View Poll Results: Predict the result of the Presidential Election

Voters
74. You may not vote on this poll
  • Obama landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    2 2.70%
  • Obama comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    17 22.97%
  • Obama close win (279-290 EVs)

    27 36.49%
  • Obama barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    6 8.11%
  • Exact tie 269-269

    0 0%
  • Romney barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney close win (279-290 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    1 1.35%
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  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommac View Post
    Your response proves my point that this thread is heavily partisan. You dismiss Biden's gaffes as "meaningless" and "hardly newsworthy." Is the sitting vice president of the US that inconsequential? I also don't think your referral of Romney's "shackle" comment is relevant or comparable to Biden's "chain" comment which is certainly racial in nature. My $.02.
    Tommac, there is nothing that stops you or others from having a civil discussion about Biden's statement or his other mistakes over the years on the campaign trail. Heck, we could fill pages of posts with his mistakes! There have been folks out there calling on Obama to pick someone different for VP in recent days, though I think the odds of that are extremely slim.

    Being outraged that others are not discussing it or that someone else dismisses it makes no sense to me. Bring it up, make a point or two about what you think it means, and I am sure you will get some thoughtful responses. But to label this thread as partisan because no one has brought it up makes no sense to me. If one of us wanted to talk about it, we would. And there is nothing stopping you or others from talking about it.

    -Jason "I, for one, wish the conservative leaning posters would post here more -- I would love to hear their take on how Romney is doing so far, the choice of Ryan, the tax non-disclosure, and other stuff the liberals have discussed ad nauseum" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Tommac, there is nothing that stops you or others from having a civil discussion about Biden's statement or his other mistakes over the years on the campaign trail. Heck, we could fill pages of posts with his mistakes! There have been folks out there calling on Obama to pick someone different for VP in recent days, though I think the odds of that are extremely slim.

    Being outraged that others are not discussing it or that someone else dismisses it makes no sense to me. Bring it up, make a point or two about what you think it means, and I am sure you will get some thoughtful responses. But to label this thread as partisan because no one has brought it up makes no sense to me. If one of us wanted to talk about it, we would. And there is nothing stopping you or others from talking about it.

    -Jason "I, for one, wish the conservative leaning posters would post here more -- I would love to hear their take on how Romney is doing so far, the choice of Ryan, the tax non-disclosure, and other stuff the liberals have discussed ad nauseum" Evans
    Well, I'm not a conservative but rather an independent with a strange brew of views on particular issues. And I applaud the choice of Ryan. In my mind, the main thing this election cycle (and the next 4+ year) needs is seriousness of purpose, particularly on fiscal matters. And Ryan is as serious as a crutch. I disagree with him on plenty of issues, but Ryan should help Romney to better frame this election around around economic issues and the proper size/role of government, as well as the starkness in differences in the approaches of the respective tickets. I think his voting record is also a lot more moderate, or at least compromising, than the stern ideologue characterizations would have us believe, and that he is quite personable and engaging on the stump.

    That said, Ryan is undoubtedly a bit of tough medicine, and it remains to be seen whether the public is willing to take it just yet. I suspect that this election will be very, very close, and will largely hinge on how the economy performs over the next few months (quite a revelation, I know). To put it another way, keeping the electorate focused on the economy and proper size/role of government is Romney's best chance of winning, and Ryan is the VP candidate who best helps him make that case. Whether it is enough remains to be seen. And this whole Akin controversy is exactly what Romney, and the GOP in general, don't need right now.

  3. #223

    Those pro-Akin ads worked for McCaskill

    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Thanks for the shout-out. I have been not on the Missouri ground for the last four days (NC ground, actually), and I'm gonna let Rasputin (or Kexman, or anyone else) talk first about what might actually happen. Rasputin strikes me as an StL P-D subscriber, as well as a stand-up dude. I'm more of a splattered traveler these days.
    .
    I'm also a Stl P-D subscriber and it arrives each morning as well. I don't really have any inside info that is not in the papers. I work at a university so my work place environment is somewhere to the left of liberal, but everyone was abuzz this morning My general view is that Akin could have stayed quiet for 3 months and won this race against McCaskill. McCaskill wanted Akin of the 3 challengers since he was the most conservative and the hope was that he would be too far right for independents and moderates. This comment was probably more than they could have ever hoped for.
    My guess is that the state and National GOP put tremendous pressure on Akin to get out of the race by tomorrow. First, Brunner (more business conservative) would likely beat McCaskill and now it is uncertain if Akin can. Two, they would like this story to end since I'm sure they would rather Romney and Ryan be on other talking points. I'm sure the democrats will try to tie Ryan and Akin together on this issue which would certainly disrupt the economy message they are focused on. Bad day for the GOP at all levels...politically speaking it will interesting how long this story lasts locally and nationally.

  4. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by kexman View Post
    Bad day for the GOP at all levels...politically speaking it will interesting how long this story lasts locally and nationally.
    My wife, who is utterly disinterested in politics and pays no attention to anything, happened to hear about the Aiken story on the radio this morning. Now she will not stop talking about it. She is totally engaged and enraged.

    This is a really bad news cycle for the GOP.

    -Jason "phone ringing with her calling me to talk about it more... wow, she hasn't been this interested in politics in ages!" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  5. #225
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    Conflicting reports on whether Todd Akin is staying in the race. By many accounts, the decision would have to be made by close of business tomorrow, otherwise his name would remain on the ballot.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/rep...ng-to-withdraw
    2003-2004 HLM

    Duke | Mirecourt | Detroit| The U | USA

  6. #226
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    I think his voting record is also a lot more moderate, or at least compromising, than the stern ideologue characterizations would have us believe, and that he is quite personable and engaging on the stump.
    Is that your impression of his voting record, or have you seen some attempt to quantify that he's moderate? This is not snark, but a real question.

    Voteview.org ranks his voting record among the most conservative in congress: http://voteview.org/HOUSE_SORT112.HTM

    Disclaimer: all I know of voteview.org is that Nate Silver referenced in his column about the Ryan pick.
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...hoice-of-ryan/

    My impression of his voting record is one that's decidedly conservative. For example, he is against abortion in all cases and has sponsored bills to that effect. Without debating the merit of the position, I do not think this is a moderate position in a country where a majority feel abortion should be legal in some circumstances.

  7. #227
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post

    ....Ryan should help Romney to better frame this election around around economic issues and the proper size/role of government....

    To put it another way, keeping the electorate focused on the economy and proper size/role of government is Romney's best chance of winning, and Ryan is the VP candidate who best helps him make that case.
    That was my thinking at first, but then they immediately ran to Medicare right out of the gate. It's not really an economic issue (at least, not in the jobs/GDP sense). I guess it could be framed as a size/role of government issue, but neither side is really debating it in those terms -- rather, they're debating it in terms of who would cut it, who would "save" it, etc. Nobody's questioning (at least, not openly) whether the program itself represents a proper function of government or exercise of government power. (Again, that's what they're saying -- what their proposals would actually do to Medicare may well be a different story.)

    I guess they figured that putting Ryan on the ticket would make the Medicare debate inevitable, so better to jump on it now and at least try to control its framing and direction, rather than wait for it to happen on someone else's terms.

  8. #228
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    The heat is on Akin to bow out, and do it soon. As in, now. Sen. John Cornyn, chair of the RSCC, as well as Karl Rove's Super PAC, have abandoned ship, and state officials are talking openly about "the path forward," apparently without Akin.

    Before any of that was public, however, Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, chastised Massachussetts Sen. Scott Brown, who was the first high profile Republican to call for Akin to drop out.
    In affirming the FRC's support for Akin, Perkins' press release included this comment on Brown: “He should be careful because based on some of his statements there may be call for him to get out of his race. . . He has been off the reservation on a number of Republican issues, conservative issues I should say. His support among conservatives is very shallow.”

    So the plot thickens.

    Extremely public, intra-party fighting on this issue is SO not what Mitt Romney needs to be happening right now.

  9. #229
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post

    Before any of that was public, however, Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, chastised Massachussetts Sen. Scott Brown, who was the first high profile Republican to call for Akin to drop out.
    In affirming the FRC's support for Akin, Perkins' press release included this comment on Brown: “He should be careful because based on some of his statements there may be call for him to get out of his race. . . He has been off the reservation on a number of Republican issues, conservative issues I should say. His support among conservatives is very shallow.”
    Scott Brown isn't going anywhere. Tony Perkins can say whatever he wants, but nobody in the party is going to penalize Brown for saying that Akin should drop out, especially now that so many other Republicans (including their Presidential candidate and much of their Congressional leadership) are fleeing from Akin en masse like he's radioactive (which, politically, he now is). Plus, it wouldn't surprise me if Brown gets a little more leeway than other Republicans because he represents a more liberal and traditionally Democratic state, he's in a very tight race, and the party really needs to hang on to his seat if they hope to take over the Senate majority.

  10. #230
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    So I just got a chance to listen to the audio of Akin's statement from earlier today. He didn't really say that his earlier comments were "ill-conceived," did he? He didn't really use that phrase to try to defuse this thing, did he? Tell me he didn't.

    In any event, with Mitch McConnell and even Romney now advising him to "re-consider" his decision to stay in the race, it is not surprising that there are reports that Akin's advisers are preparing for a withdrawal announcement on Tuesday.

    Gulp.

  11. #231

    akin

    Not surprisingly, Claire McCaskill warns that attempts to force Akin out of the race will backfire:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1810351.html

    Apparently, her argument is that the Republican primary voters of Missouri selected him ... who are the party bosses to override their judgment? (Not saying I agree ... just that this is her argument)

    I've read several political blogs that suggest the reports that Akin is preparing to pull out are actually ploys by insiders to dry up his money and convince him to withdraw. Not saying he won't withdraw, but I really question the suggestion that he's already "preparing" to withdraw -- he was just on with Sean Hannity insisting adamantly that he's not going to pull out. No hedging ... no "reassessing my position" ... just pure defiance).

    We'll see.

  12. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by rasputin View Post
    Yes Throaty, I am a Post-Dispatch subscriber, the dinosaur kind who has an actual newspaper in his driveway every morning.
    Praise be. Someone's gotta pay Sarah Bryan Miller.

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  13. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post

    -Jason "I, for one, wish the conservative leaning posters would post here more -- I would love to hear their take on how Romney is doing so far, the choice of Ryan, the tax non-disclosure, and other stuff the liberals have discussed ad nauseum" Evans
    I've been avoiding the thread because I find myself too passionate and would be VERY prone to reactionary posts that would inappropriate for the tone of the thread that Jason's trying to achieve. However, in answering Jason's questions...

    1) How's Romney doing? Not well. He's been unable to make up any significant ground in the swing states, and he's going to lose if he doesn't start getting a significant lead in most of those pretty soon. All the huffing and puffing and huffposting won't make one iota of difference unless he can turn all those slight-Obama-lean states into red states, and soon.

    Why is that? I think he's utterly failed to take the offensive in this election. By that, I don't mean he needs to do heavy negative campaigning. I mean, he needs to frame the discussion of this election, and he's been totally unable to do so. He needs this election to be focused on a lingering bad economy, the perceived failure of the Stimulus, the growth of the debt, and Obama's foreign policy failures (mainly Afghanistan and Iran). (btw, I don't mean to imply that the economy is Obama's fault, the Stimulus was a failure, the debt is Obama's fault, or that Obama's foreign policy has been a disaster...but Romney has an avenue on all those issues to point out that Obama hasn't been particularly successful either). Instead, the election has been about gay marriage, Chick-fil-A, Romney's taxes, the consumption and transportation of dogs, Bain Capital, outsourcing, steelworkers dead wives, Akin, etc, etc, etc. Basically, if you're an incumbent without any major successes (except for some nice work by Seal Team 6) to run on, you're sitting on a crappy economy, Europe is trying to come apart, Iran and Isreal are getting ready to throw down, and the election is about one distraction after another, you're winning.

    2) The Tax Non-Disclosure question - answered above. Romney allowed what's probably a non-issue to become a major campaign issue, distracting from what ought to be his core measure. Major failure. He should have disclosed his taxes during the Republican primary (which he was going to win no matter what), dealt with optics or itemized used underwear or whatever back then, and let it turn into a dead issue by June.

    3) Ryan - best move of the campaign so far by Romney. That immediately energized the Republican base, first and foremost, which is important because the only way Romney wins is to get the base to the voting booth in big, big numbers in the swing states. More importantly, Ryan is known for one thing and one thing only on the national stage - aggressive deficit reduction proposals and shrinking the rate of budget growth. One thing that most Americans agree on is that the debt is too big, and the rate of growth of the debt is concerning. Ryan is one of the few guys in Washington who appears to be willing to have a serious conversation about that, and make some unpopular suggestions about how to tackle the problem. He comes at it from a budget control point of view, so his proposals are going to be unpopular with many. But at least he's willing to step up and address the problem, and I think that many people are mostly sick of seeing Washington avoiding tough decisions, and kicking the can down the road while grandstanding, squabbling, and engaging in that ill-defined but despised practice of "business as usual". There seems to be a respect for Ryan, even among people who disagree with the specifics of his proposals. Mostly, Ryan almost automatically brings economy and debt into the discussion, which, getting back to point 1, is what Romney desperately needs.

    Romney will need to deal with the downside of Ryan (the fact that he's actually taken some stands in his career, and therefore has a record to go after), but Ryan's upside seriously outweighs his downside. All of us fiscal conservative types are really looking forward to the Ryan-Biden debate. It won't change the election, but it'll be fun viewing. And Ryan will probably come up with something better than "There you go again, Joe."
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  14. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    I've been avoiding the thread because I find myself too passionate and would be VERY prone to reactionary posts that would inappropriate for the tone of the thread that Jason's trying to achieve. However, in answering Jason's questions...

    1) How's Romney doing? Not well. He's been unable to make up any significant ground in the swing states, and he's going to lose if he doesn't start getting a significant lead in most of those pretty soon. All the huffing and puffing and huffposting won't make one iota of difference unless he can turn all those slight-Obama-lean states into red states, and soon.

    Why is that? I think he's utterly failed to take the offensive in this election. By that, I don't mean he needs to do heavy negative campaigning. I mean, he needs to frame the discussion of this election, and he's been totally unable to do so. He needs this election to be focused on a lingering bad economy, the perceived failure of the Stimulus, the growth of the debt, and Obama's foreign policy failures (mainly Afghanistan and Iran). (btw, I don't mean to imply that the economy is Obama's fault, the Stimulus was a failure, the debt is Obama's fault, or that Obama's foreign policy has been a disaster...but Romney has an avenue on all those issues to point out that Obama hasn't been particularly successful either). Instead, the election has been about gay marriage, Chick-fil-A, Romney's taxes, the consumption and transportation of dogs, Bain Capital, outsourcing, steelworkers dead wives, Akin, etc, etc, etc. Basically, if you're an incumbent without any major successes (except for some nice work by Seal Team 6) to run on, you're sitting on a crappy economy, Europe is trying to come apart, Iran and Isreal are getting ready to throw down, and the election is about one distraction after another, you're winning.

    2) The Tax Non-Disclosure question - answered above. Romney allowed what's probably a non-issue to become a major campaign issue, distracting from what ought to be his core measure. Major failure. He should have disclosed his taxes during the Republican primary (which he was going to win no matter what), dealt with optics or itemized used underwear or whatever back then, and let it turn into a dead issue by June.

    3) Ryan - best move of the campaign so far by Romney. That immediately energized the Republican base, first and foremost, which is important because the only way Romney wins is to get the base to the voting booth in big, big numbers in the swing states. More importantly, Ryan is known for one thing and one thing only on the national stage - aggressive deficit reduction proposals and shrinking the rate of budget growth. One thing that most Americans agree on is that the debt is too big, and the rate of growth of the debt is concerning. Ryan is one of the few guys in Washington who appears to be willing to have a serious conversation about that, and make some unpopular suggestions about how to tackle the problem. He comes at it from a budget control point of view, so his proposals are going to be unpopular with many. But at least he's willing to step up and address the problem, and I think that many people are mostly sick of seeing Washington avoiding tough decisions, and kicking the can down the road while grandstanding, squabbling, and engaging in that ill-defined but despised practice of "business as usual". There seems to be a respect for Ryan, even among people who disagree with the specifics of his proposals. Mostly, Ryan almost automatically brings economy and debt into the discussion, which, getting back to point 1, is what Romney desperately needs.

    Romney will need to deal with the downside of Ryan (the fact that he's actually taken some stands in his career, and therefore has a record to go after), but Ryan's upside seriously outweighs his downside. All of us fiscal conservative types are really looking forward to the Ryan-Biden debate. It won't change the election, but it'll be fun viewing. And Ryan will probably come up with something better than "There you go again, Joe."
    This post is an outstanding example of arguing a side without crossing PPB lines IMHO. Would send pitchforks but must spread some more love, apparently.

    Excellent post, no matter your leanings.

    -- OPK
    Twerp-free since July 1, 2014.

  15. #235
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    As I've thought about the Akin situation today, I've come to believe that this has been a real missed opportunity for Mitt Romney. Sure, this story has developed very quickly, and there hasn't been a lot of time for folks to consider their options and what their reactions should be, but still. Romney is running for President and he had a big chance here.

    What do I mean? This could've been Romney's Sister Souljah moment. He needs just such a moment, and I think he needs it badly. He needs an issue to arise where he can plant his flag and by doing so, broaden his appeal to the voters he's going to need in order to win this election.

    That's what Bill Clinton did in 1992. He took a stand against the extreme elements of his own party, represented by Sister Souljah and her inflammatory comments. By doing so, Clinton demonstrated that he was not hostage to, or even in common cause with, the far left elements of the Democratic coalition.

    Here was an opportunity for Mitt Romney to say, in effect, "No. Not only is Rep. Akin ignorant of the biological facts in question. But, unlike Rep. Akin and a minority of others inside and out of the Republican party -- including my running mate -- I am against restricting the right of a woman who has been brutally raped to abort the resulting fetus. I am against re-victimizing her in that way, and I will not be signing any bills that restrict a woman's ability to make that decision in that particular situation."

    This would be smart politics on many levels. First of all, it is a simple fact that a clear majority of Americans believe that women should, at least in some circumstances, have the right to choose an abortion. And it is also a fact that even larger percentages of Americans believe that a woman who has been raped should have the ability to choose an abortion. The percentage of Americans who believe that abortion should be illegal even in cases of rape is very small indeed. Romney would be losing very, very few votes by virtue of taking the position I am suggesting.

    Secondly, Romney has got to make some moves to his left. I know everyone in the GOP is afraid of the Tea Party and the other elements of the right wing, but Romney has got to know that he cannot win this election without the support of more independents and those who consider themselves more moderate. Can't do it. The numbers just don't pencil out. The conventional wisdom seems to be that he still has to be "solidifying his base." I disagree. By continuing to cowtow to the right wing, he is sacrificing opportunities he has with the more moderate voters in key states that he absolutely needs in order to win this thing.

    This is the perfect issue on which to make a move leftward, because the vast majority of the electorate would agree with the position he'd be taking.

    Moreover, several of the swing states have blocs of socially moderate voters, including large numbers of women, who are still undecided in this race. Wouldn't the combination of fiscal conservatism, represented by Ryan, with social moderation, represented by the reasonableness of the position I'm advocating he take on abortion in cases of rape, be more likely to attract these undecided voters in the Denver suburbs or in northern Virginia, where Romney has GOT to start moving voters into his column if he wants to have a chance?

    And as has been discussed earlier in this thread, Romney needs a moment, or an issue, where he can say to the voters, "I'm taking a stand. Right here. This is who I am. Not everybody is going to love it. Even in my own party. But you know what? Those people are wrong and I'm right, and here's why." Many voters still, after all these months, don't feel that they know who this guy is or where he stands on anything. He's changed his position on a lot of issues, been very vague on where he stands on a lot of issues, and voters need to know who this person is before they pull the lever for him. I think that with this Akin controversy, he had a chance to take on the extremists in his own party who are advocating a highly unpopular position (at least with the majority of voters), start a move towards the center, and at the same time define himself for voters on a very visible and emotional issue, rather than let the Obama campaign define him, as they have on so many other issues in this campaign.

  16. #236
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    It is hard for Romney to stand up to the base, when they do not trust or embrace him to start. That is his basic problem.

    Romney needs to define himself, but not on this issue. I am sure he wants this to pass quickly. And, an aside, I think it is hard to do what you described given that Paul Ryan -- while having a better understanding of biology than Akin -- has taken a similar position in the past in terms of rape and abortion.

    Romney needs to get back to the economy, plain and simple.
    Twerp-free since July 1, 2014.

  17. #237
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    3) Ryan - best move of the campaign so far by Romney. That immediately energized the Republican base, first and foremost, which is important because the only way Romney wins is to get the base to the voting booth in big, big numbers in the swing states. More importantly, Ryan is known for one thing and one thing only on the national stage - aggressive deficit reduction proposals and shrinking the rate of budget growth. One thing that most Americans agree on is that the debt is too big, and the rate of growth of the debt is concerning. Ryan is one of the few guys in Washington who appears to be willing to have a serious conversation about that, and make some unpopular suggestions about how to tackle the problem. He comes at it from a budget control point of view, so his proposals are going to be unpopular with many. But at least he's willing to step up and address the problem, and I think that many people are mostly sick of seeing Washington avoiding tough decisions, and kicking the can down the road while grandstanding, squabbling, and engaging in that ill-defined but despised practice of "business as usual". There seems to be a respect for Ryan, even among people who disagree with the specifics of his proposals. Mostly, Ryan almost automatically brings economy and debt into the discussion, which, getting back to point 1, is what Romney desperately needs.
    As a left leaning poster, I agree. I applaud Ryan's willingness to put a plan up for discussion. I don't agree with many of the basic tenants of the plan, but he is at least willing to start the debate. Unfortunately, much like the Bowles plan and the "bipartisan deficit committee" plan, no one is willing to work on actual compromise solutions that we can live with. Instead, they are more interested in using plans and budgets like this as political punching bags.
    "There can BE only one."

  18. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    3) Ryan - best move of the campaign so far by Romney. That immediately energized the Republican base, first and foremost, which is important because the only way Romney wins is to get the base to the voting booth in big, big numbers in the swing states. More importantly, Ryan is known for one thing and one thing only on the national stage - aggressive deficit reduction proposals and shrinking the rate of budget growth. One thing that most Americans agree on is that the debt is too big, and the rate of growth of the debt is concerning. Ryan is one of the few guys in Washington who appears to be willing to have a serious conversation about that, and make some unpopular suggestions about how to tackle the problem. He comes at it from a budget control point of view, so his proposals are going to be unpopular with many.
    I think you're largely on point here, and you hint at the Democratic parry to Ryan: they will paint his "deficit hawk" reputation as a facade, because he voted for bailouts (TARP), Medicare Part D, and stimulus under Bush, and that since military spending cuts and (increased) taxes are off the table, they'll say he's just not serious about the deficit.

  19. #239
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    My wife, who is utterly disinterested in politics and pays no attention to anything, happened to hear about the Aiken story on the radio this morning. Now she will not stop talking about it. She is totally engaged and enraged.

    This is a really bad news cycle for the GOP.

    -Jason "phone ringing with her calling me to talk about it more... wow, she hasn't been this interested in politics in ages!" Evans
    I really am starting to think that GOP efforts to separate themselves from Akin will fail, and it's becuase of anecdotes like this. (My wife, who does not typically get worked up by political stories, is similarly worked up about this). While Akin's "legitimate" comment and bad biology are getting the focus now, the truth is that his position is not dramatically different that the rest of the GOP. Romney has made statements about exceptions in cases of rape, but the GOP position is much closer to Akin's than that. Indeed, Ryan has co-sponsored bills with Akin, and it is difficult to reconcile the GOP push to define life as beginning at conception, and allowing abortion in certain instances. The Akin statments highlights this difficulty.

    No amount of distancing themselves will work (I think) -- every GOP candidate in tight elections will be hammered by this issue.

    Look at Dailykos for example: they are trying to make a lot of hay with this, saying Akin's position is equal to Romney's position. That there is actually a distinction probably won't matter. "Romney, along with extreme idealogues like Akin who thinks victims should be forced to carry their rapist's child to term, wants to end a woman's right to control her own body." rinse, repeat. Depending on the market they may be more explicit and say "want to illegalize abortion". Scott Brown very quickly and emphatically denounced Akin and is pro-choice, but I still bet Elizabeth Warren will use this against him. "Scott Brown's party wants to end abortion in America, even for victims of rape".

    And a big reason this will work very effectively is because the GOP's "War on Women" has already been through enough news cycles to be accepted as fact.

  20. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Is that your impression of his voting record, or have you seen some attempt to quantify that he's moderate? This is not snark, but a real question.

    Voteview.org ranks his voting record among the most conservative in congress: http://voteview.org/HOUSE_SORT112.HTM

    Disclaimer: all I know of voteview.org is that Nate Silver referenced in his column about the Ryan pick.
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...hoice-of-ryan/

    My impression of his voting record is one that's decidedly conservative. For example, he is against abortion in all cases and has sponsored bills to that effect. Without debating the merit of the position, I do not think this is a moderate position in a country where a majority feel abortion should be legal in some circumstances.
    I don't think I ever said Ryan was "moderate" (he's clearly not and no disagreement with your points on abortion), only that he has shown some willingness on occasion to compromise. It doesn't really speak to Ryan's voting record per se, but the linked article from today's WSJ lays out his efforts to find some common ground with Democrats on budget issues:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000..._WSJ_US_News_6

    But if I may rephrase, perhaps the more salient point from an election standpoint is that Ryan has had notable success in convincing voters in his traditionally blue/purple district of the merits of his views and/or to otherwise trust in his stewardship, at least based on the margins with which he has been elected. This is no mean feat, and also part of the rationale for his selection as Romney's running mate.

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