Fouls per 40 minutes is more revealing than fouls per game. Thornton committed 5.3 fouls per 40 minutes, far worse than anyone else on the team except Hairston. Dawkins committed 3.3 fouls per 40; Seth 2.9, and Austin 2.7. People talk about Tyler Thornton as someone who commits a lot of fouls because he is someone who commits a lot of fouls.
That said, Thornton's foul rate improved as the season went on; my memory is that he was above 6 (!) fouls per 40 roughly halfway through the season. (And Dawkins' foul rate got a bit worse as the season progressed.)
Further to this point, Nick Foreman at Georgia Tech and Eric Swoope at Miami were the only players under 6'7" who played more than 5 mpg and fouled more frequently than Tyler. Swoope is a 6'6", 230 forward. Foreman played half as many minutes as Thornton did.
Further further to this point, Tyler committed 6.3 fouls per 40 as a freshman; Dawkins that year was the next highest backcourt player, and he was at 3.0. In Tyler's freshman and sophomore years, he fouled more often than any Duke backcourt player in the last seven seasons.
Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.
You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner
You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke
Sophomore Nolan Smith was pretty foul prone -- he committed 3.8 per 40 minutes. That isn’t extraordinarily bad, but it’s the worst foul rate for any Duke perimeter player in the past four years -- except, of course, Tyler Thornton.
That may help drive home just how foul-prone Thornton is. Other than Thornton, no Duke perimeter player has committed more than 3.8 fouls per 40 since 2008. Thornton committed 5.3 per 40 minutes last year, and 6.3 as a freshman.
EDIT: Jinx to everyone.
Did I miss something or Duke did not have a MVP award at their banquet for 2011-2012?
I realize not all lineups are created equaly but my count of times in one of the 8 lineups:
7 - MP2 and Alex
5 - Ryan, Seth and Quinn
4 - Sheed
3 - Dre
2 - Marshall
1 - Tyler and Josh
As far as tiers, I would go with:
A - MP2, Ryan and Seth (6 of 18, total 18) 30 MPG
B - Alex, Dre, Quinn, Sheed and Tyler (4 of 8, sub-total 20, total 38) 20 MPG
C - Josh and MP3 (1 each, sub-total 2, total 40) 5 MPG with Josh getting any extras rather than MP3 when Mason or Ryan or Alex are in foul trouble.
The B-tier play for different reasons and sometimes might play 15, sometimes 25 depending on the match-ups.
This may be a little generous to Sheed who is still in the freshman halo period of his career to be displaced by some other new recruit in later years if many board posters retain their Modus Operandi.
So all the counts are within one except Alex goes from 7 to 4 (-3) and Tyler goes from 1 to 4 (+3).
Thpough the tiers are alphabetical within tier, it's also the rank order I would use.
I would be OK with Alex 5 of 8 for 25 MPG and Tyler 3 of 8 for 15 MPG, may actually prefer it but did not want to use 10 different tiers for 10 players.
If you break it down by position:
C - Mason (Sr-30) Ryan (Sr-5) Marshall (RS Soph-5)
PF - Ryan (Sr-25), Alex (RS Soph-10), Josh (Jr-5)
SF - Dre (Sr.-20) Alex (RS Soph-15) Tyler (Jr-5)
SG - Seth (Sr-20) Sheed (Fr-10) Tyler (Jr-10)
PG - Quinn (Soph-20) Seth (Sr-10) Sheed (Fr-10)
Not sure if the proper designation for Alex and MP3 should be second year freshman or Red Shirt - Soph but point is they have one more year of practice than Sheed but one less year of game time than Quinn
It is amazing hot little respect the kid gets. Luckily one of the people who agree that Tyler deserves what he gets is Coach K. I can't wait to see the improvement he makes. I tried to point out a few other items, but it all just comes out insulting so I'll just leave it at that.
I think we know enough about the 2012 roster now to at least make some assumptions. If we get Parker and/or Jefferson they will most likely have a minor role this year. IMO Dukes potential success lies in Mason and Ryan. Ryan is not getting a lot of ink in this thread but I think he could even edge Mason for the Duke's MVP. He's going to get a lot of shots at the stretch 4 so he'll be in a good position to be our leading scorer. Hopefully as a senior he will take a leadership role on the court and be more assertive like he was in China and in the early season last year when he was our best player. He'll need to rebound a little better and sense where the help is coming from when he drives so he can get rid of the ball in time.
Mason is still the favorite to be our MVP. Duke needs to get Mason the ball and he needs to make good decisions. Running the offense through Mason doesn't mean he power dribbles in from the high post every possesion. He's got to make a quick move or find an open cutter or shooter. He is a superb interior passer so Ryan needs to move without the ball. Actually everyone needs to move well without the ball to find and opening. Pick and roll or give and go can work well with Mason if we can get him the ball in time and in position. If Mason scores 15 pts a game it will be huge. He can drive on any big but, like Ryan, he turns it over when the help comes. If he draws a double team then someone is open so find them. I'm sure that sounds a lot easier than it actually is though.
Seth Curry should also be a team leader on and off the court. He's not going to get to basket like AR but he can score from deep, mid-range and he's added a good floater in the lane. If Duke has given up on Seth as the PG then we are going to have Seth in the game with TT/QC giving us 2 undersized guards. I think IF Seth could be an effective PG for 10 or 15 minutes a game that would give Duke its best defensive lineup because Sheed and Dre could play some minutes at the 2 guard. But that is unlikely so we really need for Alex to earn 15 minutes a game at 3 to give us some size and rebounding and maybe another 5 MPG at the 4 spot. I think the starting wing will probably vary from game to game between Dre, Alex, and Sheed to a lesser extent. I don't expect Alex to be one of our 3 best players like some do as a freshman. I think Dre probably starts the most and if he can defend and not turn the ball over he will get the most minutes at the wing. Like some others I'm really pulling for Dre to have a big senior year.
PG is the big unknown. I hope QC is ready to defend and play more minutes but it seemed like he tweaked a knee almost every game he played major minutes in this year. He needs his quickness because I'm not sure he is even legitimately 6'1 and bigger guards shot over him and went around him easily last year. Also Thornton has gotten better every year as a shooter, leader and defender. He was actually doing a good job of defending without fouling on the perimeter at the end of the year and he has the ability to hurt you if you leave him open so I don't think Cook will have an easy time getting the job away from TT. Obviously we need Tyler to be a much better distributor if he is playing major minutes and that seems unlikely so once again the PG position is our biggest question and nobody really knows how that will shake out until the season starts.
As far as reserves Hairston did improve last year and I expect he will do so again. He has a decent jumper for a big man and he showed a quick move to the basket last year so he's going to get 10-15 MPG. Marshall will get some burn but also some DNP games depending on foul trouble. I think Kelly and Mason will play as long as they can stay in the game this year and I expect Kelly to move over to center mostly when Mason is out. Marshall needs to be an energy guy and learn to play Defense without fouling because, unless Parker surprises us, he is going to be our only center and the only player over 6'8 the following year.
Man I just hope our seniors come out and lead by example by laying it all on the line every game a la Singler next year. Can't wait to get it started!
I loved Wojo as a junior or senior, cringed every time he went on the floor as a freshman, and was content with him in a reserve role as a sophomore. Wojo actually did have some competition for the PG job as junior, b/c we had a senior Capel who, while not ideal for the position, had played it a decent amount his first three seasons. Wojo IMO made a big jump between his soph and junior years - most notably, he developed the ability to make open jumpers and keep defenses honest.
TT doesn't have that skill yet, as the VaTech game showed us - but then again, Wojo didn't have that ability as a soph either. My impression is that Wojo as a jr and sr was a better on-ball defender than TT is now. Wojo was indeed overrated as a defender but he was not as bad as he looked in the KY game. He was also never a great playmaker but he was a better game manager than TT is.
But again - that's comparing JR/SR Wojo to Soph TT. Soph Wojo and Soph TT are IMO very comparable players. If TT can improve his jumper enough to keep defenses honest and continue normal improvement in other areas, there's no reason he can't be a valuable asset. I tend to agree he's not a starting PG for an elite team, but there's no reason he can't be a steady contributor on a really good team.
Yes, Wojo was a better ballhandler than Thornton and a better shooter as he got older. Thornton is bigger and better at defending bigger players, while Wojo was better at defending smaller players. Thornton is probably a better off-ball defender than Wojo.
Wojo was a reasonable PG his junior and senior year, but he wasn't a difference-maker and could be a liability against better PG (which is why we lost in the tournaments his junior and senior years). The development of a jump shot made him functional on offense.
Basically, I see Thornton as a useful defender at SG and maybe SF if he can consistently hit the 3 pt shot. I don't see him as a viable option at PG. As you mention, Wojo was a better ballhandler and distributor than Thornton. Unless Thornton gets dramatically better in shooting, ballhandling, or distributing, I'm not sure he can be a viable option at PG.
TT may not be a viable starting PG for a final 4 caliber team ( I emphasize might because we don't know how good he can be yet) but he may still be our best option. Curry will improve his on the ball defense some but he's not likely to become a defensive stopper so I don't see QC playing big minutes along with Seth if he is a weak defender who is just as undersized as Seth regardless of his offensive ability. For all of the hand wringing - and I am guilty too - Duke was a pretty good offensive team for most of last year but no so much on defense. I also don't see Sheed starting or playing more minutes at 2 than Seth so we'll have the defense vs. offense tradeoff to work through once again.
This comment is under the heading, "The First Liar Doesn't Stand a Chance." Here is the list of Duke Final Four teams and the player whom I perceive to be the point guard:
In four of these years we did not have PGs that were remotely all-stars: Fred Schmidt, Denny Ferguson (the late, great Cornell prof), Johnny Harrell (also passed away) and Jeff Capel. And no, in 1963 and 1964 All-ACC Buzzy Harrison was not a PG -- passing was an alien act to Rev. Buzzy. In the latter two years cited, other players had more assists, which suggests that the starting PG was not a star. Spanarkel and Bender (who played only half the year) in 1978; Grant in 1994. In addition, Hurley's recognition came his last two years, not his first two.Code:Year Point Guard 1963 Fred Schmidt 1964 Denny Ferguson 1966 Steve Vacendak 1978 Johnny Harrell Spanarkel and Bender led in assists per game 1986 Tommy Amaker 1988 Quin Snyder 1989 Quin Snyder 1990 Bobby Hurley 1991 Bobby Hurley 1992 Bobby Hurley 1994 Jeff Capel Grant Hill led in assists 1999 William Avery 2001 Jason Williams 2004 Chris Duhon 2010 Jon Scheyer
sagegrouse
'There is no assertion so remote that some idiot (like me) won't build a table to challenge it.'
Yeah but my post was actually in response to CDU's statement that TT was not a viable PG next year. My point was that whether he is "good enough" or not, he may be the best option that we have playing with Seth at the off-guard position. I probably give TT more credit than most but I don't think PG is likely to be an area of strength for Duke if Tyler is the primary option. The offense will probably run better with Cook at lead guard but our back court will be very small and not especially quick on defense. Tyler seems significantly longer to me than Cook and much stronger defensively.
Seth Davis seems to think Alex Murphy will start at the 3 spot, says he is a "baller." Seth Davis knows all so lock it in
Just this once, I am going to agree with him. I think we will see a very different Murphy than the skinny freshman with deer in the headlight eyes in the two exhibition games last fall. I think he starts at SF from day 1 and thrives there the entire season. I think he will play some at the 4, but not sure how much. I am not as high on Murph playing the 4 as some of the others here, but he may surprise me there too. Either way I bet he has a really good year.
I'm sure you've agreed with Seth one other time, haha. I too look forward to seeing if Murphy "grows up" before next season and has a breakthrough kind of year. 2012-13 Duke won't necessarily need him to be a stud (although that is welcomed of course) but a solid player who brings some dimensions to the team at the 3 spot that were heavily missed this past season.
He may be our best option for something (like off-ball defender and defensive spark off the bench), but with his skill-set I don't see how he could possibly be our best option at PG. The things that he struggles with: pushing the ball up the floor, facilitating, entry passes, creating offense, on-ball defending, and ball-handling are pretty much all of the things that you need in a PG. I agree with CDu's assessment here:
I fully expect Tyler to play somewhat significant minutes next year simply because of his leadership abilities, intangibles, and Coach K's high praise of him, but I also fully expect Cook, Seth, and even Sheed to be our primarily ball-handlers over Tyler.
You are pointing out offensive deficiencies in TT's game. My point was that, defensively, it might not be "viable" to have Seth and QC defending together. They are both undersized for their position with only average quickness. We can live with Seth playing "team defense" if TT is playing somewhat agressive man-to-man but having two guards that the opponent can shoot over or get past is going to get our bigs in foul trouble quick. That's why I said there will be a tradeoff to consider between offense and defense. The best possible solution, imo, would be for Seth to play PG for 20 MPG if he were up to it so we could play bigger guys like Sheed and Dre at the off-guard spot. But that didn't work out last year and it doesn't appear to be on the table for next year either. I expect Seth to start and play 25+ MPG primarily at the off-guard spot so who is the best compliment at PG? IMO it may be QC on offense but it will likely be TT on defense. Given that our offense was adequate for most of last year but our defense struggled, I'm of the opinion that K won't have the luxury of playing Seth and QC together very much.
First, there is usually a fairly significant jump defensively between freshman and sophomore year that comes from experience, and I expect Quinn to make that jump. Second, I think you are misrepresenting Tyler's skills. While he is a very good off-ball defender, he is not a great on-ball defender. He is simply not quick enough to guard many opposing PGs effectively. I also don't understand your size argument. Tyler is maybe an inch taller than Quinn. If an opposing guard can shoot over Quinn, they can certainly shoot over Tyler as well.
My major point is that while Tyler may be slightly better as an overall defender, Quinn is significantly better on offense. And, without having Austin on the perimeter this year to break down defenses off the dribble, we don't have a guard currently on the team (aside from Sheed coming in) that can create off the dribble other than Quinn. The pros of Quinn at PG significantly outweigh the cons.