Top Movies of Summer (poll)

[blazindw]

I'm getting a real Superman (from a few years ago) vibe about this Spidey movie. Maybe I'm just older, but there doesn't seem to be that much excitement.

I don't think there have been many commercials hyping it, but probably because the franchise will sell itself. I think we'll start to see them soon. Superman Returns, despite the fact that it wasn't great, still made $200M. Even if Spidey falls in the range between Superman Returns and Spidey 3, that may be enough to get it in the Top 5.

[snowdenscold]

So is it just me who doesn't have any interest in the new Spiderman? It feels way too close to the last Spiderman '1' (2002) - I would have waited another 10 years to do this one. Plus, the trailers didn't excite me that much either.

Of course, every time I do these polls based on what excites me or doesn't - I end up doing terribly.

[JasonEvans]

Interesting poll by Fandango. What is the most anticipated movie of the summer:

Men’s Picks for Most Anticipated Summer Movie:
1."The Avengers" 31%
2."The Dark Knight Rises" 23%
3."The Bourne Legacy" 14%
4."Men in Black 3" 8%
5."Prometheus" 7%

Women’s Picks for Most Anticipated Summer Movie:
1."Snow White and the Huntsman" 22%
2."The Avengers" 16%
3."Men in Black 3" 13%
4."The Dark Knight Rises" 10%
5."Dark Shadows" 8%

Obviously, that is strong news for Avengers... though the fact that Avengers comes out in just a couple weeks and has gotten the most recent press probably strongly influences the poll. I must say though, the votes of support for Huntsman and Bourne Legacy have me considering those films a bit more than I might otherwise have. Hmmmm.

-Jason "this is not easy -- after Avengers and Dark Knight, I can make a case for probably 5 or 6 other films" Evans

[bjornolf]

(in no particular order)

Avengers
MIB3
Madagascar 3
Ice Age II
Dark Knight

This one-ups last years top 5 which were all sequels by all being the third movie in a series --- if you count Avengers as sort of the third movie in the Ironman series.

I think you could play that against the field and still be close to even odds in Vegas.

Isn't Avengers more like a fifth or sixth movie? Don't you have to count Ironman, Ironman 2, Hulk, Captain America, and Thor?

[bjornolf]

Don't think Brave will make it because of female protagonist and competition from a lot of movies around that weekend.

Tangled did over $200M opening in November, and it wasn't about a butt-kicking heroine. I always bet on the mouse. He doesn't let me down too often.

[JasonEvans]

Tangled did over $200M opening in November, and it wasn't about a butt-kicking heroine. I always bet on the mouse. He doesn't let me down too often.

Especially when the mouse is teamed with the bouncing lamp, Luxo Jr.



-Jason "last summer, betting on Pixar's Cars 2, was a winner... but the movie sucked" Evans

[Tom B.]

Dark Knight Rises
Avengers
Brave
Spidey

Safe choice for #5 would probably be MiB III, but I think I'm gonna go with Prometheus.

My dark horse...The Dictator. It seems like there's often a sleeper in the Top 5 that nobody expects -- also, there's no "pure" comedy among the primary selections. MiB III and Brave will no doubt have comic elements, but they're really hybrids of comedy and other genres (sci-fi and animated). If any of the pure comedies coming out this summer have a shot at capturing enough buzz to sneak into the top five (like The Hangover three years ago), I think it's The Dictator.

[Olympic Fan]

Dark Knight Rises
Avengers
Brave
Spidey

Safe choice for #5 would probably be MiB III, but I think I'm gonna go with Prometheus.

My dark horse...The Dictator. It seems like there's often a sleeper in the Top 5 that nobody expects -- also, there's no "pure" comedy among the primary selections. MiB III and Brave will no doubt have comic elements, but they're really hybrids of comedy and other genres (sci-fi and animated). If any of the pure comedies coming out this summer have a shot at capturing enough buzz to sneak into the top five (like The Hangover three years ago), I think it's The Dictator.

I have to disagree about The Dictator. We had the discussion in another thread about comedies -- and how it's hard to find a comedy that appeals to a really broad audience. There are a few, but not many. I think Baron Cohen is an acquired taste ... I know that many viewers like his brand of humor and thus I'm sure the film will be successful, but an even larger fan base does not respond to his schict ... so I don't think there's any chance he gets to the $200 range.

But, who knows, I never win these things ... but if I lose this year (and I will), I think it's because I didn't pick the pixar film (what was I thinking) and not The Dictator.

[Tom B.]

I have to disagree about The Dictator. We had the discussion in another thread about comedies -- and how it's hard to find a comedy that appeals to a really broad audience. There are a few, but not many. I think Baron Cohen is an acquired taste ... I know that many viewers like his brand of humor and thus I'm sure the film will be successful, but an even larger fan base does not respond to his schict ... so I don't think there's any chance he gets to the $200 range.

But, who knows, I never win these things ... but if I lose this year (and I will), I think it's because I didn't pick the pixar film (what was I thinking) and not The Dictator.

I agree that Sacha Baron Cohen is an acquired taste, but Borat did over $260 million at the box office in 2006-07 dollars -- once you adjust for inflation, you're probably pushing $300 million. Also, The Dictator is a little different from his other films, as it's not a mockumentary that revolves around his character goofing on unsuspecting civilians, but a more (for lack of a better word) conventional movie with an actual cast of characters and (again, for lack of a better word) plot. So it may have a bit more appeal beyond his usual fanbase.

[JasonEvans]

I agree that Sacha Baron Cohen is an acquired taste, but Borat did over $260 million at the box office in 2006-07 dollars -- once you adjust for inflation, you're probably pushing $300 million. Also, The Dictator is a little different from his other films, as it's not a mockumentary that revolves around his character goofing on unsuspecting civilians, but a more (for lack of a better word) conventional movie with an actual cast of characters and (again, for lack of a better word) plot. So it may have a bit more appeal beyond his usual fanbase.

Ummm, I think you are getting domestic and worldwide grosses confused.

Borat made $128.5 mil in the US market in 2006-07. It made another $133 mil overseas. That is a fine showing for a non-sequel comedy without any big stars in it (SBCohen is not a big star), but it ain't anywhere close to the kind of numbers you need to make the top 5 of Summer... even if you adust for inflation (which takes it to around $150 mil).

I will say this about comedies, they are probably the hardest genre in which to predict success. Quality and word of mouth seem to matter a lot more than in some other genres, which is how movies like Hangover, Wedding Crashers, and Bridesmaids can come out of left field and suddenly make around $200 million and crash the Top 5 of summer.

-Jason "I don't think the Dictator will make it to $200 mil, but I've been wrong before" Evans

[Tom B.]

Ummm, I think you are getting domestic and worldwide grosses confused.

Borat made $128.5 mil in the US market in 2006-07. It made another $133 mil overseas. That is a fine showing for a non-sequel comedy without any big stars in it (SBCohen is not a big star), but it ain't anywhere close to the kind of numbers you need to make the top 5 of Summer... even if you adust for inflation (which takes it to around $150 mil).

I will say this about comedies, they are probably the hardest genre in which to predict success. Quality and word of mouth seem to matter a lot more than in some other genres, which is how movies like Hangover, Wedding Crashers, and Bridesmaids can come out of left field and suddenly make around $200 million and crash the Top 5 of summer.

-Jason "I don't think the Dictator will make it to $200 mil, but I've been wrong before" Evans

Yep, you're right -- I thought my figure was the domestic gross, but it was actually the combined domestic and overseas gross. My bad.

Still stand by it as my dark horse, though, for the reason you stated. It seems like there's often a comedy sleeper that generates a slowly-building buzz over time and just hangs around, never hitting #1 in box office receipts for any given week, but posting steadily solid numbers over several weeks and never really experiencing the big dropoff after opening like a lot of the blockbusters do. Some summers it doesn't happen at all, but if a film's gonna do it this year, The Dictator is my pick.

[brevity]

Here are the release dates:

Avengers May 4
Dark Shadows May 11
Battleship May 18
Men In Black 3 May 25
Snow White and the Huntsman June 1
Prometheus June 8
Madagascar 3 June 8
Brave June 22
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter June 22
GI Joe II June 29
Amazing Spider-Man July 3
Ice Age: Continental Drift July 13
Dark Knight Rises July 20
Total Recall Aug 3
The Bourne Legacy Aug 3

I gave you points for correcting Jason's hideous error and giving us the single most important piece of information: the release date. Everyone who voted before BD80's post deserves to lose.

I was going to give MIB3 a free pass until I noticed that its studio paired Will Smith with the wrong holiday. His box office magic is tied to July 4th, not Memorial Day. (That said, usually there are 2 big films for Memorial Day, but not this year, so...) Now I have to think about it some more. Meanwhile, The Amazing Spider-Man (the sole Independence Day event picture) has a better shot than I originally thought.

In fact, a bunch of these release dates make predictions murkier than expected. Battleship has a very small, un-Transformers-like window of opportunity. (But again, the lack of a second Memorial Day release a week later gives it a little more breathing room.) And no animated films until June 8? Stupid. Madagascar 3 will beat Prometheus, at least opening weekend, by default. Incidentally, the kind of adult fans that would most likely see Prometheus have 2 weeks to do it before 2 other, similarly targeted films (Brave and Abe Lincoln) grab their attention. Bad scheduling.

Bottom line? This is not the time to get creative with picks. There will be winning films like Pirates of the Caribbean 4 last year, that get a lot of money just because people want to see SOMETHING on a major release date, even something they had no particular desire to see. There are no sleepers here, because the studios don't know what they're doing.

[brevity]

Everyone who voted before BD80's post deserves to lose.

Correction: everyone except JNort and whereinthehellami, who have excellent taste.

[davekay1971]

I gave you points for correcting Jason's hideous error and giving us the single most important piece of information: the release date. Everyone who voted before BD80's post deserves to lose..

Guilty as charged posting without the critical info, and instantly regretted the Bourne pick. An August pick...ugh. I expect DKR will still be going strong when Bourne is released, and Bourne will probably fight with Total Recall some for audience (thought if Bourne has good enough word of mouth and reviews, it may crush Total Recall like a bug).

Instead MIB 3 actually looks better given the lack of much direct competition for the weeks following. Prometheus may be great, but the 15-25 crowd is not as likely to turn away from a big budget special-effects action-comedy to see some kinda-Alien-prequel-from-the-guy-who-directed-the-original-Alien-movie-like-100-years-ago-that-my-Dad's-all-excited-about-movie. That is to say, Prometheus may have legs and do well, but it's not going to steal much of MIB3's audience.

July 4 may give Spidey a shot, but it better get it done in the first 2 weekends, because when DKR comes, Spidey's done.

Beg to differ with Brevity, though, that Brave or Abe Lincoln are targeting the same audience as Prometheus. Abe Lincoln looks like some kind of funky action-horror that's got to be targeting teens/tweens. Brave is kids and their chauffers. There may be some steal as the parents who had their fun seeing Prometheus do the good-parent thing and take their kids to Brave, letting the babysitters tag along with their boyfriends to Abe, however...

[bjornolf]

In fact, a bunch of these release dates make predictions murkier than expected. Battleship has a very small, un-Transformers-like window of opportunity. (But again, the lack of a second Memorial Day release a week later gives it a little more breathing room.) And no animated films until June 8? Stupid. Madagascar 3 will beat Prometheus, at least opening weekend, by default. Incidentally, the kind of adult fans that would most likely see Prometheus have 2 weeks to do it before 2 other, similarly targeted films (Brave and Abe Lincoln) grab their attention. Bad scheduling.

Have to agree with DK. I don't see how Brave and Prometheus are in any way targeted to the same audience.

[JasonEvans]

I gave you points for correcting Jason's hideous error and giving us the single most important piece of information: the release date. Everyone who voted before BD80's post deserves to lose.

Hey, I give enough free info in this thread that I am under no obligation to also hand out the crucial release date information. I listed the films in order of release date, which is enough of a head start that everyone should be able to do their homework and figure the rest out.

By the way, while release date matters it is not the end-all, be-all of predicting. Last summer two films that were "too late" in the season to be real contenders ("Rise of the Apes" and "The Help") turned out to be strong contenders. Meanwhile, a film that was too early to be a contender ("Fast Five") would have made the Top 5 if we had allowed it to be a part of the contest.

-Jason "quality (word of mouth) and buzz (is it a must-see that everyone talks about) matters a heck of a lot more than release date" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Just in case anyone was wondering...

With less than 2 weeks to go in our balloting, 36 DBR users have cast votes. Here are the most popular choices.

Dark Knight Rises - 91.67% (33 votes)
Avengers - 88.89% (32 votes)
Men in Black 3 - 63.89% (23 votes)
Brave - 55.56% (20 votes)
Amazing Spider-Man - 55.56% (20 votes)
Madagascar 3 - 36.11% (13 votes)
Prometheus - 30.56% (11 votes)
Battleship - 22.22% (8 votes)
Ice Age 4 - 16.67% (6 votes)
Bourne Legacy - 13.89% (5 votes)

-Jason "I'll update again in a few days" Evans

[devildm]

Agree with everyone else that Avengers and Dark Knight are locks. I think MIB3 has a good holiday weekend with no major blockbusters within a few weeks, plus Will Smith is a draw and it's been just long enough, but not too long, for a new generation to get interested in it as well as bring back the old fans. I always pick a kids movie. After Cars 3 burned me last year, I'm not backing Brave. Madagascar was very popular plus I think it has an advantage on the weekend it is released as Brave and Ice Age are pretty close to other blockbuster movies. My hardest choice came between Bourne and Spidey. I agree with some of the others who don't feel the excitement about this reboot as it is too close to the others plus I do like the Bourne movies and Jeremy Renner, but then I look at my son and his spiderman clothes and toys and realize that spidey has such a wide generation appeal that it will probably do well.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well I'm up the creek since I didn't pick Avengers. I was going with the guess that since it's a mush of multiple characters the story would struggle (which is often the case), critics would not be happy, and given its early summer release by the time other movies came along this one would be on it's way out.
Looking at early reviews on Rottentomatoes, the critics are in love and my gamble is doomed. Poop.

[JasonEvans]

Well I'm up the creek since I didn't pick Avengers. I was going with the guess that since it's a mush of multiple characters the story would struggle (which is often the case), critics would not be happy, and given its early summer release by the time other movies came along this one would be on it's way out.
Looking at early reviews on Rottentomatoes, the critics are in love and my gamble is doomed. Poop.

When in doubt, always bet on a clever/creative/winning director and/or screenwriter. Joss Whedon is both director and writer of this thing and his track record is pretty solid. How many of you knew that he was one of the screenwriters of the original Toy Story back in the mid-90s? Betting on the director is how I picked Inception to be a big hit a couple years ago before anyone knew much of anything about the movie. I just said, "I am trusting Christopher Nolan" to do something amazing because he always does something amazing."

It is true that Whedon's directing track record is mostly just on TV (plus the fabulous internet video Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along Blog). In fact, the only movie he has directed prior to Avengers was Serenity, which was hardly a boxoffice hit. But, if you saw Serenity, you know it was an excellent sci-fi film (and I say that without being someone who watched any of Firefly on TV). Serenity scored a nice 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and is a film with plenty of CG effects, which shows that Whedon could handle the kind of effects we are bound to see in The Avengers.

So, that is why, even if we had not seen the good early reviews, I would be confident it is going to be a quality pic and a mortal lock for the Top 5.

But, I could still be wrong. Neither Thor nor Captain America made the top 5 last summer and one has to wonder how many people skipped those movies and will now want to see this movie.

-Jason "when you add in X-Men's performance last summer, you have to wonder if there is a bit of comic book fatigue that will keep any comic book movie from making more than $200 mil right now" Evans