Obama landslide (310 + electoral votes)
Obama comfortable win (290-310 EVs)
Obama close win (279-290 EVs)
Obama barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)
Exact tie 269-269
Romney barely wins (270 + 278 EVs)
Romney close win (279-290 EVs)
Romney comfortable win (290-310 EVs)
Romney landslide (310 + electoral votes)
The Romney campaign appears to be going after what, I suspect, are what most feel are Obama's greatest strengths:
1) Foreign policy - bin Laden killed, war in Iraq ended, war in Afghanistan dying down, etc.
2) Auto bailout - The two of the Big Three revving along once again, the trickle down effect being felt most positively in Ohio, M*chigan, etc.
3) Likability - Even among some that do not approve of Obama's performance as president, many like him personally
4) Women's issues
The volleys on these four fronts appear to be:
1) Obama's taking all the credit for work that was largely done under the Bush Administration
2) Romney said today that President Obama took Romney's advice on forcing GM and Chrysler through bankruptcy proceedings, and therefore that Romney is taking much credit for the resurgence of the automakers
3) Going after Obama as arrogant, selfish, etc., with the bin Laden advertisement leading the way
4) The Romney campaign's rather loud response to the opening created when a Democratic strategist described Ann Romney negatively for providing Gov. Romney with counsel on the plight of Americans in this economy despite not having worked a day in her life
Surely, the Obama campaign will go after Romney's perceived strengths, as well.
I'm not sure the Presidential election will be as significant as the Congressional elections. It's not inconceivable that both houses could flip, so that we end up with a R Senate and a D House.
You must spread some comments around before flaming the Moderators again.
What makes you have such a hard time seeing Missouri in play?
NC is the same, although trending a little more D.
You must spread some comments around before flaming the Moderators again.
My only point was that each candidate would surely engage in critiques--thoughtful and otherwise--of another's perceived strengths.
I think the Romney Campaign has begun this in earnest. I'm not sure the Obama camp has targeted Romney's strengths just yet.
1) Romney's economic credibility
I leave these blank not because Romney has only one strength, but only because I'm not aware of what other strengths Romney has identified at this point. Quite frankly, the other strength he'll surely trumpet is that he is not President Obama. That is not meant as a snipe against the president but as an acknowledgment that many in Mr. Romney's party who might be reluctant supporters will ultimately be supporters because when faced with Obama or Romney, they'll choose the latter just because.
Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk
For those of you guys interested in the polling, the numbers, and the strategies each campaign may be considering or want to consider based on the numbers, I found an excellent new site called electionate.com that you'll probably enjoy. It is very smart and well-written, and has some different takes and different ways of analyzing the polling data, and makes for some very interesting reading.
There are a number of different pieces up on the site right now that are of interest, at least to me. One is entitled "It's Not the Electoral College - Obama Just Leads." There the author makes a number of points. First is that the national polling is dominated by Rasmussen and Gallop (primarily because of the frequency with which they poll) but those polls have been demonstrated to skew towards the GOP in recent elections. If one were to remove those two polls, the weight of the rest of the polling is that Obama has a clear lead when the race is analyzed state-by-state. Rasmussen and Gallop may ultimately turn out to be right, but their indications that the national race is very close right now do not seem to be supported by the data of many other reputable pollsters.
Another interesting article has to do with the state of North Carolina, and another with Arizona, where the relative numbers of white and Hispanic voters, and the turnout required for Hispanic voters, are discussed. In North Carolina, the point is made that Obama's resilience, as compared to some other close 2008 states that he has no chance in, like Missouri, is rooted in the compositoin of his coalition. He relied heavily in 2008 in North Carolina on black voters and college educated voters - in contrast to states like Missouri and Indiana. Those groups have not gone anywhere. What it means is that Obama's relative weakness with non-college white voters, which is going to hurt him many places (like Ohio), is less of a factor in North Carolina (and Virginia), which will allow him to compete there again in 2012. Continued influxes of northerners to the state, plus the youth vote, are also likely to help Obama in North Carolina in 2012.
There is another piece that is quite interesting about the Latino vote. There are a lot of folks talking about that issue, and the focus on it will only increase if Rubio is the VP nominee. I also found the author's take on the youth vote, its tie in to the non-white vote, and the impact of our nation's changing demographics on the youth vote and what it means for the parties and the candidates to be thought-provoking.
Overall, one of the themes seems to be that there are a lot of moving demographic pieces in this election, and the ways in which certain slices of voters respond to these campaigns in different states. and even in different parts of states, is going to be critical. The electoral map is not obviously just going to come down to Ohio and Florida and perhaps Virginia. There's a lot more to it than that. Obama's ability to make up with other groups his certain losses with non-college educated white voters is going to be crucial. But which non-college whites? His performance with this group was quite different in the south than it was in the upper midwest in 2008. And what if Romney also does not connect with working class whites -- as so far he has not done in a state like Ohio, where Obama currently leads? If he starts to make inroads with those voters across a number of states, the whole thing brightens considerably for Romney. What will non-white turnout look like in certain critical states? The electoral map changes depending on the answers to these and other questions.
Great reading if you enjoy this sort of thing.
As for disposition, I would say it is very important to independents who consider themselves economically conservative, but not militantly so, and socially moderate/liberal. In other words, folks who might lean Republican, especially in an election where economic issues may be paramount, but could never stomach voting for the likes of Santorum, Gingrich, Perry or Sarah Palin (even as VP), and are comforted by a sense of prudent stewardship. This is a big segment of independent voters, especially in the battleground states that will likely decide the election (OH, PA, VA, FL), and the major reason why the GOP establishment united behind Romney so early in the campaign.
FWIW, I think there are also some legitimate doubts now around how level-headed and even keeled Obama really is. He is certainly serious, but has also displayed a notably authoritarian streak on several occasions, including berating the Supreme Court on its ACA hearings (not to mention the passage of the bill in the first place).
I am not saying any of this to blanketly defend Romney. But I think your comments above are a bit naive in failing to recognize what many will see as legitimate strengths, especially independent voters.
One of Obama's strengths relative to Romney is Romney's reputation as a flip-flopper. Did Obama concede any of that by coming out in support of gay marriage today, or is that particular spin on the issue not important?
Now I realize that was last night and a lot can change between now and November, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss how strongly the black community, especially the church going members of that community feel about this issue.
But I do get where you're coming from. Come November it could very well come down to who they feel is the lesser of two evils.