to Newark at all" Evans
    Booker's probably the highest profile mayor in America outside of Bloomberg and Emanuel.

    A former Rhodes Scholar and Stanford football player, Booker's an unmarried man who works around the clock for Newark--responding to complaints about stoplights being out and to putting out fires.

    He's also got a pretty darn good working relationship with Gov. Christie.

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Booker's probably the highest profile mayor in America outside of Bloomberg and Emanuel.

    A former Rhodes Scholar and Stanford football player, Booker's an unmarried man who works around the clock for Newark--responding to complaints about stoplights being out and to putting out fires.

    He's also got a pretty darn good working relationship with Gov. Christie.
    I have family on all sides of the political spectrum who live in NJ. They all sing Booker's praises.

    I wonder if Zuckerberg would be inclined, if Booker was to be interested, that is, to write another 8 or 9 figure check and pay for Booker's campaign via a SuperPac. Now that would make things very interesting, to say the least.

  3. #83
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Annandale, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Here's a question. Who you think the Democrats will run in 2016? Clinton would be nearly 70 if she were to take office in 2017. The Democrats lost a lot of gubernatorial mansions in the slaughter of 2010.
    HRC will be the nominee in 2016 barring a health issue. A friend of mine spent some time almost 20 years ago at the Kennedy School of Government with the (now) Admiral that is her link to the Joint Chiefs. He is with her all the time and he is completely won over by her competence. She has done a great job at State and DOD pros have no issues with her.
    The Gordog

  4. #84
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by The Gordog View Post
    HRC will be the nominee in 2016 barring a health issue. A friend of mine spent some time almost 20 years ago at the Kennedy School of Government with the (now) Admiral that is her link to the Joint Chiefs. He is with her all the time and he is completely won over by her competence. She has done a great job at State and DOD pros have no issues with her.
    And you think that single fact will be determinative of the 2016 nomination race? Not only don't I think it will be the only issue, I don't think what the State and DOD pros think of her would even be close to the top of the list.

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by The Gordog View Post
    They only need 51% of the people who actually vote, which might be less than 25% of the adult citizen population.
    Where did you get this number? Voter turnout has never been less than 48% of the adult population in a presidential election. Last election it was about 57%. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops some but there is absolutely no chance it drops below 45%, let alone 25%, even if serious attempts at low turnout as a strategy are made.

    (In the spirit of full disclosure, there's no data for the very early elections before 1824, but I don't think any of us would argue those are relevant anyway.)

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Sterling, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Where did you get this number? Voter turnout has never been less than 48% of the adult population in a presidential election. Last election it was about 57%. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops some but there is absolutely no chance it drops below 45%, let alone 25%, even if serious attempts at low turnout as a strategy are made.
    I think he meant 51% majority * 49% of the population voting = 25% of the total population needed to win.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    I think he meant 51% majority * 49% of the population voting = 25% of the total population needed to win.
    Oops! My bad, good observation.

  8. #88

    hilary

    Just one point about HRC's age -- I'm pretty sure that she'll still be younger in 2016 than John McCain was when he ran in 2008.

    Obviously, he didn't win and maybe his age had a small part in that. But he did get the nomination.

    With Hilary, she'll still need to prove she's vital and entergetic, but other than that, I can't image age would be more than a minor factor.

    PS Different situation with an incumbent President, but how old was Reagan in 1984?

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Annandale, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    And you think that single fact will be determinative of the 2016 nomination race? Not only don't I think it will be the only issue, I don't think what the State and DOD pros think of her would even be close to the top of the list.
    No, I don't think it will be determinative, or even an 'issue' in most voters' conscious minds. What I think is that the Washington establishment will be solidly behind her. No one in the race on either side will have her credability. The money will flow and it will flow early. Unless there is a populist uprising, I don't think she can be effectively challenged for the nomination.
    The Gordog

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Annandale, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Where did you get this number? Voter turnout has never been less than 48% of the adult population in a presidential election. Last election it was about 57%. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops some but there is absolutely no chance it drops below 45%, let alone 25%, even if serious attempts at low turnout as a strategy are made.

    (In the spirit of full disclosure, there's no data for the very early elections before 1824, but I don't think any of us would argue those are relevant anyway.)
    I may be wrong, but my recollection is that turnout numbers reflect 'eligable voters', which is less than the adult population. If half the people vote than you only need 25% +1 person to win.
    The Gordog

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Booker's probably the highest profile mayor in America outside of Bloomberg and Emanuel.

    A former Rhodes Scholar and Stanford football player, Booker's an unmarried man who works around the clock for Newark--responding to complaints about stoplights being out and to putting out fires.

    He's also got a pretty darn good working relationship with Gov. Christie.
    Booker appeared on Meet the Press Sunday 5/20 with comments about attacks on private equity and about attacks involving Jeremiah Wright.

    [A]s far as that stuff, I have to say from a very personal level, Im not about to sit here and indict private equity, Booker said. Its just, to me, were getting to a ridiculous point in America. Especially, I know I live in a state where pension funds, unions and other people are investing in companies like Bain Capital. If you look at the totality of the record of Bain Capital, theyve done a lot to support businesses, to grow businesses. This, to me, Im very uncomfortable with.


    ....Enough is enough. Stop attacking private equity. Stop attacking Jeremiah Wright. This stuff has got to stop because what it does is it undermines to me what this country should be focused on. Its a distraction from the real issues

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Just one point about HRC's age -- I'm pretty sure that she'll still be younger in 2016 than John McCain was when he ran in 2008.... how old was Reagan in 1984?
    RR b. Feb 1911 = 73 y.o. in Nov 84
    JM b. Aug 1936 = 72 y.o. in Nov 08
    HC b. Oct 1947 = 69 y.o. in Nov 16

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    RR b. Feb 1911 = 73 y.o. in Nov 84
    JM b. Aug 1936 = 72 y.o. in Nov 08
    HC b. Oct 1947 = 69 y.o. in Nov 16
    And Bob Dole b. July 1923 = 73 y.o. in Nov 96.

  14. #94
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    RR b. Feb 1911 = 73 y.o. in Nov 84
    JM b. Aug 1936 = 72 y.o. in Nov 08
    HC b. Oct 1947 = 69 y.o. in Nov 16
    Of course, Reagan was first elected in 1980, when he was not yet 70, which I think is the more relevant date.

    sage
    'BTW anyone see the article yesterday about increase in longevity, esp. among males. The one data point that stood out was that the male life expectancy in New York state had increased 13.6 years between 1989 and 2009'

  15. #95
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Of course, Reagan was first elected in 1980, when he was not yet 70, which I think is the more relevant date.

    sage
    'BTW anyone see the article yesterday about increase in longevity, esp. among males. The one data point that stood out was that the male life expectancy in New York state had increased 13.6 years between 1989 and 2009'
    off thread topic, I know, but still: wait, what? I haven't done the research to look into the claim, but the idea that the male life expectancy in New York State has gone up that much -- that's about 21% -- in a period of just 20 years -- that seems preposterous to me. It's a huge jump in life expectancy in a very, very short number of years.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    off thread topic, I know, but still: wait, what? I haven't done the research to look into the claim, but the idea that the male life expectancy in New York State has gone up that much -- that's about 21% -- in a period of just 20 years -- that seems preposterous to me. It's a huge jump in life expectancy in a very, very short number of years.
    Life expectancy and longevity are not really the same thing. All this report is saying is that they expect fewer males born in 2000 to die young than males born in 1988.

    In other words, improvements in child mortality, decreased murder rate, decreased suicide rates, better access to health care... all these things increase life expectancy of a cohort. This does not mean that the effective upper limit on age has increased. I bet the life expectancy of 65 year olds from the same cohorts won't be dramatically different.

  17. #97

    Political Map of the US

    Here's a neat "political map" of the USA, where the states are sized based on their electoral vote count:

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...ally-speaking/

  18. #98
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Life expectancy and longevity are not really the same thing. All this report is saying is that they expect fewer males born in 2000 to die young than males born in 1988.

    In other words, improvements in child mortality, decreased murder rate, decreased suicide rates, better access to health care... all these things increase life expectancy of a cohort. This does not mean that the effective upper limit on age has increased. I bet the life expectancy of 65 year olds from the same cohorts won't be dramatically different.
    The most relevant life expectancy calculation for evaluating the likelihood of an older person to perform a stressful, strenuous job for the next 4-8 years isn't life expectancy figures at birth, but rather ongoing life expectancy at the person's age. So, while life expectancy of the American male at birth may be 75+/- years, the life expectancy of a relatively fit, active, and healthy 70 year old American male is certainly more than 5 years. That was clearly the case for Reagan, McCain, Dole, and (substituting female for male) will likely be the case for HRC in 2016, should she choose to run.

    Back to politics, age has been a subject of discussion for older presidential candidates, but we really haven't had a recent (let's say post WWII) presidential candidate yet who's individual life expectancy was a real issue. As a VP candidate, Chaney's cardiac issues probably made his life expectancy in office a bigger issue than Reagan's ever was, despite Chaney being significantly younger when he and Bush were running in 2002 than Reagan was in 1980.

    As for HRC, hopefully age won't be an issue if she does run in 2016. I doubt, medically, it would be a legitimate one.

    Dave "I said I'd avoid this topic and I obviously lied" Kay
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Oops. I typed 2002 for Chaney, and obviously meant 2000.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Eisenhower was in pretty iffy condition during his second term. Cardiovascular, IIRC.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Whos gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

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