Originally Posted by
Kedsy
I just went back through the entire Coach K era, looking for Duke teams with three or more seniors who played 15+ minutes a game. Here's the data:
1986: Alarie, Bilas, J Dawkins, D Henderson; 37-3, NCAA championship game
1989: Ferry, J Smith, Snyder; 28-8, Final Four
1990: Abdelnaby, Brickey, P Henderson; 29-9, championship game
1994: G Hill, Lang, M Clark; 28-6, championship game
2006: Redick, S Williams, Dockery, Melchionni; 32-4, Sweet 16
2010: Scheyer, Zoubek, Thomas; 35-5, NCAA Champion
2013: Mas Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Dawkins; tbd...
It's worth noting that a lot of these seniors weren't superstars, and also that four of the six listed teams probably "overachieved" in the NCAA tournament (and only one underachieved), at least compared to the general perception. It may not have been coincidence.
Admittedly not very many data points. But to me, There's enough here to say the people who are writing us off already may end up being surprised. Your conclusion may vary.