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  1. #341
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I think Rivers probably had his eye on the NBA but as Doc's son I don't think he is as susceptible to the influence of "handlers" as much as John Wall and Bazz. I also think it is reasonable that he actually will obtain his degree from Duke while playing in the NBA. I think AR was coachable and "all in" for this past season even though he probably hoped and felt he was one and done all along. When players start following their HS or AAU coaches or shoe companies then I get nervous and would rather Duke just stay away and concentrate on developing student athletes.

    My rule of thumb is that if a player would likely be a lottery pick coming out of HS then he's probably not a good recruit for Duke. I don't think that was true of Kyrie, Austin or Deng but it is probably is true for Bazz. So I'm glad Bazz didn't come to Duke but I'll hate to see Mike in another uniform.
    The second Kyrie stepped on campus, it was assumed he was not going to stay more than a year. Our coaches realized that he would be wasting his time being at Duke for more than a year. They took him because he was a great kid who completely bought into the team concept for the year he was at Duke, and wasn't at Duke solely to bide his time and showcase himself for the league, like many other one-and-dones do.

  2. #342
    Quote Originally Posted by Monmouth77 View Post
    I think there is a good chance Kyrie Irving would have been a lottery pick coming out of high school. He was the #1 overall pick after playing only a small handful of college games.

    I do hear your point about following AAU coaches. But if a guy is doing that, he's not coming to Duke.
    I thought Kyrie's stock rose more after he proved what he could do against college competition. At the time he commited to Duke I do not think he was thought of as a lottery pick. At that time I think Brandon Knight was still ranked ahead of him for instance but I could be wrong. It's possible that lottery team would have taken him but I don't think it was a slam dunk. When he committed I imagine that he though he needed to get better and prove himself before making the jump. In my mind that is different that someone who just needs a place to be for a year.

  3. #343
    Join Date
    May 2010
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    Triad, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    The day I forget Austin's shot against UNC is the day my box goes into the ground.
    Totally agree. I will remember Kyrie because I see him being an NBA All-Star in 10 years, and will remember Austin's shot from the restless replays ESPN will show at least twice a year when Duke plays Unc-ch. Neither of these two will be soon forgotten.

  4. #344
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
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    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    UCLA fans will most likely not remember much about Shabazz in ten years, but I bet in a decade the fans of the school that MG picks will have lots of memories with stories to back it up.
    I assure you Syracuse fans still have lots of memories of Carmelo. Whether UCLA fans remember Shabazz depends on how much he accomplishes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    Maybe we can point to other instances where a one-and-done guy helped put an already talented team over the edge and win a championship. I can't come up with one.
    I hate to mention it, but Marvin Williams in 2005 springs to mind pretty quickly. Derrick Rose would have been in 2008 if not for missed FTs, and of course if not for the subsequent vacating of his team's wins. Add those to Carmelo in 2003 and Deng in 2004 and Kevin Love in 2008 (and even Kentucky in 2012 and 2011, although in those cases it was more than one one-and-done guy) and it seems to happen fairly regularly (although obviously several of those guys "almost" won championships as opposed to actually winning one).

    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    My rule of thumb is that if a player would likely be a lottery pick coming out of HS then he's probably not a good recruit for Duke. I don't think that was true of Kyrie, Austin or Deng but it is probably is true for Bazz.
    All three of those guys were considered likely lottery picks coming out of high school. Luol Deng was the #2 recruit in the country (#1 was LeBron); Kyrie was also the #2 recruit and expected to be one-and-done from the moment he stepped on campus. Austin was also the #2 recruit and expected to be one-and-done from the moment he chose to attend Duke.

  5. #345

    IIRC

    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I thought Kyrie's stock rose more after he proved what he could do against college competition. At the time he commited to Duke I do not think he was thought of as a lottery pick. At that time I think Brandon Knight was still ranked ahead of him for instance but I could be wrong. It's possible that lottery team would have taken him but I don't think it was a slam dunk. When he committed I imagine that he though he needed to get better and prove himself before making the jump. In my mind that is different that someone who just needs a place to be for a year.
    If anyone seemed to be a one and done, it was Barnes. And that was according to all the so-called experts IIRC.

    I think the consensus was that Kyrie wasn't quite as good as the Pigeon, but Duke was desperate for a point guard, so they definitely got the guy they needed. Then I remember reading before the season started that Kyrie was really good, better than anyone expected, which kind of reminded me of the early buzz surrounding Elton Brand as a freshman. No matter what, his success and his injury probably sealed the deal. I don't think that Kyrie could have risked another freak injury before he signed a fat contract, which is definitely different from just hanging around for a year.

  6. #346
    Quote Originally Posted by miramar View Post
    If anyone seemed to be a one and done, it was Barnes. And that was according to all the so-called experts IIRC.

    I think the consensus was that Kyrie wasn't quite as good as the Pigeon, but Duke was desperate for a point guard, so they definitely got the guy they needed. Then I remember reading before the season started that Kyrie was really good, better than anyone expected, which kind of reminded me of the early buzz surrounding Elton Brand as a freshman. No matter what, his success and his injury probably sealed the deal. I don't think that Kyrie could have risked another freak injury before he signed a fat contract, which is definitely different from just hanging around for a year.
    Irving was the #2 or #3 prospect in everyone's rankings by the time his senior year ended and there was definitely talk of one-and-done possibility before he left high school. That said, he was absolutely as much a part of the team as anybody, even with the injury. But I think people figured there was a really good chance that all 3 of Barnes, Irving, and Sullinger were one-and-one possiblities.

  7. #347
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    All three of those guys were considered likely lottery picks coming out of high school. Luol Deng was the #2 recruit in the country (#1 was LeBron); Kyrie was also the #2 recruit and expected to be one-and-done from the moment he stepped on campus. Austin was also the #2 recruit and expected to be one-and-done from the moment he chose to attend Duke.
    To clarify I meant that I don't think those 3 would have been lottery picks immediately out of HS not that it wasn't thought that they would eventually be lottery picks. Deng obviously wasn't a lottery pick out of HS or he wouldn't have come to Duke to begin with. It's already been said that his stock rose more than he expected after his only year. I don't know if Rivers is a slam dunk lottery pick this year but he almost certainly would not have been last year. Ditto for Kyrie IMO at least at the point when he commited to Duke. I remember his stock rose dramitically during the all star games after his senior year and even more once he showed what he could do against college comp but had he been eligible out of HS I don't think he would have been a slam dunk lottery pick. I'm not an NBA expert by any means so I could be completely off on Irving but that is my best guess.

  8. #348
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I assure you Syracuse fans still have lots of memories of Carmelo. Whether UCLA fans remember Shabazz depends on how much he accomplishes.



    I hate to mention it, but Marvin Williams in 2005 springs to mind pretty quickly. Derrick Rose would have been in 2008 if not for missed FTs, and of course if not for the subsequent vacating of his team's wins. Add those to Carmelo in 2003 and Deng in 2004 and Kevin Love in 2008 (and even Kentucky in 2012 and 2011, although in those cases it was more than one one-and-done guy) and it seems to happen fairly regularly (although obviously several of those guys "almost" won championships as opposed to actually winning one).



    All three of those guys were considered likely lottery picks coming out of high school. Luol Deng was the #2 recruit in the country (#1 was LeBron); Kyrie was also the #2 recruit and expected to be one-and-done from the moment he stepped on campus. Austin was also the #2 recruit and expected to be one-and-done from the moment he chose to attend Duke.
    Marvin Williams had less to do with that championship than the rest of that team. They had McCants, Felton, Sean May, Jawad Williams... Marvin was the 4th leading scorer on the team.

    I'd argue that if Marvin didn't have so much help, he wouldn't have been able to leave as easily after one year.

  9. #349
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Correct side of the Durham/CH border
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I hate to mention it, but Marvin Williams in 2005 springs to mind pretty quickly. Derrick Rose would have been in 2008 if not for missed FTs, and of course if not for the subsequent vacating of his team's wins. Add those to Carmelo in 2003 and Deng in 2004 and Kevin Love in 2008 (and even Kentucky in 2012 and 2011, although in those cases it was more than one one-and-done guy) and it seems to happen fairly regularly (although obviously several of those guys "almost" won championships as opposed to actually winning one).
    Well, I think you have a point with Derrick Rose. And holding the standard of measurement to winning a championship is probably not totally fair. But Marvin Williams joined a pretty loaded UNC squad. As did Luol here at Duke and Love at UCLA. Which was my point... one-and-dones added to an existing strong talent base is not a bad recipe for short term success if you can pull it off. But there are far more one-and-dones who, operating without tons of other consistent, strong support, simply can't carry a team to dramatic heights. Sure there are examples like Stephen Curry. But I think we're actually making basically the same point here - maybe we just don't realize it. Anyway...

  10. #350
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    Well, I think you have a point with Derrick Rose. And holding the standard of measurement to winning a championship is probably not totally fair. But Marvin Williams joined a pretty loaded UNC squad. As did Luol here at Duke and Love at UCLA. Which was my point... one-and-dones added to an existing strong talent base is not a bad recipe for short term success if you can pull it off. But there are far more one-and-dones who, operating without tons of other consistent, strong support, simply can't carry a team to dramatic heights. Sure there are examples like Stephen Curry. But I think we're actually making basically the same point here - maybe we just don't realize it. Anyway...
    Deng joined a solid-but-not-great-yet team. Not a loaded team. Take Deng away from Duke in 2004 and we're a Sweet-16 caliber team (like the year before but without Dahntay Jones).

    Take Love away from that UCLA team and they probably aren't a Final Four team either. That team (with Afflalo) overachieved to reach the Final Four in 2007. They added Love (their best player) and he made them a true championship caliber team.

  11. #351
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    To clarify I meant that I don't think those 3 would have been lottery picks immediately out of HS not that it wasn't thought that they would eventually be lottery picks. Deng obviously wasn't a lottery pick out of HS or he wouldn't have come to Duke to begin with. It's already been said that his stock rose more than he expected after his only year. I don't know if Rivers is a slam dunk lottery pick this year but he almost certainly would not have been last year. Ditto for Kyrie IMO at least at the point when he commited to Duke. I remember his stock rose dramitically during the all star games after his senior year and even more once he showed what he could do against college comp but had he been eligible out of HS I don't think he would have been a slam dunk lottery pick. I'm not an NBA expert by any means so I could be completely off on Irving but that is my best guess.
    Deng was the top rated player of everyone who went to college that season. If he wasn't lottery coming out of high school, then nobody would have been (other than LeBron). My impression was he decided to go to college because he wanted to, not because he didn't think he'd be a lottery pick. I believe that before he played a minute for Duke, most people thought he could be one and done if he wanted to be.

    Austin said publicly that he hoped to be one and done. My guess is he had a better chance of being a lottery pick coming out of high school than he does now.

    Finally, regarding Kyrie, I have heard from reliable sources that he expected to be one and done when he arrived at Duke. Which means he expected to be a lottery pick. Whether that expectation was realistic, who can say for certain, but having watched him in his first few games I believe it was.

  12. #352
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    To clarify I meant that I don't think those 3 would have been lottery picks immediately out of HS not that it wasn't thought that they would eventually be lottery picks. Deng obviously wasn't a lottery pick out of HS or he wouldn't have come to Duke to begin with. It's already been said that his stock rose more than he expected after his only year. I don't know if Rivers is a slam dunk lottery pick this year but he almost certainly would not have been last year. Ditto for Kyrie IMO at least at the point when he commited to Duke. I remember his stock rose dramitically during the all star games after his senior year and even more once he showed what he could do against college comp but had he been eligible out of HS I don't think he would have been a slam dunk lottery pick. I'm not an NBA expert by any means so I could be completely off on Irving but that is my best guess.
    Your memory is pretty faulty in all these cases. You can just look back at the online caches of sites like DraftExpress or NBADraft.net to see. Deng was listed as a top 5 pick in 2004 immediately after the 2003 draft. Irving was projected as a top 10 pick in 2011 at the time he committed and moved up to a top 5 pick after the all star games. Rivers was thought of as a top 10 pick throughout his senior year. He actually hurt his draft stock with his year at Duke.

  13. #353
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    Well, I think you have a point with Derrick Rose. And holding the standard of measurement to winning a championship is probably not totally fair. But Marvin Williams joined a pretty loaded UNC squad. As did Luol here at Duke and Love at UCLA. Which was my point... one-and-dones added to an existing strong talent base is not a bad recipe for short term success if you can pull it off. But there are far more one-and-dones who, operating without tons of other consistent, strong support, simply can't carry a team to dramatic heights. Sure there are examples like Stephen Curry. But I think we're actually making basically the same point here - maybe we just don't realize it. Anyway...
    I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but again, it's not about short term success. It's about the best chance at continued success. Duke's 2010 team shows that, even in the one-and-done era, you don't necessarily have to have a mega-talented freshman or high-lottery talent to win it all. But that team was a function of guys staying around and finally meeting their top potential after years of struggling and losing top talent to the draft.

    The argument for recruiting elite guys whose Duke careers will be short-lived (maybe even only a season long) is to add them each year to the core of talent that is hopefully locked in for the long haul. If this happens each year (or every other year) then Duke has a better chance to win on a continued basis. That's why Coach K recruits some of these guys-- ones he think will fit in and make the team a heavyweight contender.

    With respect to Austin Rivers, I think one thing that gets overlooked is that he was added to a position of surplus-- not one of need. The "chemistry" problems that people often allude to (which as far as I know are totally unsubstantiated), the idea that his teammates just stood around and "watched Austin play," and the criticism in this thread-- i.e., using Austin as an example of a "one-and-done" player who does not guarantee succeess, all seem to be looking past what was the real problem last season: lack of positional balance.

    I think we will find out that Austin has NBA-lottery justified talent. He just brought it to a team last year that already had several shooting guards, and which, though it benefited from Austin's ability to create off the dribble (where he will make a living in the NBA) did not have a first class wing defender or a shotblocker or a play-making point guard. If we had Davis or MKG or Kyrie or Shabazz last year-- ie. a top talent at a position of need -- the season may have looked a little different at the end.

    Anyway, recruiting is an art not a science. I just disagree with the idea that Duke cannot or should not recruit top talent because that somehow diminishes the culture or "it won't work out anyway." I think those sentiments are misplaced. Ask yourself whether Bobby Hurley or Grant Hill might be one-and-dones or two-and-dones in 2012. Would you not have us recruit them?

  14. #354
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Deng was the top rated player of everyone who went to college that season. If he wasn't lottery coming out of high school, then nobody would have been (other than LeBron). My impression was he decided to go to college because he wanted to, not because he didn't think he'd be a lottery pick. I believe that before he played a minute for Duke, most people thought he could be one and done if he wanted to be.

    Austin said publicly that he hoped to be one and done. My guess is he had a better chance of being a lottery pick coming out of high school than he does now.

    Finally, regarding Kyrie, I have heard from reliable sources that he expected to be one and done when he arrived at Duke. Which means he expected to be a lottery pick. Whether that expectation was realistic, who can say for certain, but having watched him in his first few games I believe it was.
    My original comment was about prospects who were good enough to be lottery picks directly out of HS. I did not say anything about players who hoped to be one and done. If Deng was a lottery pick out of HS it would make no sense that his draft position after one year rose more than even he expected as others have said. Also why would his relatives have waited a year to pressure him to take the money if he could have taken it out of HS? I remember that there was a big gap in the percieved talent of the #1 rated HS player - LeBron and the #2 player - Deng. Again if he was as coveted out of HS as after one year why come to Duke at all? I don't think AR as skinny 2 guard was regarded highly enough to have been a lottery pick out of HS either and it would make no sense after the season he had as Duke's best player for his draft position to have been downgraded. I see Kyrie as a little different because he is a point guard which is a more coveted position but I still don't think, at the time he commited to Duke, that he would have been considered a slam dunk lottery pick if he had been eligilble to go out.

  15. #355
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Per reports, Mike G has drawn interest from Memphis, Tennessee, Rutgers, Villanova, and Marquette.

    http://www.zagsblog.com/2012/04/27/d...wing-interest/

  16. #356
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    My original comment was about prospects who were good enough to be lottery picks directly out of HS. I did not say anything about players who hoped to be one and done. If Deng was a lottery pick out of HS it would make no sense that his draft position after one year rose more than even he expected as others have said. Also why would his relatives have waited a year to pressure him to take the money if he could have taken it out of HS? I remember that there was a big gap in the percieved talent of the #1 rated HS player - LeBron and the #2 player - Deng. Again if he was as coveted out of HS as after one year why come to Duke at all? I don't think AR as skinny 2 guard was regarded highly enough to have been a lottery pick out of HS either and it would make no sense after the season he had as Duke's best player for his draft position to have been downgraded. I see Kyrie as a little different because he is a point guard which is a more coveted position but I still don't think, at the time he commited to Duke, that he would have been considered a slam dunk lottery pick if he had been eligilble to go out.
    At the time he committed to Duke is very different from when he would have been eligible for the draft. Irving committed before his senior season. During his senior year, his stock soared to the point that by April he was considered the #2 or #3 prospect in the country. All of Barnes, Sullinger, Irving, and Knight would have been lottery picks straight out of high school.

    Deng would have also been a lottery pick. He was the #2 recruit in the country. He wasn't a threat to James as the #1 recruit, but he'd have gone ahead guys like Jarvis Hayes and Mikael Pietrus.

    And Rivers would have been a mid-1st round pick, too. Probably not high lottery pick, but when you're the #2 recruit in the country, someone's going to take you in the top 15 or 20 picks.

  17. #357
    Kyrie said that if he hadn't come back and played in the NCAA tournament he would not have left at the end of last year...

  18. #358
    Quote Originally Posted by Double DD View Post
    Your memory is pretty faulty in all these cases. You can just look back at the online caches of sites like DraftExpress or NBADraft.net to see. Deng was listed as a top 5 pick in 2004 immediately after the 2003 draft. Irving was projected as a top 10 pick in 2011 at the time he committed and moved up to a top 5 pick after the all star games. Rivers was thought of as a top 10 pick throughout his senior year. He actually hurt his draft stock with his year at Duke.
    I wasn't able to find any online caches from those site. Perhaps you can provide a link? If what you say is accurate then we are doomed because NBA executives are morons and they should rightly protect themselves from their own stupidity for ever more. The idea that Rivers was more highly though of as a senior at Winter Park than after his All ACC year at Duke cannot be rationally justified.

  19. #359
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    At the time he committed to Duke is very different from when he would have been eligible for the draft. Irving committed before his senior season. During his senior year, his stock soared to the point that by April he was considered the #2 or #3 prospect in the country. All of Barnes, Sullinger, Irving, and Knight would have been lottery picks straight out of high school.
    Yes and my original point was that I would prefer for Duke not to recruit players who are considered good enough to be lottery picks straight out of HS so the perception when they are being recruited is relevant but the perception on draft day may not be if they have already committed. I might further narrow the pool to top 5 picks since, according to various DBR posters, the NBA values HS ranking more than college performance.
    Last edited by Newton_14; 04-27-2012 at 09:49 PM.

  20. #360
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Galveston, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by Jderf View Post
    I see this idea (that Gbinije might change his mind and stay at Duke) being floated around throughout the thread, but is there any foundation to that notion? I haven't seen anything reported in the news that would seem to back it up, except for the fact that the situation has been awfully quiet since the announcement, and on the surface it seems to be a pretty outlandish idea. Is there any precedent for players publicly announcing a transfer and then ultimately deciding to remain at their original school? Could be, but I've never heard of it.

    If it is a legitimate option -- and I really have no idea if it is or not -- then it will be the option I'm pulling for. I'd love nothing more than to see Gbinije in royal blue again next year.
    Didn't Phil Henderson say that he was going to transfer and then change his mind a few days later?

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