Baseball 2012 -- The In-Season Thread

[Jim3k]

Ostler, a SF Chron sports columnist, looks at the dilemma A's owners Lew Wolff and John Fisher have wrought for themselves. The A's are on a hot streak that seems to be counter to the owners' desire to move the team to San Jose. Ostler calls it a lightning bolt from the Big Athletic in the Sky.

If [GM Billy] Beane and Wolff break up the A's now, they are corrupt frauds with hearts the size of a Sean Doolittle fastball. [Me: hearts smaller than an aspirin tablet.]

Why would they bust up the A's, you ask?


A valiant run for the playoffs would be a disaster to Wolff. It would mean more income, short-term, but it would undermine Lew's master plan of convincing MLB owners that Oakland is a graveyard for baseball, that only a move to San Jose can save the franchise.

Ostler fears the worst, as have I in this very thread. But he is at least amused by the fact that the team's performance may well defeat the Wolff-Fisher 'proof' that Oakland can't support an MLB team. Plus, as he says, if they bust up this team, they can never be trusted again. Frankly, I don't trust them anyway.

[Blue in the Face]

His new teammates -- including the likes of DeWayne Wise and Jayson Nix -- are all significant better than he is now at the plate.

I agree that Ichiro is unlikely to be much of a producer at the plate - the Yanks gave up very little for him, and will probably get what they paid for. But let's not get carried away. Nix' hitting this year is not much better than Ichiro's. Last year he was quite a bit worse than Ichiro has been this year. In 2010 and for his career he was also comparable to what Ichiro has done this year. Wise had himself a little hot streak for the Yanks, but his career numbers are pretty dreadful, and I think it's unrealistic to think at age 34 he's suddenly become anything different from what he's always been. Jones and Ibanez have done a nice job at the plate, but the yanks' OF depth behind them was pretty slim pickings, and there's really not much basis to consider either Nix or Wise any better than Ichiro at the plate, and certainly not significantly better.

[JBDuke]

The NL East is looking more and more like a 2 team race at this point. The Nats just completed a 3-game sweep of the Mets, and the Braves took 2 of 3 from the Marlins. The Braves are now 7 up on the Mets, 9 up on the Marlins, and 9.5 up on the Phillies. The Nats are a further 4.5 up on Atlanta.

At this point, the Nationals are 58-39, which is a .598 pace. If they only play .500 ball from this point, here's what the rest of the East would have to do to match their records:

Nationals 91-71 (assuming a 33-32 record for the rest of the season)

The Braves are at 54-44 and would need to go 37-27 to tie the Nats. That's a .578 winning percentage - not much more than their current .551 pace.
The Mets are at 47-51 and would need to go 44-20 to tie the Nats. That's a .688 winning percentage - more than 2 out of 3.
The Marlins are at 45-53 and would need to go 46-18, for a .719 percentage.
The Phillies are at 45-54 and would need to go 46-17 for a .730 percentage.

Making up ground on the Nats could be even more difficult if they can feast on their upcoming schedule. They have 4 at the Brewers, who have lost 6 in a row, followed by 3 vs. the Phillies and 4 vs. the Marlins back in DC, and then they travel to Houston for 4 games against the hapless Astros.

[Olympic Fan]

Ostler, a SF Chron sports columnist, looks at the dilemma A's owners Lew Wolff and John Fisher have wrought for themselves. The A's are on a hot streak that seems to be counter to the owners' desire to move the team to San Jose. Ostler calls it a lightning bolt from the Big Athletic in the Sky.



Ostler fears the worst, as have I in this very thread. But he is at least amused by the fact that the team's performance may well defeat the Wolff-Fisher 'proof' that Oakland can't support an MLB team. Plus, as he says, if they bust up this team, they can never be trusted again. Frankly, I don't trust them anyway.

Hmm,
What a plot for a baseall movie ...a crass owner inherits a money-losing team and in order to move it to a more lucrative location, the owner designs the team to fail. But lo and behold, the bunch of nobodies catches fire and makes a run at the pennant ...

Just to update a couple of things:

--The Yankees will NOT trade for a third baseman to replace A-Roid, according to Cashman. And they are not promoting Branyan either. Instead, they've given the job to Chavez and promoted Ramiro Pena, a light hitting shortstop, to fill A-Roid's roster spot.
-- As for Nix vs. Ichiro, Blue in the Face might be right in calling me out for saying Nix was "significantly" better at the plate this year than Ichiro. That might be a bit strong -- although after tonight (when Nix won the game for the Yankees with a bases-loaded pinch hit double in the eighth), Nix has an OPS of .723 to Ichiro's .642. A good bit of that s due to park effects. But it does indicate what a lame offensive player Ichiro has become.

[JBDuke]

Hmm,
What a plot for a baseall movie ...a crass owner inherits a money-losing team and in order to move it to a more lucrative location, the owner designs the team to fail. But lo and behold, the bunch of nobodies catches fire and makes a run at the pennant ...

"Good morning, gentlemen, and welcome to another season of Indians baseball. "

There's a discussion about great quotable movies over in the Princess Bride thread, but this one has gotta be one of my favorite sources of quotes.

"Just a reminder, fans, comin' up is our "Die-hard Night" here at the stadium. Free admission to anyone who was actually alive the last time the Indians won a pennant."

And Harry Doyle has ALL of the best lines. :-)

[Olympic Fan]

"Good morning, gentlemen, and welcome to another season of Indians baseball. "

There's a discussion about great quotable movies over in the Princess Bride thread, but this one has gotta be one of my favorite sources of quotes.

"Just a reminder, fans, comin' up is our "Die-hard Night" here at the stadium. Free admission to anyone who was actually alive the last time the Indians won a pennant."

And Harry Doyle has ALL of the best lines. :-)

"Ju-u-u-st a liottle bit outside"

[burnspbesq]

The NL East is looking more and more like a 2 team race at this point..

That may be premature. Matt Harvey was spectacular in his major league debut for the Mets tonight; six innings, no runs, 11 strikeouts (and two hits just for giggles). If he can keep his finger in the dike until Santana and Gee get back ...

Which creates a moral dilemma for Met fans who are also Duke fans, because, you see, Harvey is a Tarheel.

If the Mets can go 7-3 or better on the 10-game road trip to Arizona, SF, and SD that begins tonight, they aren't quite dead. The cart will have to come 'round again another time.

[kmspeaks]

For the first time since August 22 of last year the Braves have won a game on Monday with an 8-2 victory over the Marlins. That's now 6 in a row since Chipper Jones has joined twitter. The power of social media

[Olympic Fan]

The trade deadline is 4:30 p.m. today (Tuesday).

The Braves pulled the trigger on a fairly significant deal late Monday night, sending two minor league pitchers to Chicago for outfielder Reed Johnson and starting pitcher Paul Maholm.

Maholm is the key to the deal -- he's a 25-year old lefthanded starter who has been on fire lately. For the year, he's an okay 9-6 3.74 ERA. He was 3.64 ERA with a losing recordfor the Pirates last year. The Braves will inherit an option year on his contract -- they can keep him next season at $6.5 million. He really bolsters the Braves rotation, especially if he continues to pitch as he has the last month. The Vubs have won his last six starts and he's gotten the decision in five of them. He's gone at least eight innings in three of them. Overall, in this stretch, he's given up five earned runs in 44 innings, barely over a 1.00 ERA.

Johnson is a nice fourth outfielder. He's 35 years old, but he can play all three OF positions and boasts a .800 OPS. He's especially effective against lefthanded pitching.

The Braves gave up a very promising young arm in 21-year-old Arodys Vizcaino. They got him from the Yankees in the Javey Vasquez trade a couple of years ago and he made it to the majors for a cup of coffee last year after shooting through the Braves' system. Not sure of the reason, but he's not pitching this year -- either major or minors. Must be an injury -- maybe somebody else knows the nature of it.

The Braves also gave up Jave Chapman, a 25-year-old minor league pitcher with unimpressive numbers.

It's a gamble with Vizcaino's potential, but overall, I like the deal a lot. Maholm really shores up the rotation.

[Duvall]

The trade deadline is 4:30 p.m. today (Tuesday).

The Braves pulled the trigger on a fairly significant deal late Monday night, sending two minor league pitchers to Chicago for outfielder Reed Johnson and starting pitcher Paul Maholm.

Maholm is the key to the deal -- he's a 25-year old lefthanded starter who has been on fire lately. For the year, he's an okay 9-6 3.74 ERA. He was 3.64 ERA with a losing recordfor the Pirates last year. The Braves will inherit an option year on his contract -- they can keep him next season at $6.5 million. He really bolsters the Braves rotation, especially if he continues to pitch as he has the last month. The Vubs have won his last six starts and he's gotten the decision in five of them. He's gone at least eight innings in three of them. Overall, in this stretch, he's given up five earned runs in 44 innings, barely over a 1.00 ERA.

Johnson is a nice fourth outfielder. He's 35 years old, but he can play all three OF positions and boasts a .800 OPS. He's especially effective against lefthanded pitching.

The Braves gave up a very promising young arm in 21-year-old Arodys Vizcaino. They got him from the Yankees in the Javey Vasquez trade a couple of years ago and he made it to the majors for a cup of coffee last year after shooting through the Braves' system. Not sure of the reason, but he's not pitching this year -- either major or minors. Must be an injury -- maybe somebody else knows the nature of it.

The Braves also gave up Jave Chapman, a 25-year-old minor league pitcher with unimpressive numbers.

It's a gamble with Vizcaino's potential, but overall, I like the deal a lot. Maholm really shores up the rotation.

Any time you can give up one of your top three prospects for a fourth starter, you pretty much have to do it.

Vizcaino is out for the season after Tommy John surgery for elbow inflammation.

[Dev11]

Any time you can give up one of your top three prospects for a fourth starter, you pretty much have to do it.

When that guy is a former Pirate, you're guaranteed that he'll get better before he gets worse.

[Olympic Fan]

Just got back from lunch with a baseball guy -- and he was flabergasted over this trade.

He pointed out that just two weeks ago, the Braves apparently had a deal worked out to trade Delgado to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. The deal collapsed when Dempster vetoed the deal.

His point was that this is a MUCH better deal for the Braves in that (1) Delgardo is a much better prospect than Vizcaino; and Maholm is a better pickup that Dempster.

Now, Dempster has a better ERA and WHIP for the season than Maholm (although his 5-5 record is worse). He recently had a streak of 5 straight starts without giving up a run, although he's been hit hard in his last two outings, giving up seven runs in 12 innings.

The problem is (1) he's 35 years old (Maholm is 30) and (2) Dempster is a free agent after this season (Maholm has an option year at a relatively cheap $6.5 million).

So rather than give your second best pitching prospect (after Teheran) for a two month rental of a 35-year old, you send a damaged 4th or 5th best pitching prospect for a 30-year-old with an extra year's option ... and he's been pitching better lately anyway.

In addition, the Braves get a quality 4th outfieilder ... and give up a non-prospect minor leaguer.

PS I see the Dodgers just got Shane Victorino for prospects and the Giants got Hunter Pence for prospects. Hottest rumor is that the Yankees are closing in on Dempster (his old pitching coach, Larry Rotchchild, is now with NY).

[Blue in the Face]

Dempster to the Rangers. That's some serious one-upmanship going on in the AL West. (Hopefully I'm not jumping the gun this time).

And if you thought Jayson Nix was an underwhelming option for the Yankees at 3B, to you I say, Casey McGehee. At a cost of Chad Qualls (who we picked up for a player to be named later about a month ago), this makes the Ichiro trade look like big spending, so I guess why not, but it's hard to see this making much difference.

[weezie]

This whole "Tigers Get Royally Reamed By Umpire AGAIN" theme is becoming very tiresome.
Let our baseball ace pitch through steady rain, give up four earned runs and then call the game when we're at the plate, bases loaded, two outs in the sixth?
Grrrrrrrrrrr....

[COYS]

Just got back from lunch with a baseball guy -- and he was flabergasted over this trade.

He pointed out that just two weeks ago, the Braves apparently had a deal worked out to trade Delgado to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. The deal collapsed when Dempster vetoed the deal.

His point was that this is a MUCH better deal for the Braves in that (1) Delgardo is a much better prospect than Vizcaino; and Maholm is a better pickup that Dempster.

Now, Dempster has a better ERA and WHIP for the season than Maholm (although his 5-5 record is worse). He recently had a streak of 5 straight starts without giving up a run, although he's been hit hard in his last two outings, giving up seven runs in 12 innings.

The problem is (1) he's 35 years old (Maholm is 30) and (2) Dempster is a free agent after this season (Maholm has an option year at a relatively cheap $6.5 million).

So rather than give your second best pitching prospect (after Teheran) for a two month rental of a 35-year old, you send a damaged 4th or 5th best pitching prospect for a 30-year-old with an extra year's option ... and he's been pitching better lately anyway.

In addition, the Braves get a quality 4th outfieilder ... and give up a non-prospect minor leaguer.

PS I see the Dodgers just got Shane Victorino for prospects and the Giants got Hunter Pence for prospects. Hottest rumor is that the Yankees are closing in on Dempster (his old pitching coach, Larry Rotchchild, is now with NY).

After yet another start with diminished velocity, Tommy Hanson has been put on the DL for the Braves, making this trade even more significant. Maholm is essentially taking Hanson's spot in the rotation, now, with Medlen filling in for Delgado at the moment. If the bullpen struggles without Medlen as an option (Jurrjens is in the pen right now . . . scary!), it wouldn't be horrible for Delgado to come back up after a few starts in AAA to work on his breaking stuff. The Braves rotation has been performing well, recently (with the exception of Hanson, who has been the luckiest pitcher on the planet). The Braves don't have an ace, but, if Minor can continue his recent form, we have a rotation with essentially five number 3 starters with Delgado providing depth. If the offense can continue to perform at a high level, they still have a chance to catch the Nats.

Johnson may prove to be more valuable than people realize, too. With Diaz out with injury and underperforming even when he was playing, a quality righty off the bench who kills lefties is really valuable, especially since Fredi never wants to risk using David Ross as a bench bat. With good but not great pitching, the offense needs to be as well rounded as possible, and Johnson is a versatile weapon to have.

It is sad to see what injuries have done to Tommy Hanson. Despite Jurrjens success with ERA during the first half of last season, it was Hanson who was the better pitcher with much better peripherals (K-rate, FIP, etc.). The shoulder injury after the All Star break ruined last season for him, and it seems that the effects of that injury have reduced him from a potential ace to a 4th or 5th starter and a constant injury risk.

Finally, I think this is a good trade, but I also think Vizcaino will end up having a really good career. Some think he's destined for the rotation, but I think that he will end up being a deadly late-inning reliever. He's got a mean two-pitch arsenal and can throw it pretty hard. However, the trade was still worth it as Vizcaino probably won't be ready to help a big league club until mid-way through next season or possibly even 2014. For a team that is trying to win now like the Braves, it's a small price to pay.

[throatybeard]

This whole "Tigers Get Royally Reamed By Umpire AGAIN" theme is becoming very tiresome.
Let our baseball ace pitch through steady rain, give up four earned runs and then call the game when we're at the plate, bases loaded, two outs in the sixth?
Grrrrrrrrrrr....

If the 2011 playoffs are any indication, I'm pretty sure Justin Verlander causes rain. Send him down here, because the drought is catastrophic.

[Jim3k]

Justice Sonia Sotomayor began the game with the Bleacher Creatures, but was traded to a better seat.

And no. This is not PPB stuff.

[JasonEvans]

If you prescribe to some of the "Moneyball" theories of baseball, it is all about scoring runs and preventing your opponent from scoring runs. Seems pretty simple. The more runs you score, the fewer you allow... the more games you win.

One team has proven far and away the best at scoring runs and preventing them this season, as easily measured by run differential. That team has a run differential of +99. The Yankees, at +77, and the Nats, at +74, are the nest two best. They, as you might imagine, have the two best records in baseball.

So, the team that is +99, well it is not even in position to make the playoffs right now. It is the Cardinals and they have the 10th best record in baseball at 55-48. The two teams comfortably ahead of them in the Wild Card standings, the Braves and Pirates have a COMBINED run differential of +84, not even close to the Cards +99.

How is this possible? It just seems utterly implausible and unlikely. It also would seem to make it likely that the Cards will not fade down the stretch and may even have a big run left in them.

-Jason "I'll tell you what it says to me, it says that if the Cards can find their way to the playoffs, another big post-season run is not at all unlikely" Evans

[JasonEvans]

So, I was at the Nats-Phils game last night and saw the Phils just rock Stephen Strasburg.

After the game, a Nats friend of mine shared this article that talks a bit about how guys recovering from Tommy John surgery often seem to fade and weaken at mid-season the year after their surgery.

Strasburg needs only look a couple of lockers down from his at Jordan Zimmermann, who experienced this very same phenomenon one year ago. After missing most of 2010 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Zimmermann burst out of the gates early in 2011, posting a 2.66 ERA prior to the All-Star break. Then his command started to betray him and that ERA rose to 4.14 after the All-Star break.

Strasburg made only his fourth start since the break Tuesday night, and he's still got another six or seven to go before the Nationals shut him down for precautionary reasons (just as they did with Zimmermann last fall). But the trend is holding true so far. After posting a 2.82 ERA during the season's first half, Strasburg has seen that number rise to 4.43 since the Midsummer Classic.

If SS is going to be a mid-4s ERA player the 2nd half of the season, the Nats aren't nearly as formidable as we may have thoughts.

-Jason "worth noting, Bryce Harper is in a massive slump right now... he may need a trip back to AAA" Evans

[BlueDevil2K]

If you prescribe to some of the "Moneyball" theories of baseball, it is all about scoring runs and preventing your opponent from scoring runs. Seems pretty simple. The more runs you score, the fewer you allow... the more games you win.

One team has proven far and away the best at scoring runs and preventing them this season, as easily measured by run differential. That team has a run differential of +99. The Yankees, at +77, and the Nats, at +74, are the nest two best. They, as you might imagine, have the two best records in baseball.

Jason,

You forgot the Reds (+67), who have won 19 of 22 and now have the best record in baseball (+1.5 on Washington and +2 on the Yankees)

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/group/9

They obviously can't maintain that pace for another two months, but they're winning pretty much every night with their best player on the DL...

Brian