View Poll Results: Which 5 films will make the most at the boxoffice this summer?

Voters
62. You may not vote on this poll
  • Avengers

    56 90.32%
  • Dark Shadows

    4 6.45%
  • Battleship

    8 12.90%
  • Men in Black 3

    41 66.13%
  • Snow White and the Huntsman

    2 3.23%
  • Prometheus

    13 20.97%
  • Madagascar 3

    22 35.48%
  • Brave

    34 54.84%
  • Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter

    2 3.23%
  • GI Joe II

    0 0%
  • Amazing Spider-Man

    38 61.29%
  • Ice Age: Continental Drift

    8 12.90%
  • Dark Knight Rises

    58 93.55%
  • Total Recall

    1 1.61%
  • The Bourne Legacy

    10 16.13%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 41 to 60 of 226
  1. #41
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    Dark Knight Rises voters

    So, I happened to notice that 39 of our 42 voters so far had voted for Dark Knight Rises. Given the success of the previous Dark Knight film, this seems like a logical flick to pick as one of the Top 5 of the summer.

    So, I would love to hear from the posters Meal Jar, rogue, or -bdbd about why they did not vote for it.

    I do not mean this as a criticism, I am merely wondering what they saw that made them doubt the success of this flick.

    -Jason "thanks!" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  2. #42
    Maybe they're betting on the comic book fatigue theory.
    LET'S GO DUKE!

  3. #43
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    I don't think I picked but 3 ..

    Madagascar.. a kids movie that will bring in a bunch.

    I think I voted for the Avengers ( I thought it was the 1960's version with Diana Riggs LOL J/k ) and I voted for Bourne because I like Ludlum books, and so far the Bourne series has kept my interest..

    I realize the question was what would bring in the most gold dust.. and I didn't really vote on it in that manner

    Anyone can have my other two votes ( for a price ) and vote for the Black knight ( aka batman ) if they like

  4. #44
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    Love this time of year (and this poll, which I think I was the one who first started it.....way back when....hard to remember).

    Anyway, I agree with JE to a degree. There are definitely two locks for this. But I'll go a step further - I think there are four absolute locks for the top 5. I'll give my top 8, with my projected take:

    1. Avengers. The hype for this movie is huge, and has been huge for years. It has all the characters from a ton of movies that have done extremely well. It will be loud and fast and fun. Oh, and some guy named Whedon is directing it. It also has no real competition for the 8-12 year old kid segment for two weeks (and really more). This is going to open north of $115M, and finish at over $300M. I'll say $330M

    2. Dark Knight. I would have this #1, but a few things worry me. First, it's the 3rd (and 3rd movies have tended to struggle). Second - batgirl. Never liked that character (too campy). Third - Bane. He's a decent bad guy, but I would have preferred a deranged Riddler, or Penguin, or more of Two-Face. Finally, it's coming out really late in the summer. True you can survive that, but more people start going to the beach in late July, and that can have an effect. Still, this movie is a lock, and it might beat Avengers. I'll put it at $305M.

    3. Spider Man. I'm surprised JE, that you don't have this as a lock. Look at what the others have done. Spiderman 3, which was an awful movie, made $336M, five years ago. Boys under 13 love Spiderman. Love! My son can't wait for this movie (it's the one he's most excited about). Still, I agree with others that it's a reboot a little too soon, and there might be some fatigue here. But it gets the July 4th weekend (which is a 5 day affair this year), comes out 2 months after Avengers and 2 weeks before Dark Knight. I'll say $300M.

    4. Men in Black 3. Also a lock in my opinion. Why? It's the only true wide range comedy out there. Find another one. What to Expect? Maybe, but not really. Dark Shadows? Too black comedy. Men in Black will bring in women, parents, old people and kids. People are going to want a break from the explosions and super heroes, and scary creatures. Plus the last Men in Black did $190M in 2002, and it wasn't that good. This one should be better, and with inflation it will come in above $200M which will be good enough. The fact that it opens over Memorial Day weekend will only help with a huge, huge first weekend. I'll say $245M.

    Those are my top 4 locks. Locks!

    So what will be #5. Well, to me that's a lock as well...sort of. It will be an animated film. Period. That means either Ice Age, Madagascar or Brave. Here's where the winner of this competition will actually win: by correctly guessing which of these beats the other, and I think it's going to be really, really close. My pick:

    5. Brave. Again, this is tough. My head is screaming to take Ice Age or Madagascar because they appeal to the little kids as well (those say 4-6) while Brave likely will not. But I went with Brave because a) I think more adults will see it. Look, my kids all want to see all of these, but there is NO WAY I'll be going along with them to see Ice Age or Madagascar. No way. But I want to see Brave. So does my wife. b) It's Pixar and, Cars 2 excluded, they make great movies. c) the female lead is nice. Reviews will call her the animated, and kid approved, version of Katniss. d) Timing. Brave comes out 2 weeks after Madagascar (and will take that audience) and then 3 weeks before Ice Age. I think that will make the difference. I'm going to put it at $230M.

    6. Madagascar 3. It is the first release. It has those annoying south pacific creatures that my kids now watch on TV, and all my kids want to see it, even my 13 year old (thanks to the TV series). This one might be #5, and I'll be kicking myself if it is. $225M

    7. Ice Age. It's the last, and has no other kid competition for a while, so it could have legs. But man this is a tired concept, and hopefully it will be just like the last Chipmunks movie. Still, the fourth one of these made $196M and it got destroyed by the critics. I'll put this one at $195M.

    8. Lincoln: Vampire Killer. Love the idea, and if this movie is half as good as it sounds, then it will do great with men between 18 and 30, and have repeat showings. The downside is that it's vampires (and people are tired of that genre) and could be violent and scary. Still, I'll put it at $175M.

    So what's left out:

    Prometheus. I don't normally watch trailers (I like to be completely spoiler free), but found myself watching this one....and I must say I was massively underwhelmed. It's not Alien. It looks too supernatural. It looks too "been there done that." It's dark, and horror movies don't tend to do that well overall. This one will probably break $100M, but I would be shocked if it did more than $150M.

    Total Recall. This is my darkhorse to break the top 8. It will have a ton of 40 somethings going to see it out of respect for the first one. But it still won't be in the top 8. $160M.

    GI Joe. The first one made $150M. The problem with this one is timing. It comes out a week before SpiderMan and right after Lincoln. If this were an August release, it would have the teenage and under boy crowd all to itself. Here's a case where timing will matter. $135M.

    Borne Legacy. Sorry, but Jason Bourne is Matt Damon. Jeremy Renner - you are no Matt Damon. I say $115M.

    And finally, the busts:

    It starts and ends with The Dictator. This movie is going to crash and burn big, big time. It's a knockoff of Boris. Sasha's antics are "so last week" to say the least. Plus every single preview I have seen has made me cringe. I won't see this (and I see pretty much every movie that comes out). I say $60M, if that. Also, "That's My Boy" will continue the trend of Adam Sandler making horrible movies that somehow don't flop. This is a true contender for the Razzies (though The Dictator will sweep the awards)

    Finally, I'll just say that I'm intrigued by both Battleship and Rock of Ages. I'm not sure how to place either. They could both be flops. They could both surprise. I don't see either in the top 8 (or top 5), mainly because I think Battleship is too much a tweener (too intense for little kids, too cheesy for adults), and the Taylor Kitsch backlash could actually hurt it, and Rock of Ages just looks too silly to make it. But I certainly plan on seeing both. And I guess if I had to pick a "Bridesmaids" kind of sleeper it would be "Ted." It's an adult romantic, dark comedy, and if it gets good reviews and good word of mouth it could have legs because it's the only one out there like that.

    Bring on the summer!

  5. #45
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    Hey, Uda... THE POLL AIN'T CLOSED YET! Don't go giving everything away!

    Calling DKR and Avengers locks was easy. I went there. But laying out the others... well, I just didn't want to give that much away.

    I largely agree with what you wrote, with some exceptions. But, I will wait until the poll closes to do that

    -Jason
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  6. #46

    Summer Movies

    Avengers, Spiderman and Batman seem certain. Brave looks good but I wonder if Madagascar 3 or another Ice Age might not top it at the box office. Blow ‘em movies Battleship and G.I. Joe 2 will make noise. Prometheus seems promising. Oddly not too enthused about a third MIB. Could Dark Shadows pull in both Pirates and vampire fans?

    Finally chose Avengers, Spiderman, Batman, Madagascar 3 and Brave.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post


    2. Dark Knight. I would have this #1, but a few things worry me. First, it's the 3rd (and 3rd movies have tended to struggle). Second - batgirl. Never liked that character (too campy). Third - Bane. He's a decent bad guy, but I would have preferred a deranged Riddler, or Penguin, or more of Two-Face. Finally, it's coming out really late in the summer. True you can survive that, but more people start going to the beach in late July, and that can have an effect. Still, this movie is a lock, and it might beat Avengers. I'll put it at $305M.

    This movie will make north of $400M. It's Nolan and its the last time he's directing a Batman movie. Also Batgirl is not in the movie, Catwoman is.

  8. #48
    Get your votes in--only one day left!

  9. #49
    Join Date
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    Well, I finally voted.

    Dark Knight Rises
    Avengers
    Amazing Spider-Man
    Men In Black 3
    Brave

    I was all set to vote for Prometheus, but when I saw the latest trailer it screamed creepy sci-fi horror at me and I think it will have real trouble finding a wide enough audience for that kind of movie to make the $225 mil or so that it is likely to take to reach the Top 5. Women and adults are not into those kind of movies. I also think it seems set to get an R rating (though Scott says he is trying to make it PG-13). An R-rated sci-fi horror film will not make $200+ million. Not gonna happen. From a boxoffice standpoint, R works fine if you are a raunchy adult comedy, but not if you are a gory horror film.

    So, to the films I picked...

    Dark Knight and Avengers are mortal locks. Anyone who did not pick them has already lost. It is just a fact people.

    I think Avengers will be so good that it will excite people about comic book movies again and that will help Spider-man. I also think the Spider-man franchise is pretty much bulletproof. He is such a hugely popular pop culture character. There will be kids in Spider-man pajamas seeing this movie. The movie would have to be just godawful to not do $250 million and the buzz is fairly positive so I think this one will be fine.

    MIB 3 is an established franchise, but (more importantly) it is Will Smith. Smith is the biggest star on the planet. He is popular with men and women, African-Americans and Caucasians, young and old. He could read the phone book on screen for 2 hours and the movie would make money. My only hesitation is that Will has not been on screen in like 4 years and some of his star may have faded. But, this is an established franchise with a large built-in audience as a result. I could be wrong about this one. The reviews could be bad (director Barry Sonnefeld has done stinkers in the past) and it could stall in the $180 mil territory, but it seemed like a safer bet than some of the other choices.

    Finally, there is Brave. Never bet against Pixar! The trailers and clips for Brave look good and I like its position on the calendar as well as the competition around it. I think the strong female character will bring in the girls and the mystical, medieval fighting aspects will bring in the guys.

    If I am wrong, I likely missed on one of the kids flicks (Madagascar 3 - trailers looked awful; or Ice Age 4 - comes late in the schedule and the franchise is more of an international phenomenon than a domestic one... these movies make 3x overseas what they do in the US). The other thing I might have gotten wrong is Snow White and the Huntsman, which is tracking through the roof with women and has enough of a mystical/action element to draw in the guys too. I sorta wonder if all the women who get dragged to Avengers by their husbands/boyfriends will want to go to Huntsman as payback. I am quite surprised that film has not gotten more support in our poll.

    I don't think any of the rest are really strong contenders. They all seem to me to have a fatal flaw or two that limits the audience. Some of them are concepts that cannot draw a broad audience, some of them come at bad times that make it almost impossible to get to $225 million. At least, that is how I see it.

    Of course, most of these films are pretty much unknowns at this point and we see every year how a well-reviewed, crowd-pleasing film can do much bigger business than expected. There could easily be a Wedding Crashers, 40 Year Old Virgin, Hangover, Bridesmaids, or Rise of the Planet of the Apes out there this summer that I have totally discounted but rises up to be a major boxoffice player. Heck, the odds favor that happening a lot more than they favor a reasonably predictable summer. That is why it is almost impossible to go 5-for-5 in this poll.

    -Jason "Avengers could easily do $160+ million this weekend... I won't be shocked if it breaks records" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  10. #50

    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Well, I finally voted.

    Dark Knight Rises
    Avengers
    Amazing Spider-Man
    Men In Black 3
    Brave

    I was all set to vote for Prometheus, but when I saw the latest trailer it screamed creepy sci-fi horror at me and I think it will have real trouble finding a wide enough audience for that kind of movie to make the $225 mil or so that it is likely to take to reach the Top 5. Women and adults are not into those kind of movies. I also think it seems set to get an R rating (though Scott says he is trying to make it PG-13). An R-rated sci-fi horror film will not make $200+ million. Not gonna happen. From a boxoffice standpoint, R works fine if you are a raunchy adult comedy, but not if you are a gory horror film.

    So, to the films I picked...

    Dark Knight and Avengers are mortal locks. Anyone who did not pick them has already lost. It is just a fact people.

    I think Avengers will be so good that it will excite people about comic book movies again and that will help Spider-man. I also think the Spider-man franchise is pretty much bulletproof. He is such a hugely popular pop culture character. There will be kids in Spider-man pajamas seeing this movie. The movie would have to be just godawful to not do $250 million and the buzz is fairly positive so I think this one will be fine.

    MIB 3 is an established franchise, but (more importantly) it is Will Smith. Smith is the biggest star on the planet. He is popular with men and women, African-Americans and Caucasians, young and old. He could read the phone book on screen for 2 hours and the movie would make money. My only hesitation is that Will has not been on screen in like 4 years and some of his star may have faded. But, this is an established franchise with a large built-in audience as a result. I could be wrong about this one. The reviews could be bad (director Barry Sonnefeld has done stinkers in the past) and it could stall in the $180 mil territory, but it seemed like a safer bet than some of the other choices.

    Finally, there is Brave. Never bet against Pixar! The trailers and clips for Brave look good and I like its position on the calendar as well as the competition around it. I think the strong female character will bring in the girls and the mystical, medieval fighting aspects will bring in the guys.

    If I am wrong, I likely missed on one of the kids flicks (Madagascar 3 - trailers looked awful; or Ice Age 4 - comes late in the schedule and the franchise is more of an international phenomenon than a domestic one... these movies make 3x overseas what they do in the US). The other thing I might have gotten wrong is Snow White and the Huntsman, which is tracking through the roof with women and has enough of a mystical/action element to draw in the guys too. I sorta wonder if all the women who get dragged to Avengers by their husbands/boyfriends will want to go to Huntsman as payback. I am quite surprised that film has not gotten more support in our poll.

    I don't think any of the rest are really strong contenders. They all seem to me to have a fatal flaw or two that limits the audience. Some of them are concepts that cannot draw a broad audience, some of them come at bad times that make it almost impossible to get to $225 million. At least, that is how I see it.

    Of course, most of these films are pretty much unknowns at this point and we see every year how a well-reviewed, crowd-pleasing film can do much bigger business than expected. There could easily be a Wedding Crashers, 40 Year Old Virgin, Hangover, Bridesmaids, or Rise of the Planet of the Apes out there this summer that I have totally discounted but rises up to be a major boxoffice player. Heck, the odds favor that happening a lot more than they favor a reasonably predictable summer. That is why it is almost impossible to go 5-for-5 in this poll.

    -Jason "Avengers could easily do $160+ million this weekend... I won't be shocked if it breaks records" Evans
    Oh, all your high minded excuses, when, really, you were just waiting for me to vote so you could copy me, eh, Jason?
    LET'S GO DUKE!

  11. #51
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    JE: Love your picks. Love them!!!! (note, the fact that they are identical to mine has nothing to do with that fact...nothing at all).

    Some additional comments:

    Avengers is going to crush it this weekend. Look no further than rotten tomatoes, where it currently is at 95% fresh. That is a huge number for a comic book movie. Huge.

    JE: Don't worry about The Huntsman....it's not going to contend. Not even close. Why not? I think people are a little Snow White'ed Out. You have Once Upon a Time (great TV series, by the way). You just had Julia Robert's snow white movie. Now you get this one. My wife and I were at a movie and saw this preview and she looked at me afterwards and said, "That looks awful!" She's pretty good at judging movies from the trailer (shockingly good, actually). This movie will be lucky to break $125M, and that won't be nearly good enough.

    Agree with you completely that the people who miss out will do so because of a kid's flick. I think Spiderman, Dark Knight, Avengers and MIB will all be there, and the last will be either Brave, Madagascar or Ice Age. Here's hoping it's Brave.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    Agree with you completely that the people who miss out will do so because of a kid's flick. I think Spiderman, Dark Knight, Avengers and MIB will all be there, and the last will be either Brave, Madagascar or Ice Age. Here's hoping it's Brave.
    Unless Prometheus comes in at PG-13. If it does, I'll be very worried that it is more sci-fi and less horror which would spell probably 15-20% higher boxoffice.

    --Jason "but I think that is highly unlikely" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  13. #53
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    those touting MIB3, have you seen the trailers? Will Smith goes back to the 60s. How will that bring in the teenage crowd?

    That said, I found my 17 yo step-daughter watching a "Fresh Prince" rerun, and she said the show was "The Sh**" - a high compliment indeed. Will still has some currency.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    those touting MIB3, have you seen the trailers? Will Smith goes back to the 60s. How will that bring in the teenage crowd?

    That said, I found my 17 yo step-daughter watching a "Fresh Prince" rerun, and she said the show was "The Sh**" - a high compliment indeed. Will still has some currency.
    My 12-year-old and 15-year-old have both seen MIB and MIB II on DVD and cable and love them. They are very excited for this movie.

    As I said above, Will Smith is still a huge star who's appeal cuts across many demographics. That said, this is a risky pick because of the rumored script problems. I mean, good god, they started shooting before they had a finished script! The odds of this movie being a mess are pretty darn high. In fact, with every day that goes by, I more and more wish I had picked Promethus ahead of this flick.

    -Jason "all that said, betting against Will Smith on the 4th of July... no thanks" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "all that said, betting against Will Smith on the 4th of July... no thanks" Evans
    Good thing I only bet against him on Memorial Day this year!

    Are you going to an advance screening for MIB3, and if so, when? I haven't seen any early reviews for it yet, and I looked online for a little bit, but the earliest advance screenings I could find anywhere were for 5/22 and 5/23 (for a 5/25 release). Now, I might just not have the inside hookup that you critics have. But if a studio is holding off advance screenings until just before it's released, is that generally a bad sign for a blockbuster these days? I seem to remember a fairly recent movie (Skyline, perhaps?) that pushed back its advance screenings, and critics said that signaled that the studio probably had a real stinker on its hands and didn't want the bad word of mouth sinking it beforehand. But I'm not sure if there's anything to that angle in general (or if it's a studio-by-studio, or genre-by-genre, or picture-by-picture type of thing). FWIW, Battleship had reviews over 5 weeks before its release, and it looks like reviews for The Avengers started popping up 6-7 weeks before its release. And here we are, 3 weeks before MIB3, and no reviews yet.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    Good thing I only bet against him on Memorial Day this year.
    Yeah, I got my holidays confused. Amazing Spider-man is the July 4th movie this year. By the way, they just released a new trailer for that film. The past couple trailers had me somewhat skeptical but this new one is quite strong. They are clearly exploring new ground with the character by making this film about the fate of his parents. I approve! I feel a lot better about my Spider-man pick after seeing this.

    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    Are you going to an advance screening for MIB3, and if so, when? I haven't seen any early reviews for it yet, and I looked online for a little bit, but the earliest advance screenings I could find anywhere were for 5/22 and 5/23 (for a 5/25 release). Now, I might just not have the inside hookup that you critics have. But if a studio is holding off advance screenings until just before it's released, is that generally a bad sign for a blockbuster these days? I seem to remember a fairly recent movie (Skyline, perhaps?) that pushed back its advance screenings, and critics said that signaled that the studio probably had a real stinker on its hands and didn't want the bad word of mouth sinking it beforehand. But I'm not sure if there's anything to that angle in general (or if it's a studio-by-studio, or genre-by-genre, or picture-by-picture type of thing). FWIW, Battleship had reviews over 5 weeks before its release, and it looks like reviews for The Avengers started popping up 6-7 weeks before its release. And here we are, 3 weeks before MIB3, and no reviews yet.
    I have not heard when the advance screening of MIB3 will be, but all indications are it will be fairly close to the release date of the film. I agree that this is not a great sign. It is not a fatal sign, but it is something about which to be a bit concerned. The best explanation I have is that the film has been up against a very tough production deadline to make its release date (which is why they started filming before the script was finished) and they probably were not able to schedule screenings at their leisure because they are still putting final polishing touches on the film.

    -Jason "I dunno... I am concerned about this pick more than some others, that's for sure" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  17. #57
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    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3436&p=.htm

    Boxofficemojo's assessment of the midnight showing numbers for Avengers, with their projection being a $160+ opening weekend. I put it in this thread since it's purely a numbers article, not a post-viewing reaction article.

    Whether this movie ends up in the $300s or crosses past $400 depends entirely on word of mouth and repeat viewing. From the post-viewing thread, the critics, and the general fan reaction, the studio can hope for some very significant repeat business, I would guess even holding up after Battleship releases.

    I think I guessed $350-$400 in the relevant thread. My gut is telling me it ends up north of $400.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  18. #58
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    Boxofficemojo.com updated for Friday. Avengers opened at 80.5 million on Friday, just shy of the Harry Potter (Deathly Hallows part 2) opening day record, but with midnight showings accounting for signicantly less of the Avengers opening day haul. Not counting the midnight showings, Avengers $61.8M during the day Friday, the previous record being $49.8 million. I can't pretend to understand how the projections all work out, but boxofficemojo is now guaranteeing that Avengers will break Harry Potter (Deathly Hallows part 2 again) record of $169.2 million...and is even suggesting that $200 million might not be out of reach. Stay tuned, kids.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  19. #59
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    $200.3 million

    Ummm, that's a lot of tickets sold.

    -Jason "we have one of our top 5... heck, I think we now know what THE #1 movie of summer will be" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  20. #60
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    JE - as I said Friday, I think this movie ends up at $600M.

    It's a great movie. It will have tremendous word of mouth. It's already received a ton of critical praise (95% on rotten tomatoes). Now with this opening, people who might not have wanted to see it, will go see it just so they can understand what all the fuss is about.

    I saw it Friday. I'm seeing it again Tuesday. I'm seeing it again next weekend. I NEVER do that.

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