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  1. #301
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevil2K View Post
    Jason,

    You forgot the Reds (+67), who have won 19 of 22 and now have the best record in baseball (+1.5 on Washington and +2 on the Yankees)

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/group/9

    They obviously can't maintain that pace for another two months, but they're winning pretty much every night with their best player on the DL...

    Brian
    Yup, sorry. The Reds are 35 runs worse than the Cards in differential... but 7 games up in the standings. Makes no sense.

    -Jason
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #302
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yup, sorry. The Reds are 35 runs worse than the Cards in differential... but 7 games up in the standings. Makes no sense.

    -Jason
    The Cards have a terrible record, 12-18, in one-run games, compared to the Reds who are 18-16 and the Pirates who are 23-16. On the other side of the coin, the Cards have a huge run-scoring advantage in blowout games compared to those two teams. So thus far, they've been much less "efficient" than those other teams in getting wins out of their runs (and presumably a bit unlucky in those 1-run games). Sooner or later you'd expect things to even out, although it's obviously been awhile already.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  3. #303

    Marcus Stroman Promoted

    Ten consecutive scoreless innings at single-A Vancouver got Marcus a ticket to double-A New Hampshire.

  4. #304
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    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    Ten consecutive scoreless innings at single-A Vancouver got Marcus a ticket to double-A New Hampshire.
    I wonder how many guys drafted in the 2012 draft a month or so ago have already made it to AA? Moving a kid up that quickly is a sign of someone being fast-tracked to the Majors, for sure.

    -Jason "I imagine it is different for a P than a position player as you gotta worry about innings and their impact on his arm" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #305
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I wonder how many guys drafted in the 2012 draft a month or so ago have already made it to AA? Moving a kid up that quickly is a sign of someone being fast-tracked to the Majors, for sure.
    It appears he's the second, after Steven Rodriguez of the Dodgers. (Unless there's anyone else who was promoted recently like Stroman and isn't yet listed here as having reached AA).

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft...rch.asp?Y=2012
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  6. #306
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue in the Face View Post
    The Cards have a terrible record, 12-18, in one-run games, compared to the Reds who are 18-16 and the Pirates who are 23-16. On the other side of the coin, the Cards have a huge run-scoring advantage in blowout games compared to those two teams. So thus far, they've been much less "efficient" than those other teams in getting wins out of their runs (and presumably a bit unlucky in those 1-run games). Sooner or later you'd expect things to even out, although it's obviously been awhile already.
    True for the Cardinals vis-a-vis the Pirates, but not so much as to the Reds. By my quick count, in games decided by 5 or more runs (admittedly an arbitrary number, but I just wanted to see) the Cardinals are 20-8, the Reds 16-9 and the Pirates 10-10. So yes, the Cardinals run differential is much better than you'd expect it to be compared to the Pirates because St. Louis has won a lot more blowouts than they've lost. But the Reds and St. Louis are close in this category.

  7. #307
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    True for the Cardinals vis-a-vis the Pirates, but not so much as to the Reds. By my quick count, in games decided by 5 or more runs (admittedly an arbitrary number, but I just wanted to see) the Cardinals are 20-8, the Reds 16-9 and the Pirates 10-10. So yes, the Cardinals run differential is much better than you'd expect it to be compared to the Pirates because St. Louis has won a lot more blowouts than they've lost. But the Reds and St. Louis are close in this category.
    I'm not talking about their records in those games, but rather their run differential. In such games the Cards have a run differential of +84 runs. The Reds' differential in these games is only +33 runs. So the Cards' big advantage in total run differential is significantly influenced by a number of games where a lot of those runs didn't really translate into winning. A clunky way of saying it would be that the Cards "wasted" more runs in blowout wins than the Reds did, so looking at their total scoring differential is therefore less indicative of their record.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  8. #308
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    About 150 feet in front of the Duke Chapel doors.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, I was at the Nats-Phils game last night and saw the Phils just rock Stephen Strasburg.

    After the game, a Nats friend of mine shared this article that talks a bit about how guys recovering from Tommy John surgery often seem to fade and weaken at mid-season the year after their surgery.



    If SS is going to be a mid-4s ERA player the 2nd half of the season, the Nats aren't nearly as formidable as we may have thoughts.

    -Jason "worth noting, Bryce Harper is in a massive slump right now... he may need a trip back to AAA" Evans
    It'll be interesting to see how the Nats fare over the rest of the season. I'm not so sure it's time to close the book on Strasburg, though. Ever since his stunning April (34 Ks, 1.13 ERA, NL Pitcher of the Month), he's been inconsistent - often alternating between dominating and mediocre starts. His ERA for May (4.50) was worse that his ERA in July (4.13) His last start (6 ER in 4 innings vs. the Phillies) was on the heels of maybe his best start of the year (11 K, 0 BB, 4 H, 1 ER in 7 innings vs the Mets on July 25th). I suspect he'll have a couple more dominating games before he gets shut down.

    The Nats pitcher I'm more concerned about is Gio Gonzalez. After an amazing April and May - 7 wins total with a 2.04 ERA - he's posted ERAs of 4.34 and 4.59 in June and July. He also had a great game vs. the Mets last week - 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER in 7 innings on the 24th, but also followed it up with a real stinker - 4 ER in 6 innings vs. the Brewers on the 29th. With Strasburg's shutdown about a month away, Gio was the #1 candidate to fulfill the stopper role on the staff, but he's not pitching like it lately.

    Fortunately for the Nats, Jordan Zimmermann is. The NL Pitcher of July posted 4 wins and a 0.97 ERA for the month. He's gone 6 innings or more in every start this year and hasn't allowed more then 3 ERs in a game since May. But in an ominous note, the Nats have pushed back his next start a day due to some shoulder inflammation. Here's hoping it's only a temporary and minor issue. BTW, Jordan's award makes it 3 different Nats that have been named NL Pitcher of the Month this year (Stras in April, Gio in May, Jordan in July). That's the first time that's happened since Houston had four different pitchers win the honor in 1979.

    Jackson and Detwiler - especially Detwiler lately - have been solid as the #4 and #5 starters, respectively. If John Lannan has another good outing this afternoon vs. the Marlins, I'll feel a lot better about the post-Stras shutdown rotation.

    Regarding Harper, he's not going anywhere. Yes, he's in a slump, but it's not a horrific one - he's 4-24 since July 23rd, and his average has dropped to .258. He is in a bit of a power drought, with only 6 extra-base hits since June. I think his plate discipline has wavered, as it looks to me like he's swinging at more bad pitches than he used to be. But he's not going to the minors. He might get a little more rest, though, especially with Jayson Werth coming off the DL yesterday. Davey Johnson has got to find some ABs for Tyler Moore, and he might sit Harper on occasion to do that.

    The rest of the Nats' offense is looking pretty good of late. The Nats went 17-9 in July despite their pitching looking pretty mortal (well, outside of Zimmermann) for the month. They did it by averaging 5.1 runs/game - up about 2 runs from April. Ryan Zimmerman has been amazing lately, Michael Morse is hitting .300 since coming off the DL, and LaRoche has continued to drive in runs. Desmond going on the DL hurts, but Lombardozzi is a good defensive replacement and a decent hitter, albeit without Desmond's power. And now Werth is back. His impact is much more than his stats - he's a real clubhouse leader and a great teammate. Harper, especially, may benefit from Werth's return.

    One other important note is the return of Drew Storen to the bullpen. He adds quality depth that is needed, especially with the inconsistent Henry Rodriguez going back on the DL.

    I'm still pretty optimistic. The team could certainly crumble under the pressure of the unfamiliar playoff push, but Johnson and some of the vets like Werth, LaRoche, and Jackson may be able to keep that from happening. If the offense can keep producing, they can deal with the falloff in performance by the starters. Certainly, the Braves could catch them, and they could even fall out of the playoffs if the Reds and Pirates continue to excel and the Dodgers or Cardinals get really hot. But that's a lot of "if"s, and my bet is that they'll end up in a pretty tight race with Atlanta and have about 92 wins come October, securing a playoff berth for a Washington team for the first time since 1933.
    JBDuke

    Andre Dawkins: “People ask me if I can still shoot, and I ask them if they can still breathe. That’s kind of the same thing.”

  9. #309
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Here's hoping JBDuke and thanks for the analysis. The rising ERAs have had me concerned. Also not very confident Storen is himself. However, being an optimist, I am going to order my playoff tickets. Will be attending tonight's and Sunday's games to cheer them on.

  10. #310

    Heyward

    Watching the Braves last night, I was enjoying another good performance by Jason Heyward (three hits) and remembering how excited we all were him as a rookie two years ago. It got me thinking about this year's two hot rookies -- Mike Trout of the Angels and Bryce Harper for the Nats. How do they stack up to what Heyward did in 2010?

    Heyward (age 20) .277 18 HR 72 RBIs -- .833 OPS ... 131 OPS plus ... also 11 sb, .393 OBP
    Harper (age 19) .258 9 HR 29 RBIs -- .753 OPS ... 103 OBP plis ... also 13 SB
    Trout (age 20) .347 18 HR 55 RBIs -- 1.009 OPS ... 182 OPS plus ... 33 SB (and just 3 CS)

    The thing that jumps out at you is that Trout is in a class with himself.

    Well, that's not true ... when you search the data base for 20-year-old centerfielders, you can compare him to Ken Griffey Jr. (.847 OPS; 136 OPS plus), Mickey Mantle (.924 OPS; 162 OPS plus), Ty Cobb (who actually played RF in his age 20 season; .849 OPS; 167 OPS plus). The other closest comparable age 20 hitters I see after a quick search are Ted Williams (1.045 OPS; 160 OPS plus) and Alex Rodriguez (1.045 OPS; 161 OPS plus).

    That's pretty historic company.

    For Harper, not so much -- although it's worth noting that he's a year younger at 19 and plays an outstanding centerfield. We'll see if he gets in that class by age 20.

    Right now, Heyward had a better rookie year (at age 20) than Harper is having (at age 19). The question is how much do these guys build on their starts,. Heyward, due to injuries or whatever, hasn't built on his great start (as good as he's been this year, he was actually slightly better as a rookie). Guys like Mantle, Griffey Jr., DiMaggio and Cobb did built on their great starts.

    But of the three youn OFers, Mike Trout is clearly the one to watch.

  11. #311
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBDuke View Post
    ...especially with the inconsistent Henry Rodriguez going back on the DL...
    If you have no stake whatsoever in the outcome, there are few things as much fun as watching Henry Rodriquez pitch. Dude can bring it -- his fastball routinely tops 100 MPH, but his control is whack. When I was at the Nats-Phils game the other day, I saw him make a Phil batter look foolish on a paif of 101 mph fastballs followed by an 87 mph changeup that just wrecked the batter. Then, he gets ahead of the next batter 1-2 and proceeds to miss 3 in a row... including ball 4 which was a good 6 feet over the batter's head and hit the backstop incredibly hard.

    Dude is nothing but fun on the mound. Even he has no idea where the next pitch is going.

    -Jason "if he ever gets it under control... daym!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  12. #312
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I forget if we commented on it in this thread earlier (I looked, but could not find any comments), but early this season it looked like the Braves had made a gigantic mistake in the offseason. They had jettisoned Derek Lowe to the Indians and even agreed to pay $10 mil of his $15 mil salary. In other words, the Braves, who have a payroll of about $90 mil, were using roughly 1/10th of their payroll this season to pay for Lowe to pitch for someone else.

    It would have been fine if Lowe had been his usual sucky self, but he got off to a really hot start for the Indians. He was 6-2 with a 2.15 ERA over his first 9 starts. Argh!

    But, I am happy to report that the Earth's axis has returned to normal as Lowe has been godawful lately and the Indians finally saw the light and designated him for assignment.

    -Jason "betcha someone takes a flier on Lowe in the off-season... old pitchers seem to die very slowly" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #313
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    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Redbirds are up to +107 run differential. And desperately hoping for the second wildcard spot. I think the only time I've seen such a goofy departure from a team's pythag and its actual record was the Rockies in...2001? 2002? I wrote Rob Neyer about it, as I recall.

    If there's any justice for the Braves (haha I see what I did there), there will be a one-game playoff between the Braves and the Cardinals this year. Then everyone I know will annoy the hell out of me asking every three minutes who I'm rooting for.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  14. #314
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    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Redbirds are up to +107 run differential. And desperately hoping for the second wildcard spot. I think the only time I've seen such a goofy departure from a team's pythag and its actual record was the Rockies in...2001? 2002? I wrote Rob Neyer about it, as I recall.

    If there's any justice for the Braves (haha I see what I did there), there will be a one-game playoff between the Braves and the Cardinals this year. Then everyone I know will annoy the hell out of me asking every three minutes who I'm rooting for.
    Wild Card battle--

    The Cards are still 2.5 behind the Pirates (3 in loss column) and 3 back of the Braves. They are also just 1 loss ahead of the Dodgers and the Dodgers have done as much as anyone to remake their team a the trade deadline and get better. Heck, when it started looking like the Dodgers might get Cliff Lee (and his monster contract), it appeared the Dodgers were turning into Phillies-West. Even if the Phils have had a tough year, getting 4 or 5 of the best pieces from another good team has to make you better.

    Anyway, I think it will be a tough battle for the wild card spots. Simply having a team flop, like the Braves did last year, won't be enough because there are so many good teams in the mix. Still, there is most assuredly time for the Cards to get there. They will probably need to play above .600 ball to do it, but that is not impossible.

    -Jason "Pitt, 14 games over .500 with just a +32 run diff... they may come back to Earth" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  15. #315
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    More run diff quirks--

    Orioles - 5 games over .500 with a -58 run differential. Almost unfathomable. 4th worst run diff in the AL.
    Seattle - 7 games under .500 with a +1 run diff. They are only 15-18 in 1-run games so it is not like they are losing all the close ones.
    Arizona - 3 games over .500 with a +43 run diff, 5th best in the NL. They probably should be like 9 or 10 games over .500 with that kind of run diff. They are just 8-14 in 1-run games.

    -Jason "fun with SABR!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #316

    run differential

    Doesn't Bill James talk about something he calls "The rubberband" effect?

    Basically, that's when a team (or a player) greatly exceeds or underperforms projected performance, that team/player almost always reverts to form in the next season.

    I guess in this case, that would suggest that in terms of building their franchise, neither the Orioles or the Pirates are really as far along as they look -- and are both likely to take a big step back next season. On the other hand, the Cardinals just need to stand pat and despite this year's frustration, they'll be poised to do well in 2013.

    Of course, the kicker to this theory is that sometimes teams overreact to their abberrant seasons. The Orioles and Pirates really need to strengthen their teams in the offseason ... but will they do it, feeling that their 2012 success is a sign that they are almost there and all they need to do is let their young players mature? In St. Louis, the danger is of panicing from this year's frustrating season and making some bad offseason moves in reaction.

  17. #317
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Redbirds are up to +107 run differential. And desperately hoping for the second wildcard spot. I think the only time I've seen such a goofy departure from a team's pythag and its actual record was the Rockies in...2001? 2002? I wrote Rob Neyer about it, as I recall.

    If there's any justice for the Braves (haha I see what I did there), there will be a one-game playoff between the Braves and the Cardinals this year. Then everyone I know will annoy the hell out of me asking every three minutes who I'm rooting for.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Wild Card battle--

    The Cards are still 2.5 behind the Pirates (3 in loss column) and 3 back of the Braves. They are also just 1 loss ahead of the Dodgers and the Dodgers have done as much as anyone to remake their team a the trade deadline and get better. Heck, when it started looking like the Dodgers might get Cliff Lee (and his monster contract), it appeared the Dodgers were turning into Phillies-West. Even if the Phils have had a tough year, getting 4 or 5 of the best pieces from another good team has to make you better.

    Anyway, I think it will be a tough battle for the wild card spots. Simply having a team flop, like the Braves did last year, won't be enough because there are so many good teams in the mix. Still, there is most assuredly time for the Cards to get there. They will probably need to play above .600 ball to do it, but that is not impossible.

    -Jason "Pitt, 14 games over .500 with just a +32 run diff... they may come back to Earth" Evans
    If/when the Braves find themselves one game out of the playoff picture, they may seriously regret last night's loss at home to the worst team in the majors who happens to be on a huuuge losing binge having lost 29 of their last 32, IIRC, before last evening's win. Sheesh.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  18. #318
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    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, Va
    Lifelong Tigers fan here, what a comeback today after giving up three in the top of the 10th to come right back and score 5 to win. I go back as far as remembering the Tigers in '67 and '68. I was 5 in '67, had all the baseball cards. GO TIGERS!!! Beat Ozzie's Yanks this series!!!

  19. #319
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    About 150 feet in front of the Duke Chapel doors.
    For those predicting the post-break demise of Steven Strasburg, another strong performance today... 6 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K's, 91 pitches. Oh, and he also drove in 2 runs. The Nats took 3 of 4 from the Marlins and are now 22 games over .500 and still 3 up on the recently hot Braves. Next, they travel to Houston for a 4 game set.

    BTW, Strasburg is hitting .343 so far this year, with an OPS of .953. Perhaps after they shut him down from pitching, Davey can use him as a pinch hitter?
    JBDuke

    Andre Dawkins: “People ask me if I can still shoot, and I ask them if they can still breathe. That’s kind of the same thing.”

  20. #320
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Doesn't Bill James talk about something he calls "The rubberband" effect?

    Basically, that's when a team (or a player) greatly exceeds or underperforms projected performance, that team/player almost always reverts to form in the next season.
    Phil Steele has a similar one about turnovers. It turns out the ability to consistently "create" turnovers year after year in college football is more or less nonexistent, unless you've got a Charles Woodson, and even then people stop throwing his way, or he graduates. So in practice, what happens is that turnover differential fluctuates wildly for a given program, even good programs, and you can expect (a) one year "distortions" in your record based on what happened with your turnover differential and (b) if your number was double digits positive or negative for season 1, you can usually expect a regression to the means in season 2. I've rendered this imperfectly, but you get the idea. It makes sense. When the difference between missing a bowl (5-7) and making one easily (7-5) is just two wins, or the difference between the Pampers Bowl (7-5) and a very successful season (9-3) is just two wins, three or four turnovers here of there can have a pretty big effect.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

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