View Poll Results: Predict the result of the Presidential Election

Voters
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  • Obama landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    2 2.70%
  • Obama comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    17 22.97%
  • Obama close win (279-290 EVs)

    27 36.49%
  • Obama barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    6 8.11%
  • Exact tie 269-269

    0 0%
  • Romney barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney close win (279-290 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney comfortable win (290-310 EVs)

    7 9.46%
  • Romney landslide (310 + electoral votes)

    1 1.35%
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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    St. Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I have trouble believing Missouri is a tossup. I can't envision any scenario in which Obama wins here. Unless a couple hundred thousand old White people outstate died and no one told me.
    Throaty is right, at least as things stand now. Anything can happen between now and November, but I think the only way Obama wins Missouri is if he wins the election in a massive landslide. Missouri is not in play in any real sense.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    The Romney campaign appears to be going after what, I suspect, are what most feel are Obama's greatest strengths:

    1) Foreign policy - bin Laden killed, war in Iraq ended, war in Afghanistan dying down, etc.
    2) Auto bailout - The two of the Big Three revving along once again, the trickle down effect being felt most positively in Ohio, M*chigan, etc.
    3) Likability - Even among some that do not approve of Obama's performance as president, many like him personally
    4) Women's issues

    The volleys on these four fronts appear to be:

    1) Obama's taking all the credit for work that was largely done under the Bush Administration
    2) Romney said today that President Obama took Romney's advice on forcing GM and Chrysler through bankruptcy proceedings, and therefore that Romney is taking much credit for the resurgence of the automakers
    3) Going after Obama as arrogant, selfish, etc., with the bin Laden advertisement leading the way
    4) The Romney campaign's rather loud response to the opening created when a Democratic strategist described Ann Romney negatively for providing Gov. Romney with counsel on the plight of Americans in this economy despite not having worked a day in her life

    ~~

    Surely, the Obama campaign will go after Romney's perceived strengths, as well.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Surely, the Obama campaign will go after Romney's perceived strengths, as well.
    It's going to be tough to make it through six months without sniping.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Dillon, Colorado
    I'm not sure the Presidential election will be as significant as the Congressional elections. It's not inconceivable that both houses could flip, so that we end up with a R Senate and a D House.
    Between me and every ideal I always find Scheisskopfs, Peckems, Korns and Cathcarts. And that sort of changes the ideal. -- Joseph Heller

  5. #25

    missouri

    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I have trouble believing Missouri is a tossup. I can't envision any scenario in which Obama wins here. Unless a couple hundred thousand old White people outstate died and no one told me.
    I don't understand the certainty. In 2008, Obama lost Missouri by 3,632 votes out of almost 3 million cast -- one tenth of one percent (McCain 1,445,812 to 1,442,180). The latest poll for Missouri was taken by Rassmussen (which according to Nate Silver skews strongly republican) in mid-April and it showed Romney with a 3 point lead.

    What makes you have such a hard time seeing Missouri in play?

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Dillon, Colorado
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    What makes you have such a hard time seeing Missouri in play?
    MO is pretty clearly a net R state, and has been for the past several elections. The better way to look at it is that MO was a virtual tie in a year Obama won by 7.3 points nationally. If Romney invests any serious effort there it means he's in deep doo-doo.

    NC is the same, although trending a little more D.
    Between me and every ideal I always find Scheisskopfs, Peckems, Korns and Cathcarts. And that sort of changes the ideal. -- Joseph Heller

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    NC is the same, although trending a little more D.
    Not tonight.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    It's going to be tough to make it through six months without sniping.
    I apologize if my comment came across as a snipe or read to you as snipe-inducing.

    My only point was that each candidate would surely engage in critiques--thoughtful and otherwise--of another's perceived strengths.

    I think the Romney Campaign has begun this in earnest. I'm not sure the Obama camp has targeted Romney's strengths just yet.

    Romney's strengths:

    1) Romney's economic credibility
    2) ___
    3) ___

    I leave these blank not because Romney has only one strength, but only because I'm not aware of what other strengths Romney has identified at this point. Quite frankly, the other strength he'll surely trumpet is that he is not President Obama. That is not meant as a snipe against the president but as an acknowledgment that many in Mr. Romney's party who might be reluctant supporters will ultimately be supporters because when faced with Obama or Romney, they'll choose the latter just because.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    I apologize if my comment came across as a snipe or read to you as snipe-inducing.

    My only point was that each candidate would surely engage in critiques--thoughtful and otherwise--of another's perceived strengths.

    I think the Romney Campaign has begun this in earnest. I'm not sure the Obama camp has targeted Romney's strengths just yet.

    Romney's strengths:

    1) Romney's economic credibility
    2) ___
    3) ___

    I leave these blank not because Romney has only one strength, but only because I'm not aware of what other strengths Romney has identified at this point. Quite frankly, the other strength he'll surely trumpet is that he is not President Obama. That is not meant as a snipe against the president but as an acknowledgment that many in Mr. Romney's party who might be reluctant supporters will ultimately be supporters because when faced with Obama or Romney, they'll choose the latter just because.
    I think Duvall was winking while not saying "Romney does not have any strengths." He was not implying that you had engaged in any partisan sniping.

    But I could be wrong.

    -Jason
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    I apologize if my comment came across as a snipe or read to you as snipe-inducing.
    It didn't. I was joking.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    Not tonight.
    I may have misheard this stat, but my understanding is that blacks voted 2-1 in favor of the amendment. I think it's safe to say the results in November won't correlate.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    I apologize if my comment came across as a snipe or read to you as snipe-inducing.

    My only point was that each candidate would surely engage in critiques--thoughtful and otherwise--of another's perceived strengths.

    I think the Romney Campaign has begun this in earnest. I'm not sure the Obama camp has targeted Romney's strengths just yet.

    Romney's strengths:

    1) Romney's economic credibility
    2) ___
    3) ___

    I leave these blank not because Romney has only one strength, but only because I'm not aware of what other strengths Romney has identified at this point. Quite frankly, the other strength he'll surely trumpet is that he is not President Obama. That is not meant as a snipe against the president but as an acknowledgment that many in Mr. Romney's party who might be reluctant supporters will ultimately be supporters because when faced with Obama or Romney, they'll choose the latter just because.
    I believe Romney is generally considered to have been a successful governor - as a Republican in a largely Democratic state, no mean feat - and to be almost pathologically sober and level headed. The former is usually viewed as a good pedigree for aspiring Presidents, while the latter may help his appeal to independents, however much of an albatross it may have been in the GOP primary (and in firing up "the party base").

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    I believe Romney is generally considered to have been a successful governor - as a Republican in a largely Democratic state, no mean feat - and to be almost pathologically sober and level headed. The former is usually viewed as a good pedigree for aspiring Presidents, while the latter may help his appeal to independents, however much of an albatross it may have been in the GOP primary (and in firing up "the party base").
    Politically, though, these strengths are of very limited value, IMHO, to Romney. The former can't even be alluded to by him without leading to a discussion of his health care plan in Massachusetts and how it helped supply the framework for the ACA. That both kills him with his own base and makes it hard for him to distinguish himself on policy from the President with independents. Obama can even turn it into offense, and a discussion of how it's one thing to pass legislation at the state level, but the ACA is similar to policy even Nixon wanted to get done, and no one accomplished it at the federal level until now. The latter doesn't really distinguish him much from the current occupant, who has little difficulty projecting himself as serious and even-keeled, but with more of a common touch. I don't see a significant majority of independents who would vote on the basis of disposition choosing Romney here.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    For those of you guys interested in the polling, the numbers, and the strategies each campaign may be considering or want to consider based on the numbers, I found an excellent new site called electionate.com that you'll probably enjoy. It is very smart and well-written, and has some different takes and different ways of analyzing the polling data, and makes for some very interesting reading.

    There are a number of different pieces up on the site right now that are of interest, at least to me. One is entitled "It's Not the Electoral College - Obama Just Leads." There the author makes a number of points. First is that the national polling is dominated by Rasmussen and Gallop (primarily because of the frequency with which they poll) but those polls have been demonstrated to skew towards the GOP in recent elections. If one were to remove those two polls, the weight of the rest of the polling is that Obama has a clear lead when the race is analyzed state-by-state. Rasmussen and Gallop may ultimately turn out to be right, but their indications that the national race is very close right now do not seem to be supported by the data of many other reputable pollsters.

    Another interesting article has to do with the state of North Carolina, and another with Arizona, where the relative numbers of white and Hispanic voters, and the turnout required for Hispanic voters, are discussed. In North Carolina, the point is made that Obama's resilience, as compared to some other close 2008 states that he has no chance in, like Missouri, is rooted in the compositoin of his coalition. He relied heavily in 2008 in North Carolina on black voters and college educated voters - in contrast to states like Missouri and Indiana. Those groups have not gone anywhere. What it means is that Obama's relative weakness with non-college white voters, which is going to hurt him many places (like Ohio), is less of a factor in North Carolina (and Virginia), which will allow him to compete there again in 2012. Continued influxes of northerners to the state, plus the youth vote, are also likely to help Obama in North Carolina in 2012.

    There is another piece that is quite interesting about the Latino vote. There are a lot of folks talking about that issue, and the focus on it will only increase if Rubio is the VP nominee. I also found the author's take on the youth vote, its tie in to the non-white vote, and the impact of our nation's changing demographics on the youth vote and what it means for the parties and the candidates to be thought-provoking.

    Overall, one of the themes seems to be that there are a lot of moving demographic pieces in this election, and the ways in which certain slices of voters respond to these campaigns in different states. and even in different parts of states, is going to be critical. The electoral map is not obviously just going to come down to Ohio and Florida and perhaps Virginia. There's a lot more to it than that. Obama's ability to make up with other groups his certain losses with non-college educated white voters is going to be crucial. But which non-college whites? His performance with this group was quite different in the south than it was in the upper midwest in 2008. And what if Romney also does not connect with working class whites -- as so far he has not done in a state like Ohio, where Obama currently leads? If he starts to make inroads with those voters across a number of states, the whole thing brightens considerably for Romney. What will non-white turnout look like in certain critical states? The electoral map changes depending on the answers to these and other questions.

    Great reading if you enjoy this sort of thing.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
    Politically, though, these strengths are of very limited value, IMHO, to Romney. The former can't even be alluded to by him without leading to a discussion of his health care plan in Massachusetts and how it helped supply the framework for the ACA. That both kills him with his own base and makes it hard for him to distinguish himself on policy from the President with independents. Obama can even turn it into offense, and a discussion of how it's one thing to pass legislation at the state level, but the ACA is similar to policy even Nixon wanted to get done, and no one accomplished it at the federal level until now. The latter doesn't really distinguish him much from the current occupant, who has little difficulty projecting himself as serious and even-keeled, but with more of a common touch. I don't see a significant majority of independents who would vote on the basis of disposition choosing Romney here.
    While the ACA precedent is certaintly an issue, there are multiple ways for Romney to spin it in a general election, including framing it as the purview of states rather than the Federal Government. Morever, the combination of experience in business and as a governor presents a stark contrast to Obama, whose relatively light resume was troubling even to many supporters in 2008, and who has AT TIMES seemed to be clearly in over his head as President. Note that I say this as an independent who voted for him in 2008.

    As for disposition, I would say it is very important to independents who consider themselves economically conservative, but not militantly so, and socially moderate/liberal. In other words, folks who might lean Republican, especially in an election where economic issues may be paramount, but could never stomach voting for the likes of Santorum, Gingrich, Perry or Sarah Palin (even as VP), and are comforted by a sense of prudent stewardship. This is a big segment of independent voters, especially in the battleground states that will likely decide the election (OH, PA, VA, FL), and the major reason why the GOP establishment united behind Romney so early in the campaign.

    FWIW, I think there are also some legitimate doubts now around how level-headed and even keeled Obama really is. He is certainly serious, but has also displayed a notably authoritarian streak on several occasions, including berating the Supreme Court on its ACA hearings (not to mention the passage of the bill in the first place).

    I am not saying any of this to blanketly defend Romney. But I think your comments above are a bit naive in failing to recognize what many will see as legitimate strengths, especially independent voters.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    One of Obama's strengths relative to Romney is Romney's reputation as a flip-flopper. Did Obama concede any of that by coming out in support of gay marriage today, or is that particular spin on the issue not important?

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    I may have misheard this stat, but my understanding is that blacks voted 2-1 in favor of the amendment. I think it's safe to say the results in November won't correlate.
    Funny you should say this. We were sitting around at work last night discussing the outcome of the vote. One of my co-workers who is black and who supported the amendment voted for the President in 2008. Of course I felt obligated to ask him the big, “What if” question. I could see that my question troubled him, but after a few seconds he responded quite adamantly that he wouldn’t vote for Obama in November.
    Now I realize that was last night and a lot can change between now and November, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss how strongly the black community, especially the church going members of that community feel about this issue.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    Funny you should say this. We were sitting around at work last night discussing the outcome of the vote. One of my co-workers who is black and who supported the amendment voted for the President in 2008. Of course I felt obligated to ask him the big, “What if” question. I could see that my question troubled him, but after a few seconds he responded quite adamantly that he wouldn’t vote for Obama in November.
    Now I realize that was last night and a lot can change between now and November, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss how strongly the black community, especially the church going members of that community feel about this issue.
    I hear what you're saying, but I will eat my hat if blacks in NC vote 2-1 in favor of Romney over Obama.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    I hear what you're saying, but I will eat my hat if blacks in NC vote 2-1 in favor of Romney over Obama.
    Maybe they just won't vote. A lot of GOP supporters didn't turnout for McCain the last time around, saying he wasn't enough to the right for the taste, the old cutting off one's nose to spite their face action.

    But I do get where you're coming from. Come November it could very well come down to who they feel is the lesser of two evils.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    While the ACA precedent is certaintly an issue, there are multiple ways for Romney to spin it in a general election, including framing it as the purview of states rather than the Federal Government.
    Well, he has been trying this when it does come up. I don't frankly get the impression it's been working with the base right, and it's likely to be too nuanced to play with low info. undecideds, who couldn't care less about federalism theories and don't hear the dogwhistle there. It's much easier for Democrats to just paint him as running away from his own record, and as part of the overall picture they're trying to project of him as having few discernible principles.

    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    As for disposition, I would say it is very important to independents who consider themselves economically conservative, but not militantly so, and socially moderate/liberal. In other words, folks who might lean Republican, especially in an election where economic issues may be paramount, but could never stomach voting for the likes of Santorum, Gingrich, Perry or Sarah Palin (even as VP), and are comforted by a sense of prudent stewardship.
    In my experience, these are not "folks who might lean Republican" - people who are self-declared as economically conservative and socially moderate are overwhelmingly just Republicans, whether they self-label as such or not. I don't discount that there are a lot of these people who would have been terrified enough of Santorum that they might have sat out the general or even voted for Obama (indeed, I made that very point in a number of posts on the GOP primary thread), although I think that says more about GOP drift than the actual independence of these so-called independents, and to a large degree it will be negated by dampening Tea Party turnout. Romney's apparent sanity and calm provide cover for folks who prefer the Republican brand, yes. But if you're suggesting it will move the needle for actual independents and undecideds who didn't vote for McCain, however, I'd suggest I'm not the one being naive. I guess it's possible a significant portion of the undecided public's impression of the President is that he's now some sort of bully because he spoke too loudly in support of his signature domestic policy, and perhaps that impression will override any of the personal negatives the Democrats attempt to pile on Romney's persona over the next 6 months, but I'll need to see some evidence of a lot of people (who aren't Republicans) actually believing that, because it feels a little like false consensus effect to me. My impression has been that the general consensus is currently quite the opposite, based primarily on periodic polling of personal approval ratings, which show a broad disparity in favor of the President to date.

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