Rodney Hood Transferring

[CDu]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think Rasheed projects as more of a combo guard (2/1) than a wing (2/3), at least longer term. His length and athleticism will enable him to play some 3, especially on this year's team, but I don't think that is the expectation over the course of his career, particularly if our 2013 recruiting goes as well as hoped.

Yes, he's a 2/1. But we'll have a junior Cook and a senior Thornton at PG already, so I'd expect Sulaimon to get a large chunk of his minutes at the 2. My post was a discussion of the 120 minutes at the 2, 3, and 4 positions. In the scenario I presented, we'd have at least 6 guys competing for minutes at those 3 positions. I wasn't saying that Sulaimon would be competing directly with Murphy/Parker/Jefferson for minutes. I was saying that all of those guys will be indirectly competing for the limited supply of minutes available at those 3 spots on the floor.

If you take away Sulaimon's minutes from the 2 and put them at PG, that takes away from minutes from Thornton and Cook. And in my scenario, I'm assuming 0 minutes for a senior Hairston at PF. And I wasn't considering any minutes for Dawkins, either. It could make for a very talented but very crowded roster. And it would likely result in some folks being unhappy with their playing time.

That being said, if I have to choose between not enough talent and too much talent, I'll take the too much talent.

[luvdahops]

Yes, he's a 2/1. But we'll have a junior Cook and a senior Thornton at PG already, so I'd expect Sulaimon to get a large chunk of his minutes at the 2. My post was a discussion of the 120 minutes at the 2, 3, and 4 positions. In the scenario I presented, we'd have at least 6 guys competing for minutes at those 3 positions. I wasn't saying that Sulaimon would be competing directly with Murphy/Parker/Jefferson for minutes. I was saying that all of those guys will be indirectly competing for the limited supply of minutes available at those 3 spots on the floor.

If you take away Sulaimon's minutes from the 2 and put them at PG, that takes away from minutes from Thornton and Cook. And in my scenario, I'm assuming 0 minutes for a senior Hairston at PF. And I wasn't considering any minutes for Dawkins, either. It could make for a very talented but very crowded roster. And it would likely result in some folks being unhappy with their playing time.

That being said, if I have to choose between not enough talent and too much talent, I'll take the too much talent.

Agreed. I think we may be splitting hairs a bit (or at least I am), but if we get that recruiting haul for 2013, I would expect Tyler to get squeezed out of the rotation too. Meaning Rasheed would be the backup at PG, in addition to a likely starter at SG.

[jimsumner]

Sulaimon may be that rare player who can be effective at the 1, 2 and 3, at the collegiate level. Jon Scheyer comes to mind.

Assuming Dawkins doesn't play this season, it will be interesting to see how Duke allocates minutes at the 3. Murphy is the presumptive starter. When he's sitting, does Duke go big and play Jefferson or go small and play Sulaimon?

Likely, we'll see both options used and matchups will be a factor.

But playing Sulaimon at the 3 might be Duke's best option for getting he and Curry on the floor at the same time.

[CDu]

Agreed. I think we may be splitting hairs a bit (or at least I am), but if we get that recruiting haul for 2013, I would expect Tyler to get squeezed out of the rotation too. Meaning Rasheed would be the backup at PG, in addition to a likely starter at SG.

Sure, so that leaves at least 5 guys competing for ~100-105 minutes at the 2-4 spots, assuming no minutes for seniors Thornton and Hairston (at PF, at least), assuming Dawkins doesn't redshirt, and assuming we don't get Julius Randle (who would take a lot of the PF minutes).

[luvdahops]

Sure, so that leaves at least 5 guys competing for ~100-105 minutes at the 2-4 spots, assuming no minutes for seniors Thornton and Hairston (at PF, at least), assuming Dawkins doesn't redshirt, and assuming we don't get Julius Randle (who would take a lot of the PF minutes).

Haven't seen him play but Randle sounds much more like a 5 in our system. Though he is described as having face-up skills and the ability to take defenders off the bounce, Julius is also comfortable in the low post. He is also 6'9" 245 and apparently still growing and filling out. So maybe a cross Brand and Boozer.

[CDu]

Haven't seen him play but Randle sounds much more like a 5 in our system. Though he is described as having face-up skills and the ability to take defenders off the bounce, Julius is also comfortable in the low post. He is also 6'9" 245 and apparently still growing and filling out. So maybe a cross Brand and Boozer.

So in that scenario Marshall and Hairston become the ones squeezed out of playing time. Basically, if we get Hood, Parker, and Randle (which would be unquestionably a good thing for the on-court product in 2013-2014, and obviously is not a given), then there will be at least 2 guys (possibly 3 or 4) who were either McDonald's All-Americans or top-30 recruits (or both) that are going to be pretty unhappy with their playing time. There are only 200 minutes to go around, so if we have 11 heavily-recruited players on the roster, a few guys are going to be the odd men out.

Again, in the short term, that's a great problem to have, as it means we have 10-11 highly-recruited, very talented players on the roster. So that team would be really really good. But the transfer risk is something that we'll probably have to deal with if that's the case. As well as the potential for negative recruiting ("Don't go to Duke, they'll just recruit over you and you'll be a backup").

[Steven43]

Agreed. I think we may be splitting hairs a bit (or at least I am), but if we get that recruiting haul for 2013, I would expect Tyler to get squeezed out of the rotation too. Meaning Rasheed would be the backup at PG, in addition to a likely starter at SG.

I don't think Tyler was recruited as anything other than a backup at point. Maybe even a backup to the backup. Most programs that compete at the top level--with the notable exception of Kentucky and possibly a few others--need capable, dedicated guys like Tyler who practice as hard as they play and are ready to step in and do well without whining and complaining about a lack of playing time. Only schools like Kentucky--which gets three or four top 25 ranked players every year--can regularly compete for Final Fours without having Tyler Thorntons on their team. Ideally, as far as I'm concerned as a Duke fan, Tyler (and Josh) would get very little playing time. That would mean that Duke is really REALLY good.

[CDu]

I don't think Tyler was recruited as anything other than a backup at point. Maybe even a backup to the backup. Most programs that compete at the top level--with the notable exception of Kentucky and possibly a few others--need capable, dedicated guys like Tyler who practice as hard as they play and are ready to step in and do well without whining and complaining about a lack of playing time. Only schools like Kentucky--which gets three or four top 25 ranked players every year--can regularly compete for Final Fours without having Tyler Thorntons on their team. Ideally, as far as I'm concerned as a Duke fan, Tyler (and Josh) would get very little playing time. That would mean that Duke is really REALLY good.

Lumping Hairston and Thornton together is a bit misleading. Remember that Hairston was a top-30 recruit. He just seems like less of a prospect because he's not had a big role so far in his career. I very much doubt he was recruited by Duke with the idea of him being a 4-year backup. With Thornton, I think that's a more realistic scenario. He's an unselfish team guy, and fit in nicely behind Irving and Cook at the PG spot.

[luvdahops]

So in that scenario Marshall and Hairston become the ones squeezed out of playing time. Basically, if we get Hood, Parker, and Randle (which would be unquestionably a good thing for the on-court product in 2013-2014, and obviously is not a given), then there will be at least 2 guys (possibly 3 or 4) who were either McDonald's All-Americans or top-30 recruits (or both) that are going to be pretty unhappy with their playing time. There are only 200 minutes to go around, so if we have 11 heavily-recruited players on the roster, a few guys are going to be the odd men out.

Again, in the short term, that's a great problem to have, as it means we have 10-11 highly-recruited, very talented players on the roster. So that team would be really really good. But the transfer risk is something that we'll probably have to deal with if that's the case. As well as the potential for negative recruiting ("Don't go to Duke, they'll just recruit over you and you'll be a backup").

A few guys will definitely be odd men out. I could foresee a starting lineup of Cook (Jr), Sulaimon (So), Alex (So), Parker (Fr) and Randle (Fr), with Hood (Jr), Amile (So), Marshall (So) and Jones (Fr) all seeing regular minutes (the latter two squeezed a bit in tight games). So that leaves Josh and Tyler as the odd men out, which seems reasonable from a talent standpoint. Keep in mind also that Parker and Randle are both likely one and dones, and all but two of the 9-man rotation above would be underclassmen.

[CDu]

A few guys will definitely be odd men out. I could foresee a starting lineup of Cook (Jr), Sulaimon (So), Alex (So), Parker (Fr) and Randle (Fr), with Hood (Jr), Amile (So), Marshall (So) and Jones (Fr) all seeing regular minutes (the latter two squeezed a bit in tight games). So that leaves Josh and Tyler as the odd men out, which seems reasonable from a talent standpoint. Keep in mind also that Parker and Randle are both likely one and dones, and all but two of the 9-man rotation above would be underclassmen.

1. That's assuming that Dawkins doesn't redshirt.
2. That also assumes that Marshall (a third-year sophomore former McDonald's All-American) and Jefferson (a sophomore and former McDonald's All-American) would be happy with about 15 mpg (I'm assuming Randle and Parker would each get 25 mpg)
3a. Hood (a top-20 recruit and fourth year junior) would be okay with about 20 mpg backing up Sulaimon and Murphy, and Jones (a top-30 recruit) would be okay with 5-10 mpg.
3b. Hood and Jones would each be okay with 10-15 mpg.

So in that scenario, at least 1 top-30 recruit gets no playing time (two if Dawkins redshirts) and 3 others are probably going to be disappointed with their minutes.

[luvdahops]

1. That's assuming that Dawkins doesn't redshirt.
2. That also assumes that Marshall (a third-year sophomore former McDonald's All-American) and Jefferson (a sophomore and former McDonald's All-American) would be happy with about 15 mpg (I'm assuming Randle and Parker would each get 25 mpg)
3a. Hood (a top-20 recruit and fourth year junior) would be okay with about 20 mpg backing up Sulaimon and Murphy, and Jones (a top-30 recruit) would be okay with 5-10 mpg.
3b. Hood and Jones would each be okay with 10-15 mpg.

So in that scenario, at least 1 top-30 recruit gets no playing time (two if Dawkins redshirts) and 3 others are probably going to be disappointed with their minutes.

Totally spaced on Andre, which would further scramble the mix for sure. At 15mpg, Marshall would be playing 2-3x as much as he likely will this year and be in line to start as a junior and senior. For a borderline McD (many analysts had him ranked outside the Top 25) at a top flight program, that is a totally reasonable progression. Amile is a little more complicated, as I think he should get 15mpg and maybe more this year, and would therefore be going sideways if not taking a step back in the above scenario. He would still be in line to start at the 4 as a junior and senior though.

At the end of the day, while any of these scenarios may have some plausibility, they all seem to suggest that Hood winding up at Duke might be a longshot, especially if Andre does redshirt.

[Channing]

Lumping Hairston and Thornton together is a bit misleading. Remember that Hairston was a top-30 recruit. He just seems like less of a prospect because he's not had a big role so far in his career. I very much doubt he was recruited by Duke with the idea of him being a 4-year backup. With Thornton, I think that's a more realistic scenario. He's an unselfish team guy, and fit in nicely behind Irving and Cook at the PG spot.

Wow, I went back and checked RSCI, and there is Hairston at #32, right between Dion Waiters and Terrence Ross. Nothing I would like more than to see Josh come into his own this year as a highly touted prospect.

[Steven43]

Wow, I went back and checked RSCI, and there is Hairston at #32, right between Dion Waiters and Terrence Ross. Nothing I would like more than to see Josh come into his own this year as a highly touted prospect.

I suspect the reason you wrote 'Wow' is because Josh does not seem to have nearly the athletic ability and/or skill set that you would expect a player of that high ranking to have. He looks to be more on the level athletically of Tyler Thornton (ranked outside the top 100) or maybe Jamal Boykin (ranked barely in the top 100). After seeing him play in person many times over the last two seasons I am more surprised than ever that he achieved a 30-ish ranking. I just don't see how Josh can be expected to take much of a step forward as a player during the next two years when he has yet to display any standout skills nor anything more than an average level of athleticism. A Casey Sanders-type college career perhaps?

[luvdahops]

I suspect the reason you wrote 'Wow' is because Josh does not seem to have nearly the athletic ability and/or skill set that you would expect a player of that high ranking to have. He looks to be more on the level athletically of Tyler Thornton (ranked outside the top 100) or maybe Jamal Boykin (ranked barely in the top 100). After seeing him play in person many times over the last two seasons I am more surprised than ever that he achieved a 30-ish ranking. I just don't see how Josh can be expected to take much of a step forward as a player during the next two years when he has yet to display any standout skills nor anything more than an average level of athleticism. A Casey Sanders-type college career perhaps?

I agree that Josh would appear to be similar to Tyler in terms of raw talent and potential. It is also my view, as someone who has followed college hoops recruiting pretty closely for over 20 years, that the level of precision in rankings seems to fall off fairly dramatically after the Top 10-15 in any given class, around which there is generally pretty good consensus. To put it differently, there is usually a much starker, more discernable difference between a "Top 10" and a "Top 30-40" recruit than there is between that "Top 30-40" guy and a "Top 100" guy. In addition, the range of impact among guys rated in the say the 30-50 range is usually quite a bit wider than among the Top 15 or so, and not necessarily any tighter than the range of impact among those rated 51-100.

[ChillinDuke]

I have not forgotten about Josh. I think he has a real opportunity this year.

With the board chirping about the possible addition of Hood (next year), Murphy being able to eat a few minutes at the 4, Ryan Kelly figuring out his strengths, the signing of Amile Jefferson, and the improved versatility of next year's team, I think Josh has been swept under the carpet to some extent. On the topic of versatility, I think Josh can add something to this team that no one else can: a mid-range player.

It's something of a lost art. Especially in college. You pretty much have your big men playing at or near the basket, and your smaller guys either driving to the rim or jacking threes. I truly think Josh has the ability to play the foul-line extended region as a screen-and-roller, pop out shooter, and even drive to the hoop when the situation dictates. You can tell he has a keen desire out there, and a motor that never seems to stop. I think he has a real opportunity to add something valuable to this team next year and not just be a mop-up guy.

Then again, the list of guys on previous Duke teams with a similar opportunity that didn't pan out isn't short, I reckon. But I, for one, still have a buy-and-hold strategy on Hairston.

- Chillin

[ricks68]

I really think that Josh may become our Nate Dog when it counts. He sometimes scores real sneaky-like when we need it, and seems to be developing a way of accumulating points without being noticed that much. It also seems to me that he has been becoming very reliable. The glue guy.

ricks

[dchen09]

So on the flip side of Hood's decision is what OSU will have in 2014.
They'll have the following (just a quick search of scout/espn database):
PG) Craft (So), Scott (Fr)
SG) Smith (So), Della Valle ('12)
SF) Thompson (Fr), Ross (Fr)
PF) Thomas (So)*, Williams (Fr), Loving ('13)
C) McDonald (Fr)

Compared to Duke (assuming Dawkins redshirt):
PG) Cook (Fr), Thornton (So)
SG) Sulaimon ('12), Jones ('13)
SF) Murphy ('12), Dawkins (Jr*)
PF) Hairston (So), Jefferson ('12)
C) Plumlee ('12)

It looks like OSU might be even more stacked in the wings than Duke. Lenzelle Smith already plays a high number of minutes on the wing while Sam Thompson does not play an insignificant number of minutes (10 mpg). Smith is slightly small so I'm not sure how much competition he will be for Hood. Thompson on the other hand is long and 6'6. Ross himself has a pretty high upside so its not inconceivable that he might blow up at the wing later. He also is the same size as Hood. If you factor in the 4, Amir Williams (a 6'9 skinny 4* recruit) played spot minutes but he got more as the season progressed. I don't really consider Deshaun Thomas to be a factor since he will likely jump to the NBA next year.

Duke on the other hand will have Sulaimon, Murphy, Jefferson, and Dawkins (if he stays) as the main guys on the wings. Murphy might have a similar skill set though its hard to compare since I haven't really seen either of their games enough. Sulaimon is 3-4in shorter than Hood so I'm not sure its much of a direct competition. Jefferson doesn't have the ballhandling right now to really play the 3 on offense. He also isn't super quick such that he wouldn't be particularly defending other wings. I don't really think Jones will be a be factor his freshmen year because he is fairly 1 dimensional right now as a shooter. If he adds athleticism, defense, and ballhandling, maybe that will change but it's moot point right now.

In the end, I think it really depends on who's system is a better fit for Hood. For us (or rather Coach K), its a question of would we rather have 1 year of Hood (he is projected to go high in the draft in 2014), or 1 year of Parker. I'm not sure anyone else we're recruiting (maybe Young) is really capable of stepping in and competing with a Junior Hood and Junior Murphy.

[luvdahops]

So on the flip side of Hood's decision is what OSU will have in 2014.
They'll have the following (just a quick search of scout/espn database):
PG) Craft (So), Scott (Fr)
SG) Smith (So), Della Valle ('12)
SF) Thompson (Fr), Ross (Fr)
PF) Thomas (So)*, Williams (Fr), Loving ('13)
C) McDonald (Fr)

Compared to Duke (assuming Dawkins redshirt):
PG) Cook (Fr), Thornton (So)
SG) Sulaimon ('12), Jones ('13)
SF) Murphy ('12), Dawkins (Jr*)
PF) Hairston (So), Jefferson ('12)
C) Plumlee ('12)

It looks like OSU might be even more stacked in the wings than Duke. Lenzelle Smith already plays a high number of minutes on the wing while Sam Thompson does not play an insignificant number of minutes (10 mpg). Smith is slightly small so I'm not sure how much competition he will be for Hood. Thompson on the other hand is long and 6'6. Ross himself has a pretty high upside so its not inconceivable that he might blow up at the wing later. He also is the same size as Hood. If you factor in the 4, Amir Williams (a 6'9 skinny 4* recruit) played spot minutes but he got more as the season progressed. I don't really consider Deshaun Thomas to be a factor since he will likely jump to the NBA next year.

Duke on the other hand will have Sulaimon, Murphy, Jefferson, and Dawkins (if he stays) as the main guys on the wings. Murphy might have a similar skill set though its hard to compare since I haven't really seen either of their games enough. Sulaimon is 3-4in shorter than Hood so I'm not sure its much of a direct competition. Jefferson doesn't have the ballhandling right now to really play the 3 on offense. He also isn't super quick such that he wouldn't be particularly defending other wings. I don't really think Jones will be a be factor his freshmen year because he is fairly 1 dimensional right now as a shooter. If he adds athleticism, defense, and ballhandling, maybe that will change but it's moot point right now.

In the end, I think it really depends on who's system is a better fit for Hood. For us (or rather Coach K), its a question of would we rather have 1 year of Hood (he is projected to go high in the draft in 2014), or 1 year of Parker. I'm not sure anyone else we're recruiting (maybe Young) is really capable of stepping in and competing with a Junior Hood and Junior Murphy.

Amir Williams is a center not a 4. He and rising senior Evan Ravenel are expected to take over in the post for Sullinger this year. McDonald is more of a project. None among Della Valle, Ross or Loving were particularly highly rated recruits (much lower rated than Jefferson, Jones and Murphy), so there would seem to be a much clearer path for Hood to start at OSU (alongside Smith and Thompson, with Craft at PG and Williams at C) or at least play significant minutes, assuming Thomas leaves early.

[Kedsy]

In the end, I think it really depends on who's system is a better fit for Hood. For us (or rather Coach K), its a question of would we rather have 1 year of Hood (he is projected to go high in the draft in 2014), or 1 year of Parker.

Here's the disconnect for me. If Hood is good enough to be a high draft pick after one more year of college, then why are we talking about competition for minutes? Anybody who's that good is going to start and play big minutes, and it's the other guys who have to scramble for playing time. Having said that, if Hood is really good enough to be a high draft pick after one more year of college, why would he transfer now and have to wait an extra year before jumping to the League? Something is not adding up here.

[dchen09]

Amir Williams is a center not a 4. He and rising senior Evan Ravenel are expected to take over in the post for Sullinger this year. McDonald is more of a project. None among Della Valle, Ross or Loving were particularly highly rated recruits (much lower rated than Jefferson, Jones and Murphy), so there would seem to be a much clearer path for Hood to start at OSU (alongside Smith and Thompson, with Craft at PG and Williams at C) or at least play significant minutes, assuming Thomas leaves early.

I agree that Della Valle and Loving aren't really competition for Hood. However, Ross was ranked 44th RSCI while Hood was ranked 27th RSCI in the same recruiting class. In comparison, Murphy is ranked 49th in the same recruiting class while Jefferson is a year younger and Jones another year younger. Hood and Ross seem to have similar skillsets and similar body types so there maybe alot of overlap there. Murphy on the other hand seems to be slightly smaller and more of a 3/4. Correct me if I'm wrong though.