Premature speculation on next season's starting lineup

[wk2109]

I don't think anyone is saying they expect him to start right away at the 2, though I wouldn't be completely shocked about it either. I can say quite confidently that he won't start (or play at all) at the 3. I think I've been about as high as anyone on Sulaimon, and I'm thinking around 18-20mpg as a backup at the SG spot.

I think Sulaimon will very much be in the mix for reasonable minutes next year and will be a productive player. I don't think he'll be a star next year, and I don't think anyone is expecting such.

I'm almost certain there have been at least a few posts in this thread slotting Rasheed in as the starting 2. This article says "With Rivers’ departure, the best guess for Duke’s starting lineup is Plumlee, Kelly, Sulaimon, Curry and either Tyler Thornton or Quinn Cook at the point.": http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/04/...#storylink=cpy

I think 15-18 min as a backup wing is a reasonable guess. I personally expect less than that, especially in the beginning of the season, but obviously anyone is free to disagree with me.

[CDu]

I'm almost certain there have been at least a few posts in this thread slotting Rasheed in as the starting 2. This article says "With Rivers’ departure, the best guess for Duke’s starting lineup is Plumlee, Kelly, Sulaimon, Curry and either Tyler Thornton or Quinn Cook at the point.": http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/04/...#storylink=cpy

I think 15-18 min as a backup wing is a reasonable guess. I personally expect less than that, especially in the beginning of the season, but obviously anyone is free to disagree with me.

I'd take an article from a sportswriter with a grain of salt. Sulaimon will not be starting at the SF next year (which is what that writer suggest). I see an outside chance at him starting at the SG spot, but if he's starting at the SF spot that's evidence of a real problem with Murphy, Dawkins, and Gbinije. I'd be shocked if one of those three isn't starting.

[SoCalDukeFan]

I don't think speculation about the starting line up is that interesting. To me the better question is how will K and staff use their depth. Will we go 8 deep, 9, 10 ?

With no new recruits, and I expect none, we will inside:

Inside Players - Mason, Marshall, Ryan, Alex, Josh,
Outide Players - Andre, Seth, Rasheed, Mike
Point Guards - Quinn, Tyler

Who is not in the rotation?

SoCal

[dcar1985]

Im sorry but im having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that Murphy is almost assured to start at the 3 and may be the best player on the team...I get that K thinks he's good and that some cherry pick at the fact that he was a top 15 recruit almost 2 years ago before he decided to join his ORIGINAL class...But the only ball any of us has seen him play on the college level was during the China/Dubai trip and maybe I was watching something else but he didn't exactly tear it up out there..and to be blunt he was bad in the exhibitions. I think Dre will be given every opportunity as a Senior to start there at the beginning of the season, but as the year progresses I can see the job being done by committee with Alex and Mike earning more and more minutes. There's just not enough versatility to Dre's game for him to hold onto the spot IMO...

[Johnny Chill]

Im sorry but im having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that Murphy is almost assured to start at the 3 and may be the best player on the team...I get that K thinks he's good and that some cherry pick at the fact that he was a top 15 recruit almost 2 years ago before he decided to join his ORIGINAL class...But the only ball any of us has seen him play on the college level was during the China/Dubai trip and maybe I was watching something else but he didn't exactly tear it up out there..and to be blunt he was bad in the exhibitions. I think Dre will be given every opportunity as a Senior to start there at the beginning of the season, but as the year progresses I can see the job being done by committee with Alex and Mike earning more and more minutes. There's just not enough versatility to Dre's game for him to hold onto the spot IMO...

Murphy is not a lock to start. It's open competition between him, Gbinije, and Dawkins, well unless Bazz commits to Duke. Then Bazz will start and play major minutes at the 3.
I say the favorite to start is Dawkins and most likely to start there in the 1st game because 1. he has started there before, 2. he has the most experience, 3. he is a senior.
But I wouldnt be surprised if all 3 guys start at the 3 during the course of the season.

[CDu]

Im sorry but im having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that Murphy is almost assured to start at the 3 and may be the best player on the team...I get that K thinks he's good and that some cherry pick at the fact that he was a top 15 recruit almost 2 years ago before he decided to join his ORIGINAL class...But the only ball any of us has seen him play on the college level was during the China/Dubai trip and maybe I was watching something else but he didn't exactly tear it up out there..and to be blunt he was bad in the exhibitions. I think Dre will be given every opportunity as a Senior to start there at the beginning of the season, but as the year progresses I can see the job being done by committee with Alex and Mike earning more and more minutes. There's just not enough versatility to Dre's game for him to hold onto the spot IMO...

It's not cherry picking to note that Murphy was ranked in the top 15 in this year's class as of last summer. It's merely taking into consideration a data point. We know that he was among the top 15 in this class as of last summer, which puts him in company with Poythress, Goodwin, Harris, Warren, Ledo, and Pollard. And we know that Murphy has gained an advantage over those players by spending the past year practicing exclusively against major D-1 college players, getting superior weight training, and learning the Duke system. And we know that Coach K thinks he could be a 4-time All-ACC player (praise he doesn't throw around lightly). So I don't think it is unreasonable to expect good things from Murphy next year.

I agree that Murphy shouldn't be expected to be our best player. We have 2 All-ACC seniors and a third senior who averaged 12+ ppg last year. Until further notice, those 3 should be expected to be our 3 best players. But I don't see it as ridiculous to expect Murphy to be among our 5-6 best players, if not better.

[NSDukeFan]

I don't think speculation about the starting line up is that interesting. To me the better question is how will K and staff use their depth. Will we go 8 deep, 9, 10 ?

With no new recruits, and I expect none, we will inside:

Inside Players - Mason, Marshall, Ryan, Alex, Josh,
Outide Players - Andre, Seth, Rasheed, Mike
Point Guards - Quinn, Tyler

Who is not in the rotation?

SoCal

I have no idea who will not be in the rotation as I hope and expect that they will all be ready and able to be contributors next year.

[Troublemaker]

Confirmation from Murphy that redshirting was his idea: http://fayobserver.com/articles/2012...824?sac=Sports

A little extra info to help with these lineup predictions...

[FellowTraveler]

And we know that Coach K thinks he could be a 4-time All-ACC player (praise he doesn't throw around lightly). So I don't think it is unreasonable to expect good things from Murphy next year.

I've seen this suggestion several times before, but I've never seen the exact quote, and I've always assumed it to be a misunderstanding. Did Coach K really say he thinks Murphy could be a four-time all-ACC player? Or did he say he thinks Murphy could be someone who plays four years and makes an All-ACC team? Those are, obviously, very different things. I find it implausible that K would predict four years of all-ACC play for anyone, both because it's an extraordinarily unlikely accomplishment and because of the extraordinary pressure it would put on a kid.

The oldest reference to this concept I can find is a January 10 post by roywhite:

Nice feature on Alex on a recent Inside Basketball with Duke's Coach K
(it was on DirecTV channel 646 Saturday 1/7 at 9:30 AM, which may put it behind what is seen in the Triangle)
[...]
Coach K mentioned that Alex is the type of player who could be a 4-year starter and an All-Conference selection.

So, absent a direct quote to the contrary, I continue to doubt that K forecast four years of all-conference play from Murphy, and hope that expectations for Murphy don't soar unreasonably high, as I'd hate to see a solid beginning to his career seen as a disappointment based on a misinterpreted statement.

EDIT TO ADD: I do think this is a reasonable hope for Murphy:

I agree that Murphy shouldn't be expected to be our best player. We have 2 All-ACC seniors and a third senior who averaged 12+ ppg last year. Until further notice, those 3 should be expected to be our 3 best players. But I don't see it as ridiculous to expect Murphy to be among our 5-6 best players, if not better.

Of course, I have that hope for 6-7 players ...

[Johnny Chill]

And we know that Coach K thinks he could be a 4-time All-ACC player

I hope he doesnt mean Preseason All ACC

[dcar1985]

It's not cherry picking to note that Murphy was ranked in the top 15 in this year's class as of last summer. It's merely taking into consideration a data point. We know that he was among the top 15 in this class as of last summer, which puts him in company with Poythress, Goodwin, Harris, Warren, Ledo, and Pollard. And we know that Murphy has gained an advantage over those players by spending the past year practicing exclusively against major D-1 college players, getting superior weight training, and learning the Duke system. And we know that Coach K thinks he could be a 4-time All-ACC player (praise he doesn't throw around lightly). So I don't think it is unreasonable to expect good things from Murphy next year.

I agree that Murphy shouldn't be expected to be our best player. We have 2 All-ACC seniors and a third senior who averaged 12+ ppg last year. Until further notice, those 3 should be expected to be our 3 best players. But I don't see it as ridiculous to expect Murphy to be among our 5-6 best players, if not better.

Its definitely cherry picking...even though the technical term is "redshirt freshmen" it will be his second year in the program of course he has an advantage over incoming freshmen, hes a year older, has a year of practice w/ a D-1 team, etc etc...Why not compare him to his actual class and the players he came in with?!? If it was the other way around and he went from ranked 40th to ranked 15th after he reclassified im sure you would wanna throw that 40th ranking out the window...I don't recall K saying "4 year All Acc player" but ok...you still have to go out there and do it right? What have you SEEN that says I shouldn't temper my expectations?

FWIW I expect good things from Murphy also, but I don't expect him to be our best player and I don't expect him to be an All-ACC player next year....Never said anything about him being one of our best 5-6 players btw.

[CDu]

Its definitely cherry picking...even though the technical term is "redshirt freshmen" it will be his second year in the program of course he has an advantage over incoming freshmen, hes a year older, has a year of practice w/ a D-1 team, etc etc...Why not compare him to his actual class and the players he came in with?!? If it was the other way around and he went from ranked 40th to ranked 15th after he reclassified im sure you would wanna throw that 40th ranking out the window...I don't recall K saying "4 year All Acc player" but ok...you still have to go out there and do it right? What have you SEEN that says I shouldn't temper my expectations?

But what is his "actual" class? Many players these days enter high school a year later than they used to. I counted at least 5 of the top-20 this year as being essentially 5th year seniors. So why shouldn't Murphy's ranking in his 5th year senior class also be relevant data to consider?

I'm not saying to disregard his ranking from last year. Though I will say that he was more accurately about 35th (he didn't get a ranking from one of the services because he reclassified too late, and that hurt his point total in the composite rankings).

I'm just saying that we shouldn't disregard the other ranking. It isn't cherry picking if you're comparing him with the kids coming in to college this year (many of whom will start, and many of whom are 19 just like him).

FWIW I expect good things from Murphy also, but I don't expect him to be our best player and I don't expect him to be an All-ACC player next year....Never said anything about him being one of our best 5-6 players btw.

I'm not saying you said he'll be worthless. I don't think most people expect him to be our best player next year. I've seen maybe one or two people even hint at this, so I think you're arguing against a straw man here.

[dcar1985]

But what is his "actual" class? Many players these days enter high school a year later than they used to. I counted at least 5 of the top-20 this year as being essentially 5th year seniors. So why shouldn't Murphy's ranking in his 5th year senior class also be relevant data to consider?

I'm not saying to disregard his ranking from last year. Though I will say that he was more accurately about 35th (he didn't get a ranking from one of the services because he reclassified too late, and that hurt his point total in the composite rankings).

I'm just saying that we shouldn't disregard the other ranking. It isn't cherry picking if you're comparing him with the kids coming in to college this year (many of whom will start, and many of whom are 19 just like him).



I'm not saying you said he'll be worthless. I don't think most people expect him to be our best player next year. I've seen maybe one or two people even hint at this, so I think you're arguing against a straw man here.

His actual class would be whatever class he graduated and matriculated into college w/ which is 2011 not 2012...I get that there are kids doing it...Mike G was a 5th yr senior, Alex wasn't though he graduated HS in the same 4 years that most of us do...You can't compare him with incoming freshmen of 2012 cause he's not an incoming freshmen, how many of the top 100 2012 kids have spent the last year practicing w/ their team?!? Im pretty sure the answer is none.

Him being ranked 41st, or 35th or 40 whatever doesn't matter if he shows up next year ready to go, plenty of similarly and lower ranked kids make an impact every year...all im saying is its not really accurate to use that as reasoning for saying he's got a starting spot locked up or that he might be the best player on the team next year even without him playing a minute....I don't think most people think that either, im speaking to the few that do.

[CDu]

His actual class would be whatever class he graduated and matriculated into college w/ which is 2011 not 2012...I get that there are kids doing it...Mike G was a 5th yr senior, Alex wasn't though he graduated HS in the same 4 years that most of us do...You can't compare him with incoming freshmen of 2012 cause he's not an incoming freshmen, how many of the top 100 2012 kids have spent the last year practicing w/ their team?!? Im pretty sure the answer is none.

I can compare him to whomever I want to compare him to. There is no rule that says we can't compare players however we want to. And when comparing him to incoming freshmen, the #15 ranking (with the benefit of a year of practicing with their team) is a relevant point of comparison. And it suggests that there's no reason he can't be one of the elite freshmen this coming year.

Him being ranked 41st, or 35th or 40 whatever doesn't matter if he shows up next year ready to go, plenty of similarly and lower ranked kids make an impact every year...all im saying is its not really accurate to use that as reasoning for saying he's got a starting spot locked up or that he might be the best player on the team next year even without him playing a minute....I don't think most people think that either, im speaking to the few that do.

I don't think anyone is saying "he was the #15 prospect among guys coming out this year, so he's got a starting spot locked up or is likely to be the best player." People are saying "he was the #15 prospect among guys coming in this year, so don't write him off." So again, you're arguing against a straw man.

[dcar1985]

I can compare him to whomever I want to compare him to. There is no rule that says we can't compare players however we want to. And when comparing him to incoming freshmen, the #15 ranking (with the benefit of a year of practicing with their team) is a relevant point of comparison. And it suggests that there's no reason he can't be one of the elite freshmen this coming year.



I don't think anyone is saying "he was the #15 prospect among guys coming out this year, so he's got a starting spot locked up or is likely to be the best player." People are saying "he was the #15 prospect among guys coming in this year, so don't write him off." So again, you're arguing against a straw man.

Im speaking as far as ranking...there's a reason he was ranked in a new class when he switched...how is it relevant? Of course he'll be ahead of the curve compared to an incoming freshmen...he's been in college a year already.

But there are people who've said that...if your not one of them then relax, im not speaking to you...b/c besides the fact that I don't think still saying he was a top 15 player is accurate I've agreed that I think he makes and impact next year and that im not writing him off and that he might even get some starts next year and be apart of the rotation etc...

[CDu]

Im speaking as far as ranking...there's a reason he was ranked in a new class when he switched...how is it relevant? Of course he'll be ahead of the curve compared to an incoming freshmen...he's been in college a year already.

That's the point. There will be plenty of freshmen starting for major programs next year. Murphy was considered one of the best among the players in this year's class. And he has a year of experience already.

But there are people who've said that...if your not one of them then relax, im not speaking to you...b/c besides the fact that I don't think still saying he was a top 15 player is accurate I've agreed that I think he makes and impact next year and that im not writing him off and that he might even get some starts next year and be apart of the rotation etc...

I think you're misinterpreting what people have said and creating an argument that doesn't really exist. I haven't seen anyone say Murphy is a lock to start, and I've only seen one person even suggest the possibility (not probability) that Murphy will be the best player on the team.

[dcar1985]

That's the point. There will be plenty of freshmen starting for major programs next year. Murphy was considered one of the best among the players in this year's class. And he has a year of experience already.



I think you're misinterpreting what people have said and creating an argument that doesn't really exist. I haven't seen anyone say Murphy is a lock to start, and I've only seen one person even suggest the possibility (not probability) that Murphy will be the best player on the team.

Ok if you want to consider Alex an incoming freshmen and his ranking as a junior and ignore that he's been in college a year already and graduated 2011 not 2012 then go for it...So if he stayed class of 2012 and say his ranking dropped as a senior would you ignore that too and say well he WAS ranked 15th so thats were we should keep him...Mitch Mcgary was ranked #2 this year, I don't think anyone thinks hes the #2 player in the class today though

[CDu]

Ok if you want to consider Alex an incoming freshmen and his ranking as a junior and ignore that he's been in college a year already and graduated 2011 not 2012 then go for it...So if he stayed class of 2012 and say his ranking dropped as a senior would you ignore that too and say well he WAS ranked 15th so thats were we should keep him...Mitch Mcgary was ranked #2 this year, I don't think anyone thinks hes the #2 player in the class today though

Do you have any reason to assume he would have dropped in rankings had he stayed? Couldn't he just as easily have moved up?

[dcar1985]

Do you have any reason to assume he would have dropped in rankings had he stayed? Couldn't he just as easily have moved up?

No just hypothetical....definitely but seeing as his ranking went down after reclassifying and that's whats being discounted I went the other way...but I mentioned that earlier, if say he went from 15th as a junior in he 2012 class to top 5 in the 2011 class as a senior, im pretty sure you wouldn't be arguing that his ranking in his old class should matter, you would be perfectly fine with the top 5 ranking in the class he matriculated with

[CDu]

No just hypothetical....definitely but seeing as his ranking went down after reclassifying and that's whats being discounted I went the other way...but I mentioned that earlier, if say he went from 15th as a junior in he 2012 class to top 5 in the 2011 class as a senior, im pretty sure you wouldn't be arguing that his ranking in his old class should matter, you would be perfectly fine with the top 5 ranking in the class he matriculated with

I am simply using the #15 ranking because that is the data point I have for him with respect to incoming freshmen. If he would have stayed and fallen then so be it. He fell when he reclassified because of his slight frame (he needed the year of physical development as he was really skinny). And as such, he chose to redshirt. Thus, I never considered the 2012 ranking relevant because he didn't play this year. He wasn't physically ready, and as such it made sense for him to be rated lowerin last year's class.