Top Movies of Summer (poll)

[El_Diablo]

Bad news for two thirds of our voters...a week before opening, MiB3 is currently tracking at 0% on Rotten Tomatoes. Good news...it's just one review so far. The gist of it is that the plot isn't very crisp, the humor isn't very funny, and it is generally underwhelming. It doesn't sound like a complete stinker, at least, and the timing of its release (Memorial Day weekend) should give it a strong opening even with subpar reviews, so it might still be fine for the top five.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Bad news for two thirds of our voters...a week before opening, MiB3 is currently tracking at 0% on Rotten Tomatoes. Good news...it's just one review so far. The gist of it is that the plot isn't very crisp, the humor isn't very funny, and it is generally underwhelming. It doesn't sound like a complete stinker, at least, and the timing of its release (Memorial Day weekend) should give it a strong opening even with subpar reviews, so it might still be fine for the top five.

Plus it has Will Smith. I think the more important number on RT to look at is the "want to see" rating, which is right now at 95%. Compared to the others on my top 5 list (which sucks since it doesn't have Avengers on it) it's looking golden.
Battleship - 85%
Brave - 95%
Prometheus - 98%
Dark Knight Rises - 94% (bet that keeps going up)

Ones not on my list..but just for the hell of it
Amazing Spiderman - 92%
Madagascar - 93%
Snow White/huntsman - 90%
Ice Age - 93%
Total Recall - 95% (really?)
Bourne Legacy - 84% (that's about what I expected for Total Recall)
GI Joe - 95% (damn teenagers! Are they the only ones voting?)
Abraham Lincoln/vampire - 85%

Well..after looking at some of those numbers (still can't believe TR gets 95%) maybe that's not a great foreseer...but I wished I had looked at them before I cast my votes. I bet Avengers was way, way up there.

[davekay1971]

Bad news for two thirds of our voters...a week before opening, MiB3 is currently tracking at 0% on Rotten Tomatoes. Good news...it's just one review so far. The gist of it is that the plot isn't very crisp, the humor isn't very funny, and it is generally underwhelming. It doesn't sound like a complete stinker, at least, and the timing of its release (Memorial Day weekend) should give it a strong opening even with subpar reviews, so it might still be fine for the top five.

I have a feeling that I'll end up kicking myself a lot more for not picking Spider-Man than for not picking MIB3. Granted, the release timing and the fact that it's opening 3 weeks after Avengers with only the inevitable stinker Battleship as a recently opened big release SHOULD give MIB3 a good opening weekend, but I have no faith in Barry Sonnenfeld. After a relatively strong opening on major studio films (Addams Family, Addams Family Values, Get Shorty, and Men In Black), he churned out Wild Wild West, Big Trouble, and MIB2...followed by something called RV. Maybe 6 years away from directing a movie has given him some fresh gas in the tank, but it seems more like the career arc of a talented guy who ran out of gas/ideas/steam and just lost it.

MIB3 also does have a relatively soft weekend following...although if MIB3 ends up stinking and Snow White and the Huntsman gets good reviews, Chris Hemsworth looking appropraitely muscled and grungy may get some biz from all the wives/girlfriends who spent the previous two weekends putting up with Battleship and MIB3 and are ready for some payback. And Piranha 3DD may get all the guys who don't have girlfriends (which, if they're paying money to see that kind of dreck, should be self-explanatory).

All of which, not to mention the other relatively tepid offerings on the June slate, make me feel better and better about my Prometheus and Brave picks. I see my downfall coming in picking Bourne over Spidey. That was dumb.

[JasonEvans]

More MIB III reviews--

Huffington Post UK gives it 4 stars.

Will Smith switches effortlessly between adventure – his knee-jerking time leap making the 3D specs worthwhile – humour, when he nicks a car before being accosted by a pair of bigoted 1969 cops – and sentimentality as he uncovers the motivations and moods of the curmudgeonly K.

ComicBookMovie.com loved it and also gives it 4 stars!

Men in Black 3 is a return to form for a franchise which began all the way back in 1997 and was followed up with a disappointing sequel in 2002. Fast forward ten years and the threequel not only outshines its predecessors, but manages to stand out in a summer crammed full of blockbusters.

DigitalSpy also chimes in with a 4 star review--

This is a funny, exciting, spectacular and surprisingly poignant thrill-ride - definitely worth two of your Earth hours.

Folks, I did not just go looking for good reviews. Those were the first 3 I found. I find this very encouraging!

-Jason "uh-oh, I am actually getting my hopes up about this movie! I see a screening on Monday" Evans

[BD80]

... Piranha 3DD may get all the guys who don't have girlfriends (which, if they're paying money to see that kind of dreck, should be self-explanatory). ...

The guys with girlfriends will have to wait for the DVD release - which should be another 3-4 weeks?

[Udaman]

Prometheus will not be in the top 5. I would put the odds of it doing so firmly at zero.

Why?

1) It's a horror film. They just don't sell. Too many people don't like being scared.

2) It's sci-fi. Big time. And not fantasy fun sci-fi (like Star Trek or Wars), but pure sci-fi, with monsters. This will also turn away numerous people.

3) No repeat business. I just don't see this as the kind of movie that a ton of people will want to go see again and again. Too dark.

4) No kids. You just can't excel, this summer, without drawing in the 15 and under kids. This movie will have none of those.

If it's lucky, this movie gets to $125M. That will barely be good enough for Top 10, if that.

[JasonEvans]

Prometheus will not be in the top 5. I would put the odds of it doing so firmly at zero.

Why?

1) It's a horror film. They just don't sell. Too many people don't like being scared.

2) It's sci-fi. Big time. And not fantasy fun sci-fi (like Star Trek or Wars), but pure sci-fi, with monsters. This will also turn away numerous people.

3) No repeat business. I just don't see this as the kind of movie that a ton of people will want to go see again and again. Too dark.

4) No kids. You just can't excel, this summer, without drawing in the 15 and under kids. This movie will have none of those.

If it's lucky, this movie gets to $125M. That will barely be good enough for Top 10, if that.

The list of R-rated movies that have made more than $200 million:

1. Passion of the Christ - $370.7 mil
2. Matrix Reloaded - $281.5
3. Hangover - $277.3
4. Hangover II - $254.4
5. Beverly Hills Copy - $234.7
6. Exorcist (1793) - $232.9
7. Saving Private Ryan - $216.5
8. 300 - $$210.6
9. Wedding Crashers - $209.2
10. Terminator 2: Judgement Day - $204.8

That's it. As you can see, the only horror film on there is Exorcist.

But, look at what happens when you do a little inflation adjusting --

Alien made $80.9 mil in 1979. Inflation adjusted, that is $249.1 mil.
Aliens made $85.1 mil in 1986. That inflation adjusts to $181.7 mil.

Still, there is no question that Prometheus has an uphill climb to do what almost all sci-fi/horror films have not done. Then again, it is extremely rare for a sci-fi/horror film to have this kind of buzz/pedigree/marketing attached to it. The amount of marketing associated with this flick is up there with any of the summer blockbusters. The notion that this movie won't get to $125 mil seems crazy to me, unless Lindelhoff's script and Scott's directing are a disaster... which seems highly unlikely.

In fact, I'd be willing to bet you just about anything that it makes at least $150 mil.

-Jason "I don't think you can treat this as a normal horror film -- it is more sci-fi than horror, I bet" Evans

[BD80]

The list of R-rated movies that have made more than $200 million:

1. ...
5. Beverly Hills Copy - $234.7...

AKA: Beverly Hills Cop II?

All sequels should be so honestly advertised.

[davekay1971]

Prometheus will not be in the top 5. I would put the odds of it doing so firmly at zero..

I'd say with the pedigree and buzz it has, and if it's high quality, it has a chance. Not a great one...especially not if MIB3 is as good as Jason's 3 reviews suggest...but it has a chance.

I'll take your odds...which means I'll bet a penny and, if Prometheus ends up in the top 5, you owe me $infinity. PM me your address so I can mail you the penny if I lose!

[JasonEvans]

AKA: Beverly Hills Cop II?

All sequels should be so honestly advertised.

No, that was just supposed to be Beverly Hills Cop. I am not sure how I put the Y on the end.

But, that would be a funny name for the lackluster sequel to the fun and funny first film.

-Jason

[JasonEvans]

bcsu, Brian12215, CameronBornAndBred, cato, dukefanSD, ncexnyc, Olympic Fan, Tommac

Battleship voters, you are gonna lose.

I think word of mouth will be so-so at best and I think there is not a lot of excitement or buzz for this film to start with. I'll be mildly surprised if it has a $50 mil opening weekend, which is probably the minimum threshold you need to get to $200 mil unless you have incredible word of mouth.

-Jason "I think that after everyone felt great from seeing Avengers, it hurts the next sci-fi film because the comparison makes that film look even worse" Evans

Early word from boxoffice watchers I know is that Battleship is on course to about a $30-$35 mil opening, which is disastrous. If that is the case, this film likely does not even make $100 mill total at the domestic boxoffice. Luckily, it has done fairly well overseas (already at $200 mil, though it has been out for several weeks already), so it will not be a total financial disaster.

As an aside, Avengers seems set to make around $55 mil this weekend. A stunningly good 3rd weekend.

-Jason "Dictator and What to Expect will both make less than $20 mil this weekend, perhaps only around $13-$15 mil each" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Early word from boxoffice watchers I know is that Battleship is on course to about a $30-$35 mil opening, which is disastrous. If that is the case, this film likely does not even make $100 mill total at the domestic boxoffice. Luckily, it has done fairly well overseas (already at $200 mil, though it has been out for several weeks already), so it will not be a total financial disaster.

As an aside, Avengers seems set to make around $55 mil this weekend. A stunningly good 3rd weekend.

-Jason "Dictator and What to Expect will both make less than $20 mil this weekend, perhaps only around $13-$15 mil each" Evans

The early word was right. It was a disastrously bad weekend for all the new films.

Battleship made just $25.3 mil, even less than the already bad estimates I posted on Friday. It had a very poor B-minus Cinemascore, which means the people who saw it did not like it and won't be saying nice things about it to their friends. I doubt it even makes $75 mil at the boxoffice. Not only will it not be in the Top 5 of summer... I doubt it even makes the top 15. Bad!

Dictator did $17.4 mil. It opened on Wednesday so it currently stands at $24.4 mil in total boxoffice. It also won't make even $75 mil overall. It certainly won't make as much as Borat did ($128 mil) and could struggle to reach even Bruno's $60 mil. But, it is doing well overseas already and with a $65 mil budget, it is going to make money for Sasha and Paramount.

What to Expect made a paltry $10.5 million. It is a disaster.

Meanwhile, Dark Shadows dropped 57% in its second weekend, making just $12.7 million for a 2 week total of $50.9 mil. $100 mil seems like a stretch at this point.

We will learn a lot more about our contest with MIB III opening this coming weekend. Most folks see it as one of the major contenders for the Top 5 though not the lock that some of the other films in the Top 5 may be. It will need a $60+ mil opening to be a real contender.

-Jason "I am seeing a screening of MIB III tonight and will report back" Evans

[BD80]

... Battleship ... had a very poor B-minus Cinemascore, which means the people who saw it did not like it and won't be saying nice things about it to their friends. ... I doubt it even makes the top 15. Bad! ...

Ewww sunk my Battleship!

[Tommac]

Despite the negative reviews I saw Battleship this weekend and thoroughly enjoyed it. Now I'm not saying it's as good as The Avengers, which I saw for the second time on Friday, but Battleship was good entertainment.

[Olympic Fan]

Despite the negative reviews I saw Battleship this weekend and thoroughly enjoyed it. Now I'm not saying it's as good as The Avengers, which I saw for the second time on Friday, but Battleship was good entertainment.

Well, it's pretty obvious that Battleship will not approach the $200 million mark it will likely to take t get in the top 5.

Obviously, I missed.

My only explanation is that I got burned on The Transformers (stupid movies that looked awful to me -- so I didn't pick them to my regret) in previous polls and the early previews I saw of this movie made it look like the transformers series. The funny thing is that although the reviews are lousy, it actually reviewed better than the most recent Transformers movie -- in fact, I read several reviews that made a direct connection between the two, essentially saying that Battleship was drek, but not nearly as bad as the last two Transformers.

I guess they didn't make it stupid enough for the teen audience.

PS Did anybody else happen to check out the Syfy Channel Saturday night? It must have been ripoff night -- the first movie was called Battle of Los Angeles and was a cheapie ripoff of the theatrical film Battle: Los Angeles ... and it was followed by a new made-for-tv film titled American Warships, which was a blatant ripoff of Battleship -- down to the Battleship Iowa (on its last cruise before becoming a museum ship) gets involved with alien invaders who have the ability to fry modern electronics, thus negating all our military might, EXCEPT the WWII era mechantics of the Iowa.

[snowdenscold]

and it was followed by a new made-for-tv film titled American Warships, which was a blatant ripoff of Battleship -- down to the Battleship Iowa (on its last cruise before becoming a museum ship) gets involved with alien invaders who have the ability to fry modern electronics, thus negating all our military might, EXCEPT the WWII era mechantics of the Iowa.

Hmm, sounds somewhat similar to the premise of Battlestar Galactica - an 'older' warship that didn't get taken out by the alien invasion due to it not having the latest technological upgrades (which the aliens exploited).

[JasonEvans]

-Jason "I am seeing a screening of MIB III tonight and will report back" Evans

My report is... maybe.

It is not a disaster (like Dark Shadows or Battleship), not by a long-shot. But, it is not great either.

It drags a bit in the run-up to the ending. There are several moments that seem utterly lost (at one point Will gets all wigged out about taking a ride on a jet pack, and then, in the next scene, they are landing and it was totally uneventful -- like they wanted to do something but then decided not to). Tommy Lee Jones looks ancient and tired and is barely in the film. Will Smith isn't nearly as funny as he has been in the past. It feels a bit like he is here to collect a paycheck.

But, there are some very good parts. Just when I thought the ending was going to be blaah and fail to explain an important plot point, it hits a homer and emotionally connects with the audience in a way this franchise never has. There are some funny scenes thanks to other characters and everyone in the supporting cast does a fabulous job -- especially Jermaine Clement as Boris The Animal. He's engaging despite being buried in tons of makeup the entire movie.

I am not sure what to make of the boxoffice prospects for the film. There is probably a good bit of pent up demand for another decent summer film now that Avengers if almost a month old. This at least satisfies the "decent" part of the formula. That said, it pales in comparison to Avengers and I doubt it inspires much repeat business. I won't be shocked if it stalls in the $140 mil kinda range but it has a chance to get to that magical $200 mil threshold. It will be #1 this coming weekend, for sure. It will be interesting to see what kind of cinemascore it gets to see if it is going to have the word of mouth it will need to get to $200 mil.

-Jason "overall, I'd say it is worth seeing - if I did the star thing, I'd give it 3 stars out of 5" Evans

[brevity]

Will Smith isn't nearly as funny as he has been in the past. It feels a bit like he is here to collect a paycheck.

I wasn't going to see this movie, but then Will Smith slapped me in the face, and I guess I had to change my mind.

Sounds like this year's Pirates of the Caribbean 4: a film almost nobody wanted but almost everybody saw. It'll do fine.

[JasonEvans]

Just weeks before it was supposed to be released, Paramount has decided to move GI Joe 2 back to March 29 of 2013. The word is that Paramount wants to do a 3D conversion on the film and that takes time. GI Joe 2 had been expected to be the big release on June 29th.

Meanwhile, the moment GI Joe 2 moved, Universal saw an opening and moved Ted up from its old July 13th date into the now somewhat open June 29th slot. The general consensus is that this is a good move for Ted and may help that film a bit. I still don't think it is a $200 mil movie, not even close, but it will help it to reach a wider audience.

The weird thing is that Paramount had spent a small fortune already on GIJoe 2 promotion. They had run a Super Bowl commercial. They had bought TV ad time and printed posters and paid to run trailers all over the place. It will also probably cost them $15 or $20 mill to do the 3D conversion. It seems like a strange move, but I suspect they think the extra boxoffice from 3D will be worth it.

Anyway, luckily no one bothered to vote for GI Joe 2 in our poll.

-Jason "this weekend, MIB III will likely do $70+ mil, that is what I am hearing" Evans

[davekay1971]

Just weeks before it was supposed to be released, Paramount has decided to move GI Joe 2 back to March 29 of 2013. The word is that Paramount wants to do a 3D conversion on the film and that takes time. GI Joe 2 had been expected to be the big release on June 29th.

Meanwhile, the moment GI Joe 2 moved, Universal saw an opening and moved Ted up from its old July 13th date into the now somewhat open June 29th slot. The general consensus is that this is a good move for Ted and may help that film a bit. I still don't think it is a $200 mil movie, not even close, but it will help it to reach a wider audience.

The weird thing is that Paramount had spent a small fortune already on GIJoe 2 promotion. They had run a Super Bowl commercial. They had bought TV ad time and printed posters and paid to run trailers all over the place. It will also probably cost them $15 or $20 mill to do the 3D conversion. It seems like a strange move, but I suspect they think the extra boxoffice from 3D will be worth it.

Anyway, luckily no one bothered to vote for GI Joe 2 in our poll.

-Jason "this weekend, MIB III will likely do $70+ mil, that is what I am hearing" Evans

I can't imagine a studio really running with this kind of decision at the last minute for the reason stated. I mean, really, all of a sudden they decide to do a 3D conversion, a decision which probably would have (or should have) been analyzed and made long ago. Isn't the timing more likely to mean the final cut of the movie looked like a disaster waiting to happen, and time was needed for a more significant reworking?