The seemingly large split between the CBS poll (51-30 Biden) and CNN poll (48-44 Ryan) can be reconciled. I thought there might be some sort of pro-Republican "skew" in the CNN poll when I saw some of the other questions asked and was puzzled when Ryan also held an advantage in a question along the lines of "Who has better experience to serve as President?" or "Who is more qualified to serve as President?"--I forget the exact wording, but it was something that Biden probably should have been leading in.

Thankfully, CNN indirectly addressed it on their website this morning. The CNN/ORC poll was of all debate viewers, and the audience was more Republican than the electorate as a whole. That makes senses on an intuitive level; I assume that the people who watch any of the debates in the first place (and especially the VP debate) tend to skew older and whiter (and thus more Republican) than the general population. And Republicans have been riding pretty high for the past week or so due to Romney's first debate performance, and thus more likely to tune in for this one. There also seems to be a greater level of interest/intrigue for Ryan within the GOP than for Biden within the Democratic Party. All of which help explain the narrow Ryan margin over Biden in that poll, even if undecided voters felt Biden won the debate, as the CBS poll suggests he did quite handily.

It all comes down to media spin after that. I see that Fox News currently has the following headlines among its top four: "Snickerdoodle," "Biden's Demeanor During Debate Called Disrespectful," and "BIAS ALERT: Liberal Media Differs on Debate Spin." Meanwhile, HuffPo's is "BIDEN'D" in 96-point font and TPM's headline was "Democrats Get The Debate They Wanted." I think if both sides go away feeling pretty good about how it went, and undecideds lean slightly toward Biden winning, then it's a win for Democrats overall, who have been suffering from a re-emerging enthusiasm gap lately and need energy at this point more than anything else. If Obama can tap into Biden's confidence (while avoiding the Veep's sometimes-over-the-top body language), then he's going to capture the headlines and regain some momentum--even if the second presidential debate is a draw.