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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    It looks wide-open to me. Duke at 12 is no different from Duke at, say, 8 or 17. UNC at 10/11 is no different from UNC at 8 or 15. NCSt, even with Leslie, at Katz's #7 is no different from NCSt at Goodman/Parrish's #18 [!!].
    I completely agree. There are no "great" teams as best I can tell coming into next year. No one is going to be considered dominant entering the 12/13 season, and Duke at #12 is about as good as Duke at #5 or #6. A team may emerge as truly dominant as the season progresses, but there's not one that can be labeled as such right now, imho.
    Reading and posting at DBR for over 20 years and loving every... well, almost every minute of it!

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I'm even surprised that there's, so far, an "expert consensus" on the top 3 [UK, IU, and UL in some order] and next 3 [KU, UM, Baylor in exactly that order]. KU as #4 is especially puzzling, for sure. But even if one says, "OK, I'll accept a consensus top 5 of UL, UK, IU, UM, and Baylor," I doubt many would predict any of those to be likely-great, and therefore really "safe" bets to be in the FF.
    I went into more depth about KU in that other thread, so I won't go into it again. They/we will be much better than people think, and with CBB and the Big 12 being very down, they could/should hover around the Top 5-10 all season. I am not predicting a Final 4 or anything like that yet, that's way way premature to start talking about.

    I *would* like to discuss Baylor for a second. I don't want to paint with a broad brush, but there seems to be a weird over-estimating of that team around here. They finished 4th in the Big12, 4 games behind KU. They are losing 26 ppg from their frontline in Acy/Jones. Miller is a big man in size only, he floats around the three-point line more than their guards do. (He's 6-10 and averaged 4 rebounds a game.) And that's before we bring up Scott Drew. Yea, he's got two E8s in the last 3 years (largely helped when the #2s in his region were upset). In between those they missed the tournament altogether, WITH Acy/Jones.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    I went into more depth about KU in that other thread, so I won't go into it again. They/we will be much better than people think, and with CBB and the Big 12 being very down, they could/should hover around the Top 5-10 all season. I am not predicting a Final 4 or anything like that yet, that's way way premature to start talking about.

    I *would* like to discuss Baylor for a second. I don't want to paint with a broad brush, but there seems to be a weird over-estimating of that team around here. They finished 4th in the Big12, 4 games behind KU. They are losing 26 ppg from their frontline in Acy/Jones. Miller is a big man in size only, he floats around the three-point line more than their guards do. (He's 6-10 and averaged 4 rebounds a game.) And that's before we bring up Scott Drew. Yea, he's got two E8s in the last 3 years (largely helped when the #2s in his region were upset). In between those they missed the tournament altogether, WITH Acy/Jones.
    They also bring in a top 5 recruiting class. They lose arguably less or equal to KU and bring in more talent. Austin was the #2 C in a great class for centers. Gathers will help Q. Miller man the 4 spot and perhaps play the 3. Deuce Bello could take a jump and LJ Rose should spell Pierre Jackson. Baylor will be good.

    And come on, your bias is coming through with the whole "2 seed being upset". I believe Baylor was the best 3 seed those 2 years and while it may not be probable for a 2 seed to lose before S16, it isn't that uncommon with 2 of those happening this year. I also believe Baylor would have beaten Duke b/c of their length this year and almost beat the national champions in 2010. So their runs to the E8 were not flukes as they lost to the eventual champions both times.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    I went into more depth about KU in that other thread, so I won't go into it again. They/we will be much better than people think, and with CBB and the Big 12 being very down, they could/should hover around the Top 5-10 all season. I am not predicting a Final 4 or anything like that yet, that's way way premature to start talking about.
    And I still think you're overvaluing the returning/new players. Basically, you have a very good defensive team with a bunch of complementary/role players offensively. Johnson is the only guy who has shown any ability to create his own shot, and even then he did so with the help of being guarded by the second best perimeter defender (and with teams being much more concerned about the interior). I think Kansas (who wasn't a great offensive team this year with two of the better offensive players in the country) will struggle offensively and will rely even more on their defense. That is, unless at least two of Johnson, Withey, Ellis, or McLemore can make an unexpected leap to stardom offensively. None of the guys like Releford, Young, Wesley, and the remaining newcomers should be expected to do much offensively. It was Robinson and Taylor that made Kansas effective/dangerous offensively and Withey that made them dangerous defensively. Next year you'll still be very stout defensively but very pedestrian offensively. That is probably good enough for top 10-15, but to predict them as preseason #4 is ridiculous. That's why I said they're too highly seeded.

    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    I *would* like to discuss Baylor for a second. I don't want to paint with a broad brush, but there seems to be a weird over-estimating of that team around here. They finished 4th in the Big12, 4 games behind KU. They are losing 26 ppg from their frontline in Acy/Jones. Miller is a big man in size only, he floats around the three-point line more than their guards do. (He's 6-10 and averaged 4 rebounds a game.) And that's before we bring up Scott Drew. Yea, he's got two E8s in the last 3 years (largely helped when the #2s in his region were upset). In between those they missed the tournament altogether, WITH Acy/Jones.
    As for Baylor, yes, they lose the heart of their interior in Acy, Jones III, and Jones. But they add Austin (a 7 footer among the top-5 incoming freshmen) and Gathers (a rugged PF among the top 35 who very much in the Acy mold) to replace them. And they still have Quincy Miller, who is a mismatch at SF. They also return their entire backcourt, which includes the best PG in the conference in Jackson, a phenomenal shooter in Heslip, a freak athlete in Bello, and 2-3 more backup guard/wings. The only question will be how much Austin, Gathers, Miller, and Jefferson can offset the losses of Jones III, Acy, and Jones. But I'd say they're in better position than Kansas to replace what they lost, mainly because what they lost was slightly less critical than what Kansas lost and what they have coming in is better top-end talent than what Kansas has coming in.

    Obviously it remains to be seen how it plays out. I do think those two teams are the class of the Big-12 next year. Self is certainly a better coach than Drew. But Drew has more talent to work with.

  5. #25

    Kansas

    I'm with CDu on the Jayhawks next preseason ......

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    [KU] is probably good enough for top 10-15, but to predict them as preseason #4 is ridiculous. That's why I said they're too highly seeded.
    ...... but Joe Lunardi is definitely with TexHawk.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    ... KU ... will be much better than people think, and with CBB and the Big 12 being very down, they could/should hover around the Top 5-10 all season.
    In fact, Lunardi might be understood to imply that TexHawk is underselling the Jayhawks. Yikes!

    Check out Lunardi's Bracketology. He's got 5 ACC teams, in this order: UNC, Duke, NCSt [he assumes Leslie is gone], Miami, FSU.

    Lots of talking points in his seedings.

  6. #26
    Imported this observation from another thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    In fact, Kentucky should really be more interested in a guard over all else. They have only two significant players on the roster (Harrow and Goodwin) that can be considered major conference-caliber guards.
    IMO, UK, even if Calipari picks up another impressive interior player, has what we might call an interesting situation at PG next season. NCSt transfer Harrow is exciting and may have added a few pounds. But Goodwin, as CDu notes, the only other major guard, is no PG. I suppose he could back up Harrow for a few minutes, but I'm inclined to think maybe Poythress might have to play a little PG, too. Will Harrow be strong enough to get 35 mpg?

  7. #27

    Quincy Miller gone

    Baylor's Quincy Miller is gone.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    Baylor's Quincy Miller is gone.
    Yep, makes this post even more valid

    Quote Originally Posted by TexHawk View Post
    I *would* like to discuss Baylor for a second. I don't want to paint with a broad brush, but there seems to be a weird over-estimating of that team around here. They finished 4th in the Big12, 4 games behind KU. They are losing 26 ppg from their frontline in Acy/Jones. Miller is a big man in size only, he floats around the three-point line more than their guards do. (He's 6-10 and averaged 4 rebounds a game.) And that's before we bring up Scott Drew. Yea, he's got two E8s in the last 3 years (largely helped when the #2s in his region were upset). In between those they missed the tournament altogether, WITH Acy/Jones.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    Yep, makes this post even more valid

    Wow, I'm surprised to see that. I really thought Miller could use another year of college to get stronger and smoother. Probably not the smartest thing, but good luck to him. Huge for Baylor too. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that is their starting frontcourt that is now going to the NBA. They have a few nice freshmen coming in, but I think they'll be falling to the 20-25 range now.

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