But when I'm looking at the numbers, I'm not seeing that Derek is ahead of Rose's pace. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.
Jeter is 37 years old now, and will turn 38 in June. He's in his 18th season. If you remove his rookie year where he only played 15 games and had 12 hits, and just focus on his full seasons, he's averaged 192.25 hits per year prior to this year. At the outset of this year, he needed 1168 hits to tie Rose, which at the rate of 192.25 per year, would mean it would take him 6.07 years to tie him. This would take Derek to age 43 or 44.
But that's if Jeter can continue to bang out almost 200 hits per year all the way to age 43 or 44. Rose, who averaged 183 hits per year not counting his last, abbreviated year (1986), had the following number of hits in his 40's years:
At age 41 he had 172 hits
age 42: 121 hits
age 43: 107 hits
age 44: 107 hits
age 45: 52 hits
So Rose, not surprisingly, really started to decline as he got into his early 40's. Modern training methods and good genes (who knows?) may help Derek push his decline out a bit, but continuing to average 192 hits a year until age 44, as would be required, seems pretty unlikely to me, and I'm not sure how you'd say he's ahead of Pete's pace at this point.
Did I misunderstand you or am I missing something?
Demented and sad, but social, right?
Another interesting chase this year... can Hamilton win the triple crown? He's currently leading all 3 categories by a pretty wide margin. That would be pretty amazing. He essentially has a 50% lead over everyone in RBIs (44-29) and HRs (18-12) thus far. Certainly not an insurmountable lead but sizable. He's also currently hitting .400 which is obviously not sustainable. His biggest challenge might actually just be staying healthy. Something he hasn't done over the last few years. Currently ESPN projects him to hit 81 homers and amass 198 RBIs which would be impressive .
Derek Jeter is ahead -- very slightly ahead -- of Pete Rose's hit pace.
Now, as many have pointed out, Rose remained productive well into his 40s, although it's worth noting that he had his last 200-hit season at age 38 (the same age that Jeter will be when this season is over). Jeter has not yet turned 38 (he does so in July). He'll have to play at a high level for several more years to make a real run at the record. Will he do that? A year ago -- after his poor 2010 and his poor first half in 2011 -- I'd say no. But since midseason 2011, he's played at a very high pace (I think I heard on a Yes telecast that he's hitting .344 since coming off the injury list late June in '11). He's currently leading all baseball in hits this season.
I don't know the odds that Jeter hangs around long enough and plays well enough to get Rose's record -- maybe 20 percent? 10 percent? 30 percent?
What I do know is that as of this moment, he's ahead of the pace that Rose set.
As Rose himself said, "The first 3,000 hits are easy. Baseball’s an easy game to play when you’re 100 percent. But try getting those hits when you’re old, when your bat’s slow, when your back hurts.”
So Duke holds a 63-62 lead with 10 minutes to go against UNC ... and you don't define that as "ahead"?
Maybe a better anaolgy would be all those years when people made a run at Babe Ruth's record 60 home runs. Ruth hit 17 home runs in the month of September that year, an extraordinary number. That meant that year after year, players would be ahead of Ruth's pace in July and even at the end of August. But nobody -- until Maris -- could match the pace through September.
Well, Jeter is ahead of Rose's pace through the end of August. He'll still have to match Ruth/Rose's extraordinary September ... tough to do, but he's the first player since Rose to get to September 1st with a real chance to make a run.
Last edited by JasonEvans; 05-16-2012 at 03:45 PM. Reason: removed snark
Demented and sad, but social, right?
Rose had 3,164 hits as of 37 years and 302 days. Jeter is now older than that and still doesn't have 3,164 hits. So I think your stats are off there.
Also using games played is a poor measure of how long they have played. Rose played more games per year than Jeter did (due to health, and just being in the lineup more) at this point in their careers. So I don't think it's really fair to say Jeter is ahead of pace. If anything I'd say he's slightly behind pace. However I think Jeter will either be more productive in his twilight or retire. There's no way he finishes out his career the way Rose did.
As of today, Jeter has 3144 hits. He is 37 years, 10 months, and 21 days old.
Pete Rose got hit number 3144 on September 14, 1978, when he went 2 for 4 in an 8-1 loss to the Padres in San Diego. On that date he was 37 years, 5 months old.
On Tuesday, arriving by a circuitous route from the West Coast, which includes a paddlewheeler from Peoria, Carol and I will be visiting Busch Stadium where we will see the Cardinals host the Padres, thanks to the wonder that is StubHub. Let's hope the printouts scan at the gate.
Hey Jim3K, have a great trip!
I'd love to do a baseball tour....
In 2010, we got to a game at Wrigley and another at the new Nats park (when Stephen Strasburg made his home debut against the White Sox and President Obama sneaked in above us.) But there are a lot of major league ballparks we've never even seen. Aside from the Oakland Coliseum, our most visited ballpark for games is Safeco. The Giants are next followed by the Angels' stadia and Chavez Ravine. I've been to Coors and whatever they now call Arizona's park (was The Bob, then). Have yet to catch a game at Petco. Most of the midwestern and eastern parks are simply out of our normal track.
But you're right. A stadium tour could be a lot of fun. Even minor league parks are fun to go to. I love the one in Albuquerque and the one in Las Vegas. Tucson's, too. Years ago, Sick's housed the Seattle Pilots for a year. In high school, Bears Stadium in Denver; it eventually became Mile High and I used to see the Richmond Virginians in '61 and '62 when I was home from Duke. And Durham now has the most famous, DAP. First pro game I ever went to was a Northern League game, the Superior (WI) Blues against someone (maybe Duluth). Class D ball. I was 8.
Not a Yankee fan but I've always admired Jeter. I didn't realize he was tracking Rose so closely. Lots of interesting happenings this season. Hamilton and Kemp getting off to incredible starts; Puljois batting .213 with 2 homers after 37 games; and the Orioles tied for 1st in the rugged American East after nearly 1/4 of the season. I've been a fan of the O's since Brooks, Boog, Frank, Earl, Mark, Paul and many others in the 60's. For the past several years, the O's have been out of the race by late May. I'm hoping that they can hang in there till July this year.
Tonight is a big night for Yankee fans -- Phil Hughes is starting at Toronto.
Hughes is becoming an important player in a staff that's struggling. With Pineda out for the year and Garcia hitting the wall, the Yankees are suddenly struggling to put five solid starters in the rotation. The Killer Bees clearly aren't ready. I mean, Sabathia has been a rock (despite his recent loss, he's 5-1). Nova has been fine and Kuroda has been what he's always been -- a 4th/5th starter. We're down to relying on Andy Pettite's return after two years (he looked okay, but not great in his first start).
That puts a lot on Mr. Hughes. As you know, he was great in 2010 (18-8 and an all-star). At age 24, he looked like a coming star.
Then we get 2011 and Hughes is 5-5 with an ERA approaching 6. And although he showed some promise this spring, he was just awful in his early starts.
But with the arrival of May, it started to change. He took a loss on May 1, but he went 5.2 innings and gave up just four hits and one walk (unfortunately four runs). On May 6, he got a win when he went 6.2 innings, giving up six hits, one walk and three runs. And the last time out, against Seattle, he went 7.2 innings, gave up six hits, one walk and just one run.
That looks like progress, although it's just a three-game sample. That's why I think tonight is so important. If he can confirm that progress with another decent start, our rotation will look a lot better. If he reverts to his 2011 form, we are hurting.
I'm holding my breath.
At the age of 34, after a career that was marked by moments of brilliance but tortured by seemingly endless injures, Kerry Wood is hanging up his spikes. He had been largely ineffective this season with an ERA in the 8s and he knew it was time. He went out on his own terms though, striking out the last batter he faced (how fitting) and then walking off the field to thunderous applause and a tender hug from his son.
Watch it here.
--Jason "he made $70 mil in his career, so he ain't exactly suffering... but still, oh what might have been" Evans
Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk
One out in the ninth! Throwing the serious heat! Mowing them down.....
AWWWWWWWWWW!!!!! One lousy hit.
Verlander, the best, simply the best. Who else threatens a no hit every time he takes the mound?!
Obviously a strong performance by Verlander. Agree that he's the top guy in the game at this moment.
His near no-no should not overshadow another remarkable pitching performance. Andy Pettite, making his second start after his one-year layoff, stopped the Reds on four hits (all singles) and no runs through eight innings. He walked just one and struck out nine.
The Yankees needed that after getting swept in Toronto.
First, the Padres are bad but not as bad as they appear. They were in this game until the 6th when a bad call at the plate permitted the Cards' second run. Descalso was on third. Beltran bounced to third. The throw to the plate seemed perfect to me and Descalso ran into the tag. Called safe. From my vantage point down the first base line, it was a wrong call. Bud Black argued to no avail.
Then a third run scored more conventionally due to a shortstop blunder.
But the pitchers were relatively equal, though the Cards' Wainwright did get a complete game win. Given the run support he had, he deserved it as the better team won. Still, the Pads' starter Volquez was pretty decent. He could have gotten out of the 6th with only one run had rookie ss Everth Cabrera turned an inning-ending double play into a force at second, allowing the third run to score. The only reason it wasn't an error was because he managed to roll the ball to the second baseman for the force.
The Pads' lack of offense ultimately killed them. They only got 4 hits off Wainwright and left the two who had gotten into scoring position (via doubles) stranded.
It was a nice soft St. Louis evening. Very pleasant, even if the baseball could have been better played.