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  1. #1

    Idea to replace the NBA one and done rule

    It seems silly to me that a player like Shabazz should have to play a year of college ball before going pro. It would have been absurd if Kobe or LeBron had been forced to bide their time for a year. On the other hand I suppose the NBA is trying to save themselves from their own possible stupidity by using a first round pick to draft a player who is not ready. My solution for the NBA would be to allow only the lottery teams to draft a player out of HS. If a player is good enough to be a lottery pick out of HS he should not have to wait a year. On the other hand, players who seem to have a lot of raw talent and "potential" but aren't presumed ready to contribute immediately would have to sit out a year. Personally I would prefer not to make anyone wait a year but maybe this compromise would palatable to the NBA. To make it work the NCAA/NBA would have to forget about asking incoming freshmen to "declare" for the draft. Bazz could accept a scholarship to UCLA but if he's a lottery pick and wants to go they are out of luck just like Duke was with Livingston. On the other hand if he is not a lottery pick then he still has his eligibility for one year at UCLA. It's not perfect - for instance HB might still have been selected as a lottery pick and ended up a bust - but I think most of the time those "sure thing" type players would work out at least as well as after 1-year of college. I don't know if that would be acceptable to the NBA but it sure would be better for college. Calipari would likely be nervous on draft night if he continued to go after those type players but, after all, it's his choice. Players like Bazz could actually just wait until after the draft to commit in case they were not drafted.

    So what do you think?

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    It seems silly to me that a player like Shabazz should have to play a year of college ball before going pro. It would have been absurd if Kobe or LeBron had been forced to bide their time for a year. On the other hand I suppose the NBA is trying to save themselves from their own possible stupidity by using a first round pick to draft a player who is not ready. My solution for the NBA would be to allow only the lottery teams to draft a player out of HS. If a player is good enough to be a lottery pick out of HS he should not have to wait a year. On the other hand, players who seem to have a lot of raw talent and "potential" but aren't presumed ready to contribute immediately would have to sit out a year. Personally I would prefer not to make anyone wait a year but maybe this compromise would palatable to the NBA. To make it work the NCAA/NBA would have to forget about asking incoming freshmen to "declare" for the draft. Bazz could accept a scholarship to UCLA but if he's a lottery pick and wants to go they are out of luck just like Duke was with Livingston. On the other hand if he is not a lottery pick then he still has his eligibility for one year at UCLA. It's not perfect - for instance HB might still have been selected as a lottery pick and ended up a bust - but I think most of the time those "sure thing" type players would work out at least as well as after 1-year of college. I don't know if that would be acceptable to the NBA but it sure would be better for college. Calipari would likely be nervous on draft night if he continued to go after those type players but, after all, it's his choice. Players like Bazz could actually just wait until after the draft to commit in case they were not drafted.

    So what do you think?
    Won't fly with the NBA. The two main reasons that they instituted the rule were as follows:
    1. financial gain from being able to market rookies whose faces the nation is familiar with
    2. helping the GMs keep from shooting themselves in the foot by allowing for better evaluation (against better competition)

    It's also not great from the college perspective. This would cause chaos in terms of recruiting. The coaches already hate the fact that they aren't sure who they'll have next year due to the draft. Now they'll not be sure if they have a guy until late June. And it wouldn't really fix the one-and-done problem anyway, because you'd still only have a guy for the one year.

  3. #3
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    Louisville, Ky
    I thnk the association is double dipping and loving the system just they way it is - colleges develope their young talent one, two maybe four years with absolutely no risk and then when the "League" says they are ready, they draft them to the teams that need the most help to keep things competitive.

    Do you think, really, even for a minute, the NBA wants to change this?

    Grow up, sister. Life is what it is.
    Last edited by pfrduke; 04-26-2012 at 04:11 PM. Reason: language

  4. #4
    I like the idea of this thread, even if it is just a distant dream at this point. Here's a three-part plan:

    1) I agree that the NBA should let players go pro out of high school.

    2) For its part, the NCAA should let any kid who isn't drafted out of high school come to college - if, that is, they have the intention of getting an education and are willing to commit to college for 3+ years to get their degree. I think the concept that kids who declare for the draft are somehow "professionals" is just plain silly in light of the charred landscape of contemporary college basketball.

    3) If not 1) or 2), the NBDA and Europe are always available.

    To me this would capture everyone's best interests - the players, the colleges, and the fans. I guess it's really the same system as baseball has... Hmmm, I could probably have just gone with, "we should just do what baseball does". Sorry for the time sink.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    It seems silly to me that a player like Shabazz should have to play a year of college ball before going pro. It would have been absurd if Kobe or LeBron had been forced to bide their time for a year. On the other hand I suppose the NBA is trying to save themselves from their own possible stupidity by using a first round pick to draft a player who is not ready. My solution for the NBA would be to allow only the lottery teams to draft a player out of HS. If a player is good enough to be a lottery pick out of HS he should not have to wait a year. On the other hand, players who seem to have a lot of raw talent and "potential" but aren't presumed ready to contribute immediately would have to sit out a year. Personally I would prefer not to make anyone wait a year but maybe this compromise would palatable to the NBA. To make it work the NCAA/NBA would have to forget about asking incoming freshmen to "declare" for the draft. Bazz could accept a scholarship to UCLA but if he's a lottery pick and wants to go they are out of luck just like Duke was with Livingston. On the other hand if he is not a lottery pick then he still has his eligibility for one year at UCLA. It's not perfect - for instance HB might still have been selected as a lottery pick and ended up a bust - but I think most of the time those "sure thing" type players would work out at least as well as after 1-year of college. I don't know if that would be acceptable to the NBA but it sure would be better for college. Calipari would likely be nervous on draft night if he continued to go after those type players but, after all, it's his choice. Players like Bazz could actually just wait until after the draft to commit in case they were not drafted.

    So what do you think?
    NBA GM's have made a number of mistakes on HS kids in the lottery -- so it's not like any HS kid who is chosen in the lottery is assured of being KG, Kobe, or Dwight Howard. The following were chosen in the lottery and had careers that have been at best mediocre and at worst, awful:

    Martel Webster
    Robert Swift
    Sebastian Telfair
    Kwame Brown
    Eddie Curry
    DeSagana Diop
    Darius Miles
    Jonathan Bender


    (not sure if Swift and Telfair were tail end of their lotteries or top of the non-lottery. Right at the cutoff)

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Won't fly with the NBA. The two main reasons that they instituted the rule were as follows:
    1. financial gain from being able to market rookies whose faces the nation is familiar with
    2. helping the GMs keep from shooting themselves in the foot by allowing for better evaluation (against better competition)

    It's also not great from the college perspective. This would cause chaos in terms of recruiting. The coaches already hate the fact that they aren't sure who they'll have next year due to the draft. Now they'll not be sure if they have a guy until late June. And it wouldn't really fix the one-and-done problem anyway, because you'd still only have a guy for the one year.
    I agree with #1 and that may be the sticking point. #2 would be mitigated IMO by only allowing the lottery team teams to draft out of HS. I don't think lottery teams would miss on HS players that much more than after one year of college but it could happen (HB).

    From NCAA standpoint the last issue you raised would be no different than if there were no one and done rule at all - think Shawn Livingston - except it would only effect the very elite prospects who were lottery considerations.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    NBA GM's have made a number of mistakes on HS kids in the lottery -- so it's not like any HS kid who is chosen in the lottery is assured of being KG, Kobe, or Dwight Howard. The following were chosen in the lottery and had careers that have been at best mediocre and at worst, awful:

    Martel Webster
    Robert Swift
    Sebastian Telfair
    Kwame Brown
    Eddie Curry
    DeSagana Diop
    Darius Miles
    Jonathan Bender


    (not sure if Swift and Telfair were tail end of their lotteries or top of the non-lottery. Right at the cutoff)
    What if only top 5 or top 3 picks could come from HS then? have there been many misses taken that early out of HS. I actually don't know the answer but I wouldn't have thought so.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I agree with #1 and that may be the sticking point. #2 would be mitigated IMO by only allowing the lottery team teams to draft out of HS. I don't think lottery teams would miss on HS players that much more than after one year of college but it could happen (HB).
    Except that the lottery teams miss fairly frequently. Any additional bit of information helps make a more informed decision. The decisions still aren't perfect, but they're better. And they get to draft more marketable players. We're not going to see high schoolers eligible for the draft again for a long time.

    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    From NCAA standpoint the last issue you raised would be no different than if there were no one and done rule at all - think Shawn Livingston - except it would only effect the very elite prospects who were lottery considerations.
    Yes, it is no worse than what was in place before the one-and-done rule. But there IS a one-and-done rule now. My point was that what you're suggesting is actually worse than what is in place now, not better. Now, you more or less know what your team will be by May 1 and have time to scour the transfer/late recruit market as needed. With this, you'd absolutely not know until late June, at which point it is very difficult to make adjustments.

    So because the NBA won't do it and because it makes colleges worse off, it seems like a complete no-go. It's great for the players, not great for the NBA, colleges, or college bball fans.

  9. #9
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    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    It would have been absurd if Kobe or LeBron had been forced to bide their time for a year.
    Actually, Kobe wasn't really ready. His rookie year he managed 15 mpg and 7.4 ppg. He couldn't play defense. He could have used a year in college.

    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    If a player is good enough to be a lottery pick out of HS he should not have to wait a year.
    High school players drafted in the NBA lottery, 1999 to 2005:

    Jonathan Bender
    Darius Miles
    Kwame Brown
    Tyson Chandler (rookie #s: 6.1ppg, 4.8 rpg)
    Eddy Curry (rookie #s: 6.7ppg, 3.8 rpg)
    DaSagana Diop
    Amare Stoudemire
    LeBron James
    Dwight Howard
    Shaun Livingston
    Robert Swift
    Sebastian Telfair
    Martell Webster
    Andrew Bynum (rookie #s: 1.6 ppg, 1.7 rpg)

    I'd say all but a few of those guys would have helped both themselves and their future NBA clubs by waiting a year.



    EDIT: I see while I was looking this up others beat me to it. Oh well.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Actually, Kobe wasn't really ready. His rookie year he managed 15 mpg and 7.4 ppg. He couldn't play defense. He could have used a year in college.



    High school players drafted in the NBA lottery, 1999 to 2005:

    Jonathan Bender
    Darius Miles
    Kwame Brown
    Tyson Chandler (rookie #s: 6.1ppg, 4.8 rpg)
    Eddy Curry (rookie #s: 6.7ppg, 3.8 rpg)
    DaSagana Diop
    Amare Stoudemire
    LeBron James
    Dwight Howard
    Shaun Livingston
    Robert Swift
    Sebastian Telfair
    Martell Webster
    Andrew Bynum (rookie #s: 1.6 ppg, 1.7 rpg)

    I'd say all but a few of those guys would have helped both themselves and their future NBA clubs by waiting a year.



    EDIT: I see while I was looking this up others beat me to it. Oh well.
    Agree with others who say this rule doesn't help the NBA at all (and it is from the NBA clubs perspective that this rule was first initiated):
    1) less polished players in NBA earning salary at end of bench
    2) more of players described above in (1) being drafted because no GM wants to be known as the guy who passed up the next Kobe Bryant - drafting based on uncertain "potential" magnfies and more draft busts ensue

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    What if only top 5 or top 3 picks could come from HS then? have there been many misses taken that early out of HS. I actually don't know the answer but I wouldn't have thought so.
    1999 to 2005:

    TOP FIVE PICKS

    Jonathan Bender (#5)
    Darius Miles (#3)
    Kwame Brown (#1)
    Tyson Chandler (#2)
    Eddy Curry (#4)
    LeBron James (#1)
    Dwight Howard (#1)
    Shaun Livingston (#4)

    SIX TO TEN

    DaSagana Diop (#8)
    Amare Stoudemire (#9)
    Martell Webster (#6)
    Andrew Bynum (#10)

  12. #12
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    Macon, GA
    There is no rule stating players have to attend college for a year to be drafted. There is no rule resticting high school basketball players from going pro as soon as they graduate, they just can't do it in the NBA. Frankly i'm suprised more one and done prospects don't spend a year over seas then coming to the NBA. The NCAA is always going to try and do whatever is in it's best interest and the NBA will do the same for itself. Getting the two to collaborate on how to do what's best for the players is a long shot unless they both have something legitimate gain from it which i don't see happening.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ichabod Drain View Post
    There is no rule stating players have to attend college for a year to be drafted. There is no rule resticting high school basketball players from going pro as soon as they graduate, they just can't do it in the NBA. Frankly i'm suprised more one and done prospects don't spend a year over seas then coming to the NBA. The NCAA is always going to try and do whatever is in it's best interest and the NBA will do the same for itself. Getting the two to collaborate on how to do what's best for the players is a long shot unless they both have something legitimate gain from it which i don't see happening.
    It seems to me that it would be in the NCAA's best interest to allow kids who declare for the draft, get drafted (or not), but then change their mind for whatever reason, so long as it's before they sign a contract and get paid, to come back to college. Good for the kids, who can further their on and off-court educations, good for the college game to have more experienced players, and good for the coffers -- meaning TV -- as the quality of the games would improve and the players would be more identifiable, as they'd be more known to the fans. And it just kinda feels like the right thing to do. You've accepted a young man into your university and he wants to resume there and continue to be a part of your community. Welcome him back.

    Why the NCAA doesn't do this, I don't know.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    1999 to 2005:

    TOP FIVE PICKS

    Jonathan Bender (#5)
    Darius Miles (#3)
    Kwame Brown (#1)
    Tyson Chandler (#2)
    Eddy Curry (#4)
    LeBron James (#1)
    Dwight Howard (#1)
    Shaun Livingston (#4)

    SIX TO TEN

    DaSagana Diop (#8)
    Amare Stoudemire (#9)
    Martell Webster (#6)
    Andrew Bynum (#10)
    Well obviously this is the real issue for the NBA. I would be curious to compare the rate of lottery or top 5 misses on players out of HS vs. players with at least 1-yr of college. To me a miss is a player who never cracks the rotation as a starter or key reserve not someone who got hurt like Greg Oden. If the rate of misses on players out of HS is significantly higher that one and done players or players with more than one year then I agree there is no incentive for the NBA to change. The question is how much more accurate are they after one year of college on the most elite prospects.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    It seems to me that it would be in the NCAA's best interest to allow kids who declare for the draft, get drafted (or not), but then change their mind for whatever reason, so long as it's before they sign a contract and get paid, to come back to college. Good for the kids, who can further their on and off-court educations, good for the college game to have more experienced players, and good for the coffers -- meaning TV -- as the quality of the games would improve and the players would be more identifiable, as they'd be more known to the fans. And it just kinda feels like the right thing to do. You've accepted a young man into your university and he wants to resume there and continue to be a part of your community. Welcome him back.

    Why the NCAA doesn't do this, I don't know.
    I agree it would be good for the players, but the NBA might put in some rule to prevent that (I dont know how specifically), because that just messes with their system so much. Imagine if ten kids go in the second round then they decide they want to go to college for a year to try and make it to the first round. Well that's ten draftees that just left the teams that drafted them hanging. I doubt that would sit well with the NBA. And does this go for just kids coming out of high school, or can anyone test it out see how high they get drafted then decide to take it or leave it. That would be pretty ridiculous.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    Well obviously this is the real issue for the NBA. I would be curious to compare the rate of lottery or top 5 misses on players out of HS vs. players with at least 1-yr of college. To me a miss is a player who never cracks the rotation as a starter or key reserve not someone who got hurt like Greg Oden. If the rate of misses on players out of HS is significantly higher that one and done players or players with more than one year then I agree there is no incentive for the NBA to change. The question is how much more accurate are they after one year of college on the most elite prospects.
    Since the one-and-done rule was instituted (2006 to 2011), here's a list of all freshmen drafted in the lottery:

    Tyrus Thomas (#4)
    Greg Oden (#1)
    Kevin Durant (#2)
    Mike Conley (#4)
    Spencer Hawes (#10)
    Thaddeus Young (#12)
    Derrick Rose (#1)
    OJ Mayo (#3)
    Kevin Love (#5)
    Eric Gordon (#7)
    Jerryd Bayless (#11)
    Anthony Randolph (#14)
    Tyreke Evans (#4)
    DeMar DeRozan (#9)
    John Wall (#1)
    Derrick Favors (#3)
    DeMarcus Cousins (#5)
    Xavier Henry (#12)
    Kyrie Irving (#1)
    Tristan Thompson (#4)
    Brandon Knight (#8)

    A couple of misses in the late lottery and one top five bust (Thomas) but overall it's a much more accomplished list than the previous list of high school players drafted in the lottery.

  17. #17
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    make ALL players spend their first year in the development league......just let that soak in.....ALL players must spend their first year in the NBDL....


    imagine what we would have had over the past 5 years....letting them play for 30k, getting used to travel, more games, and no classes instead of having to go to an institute of higher learning when they don't want to...

    the nba gets a MUCH better evaluation, the D-league becomes a very hot ticket, and the kids get to play whenever they are able to make the cut on a d-team...
    "Either we're going down, or they are....... Kirk out!"

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    make ALL players spend their first year in the development league......just let that soak in.....ALL players must spend their first year in the NBDL....


    imagine what we would have had over the past 5 years....letting them play for 30k, getting used to travel, more games, and no classes instead of having to go to an institute of higher learning when they don't want to...

    the nba gets a MUCH better evaluation, the D-league becomes a very hot ticket, and the kids get to play whenever they are able to make the cut on a d-team...
    I like your idea but I don't think the D leaugue becomes a hot ticket. Every year you may have 1 or two players out of HS that are thought to be future superstars but still mostly kids aren't ready for the NBA. If HS players were allowed to go immediatley to the development league how many of this years crop would bring you out to a minor league game? I would say very few who would not have gone anyway. But like I said I like the idea for thesake of the college game.

  19. #19

    early entry

    Everybody makes the mistake of thinking about what's best for the game ... or for the kids ... or even for colleges.The hard truth is that the NBA is not going to act for the game, for the kids of for the colleges. They are only going to do what is best for them.

    As noted, for every Kobe or LeBron, there were a dozen unqualified high school kids drafted when they could be drafted. And even high school kids who did become students (such as Kobe) weren't impact guys in the NBA. Now, there are dozens of one-and-done players drafted who won't be make in the NBA (Daniel Orton? Marvin Williams?).

    I think if the NBA had its way, they'd like to raise the requirement to two years out of high school ... but they have to get agreement on that from the player's association. The players association is not opposed to that, but they see the issue as a bargining chip. They want something from the owners in return -- more cap space, a better wage scale ... somethng. The owners want the extra year, but it isn't a pressing issue for them. They have not yet offered the player's association anything in return.

    I like the suggestion that the NCAA change its approach and allow kids to go through the draft and then decide whether they come back or not. That would help a guy like Mason, who doesn't know if he's going to be first round or not. He could go through the draft and if he likes his draft spot, he could go ... if he doesn't, he would return to Duke. What I don't know is now much flexibility you have in signing negotiations. None of the first-round contracts are megotiable -- currently first-round money is slotted on where you are drafted. But suppose Mason went through the draft and was the first pick of the second round. He could say, give me a first-round contract (two years guaranteed) and I'll sign ... if not I'll go back to school. That kind of situation wouldn't improve the game and it would not help the colleges (it would be a nightmare for coaches wondering if their stars were returning or not ... imagine K trying to deal with the uncertainty over Mason. Does he go after an Oriakhi or that Polish big guy on the market ior not?).

    But it would help the kids.

    Maybe best of all, it would be a barginning chip the NCAA could use against the NBA. As much as colleges would have giving the kids that much freedom, the NBA would REALLY hate giving the draftees that much bargining power. Right now, there is nothing the NCAA can do to make the NBA accomodate them. Giving kids the freedom to go through the draft and come back might get the owners moving to negotiate a longer wait with the player's association. Of course, they might not -- one response could be to simply give NBA teams perpetual rights to their draftees (instead of the current one-year rights). In our scenario, Mason could go back to Duke after being a second round pick, but a year later, he'd still be owned by the team that picked him in 2012 and he' still be a second-round draft pick.

    I know it's a fantasy, but in my ideal world:

    (1) the NBA would expand the developmental league
    (2) kids coming out of high school could have the option of signing a pro contract -- the rare Kobe or LeBron could go straight to the NBA; most would go to the Developmental League until they were ready -- or signing with a college.
    (3) we would have the baseball rule -- you can be a pro right our of high school, but if you sign with a college, you have to stay at least three years (or until you are 21) before you were draftable.

    I think that system would help the kids (many of whom don't belong in college in the first place), it would help college basetball by giving them stability (I believe our game is hurt far more by the one-and-dones than the Dwight Howards, Kobe Bryants and LeBron James that we never had) and it would help the NBA, which would have a chance to draft either raw talents then prep them in the minors, or more fully formed college veterans ... while still having the flexibility to rush that are superstar straight from high school to the pros.

    Most of all, it would help the game of basketball. It's a lovely dream, but it would never be adopted.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Since the one-and-done rule was instituted (2006 to 2011), here's a list of all freshmen drafted in the lottery:

    Tyrus Thomas (#4)
    Greg Oden (#1)
    Kevin Durant (#2)
    Mike Conley (#4)
    Spencer Hawes (#10)
    Thaddeus Young (#12)
    Derrick Rose (#1)
    OJ Mayo (#3)
    Kevin Love (#5)
    Eric Gordon (#7)
    Jerryd Bayless (#11)
    Anthony Randolph (#14)
    Tyreke Evans (#4)
    DeMar DeRozan (#9)
    John Wall (#1)
    Derrick Favors (#3)
    DeMarcus Cousins (#5)
    Xavier Henry (#12)
    Kyrie Irving (#1)
    Tristan Thompson (#4)
    Brandon Knight (#8)

    A couple of misses in the late lottery and one top five bust (Thomas) but overall it's a much more accomplished list than the previous list of high school players drafted in the lottery.
    While I don't necessarily think it's fair, you probably have to consider Greg Oden a bust.

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