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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Here is a good article written by Luke Wynn of SI who performed a study on this as well. He takes a look at not only college transfers but also high school transfers and how the two relate. The numbers show that kids who bounce around several high schools are far more likely to transfer from their college choice vs kids who attended only one high school
    Link to the article

    Here is a table from the article

    The rising trend of high school transferring splits of top-100 recruits, 2007-2011
    Class One HS Multiple HS Avg. # of HS
    2007 74% 26% 1.37
    2008 66% 34% 1.42%
    2009 59% 41% 1.57
    2010 53% 47% 1.67
    2011 53% 47% 1.69

    As for College transfers, for several years now, the number of transfers each year has been in the neighborhood of 300-350. It's a common theme and Duke is not immune. Reasons vary of course, but it is interesting to see the data. If a kid attend multiple high schools, they are a higher risk to transfer in college than their peers who attended one high school.

  2. #22
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    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by dyedwab View Post
    Really nice research, Kedsy. I'm a bit surprised by the conclusion, but that's the beauty of evidence. It lets you react to something.
    That post is more evidence of why the software won't let me give Kedsy any more positive spork feedback than I already have.

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  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Newton_14 View Post
    Here is a good article written by Luke Wynn of SI who performed a study on this as well. He takes a look at not only college transfers but also high school transfers and how the two relate. The numbers show that kids who bounce around several high schools are far more likely to transfer from their college choice vs kids who attended only one high school
    Link to the article

    Here is a table from the article

    The rising trend of high school transferring splits of top-100 recruits, 2007-2011
    Class One HS Multiple HS Avg. # of HS
    2007 74% 26% 1.37
    2008 66% 34% 1.42%
    2009 59% 41% 1.57
    2010 53% 47% 1.67
    2011 53% 47% 1.69

    As for College transfers, for several years now, the number of transfers each year has been in the neighborhood of 300-350. It's a common theme and Duke is not immune. Reasons vary of course, but it is interesting to see the data. If a kid attend multiple high schools, they are a higher risk to transfer in college than their peers who attended one high school.
    Thanks for the link, Newton_14. This is just the info I was looking for. Very good stuff.

    I knew all you guys would have some interesting things to say to my inquiry. I wonder what solutions, if any are even possible, college basketball could look at should this issue become an even greater worry in the coming years. One-&-dones and transfers really can wreak avok for a program, especially the elite ones, particularly regarding continuity in player rosters. Teams like our championship unit in 2010, with 3 seniors and 2 juniors starting, may be near impossible to put together, or at least very rarely done.
    -Son of Jarhead

    The Duke fan formerly known as BuschDevil

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

    Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
    MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
    Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

    * - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


    What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

    If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.
    I think Mason will have a good shot next year at being like Nolan here, as he averaged 14 or so minutes his freshman year, and will hopefully (after a stellar senior campaign next year) get picked in the first round. This makes me wonder if there could be a good study done of data following NBA players and their increased minutes/production through out their college years, and what that study would find. I imagine we'd see Coach K among the best coaches at "developing" their players. -Ha! Take that, negative-recruiter-man!- Of course having more players in th league now helps increase K's odds, but still, it would be facinating to look at.
    -Son of Jarhead

    The Duke fan formerly known as BuschDevil

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

    Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
    MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
    Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

    * - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


    What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

    If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.
    I would say with the lockout, you might have some skewed data since many people opted to stay in school In 2010, you had Lazar Hayward at 16.3 minutes, Daniel Orton (13.2 minutes), Jordan Crawford (25 minutes), Quincy Pondexter (24 minutes), Trevor Booker/Damion James (26 minutes), EWill (16.6 minutes), Larry Sanders (16.6 minutes), Ed Davis (18.8 minutes), Cole Aldrich (8.3 minutes), Ekpe Udoh (20.3 minutes).

    So certainly it is troubling if you don't play much and you'd also have to look at who played above these guys. But one thing to note is that in two years, it happened to two Duke guys (and could easily happen to Mason, happened to Henderson and Shelden as well) which goes along with the whole idea that K tends to not rely on freshmen as much whether its trust or the fact he has so much upper-class talent already. As many have alluded to, when Olek or Boateng transferred it was more of a hope they succeed b/c it was evident they would not play, but with G it seems more like an E-Will transfer where he could have very easily helped the team out next year. Perhaps I'm wrong and Murphy and our recruitment of Parker show a bright future but Gbinije filled a need.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

    Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
    MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
    Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

    * - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


    What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

    If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.
    Googs got 8.1 mpg as a freshman. More recently, Cole Aldrich got 8.3 mpg as a freshman (and was drafted 11th in 2010 draft). Just more evidence in support of your findings... and even then, these guys did actually get off the bench a little.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Rochester, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Sometimes, a picture speaks 1,000 words; sometimes, it only requires 98.

    and 1. Thank you Mr. Corey.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Rochester, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Of those picked in the first round of the 2011 NBA draft, only three players played in college and got fewer than 30 minutes a game* as a freshman:

    Nikola Vucevic (23 at USC)
    MarShon Brooks (18 at Providence)
    Nolan Smith (15 at Duke)

    * - I think someone else got 29+ mpg as a freshman, but I can't remember who and I'm lumping him in with the 30+ guys.


    What this says to me is if someone is transferring because he thinks he's an NBA player but he couldn't get off the bench his freshman year, there's a really good chance he's wrong.

    If he's transferring because he can't get off the bench but he just wants to play more, or some personal reason or he doesn't get along with his coach or his teammates, that's a completely different story, but someone who barely plays as a frosh and then becomes an NBA first round pick is a rarity. I'm sure it happens occasionally (Tom Gugliotta comes to mind), but not very often, and not nearly enough to justify 300+ transfers a year.
    "justify", no; motivate, perhaps (sadly). I sincerely hope that the bulk of the 300+ transfers are doing so for non-NBA career reasons. A lot of such reasons are possible and it might actually be a good thing (leaving a bastard coach, etc.). If 300 kids think they are one of three, then the self awareness of the college basketball players is even worse than I suspected.

    Thanks much for the valuable numbers.

  9. #29
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newton_14 View Post
    As for College transfers, for several years now, the number of transfers each year has been in the neighborhood of 300-350.
    Important to note the number here, relative to there being 347 (quick Google search result) DI schools. At 300 transfers a year, each school has approximately 1 transfer per year, so although people may start freaking out that we're losing so many players (Gbinije, Czyz, Williams, King, Boateng, Boykins...), we're just in the norm.

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