Here is a good article written by Luke Wynn of SI who performed a study on this as well. He takes a look at not only college transfers but also high school transfers and how the two relate. The numbers show that kids who bounce around several high schools are far more likely to transfer from their college choice vs kids who attended only one high school
Link to the article
Here is a table from the article
The rising trend of high school transferring splits of top-100 recruits, 2007-2011
Class One HS Multiple HS Avg. # of HS 2007 74% 26% 1.37 2008 66% 34% 1.42% 2009 59% 41% 1.57 2010 53% 47% 1.67 2011 53% 47% 1.69
As for College transfers, for several years now, the number of transfers each year has been in the neighborhood of 300-350. It's a common theme and Duke is not immune. Reasons vary of course, but it is interesting to see the data. If a kid attend multiple high schools, they are a higher risk to transfer in college than their peers who attended one high school.
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Thanks for the link, Newton_14. This is just the info I was looking for. Very good stuff.
I knew all you guys would have some interesting things to say to my inquiry. I wonder what solutions, if any are even possible, college basketball could look at should this issue become an even greater worry in the coming years. One-&-dones and transfers really can wreak avok for a program, especially the elite ones, particularly regarding continuity in player rosters. Teams like our championship unit in 2010, with 3 seniors and 2 juniors starting, may be near impossible to put together, or at least very rarely done.
-Son of Jarhead
The Duke fan formerly known as BuschDevil
I think Mason will have a good shot next year at being like Nolan here, as he averaged 14 or so minutes his freshman year, and will hopefully (after a stellar senior campaign next year) get picked in the first round. This makes me wonder if there could be a good study done of data following NBA players and their increased minutes/production through out their college years, and what that study would find. I imagine we'd see Coach K among the best coaches at "developing" their players. -Ha! Take that, negative-recruiter-man!- Of course having more players in th league now helps increase K's odds, but still, it would be facinating to look at.
-Son of Jarhead
The Duke fan formerly known as BuschDevil
I would say with the lockout, you might have some skewed data since many people opted to stay in school In 2010, you had Lazar Hayward at 16.3 minutes, Daniel Orton (13.2 minutes), Jordan Crawford (25 minutes), Quincy Pondexter (24 minutes), Trevor Booker/Damion James (26 minutes), EWill (16.6 minutes), Larry Sanders (16.6 minutes), Ed Davis (18.8 minutes), Cole Aldrich (8.3 minutes), Ekpe Udoh (20.3 minutes).
So certainly it is troubling if you don't play much and you'd also have to look at who played above these guys. But one thing to note is that in two years, it happened to two Duke guys (and could easily happen to Mason, happened to Henderson and Shelden as well) which goes along with the whole idea that K tends to not rely on freshmen as much whether its trust or the fact he has so much upper-class talent already. As many have alluded to, when Olek or Boateng transferred it was more of a hope they succeed b/c it was evident they would not play, but with G it seems more like an E-Will transfer where he could have very easily helped the team out next year. Perhaps I'm wrong and Murphy and our recruitment of Parker show a bright future but Gbinije filled a need.
"justify", no; motivate, perhaps (sadly). I sincerely hope that the bulk of the 300+ transfers are doing so for non-NBA career reasons. A lot of such reasons are possible and it might actually be a good thing (leaving a bastard coach, etc.). If 300 kids think they are one of three, then the self awareness of the college basketball players is even worse than I suspected.
Thanks much for the valuable numbers.
Important to note the number here, relative to there being 347 (quick Google search result) DI schools. At 300 transfers a year, each school has approximately 1 transfer per year, so although people may start freaking out that we're losing so many players (Gbinije, Czyz, Williams, King, Boateng, Boykins...), we're just in the norm.