Originally Posted by
tommy
Couple of thoughts since the first debate has had a chance to be digested by the public, the polls, and me.
First, it seems like the consensus of the national polls is that Romney got about a four point bounce pretty quickly after the debate, but that Obama has inched back a bit, maybe taking a point or even two back, based on a little fade of the glow of the debate for Romney, the jobs report on Friday, plus Obama and his people messaging pretty strongly over the weekend. So if he was up 5-6 going into the debate -- again, nationally, he's probably up about three now. Pretty close to where this astonishingly stable race stood for many, many months, prior to the conventions and debate.
More important than the national polls are, of course, the swing state polls. One thing to realize is that even if Romney were to have retained a full, four point bump -- as opposed to a more temporary bounce, I get it -- there were enough swing states in which, pre-debate, Obama led by more than four points. So even if he lost 4 points uniformly in every state, he'd still win more than enough swing states to win the electoral college.
I don't expect the VP debate to have any impact at all, unless Ryan is exposed as some sort of greenhorn who is simply not ready to be a hearbeat away. People expect Biden to shoot off his mouth and make verbal gaffes and all of that, so I don't think there's much of anything he can do to hurt Obama, unless he goes way, way off the reservation and says/does something truly scary. I don't think either of these scenarios come to pass, and therefore don't expect any movement from this debate.
Now, the next presidential debate I do believe is going to be big. I think Obama's weak, passive performance has caused a lot of folks to wonder anew about him, his passion, his commitment, and the like. At the same time, Romney presented as credible, plausible, personable, engaged, reasonable -- all the things he needed to do.
But. If Obama can get his head in the game and present at the second debate by making strong arguments, pointed arguments, speaking crisply and assuredly, giving as good as he gets, and appearing to be energized, engaged, and wanting the job for the next four years, he will repair a fair amount of the damage. I don't think he needs to trounce Romney in debate #2 the way Romney trounced him in debate #1. If he fights him to a perceived draw, I think a lot of folks who had been inclined to re-hire him, but have taken pause after that sorry performance last week, will say to themselves, "OK. That's the guy I thought I knew. He was bad last week, but look. He cares. He's back on his game. He's not lying to me. I feel like I can trust him and he cares about people like me." It may not even matter much how Romney presents. If Obama can come up with the type of performance I describe, I think he will inch back up another couple of points, and end up back where he was before debate #1, or maybe a point or so shy of that, nationally. And if he does that, he will be close to cinching the election. Why? Because in this scenario I don't think debate #3 will matter much, as almost all voters will feel like they got the information they needed before then, and it'll be too late to make up a 4-5 point margin. I guess I just don't think there are that many voters out there who were either undecided or who leaned Obama, who watched that debate and said to themselves, "OK, that's it. I don't need to see anything else. It's done. I'm going Romney."
Now if Obama does not raise his game significantly in debate #2, the doubts about him will of course deepen -- especially since this is town hall, and includes foreign policy -- and he'll be in real trouble of blowing this thing. All bets would, at that point, be off.