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  1. #201
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim3k View Post
    I simply make the observation that the East Coasters often have a narrow view when it comes to how good their players really are.
    I bow to your superior clarity. The East Coast teams were pathetic and at the top of the list sits my own Verlander. Holy smokes, what the what was going on with him?!? Maybe he tells Kate Upton to chill a while so he can remove his head from his own derriere. Either he's unable to ease into a simple inning or he has problems throwing to another catcher. Too intense for school. Sabathia teased JV into trying a rally cap but, properly humiliated, JV was having none of it. He dug the hole and no one was going to get the AL out of it.
    Freaky.

    PS Melky is a player I, too, have no bias against. But come on KC fans, booing Cano and his family? Weak.

  2. #202

    Oh, Come On, Jim

    The selection of Sandoval over Wright was a farce.

    You can argue over whether Dickey or Gonzalez should have been the starter, but there are no non-frivolous arguments for Cain.

  3. #203
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Walnut Creek, California
    Oboy! You guys are proving me right. Keep it up.

    But here's how the SF Chron plays it. And I didn't even read it this morning.

    The rest of the nation mocked, abused and laughed at Giants fans, calling them over-the-top homers for stuffing the ballot box and voting for anyone in orange and black, healthy or not.

    They got it right.
    As for ballot box stuffing, puh-leaze... Time honored in every stadium in the majors. And now the internet. Vote early, vote often. But here, LaRussa got it right and the fans did, too. Proof is in the pudding.

    All I'm sensing now is the smell of sour grapes coming from the winning team. Huh? Remember, I'm an AL, DH fan. My team (read "best pitcher") blew it big time. I'm not crying. The AL got waxed. And, it would appear, waxed by the best. And if you want to tell me Billy Butler didn't deserve his last minute DH appointment, I'll readily agree. Again, the proof is in the pudding.

    As I said...very amusing. And you guys are feeding into it. Why? What's your investment?

  4. #204
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Thankfully this has yet to happen on a baseball field.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  5. #205
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim3k View Post
    Oboy! You guys are proving me right. Keep it up.

    But here's how the SF Chron plays it. And I didn't even read it this morning.



    As for ballot box stuffing, puh-leaze... Time honored in every stadium in the majors. And now the internet. Vote early, vote often. But here, LaRussa got it right and the fans did, too. Proof is in the pudding.

    All I'm sensing now is the smell of sour grapes coming from the winning team. Huh? Remember, I'm an AL, DH fan. My team (read "best pitcher") blew it big time. I'm not crying. The AL got waxed. And, it would appear, waxed by the best. And if you want to tell me Billy Butler didn't deserve his last minute DH appointment, I'll readily agree. Again, the proof is in the pudding.

    As I said...very amusing. And you guys are feeding into it. Why? What's your investment?
    Ballot box stuffing happens all the time. Doesn't mean that Cabrera and Sandoval deserved to start over Wright and McCutchen or that a tiny sample size (1/2 game) proved anything right. By your reasoning, if Cabrera and Sandoval each went 0-2 and made an error then they wouldn't have been worthy. By the same logic Washington's decision to start Verlander was wrong because he got shelled?

    Cain over Dickey was a closer call IMO. Dickey has been slightly better but Cain has been really good too. One (baseball) thing that might have swayed LaRussa. Ruiz, with his huge mitt, was supposedly better prepared to catch Dickey's knuckler. Since Posey was starting Dickey needed to pitch in the later innings after Ruiz replaced Posey.
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  6. #206
    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    Ballot box stuffing happens all the time. Doesn't mean that Cabrera and Sandoval deserved to start over Wright and McCutchen or that a tiny sample size (1/2 game) proved anything right. By your reasoning, if Cabrera and Sandoval each went 0-2 and made an error then they wouldn't have been worthy. By the same logic Washington's decision to start Verlander was wrong because he got shelled?
    I would say this borders on the whole Jay Bilas stating that VCU didn't believe to be in the field and just b/c their performance in the tournament was impressive, it still had no bearing on whether the team deserved to be in the field on its pre-tournament credentials.

  7. #207
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    I would say this borders on the whole Jay Bilas stating that VCU didn't believe to be in the field and just b/c their performance in the tournament was impressive, it still had no bearing on whether the team deserved to be in the field on its pre-tournament credentials.
    1) Bilas wasn't wrong; and
    2) We are literally talking about seven plate appearances. Not seven months, not seven weeks, not seven games, but seven trips to the plate. Let's have some standards around here.

  8. #208
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    We are literally talking about seven plate appearances. Not seven months, not seven weeks, not seven games, but seven trips to the plate. Let's have some standards around here.

    We are literally talking about seven plate appearances... in a mostly meaningless game.

    -Jason
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  9. #209
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    North Carolina

    Alrighty then...

    Now that we're about to get started with the second half of the season, where do we predict our respective teams will finish? What are the biggest stories/surprises for the first half?

    Would anyone be up for picking one team and analyzing their first half successes/surprises, their failures/disappointments, potential moves they could make before the deadline, etc?

    I can do Baltimore and will have the post up sometime tonight.

  10. #210

    the second half

    Quote Originally Posted by dukebsbll14 View Post
    Now that we're about to get started with the second half of the season, where do we predict our respective teams will finish? What are the biggest stories/surprises for the first half?

    Would anyone be up for picking one team and analyzing their first half successes/surprises, their failures/disappointments, potential moves they could make before the deadline, etc?

    I can do Baltimore and will have the post up sometime tonight.
    Obviously, as a Yankee fan, I'm happy going into the second half of the season with the best record in baseball (half a game better than the Rangers) -- that's despite a mass of injuries to our pitching staff: Pineda for the entire season, Rivera for almost the entire season, Chamberlain for the entire season so far, Pettite and most recently Sabathia. That's our three best starters and our Hall of Fame reliever. Of that group, we should get Sabathia back next week, but beyond that, we'll be lucky to get Pettite and maybe Chamberlain back in September ... and it would be a miracle if Pineda or Rivera returns. Beyond that, we've been okay -- the biggest loss is Brett Gardner ... hoping he'll be back in a few more weeks.

    But beyond my Yankees drive for another pennant, the biggest second-half story I'll be following is Stephen Strasberg's innings count. The Nationals have been pretty adamant that they are going to shut him down at about 160 IP as they did to Zimmerman in September last year. It's a good strategy to protect a valuable young arm -- especially one that's been surgically repaired.

    Still, when they shut down Zimmerman a year ago, the Nats were out of the race. Right now, they lead the NL East by four games (five in the loss column). What happens if Strasberg hits 160 innings in the first week of September and the team is locked in a tight pennant race? What do you do with him if the team makes the playoffs?

    Right now, Strasberg is at 99 IP. As his current pace, he hits 160 at the start of September. Do you slow him down now (maybe give him an extra day's rest and limit his innings per game)? Do you forget your plans, pitch him normally and risk his arm? And maybe they do shut him down in early September and they still make the playoffs -- do you then use him in a key postseason game?

    It's going to be fun to watch ... and with the Braves (my second favorite team) right on their heels, I'll be watching closely.

  11. #211
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    we'll be lucky to get Pettite and maybe Chamberlain back in September ...
    Well Chamberlain has begun making minor league rehab appearances, so they only have 30 days to either activate him or shut him down again.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  12. #212
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post

    It's going to be fun to watch ... and with the Braves (my second favorite team) right on their heels, I'll be watching closely.
    The NL East is really interesting. The Nats certainly seem to be legit contenders now. But I think the Mets have reached the level, as well. It's a three team race with the Braves and the Mets chasing the Nats. As a Braves fan, I've been very happy with how the offense has been, over all, especially if McCann continues his hot streak when the second half starts, tomorrow. However, I am concerned about the starting pitching. Losing Beachy gives the Braves no bonafide ace. Hanson's shoulder problem from last season seems to have really affected his pitching, as his velocity and strikeout rates have dropped. He's still good, but more like a solid number three starter than a legit number 1 or 2 option in the rotation. Hudson is consistent, which is valuable in and of itself, but again, he's not a lights out pitcher. Meanwhile, Minor, a guy in whom I still have a lot of faith to eventually become a very good pitcher, is still prone to the big inning, and Delgado has been decent, but not a guy you'd want throw out there in a must win game. Jurrjens has had good results in his return despite giving up insane amounts of hits. I'm not sure that this trend will continue.

    For these reasons, I really hope the Braves get a deal done for someone like Grienke, Ben Sheets makes a miracle comeback, or both. With Greinke and a healthy Sheets replacing Jurrjens and one of Delgado and Minor (I'd go with replacing Delgado since I think Minor has a higher upside), I'd feel much more confident about the Braves either catching the Nats or at least grabbing one of the two Wild Card spots. Otherwise, I think pitching will be the achilles heel of the team.

    So, in summary, I see the Braves staying in the race in the NL East and making the playoffs if they can add an arm to the rotation.

  13. #213
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    the biggest second-half story I'll be following is Stephen Strasberg's innings count. The Nationals have been pretty adamant that they are going to shut him down at about 160 IP as they did to Zimmerman in September last year. It's a good strategy to protect a valuable young arm -- especially one that's been surgically repaired.

    Still, when they shut down Zimmerman a year ago, the Nats were out of the race. Right now, they lead the NL East by four games (five in the loss column). What happens if Strasberg hits 160 innings in the first week of September and the team is locked in a tight pennant race? What do you do with him if the team makes the playoffs?

    Right now, Strasberg is at 99 IP. As his current pace, he hits 160 at the start of September. Do you slow him down now (maybe give him an extra day's rest and limit his innings per game)? Do you forget your plans, pitch him normally and risk his arm? And maybe they do shut him down in early September and they still make the playoffs -- do you then use him in a key postseason game?

    It's going to be fun to watch ... and with the Braves (my second favorite team) right on their heels, I'll be watching closely.
    I am with you that this is an incredibly compelling storyline for the season.

    I see no way they go back on their pledge and continue to use him regularly and let him get to 200 innings or so on the season. They have been too adamant to not look bad if they go back on it. Plus, their reason for doing it is about Stras' health. How can they come out and essentially say that the long term health of this kid is not important to them. That would just look awful.

    So, the issue becomes how do they slow his innings to still have him available not just in September but also potentially in the playoffs? They have a good bullpen. I think they need to limit him to 6 innings per start. If they have a lead after 4 or 5, lift him even earlier than that.

    I wonder a bit about the notion of having him skip some starts and giving him lots of extra days off. Pitchers get used to throwing at certain times and have specified routines they follow in between starts. I wonder how it will affect Strasberg's effectiveness if he goes 4 days between starts then 5 days then back to 4, then 6, then 5... and so on.

    -Jason "The Nats have a decent lead over the Braves/Mets... not huge, but big enough so that they can probably afford to limit Stras more than if he was, for example, on the Pirates" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  14. #214
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue in the Face View Post
    Well Chamberlain has begun making minor league rehab appearances, so they only have 30 days to either activate him or shut him down again.
    Early reports are "clobba the joba" is throwing upwards of 97 MPH.

    On a separate note - doctors are now saying Mo has a chance to come back THIS year citing his fitness level and flexibility are in the top 10 percent of all athletes they've worked on. I personally think if there is ANY chance to return, he will. Stay tuned, this could get juicy in another month.

  15. #215
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    North Carolina
    First half record: 45-40 (2nd in the AL East - 7 GB )

    The Orioles are certainly in a better position that than they have been the last few years. Today in 2011, the O's were 16 games under .500 and 18 games out of first place. They've limped into the All-Star beak however, finishing 7-13 in their final 20 games (I blame RA Dickey since the slide happened after facing him ).
    Notes
    -Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen have been alone in leading the rotation while the rest of the starting pitching has been inconsistent. Currently, 3 of the 5 guys from the opening day rotation are in Triple-A Norfolk.
    -The bullpen leads the AL with a 2.75 ERA. Closer Jim Johnson has solidified the closing role while Darren O'Day and Pedro Strop have provided quality middle relief.
    -Adam Jones. Hitting .289 with 20 HR, Jones is blossoming into a star.
    -Injuries to LF Nolan Reimold and RF Nick Markakis have really hurt the O's offense. For the past month, utility infielders have been playing the corner outfield. In 16 games this season, Reimold had hit .313 with 5 HR, 10 RBI, .960 OPS. Reimold is likely out for the year with a neck injury. Markakis has been activated off of the DL and will play following the break.
    -Another injury to Brian Roberts (who was only hitting .182 in 17 games) may force him to miss the rest of the year, leaving the O's without a consistent lead-off hitter. JJ Hardy continues to slump, hitting .224 on the season.
    Potential Moves
    The acquisition of Jim Thome shows the O's are going to be buyers, but top prospects Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy are expected to be untouchable. It's reported that the O's will be going hard after Zack Greinke, while Astro Wandy Rodriguez is also a potential target.
    Where they Finish
    I think its entirely realistic that the O's pick up one of the wildcard spots and make the post season for the first time since 1996, especially if someone like Greinke is added. But their starting pitching has to improve. Pitchers Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz have struggled with consistency all year long, going from pitching 8 shutout innings against the Yankees to blowing 7 run leads to the Angels. As they are now down in Norfolk, it looks like they have run out of chances for right now. Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez have provided quality starts right before the break and Zach Britton may get a call-up.

  16. #216
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    About 150 feet in front of the Duke Chapel doors.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I am with you that this is an incredibly compelling storyline for the season.

    I see no way they go back on their pledge and continue to use him regularly and let him get to 200 innings or so on the season. They have been too adamant to not look bad if they go back on it. Plus, their reason for doing it is about Stras' health. How can they come out and essentially say that the long term health of this kid is not important to them. That would just look awful.

    So, the issue becomes how do they slow his innings to still have him available not just in September but also potentially in the playoffs? They have a good bullpen. I think they need to limit him to 6 innings per start. If they have a lead after 4 or 5, lift him even earlier than that.

    I wonder a bit about the notion of having him skip some starts and giving him lots of extra days off. Pitchers get used to throwing at certain times and have specified routines they follow in between starts. I wonder how it will affect Strasberg's effectiveness if he goes 4 days between starts then 5 days then back to 4, then 6, then 5... and so on.

    -Jason "The Nats have a decent lead over the Braves/Mets... not huge, but big enough so that they can probably afford to limit Stras more than if he was, for example, on the Pirates" Evans
    All indications here in Natstown are that the team will not alter the rotation or limit Strasburg's innings. They want to work him per "the plan" and won't be varying from it. They do coddle him a little bit, but they did that with Zimmermann last year, too. I think Strasburg will pitch every 5th day, he'll be allowed to go to 100 pitches or so per outing, if he's doing well, and maybe a bit more if he's doing really well. Strasburg thrives on routine, and they want to give him that. If they find an excuse to take him out, they will - like when he cut his finger last month while trimming his fingernail between innings. In that circumstance, it was bothering just one of his pitching grips, but Davey Johnson took him out immediately. But otherwise, he'll continue to get regular work and he will be shut down when he gets to 160-170 innings in the first half of September. The Nats' owners and management are in it for the long haul, and they will NOT muck around with their young ace in the interest of winning quickly. Similarly, don't expect the Nats to pick up a pitcher or a position player just for the rest of the season. They get last year's ace closer, Drew Storen, back in the bullpen probably this week. He won't close for now, as Tyler Clippard has been excellent in that role since given a chance to close, but Storen will be an enviable option in the pen setting up Clippard, and if Clippard falters, Storen can step back in. They also expect to get Jayson Werth back in a couple more weeks, so that should help the offense. How many other teams can say they're adding an ace reliever in the pen and a power bat in their outfield in the second half without making a trade or giving up anything?

    The Nats have two big questions to face. 1) What do you do with rookies Tyler Moore and Steve Lombardozzi when Werth comes back? They've been splitting time in the outfield in place of Werth lately, but when Jayson comes off the DL, you have Morse, Harper, and Werth who are going to play in the outfield every day. Moore and Lombo have made real contributions to the team this year. They belong with the major league squad. But how they'll play as they accumulate some rust on the bench is a very open question. 2) What do you do when Strasburg gets shut down? Chien Ming Wang was the hoped-for option there, but the first attempt to plug him into the rotation was a disaster. He was put back on the DL, but I'm not sure it was a real injury or just a means to get him more work "rehabbing". If he comes around, you plug him into the back of the rotation for a couple of weeks in September and go with a reduced rotation of Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Jackson (or Detweiler) in the playoffs. They could also have Gorzelanny start as the #5, or maybe bring John Lannan back from the minors, if he gets his head screwed on right.

    I think the Nats will make it into the playoffs, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they fall apart at some point. This is a team that has no playoff experience except for a few vets of other teams (Werth, Jackson). Davey Johnson has obviously been there before, but something tells me the Nats will have to learn lessons about playoff baseball the hard way. When the Yankees came to town for a big, hyped series during interleague play in June, the Nats didn't handle the pressure well. They got swept by the Yankes, even though they had been tearing up the rest of the AL East. Pessimistically, I could see the Nats slipping a bit and losing the division to the Mets or the Braves, but probably still getting in as a wild card. And I'd expect them to lose pretty quickly when the playoffs start. Optimistically, I could also see the Nats holding off the rest of the NL East and challenging to get to the NLCS, but I'd be really surprised if they actually won the pennant.
    JBDuke

    Andre Dawkins: “People ask me if I can still shoot, and I ask them if they can still breathe. That’s kind of the same thing.”

  17. #217

    strasburg

    No link, but I was watching Baseball Tonight tonight (I'm hungry for the game to start again ... what's with this extra day off?) and they were discussing the Strasburg situation. They played a sound bite from the Nats' VP of baseball operations who insisted that no matter what the race and what the standings, they will shut Strasburg down when he gets to 160 ibnnings. He vowed that they would not risk his arm to make the playoffs or to win a pennant.

    Peter Gammons -- not always right, but a guy whose opinion I respect -- said that originally he didn't believe the Nats -- that he was sure that in the heat of the race, they'd keep Strasvurg in the rotation -- but he's become more and more convinced that they WILL shut him down at or about 160 IP.

  18. #218
    Why use innings pitched as the number? Aren't they actually concerned with number of pitches? Innings is just a proxy for pitches ... but eveything is counted in baseball nowadays, so it seems they could have an exact pitch count they don't want him to go over.

    What are the average number of pitches per batter faced in MLB? What is SS's number of average pitches per batter faced?

  19. #219
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Why use innings pitched as the number? Aren't they actually concerned with number of pitches? Innings is just a proxy for pitches ... but eveything is counted in baseball nowadays, so it seems they could have an exact pitch count they don't want him to go over.

    What are the average number of pitches per batter faced in MLB? What is SS's number of average pitches per batter faced?
    Across mlb, the average pitches per plate appearance is 3.82. In the NL, it's 3.80. Strasburg so far has been at 4.0. He does not currently rank very high in total pitches thrown, 43rd in the NL with 1600 pitches thrown, but he does rank very high in pitches per batter, 8th among qualified NL pitchers.

    Last year Zimmerman was shut down after throwing 2464 pitches (in 161 innings), and was more efficient than Strasburg has been so far this season, averaging 3.71 per plate appearance.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  20. #220
    Thanks. Where are the pitch stats coming from?

    So, SS has 1600 pitches in 99 innings = 16.16 pitches per inning.
    If he keeps that pace up for 160 innings = 2586 pitches.

    Yet, Zimmerman was shut down after 2464.

    So, Stausburg may throw 122 more pitches than Z, yet be at the same innings (160 to 161).
    122/2464 = 5% more pitches for SS.

    Does that mean Z could have gone 5% further last year?

    That SS should be shut down even earlier than 160 given he'll reach Z's pitch total before then?

    Or, does it mean that all this "shut 'em down" stuff is arbitrary nonsense -- and they should just see how the pitcher's feeling and throwing and play it by ear?

    Is there some study that shows x% of all serious arm blowouts come during innings 160+ (or, more accurately, pitches XXX+ in a season)?

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