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  1. #241
    Would this help us with Jefferson?? or Hood?

  2. #242
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
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    Cali
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeBlue666s View Post
    Would this help us with Jefferson?? or Hood?
    Neither has committed yet. Hood has to sit out a year. Jefferson wont be a factor as a Frosh.

  3. #243
    If the rumors are accurate and Gbinije does transfer, then the picture becomes a lot more clear. One of Murphy and Dawkins would start at SF, Curry would start at SG or PG, and either Cook, Thornton, or Sulaimon would start at the other guard spot. We'd probably see only two of the three backup guards/wings playing major minutes. The front court will be Mason and Kelly with Marshall, Hairston, and perhaps Murphy filling in the remaining minutes.

  4. #244
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Chill View Post
    Neither has committed yet. Hood has to sit out a year. Jefferson wont be a factor as a Frosh.
    What is your reasoning in saying that Amile (if he came) wouldn't be a factor as a freshman?

  5. #245
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Pappa View Post
    What is your reasoning in saying that Amile (if he came) wouldn't be a factor as a freshman?
    I can't speak for the other poster, but given the history of guys who aren't top 10-15 high schoolers I'd say it is a pretty reasonable guess that Jefferson (a ~20 recruit and incredibly skinny) isn't going to make a big impact as a freshman.

  6. #246
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I can't speak for the other poster, but given the history of guys who aren't top 10-15 high schoolers I'd say it is a pretty reasonable guess that Jefferson (a ~20 recruit and incredibly skinny) isn't going to make a big impact as a freshman.
    That's fair, but IMO there is a big difference between making a "big impact" and "being a factor." Without G, I think Amile could see 10mpg behind Alex. That's certainly a factor.

  7. #247
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Pappa View Post
    That's fair, but IMO there is a big difference between making a "big impact" and "being a factor." Without G, I think Amile could see 10mpg behind Alex. That's certainly a factor.
    I'd be surprised if Jefferson plays SF, and I'd definitely be surprised if he played SF over Dawkins. His minutes would likely come at PF, and he'll be competing with Hairston and (probably) Murphy for the scraps that Ryan Kelly leaves behind. I think it's fair to say he wouldn't be a factor next year.

  8. #248
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
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    Cali
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Pappa View Post
    What is your reasoning in saying that Amile (if he came) wouldn't be a factor as a freshman?
    A bit is from what I seen out of him, but also Kelly and Hairston will get most of the minutes at the 4. Also how Kelly and Hairston rarely played as Frosh.

  9. #249

    If Michael transfers

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Chill View Post
    A bit is from what I seen out of him, but also Kelly and Hairston will get most of the minutes at the 4. Also how Kelly and Hairston rarely played as Frosh.
    If Michael transfers this team will be without a very athletic 6'7" small forward, the kind of player this team really needed last season. Assuming he will make a jump in his development, if he does move it will hurt the team. With Mason returning and Shabazz going to UCLA, things are solidifying.

    The Front line will include Mason and Ryan as starters and Mashall and Josh as backups. Alex will more likely spend most of his time at small forward, especially if Michael leaves. He will share time with Andre. Point guard seems like a competition between Quinn and Tyler. Seth is still a possibility but only if he improves his handle, court awareness and passing. The SG will then be shared with Seth and Rasheed.

    We still have a shot at recruits. Tony Parker in particular is the kind of kid who needs to improve his conditioning, but has soft hands, rebounds well and can score around the basket. In college it will be more difficult for him to score against college sized bigs, as Sullinger found despite his 278 pounds. Clearly if Michael leaves, it would be great to have another 6'6" t0 6'8" athletic small forward type.

    Just a note on watching Shabazz in the Jordan Classic. He is 6'4 1/2". He is a very determined and physical player but doesn't have the best of handles and tends to go for his shot first. He may have some trouble adapting to the college game.

  10. #250
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC

    Any real news?

    I've seen Ryan's name thrown around quite a bit on several of these threads. I've even read a couple of bold predictions, but to date what I haven't read is anything concrete on his recovery from the foot surgery.

    How's he doing and exactly where is he in his rehabilation of the foot?

    I'd really love to have some actual facts before we pencil him in as our starting 4, let alone proclaiming him ACC this or ACC that.

  11. #251
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    I've seen Ryan's name thrown around quite a bit on several of these threads. I've even read a couple of bold predictions, but to date what I haven't read is anything concrete on his recovery from the foot surgery.

    How's he doing and exactly where is he in his rehabilation of the foot?

    I'd really love to have some actual facts before we pencil him in as our starting 4, let alone proclaiming him ACC this or ACC that.
    The season is 6 months away. Most broken bones heal within 6-8 weeks. Considering that the team was pondering the possibility of his return this past season, I can't imagine that Kelly would be in any danger of losing his starting spot for next season.

  12. #252
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The season is 6 months away. Most broken bones heal within 6-8 weeks. Considering that the team was pondering the possibility of his return this past season, I can't imagine that Kelly would be in any danger of losing his starting spot for next season.
    So in other words you don't have any actual news.

  13. #253
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    So in other words you don't have any actual news.
    Did Brand miss 7+ months with his broken foot? Did Boozer miss 7+ months with his broken foot? Did Irving miss 7+ months with his injured toe? No, I don't have any actual news. But common sense and past history would suggest that there's little reason to worry that he'll not be ready for next season.

  14. #254
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    Based on last year's lineup tinkering, I think its going to be tough to predict lineups this year. In the 1-3 spots, particularly the starting 3 spot and backup 2-4 spots its going to be real tough. Kelly and MP2 are locks for starting 4 & 5. I expect (pray) Quinn to start 50%+ of the games this year at the 1, hopefully more, but Tyler will play.

    The wing is very hard to predict. From what I heard, Alex was further along last year than Mike in the preseason/early season, but that's almost meaningless for this upcoming year. My guess is Alex plays more than Mike this year, but we'll see. I won't count out Andre either as anyone can have a big offseason, but someone out of those 3 is going to going to get boxed out. On that subject...

    We dismiss this notion of going 10+ deep every year, but let's go ahead and do it again. Last year is actually a great barometer for this discussion b/c our lineups will be near identical from a mixture perspective (i.e. we don't become MORE guard heavy or MORE wing heavy MORE bigs heavy this year...really about the same). We had 12 scholarship players last year, we have 11 this year. Last year 3 guys didn't play, (alex mike mp3) and 1 got minimal time (josh) so that's 8 main guys and 1 guy to give the occasional blow/foul trouble/etc.

    I expect about the same this year given the lineup mixture is about the same:
    - 3 pure backcourt players (Quinn, Tyler, Curry--no difference)
    - 3 pure bigs (MP2, MP3, Kelly--same as last year if you sub in MP3 for MP1, who play the same role: backup center/big man)
    - 5 wings (Dre, Sheed, Alex, Mike, Josh--same if you sub in Sheed for Austin).

    In the backcourt 1 of these guys is very likely to see less than the others. Quinn was that man this year, I expect (pray) him to switch with Tyler and for Curry to play 30mpg. Same with the 3 bigs, with Marshall seeing less time than the other 2.

    The wing is the x-factor. 2 will play a good amount (at least 10-15mpg), 2 guys will hardly play and 1 will see minimal time. Last year it was Alex and Mike hardly playing and Josh seeing minimal time. What will the combo be this year? Tough to tell but my guess is its Sheed and Josh hardly playing with Mike seeing minimal time. There's only room for 2 of Dre/Alex/Mike to play a lot at the 3, Dre will get some time there b/c he's a senior and a deadly weapon (believe me I have my gripes, but the dude player 22mpg and never played less than 10 all year...he's GONNA PLAY, whether you like it or not). My guess is Alex get's a chunk of minutes there and is also big enough to take Josh's role of "4th post player," if he proves tough enough, so my guess is Alex wins this spot, reducing Mike to and Josh to minimal players. Sheed is just stuck behind 2 seniors in Dre and Curry, and while he can play some point and may benefit from K preferring 3 guard lineups, its tough for me to see him getting real minutes away from Quinn, Seth, or Tyler, and its tough to play him in a 3G lineup without Dre (otherwise you can someone way too small at the 3), so I don't think he gets much run.

    Also like last year, I expect there to be fluctuations throughout the season. We obviously started with Seth as our PG, then moved to Quinn in Dec/Jan, then settled on Tyler, with Seth/Quinn backing up. Miles moved into the starting lineup in the last 3rd of the season.

    What does that boil down to? My guess is

    1 Quinn
    2 Curry
    3 Alex
    4 Ryan
    5 Mason

    With Tyler, Dre, and Marshall seeing real minutes off the bench, and Josh, Mike and Sheed being minimized. Different from last year though, is that I don't expect Marshall to play as much as Miles, so that could mean more minutes for Alex/Josh/Mike (since they are wings/posts), but conversely I also expect to see fewer 3 guard lineups, which is why I think one of 5 guards or small wing guys gets minimalized next year (I'm guessing Sheed, but could be Dre or Tyler).
    Pretty much agree with everything Silky said with 3 caveats:

    1. Coach K sees Tyler as the most effective guy on the team, won award at banquet etc. We will have to wait and see how improved Quiinn may be now that his development is not arrested by having to rest his HS injury in pre-season and early OOC.

    2. We heard glowing reports on Alex last year but in the China/Dubai games and Blue-White he played tentatively.

    Tyler/Quinn though I may still prefer Seth as PG to leverage 4 seniors plus Alex/Mike rather than undersized Dre at SF with Tyler PG for defense and Quinn PFG for Offense

    Seth/Dre/Sheed (latter pays his freshman dues or potentialy plays more if Seth is PG)

    Alex/Mike or Dre vs. certain opponents

    Ryan/Josh (or Alex vs. certain opponents)

    MP2/MP3 or Ryan if MP3 not ready

  15. #255
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Looking at our make up it seems like coffee with an excessive amount of heavy cream. I would prefer a triple or quadruple shot of Expresso. That would give us a lot of energy or even the runs.

  16. #256
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    Pretty much agree with everything Silky said with 3 caveats:

    1. Coach K sees Tyler as the most effective guy on the team, won award at banquet etc. We will have to wait and see how improved Quiinn may be now that his development is not arrested by having to rest his HS injury in pre-season and early OOC.

    2. We heard glowing reports on Alex last year but in the China/Dubai games and Blue-White he played tentatively.

    Tyler/Quinn though I may still prefer Seth as PG to leverage 4 seniors plus Alex/Mike rather than undersized Dre at SF with Tyler PG for defense and Quinn PFG for Offense

    Seth/Dre/Sheed (latter pays his freshman dues or potentialy plays more if Seth is PG)

    Alex/Mike or Dre vs. certain opponents

    Ryan/Josh (or Alex vs. certain opponents)

    MP2/MP3 or Ryan if MP3 not ready
    My only nitpick with Silky's post is with Rasheed. The kid is going to play. The only question is with who feels the impact of the minutes Rasheed gets. As for Tyler, I would like to see him used as a wing defender coming off the bench, backing up the 2 guard, and at a lesser rate, the SF (for defense only). I don't doubt that Tyler will guard the opposing PG at times, but I am hoping Quinn and Rasheed draw that defensive assignment for the bulk of the minutes.

    In those first 7 games where Duke arguably played their best ball of the season, K used Tyler on the wing backing up Andre and Austin, and his defense was good for the most part, aside from the foul rate. Seth ran the point backed up by Quinn. I still wish we would have stuck with that model the entire year. With all the changes, they still had a lot of success, but imo they never matched the level of play from those first 7 games.

    For next year, I would hope to see Quinn be the starting PG, backed up by Rasheed and/or Seth.

    "[T]he tarnished Tar Heels that bear little resemblance to the revered program built by Dean Smith."- Ashville Times
    "UNC and the NCAA are trying to conceal that the fraud was specifically designed to pad the transcripts of varsity athletes" - Bloomberg

  17. #257
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The obvious point to make here is that Coach K didn't just pick a guy and go with him for those big minutes. Part of why those teams were Final Four teams was because the guys he had at those positions were typically really really good. It remains to be seen if we have that situation next year. I don't know that either Thornton or Cook clearly stands out like the Final Four PG of years past. And I certainly don't think Curry stands out like that, though he's admittedly closer.

    But your general point holds true. Coach K doesn't like to go deep in his rotations. We have 11 scholarship players to play 8-9 deep at most. At least 2 guys who were heavily recruited are going to sit the bench next year. It's very probable that two of those guys will be doing so for the second time in their Duke careers, considering that Dawkins, Hairston, Thornton, Cook, Gbinije, Marshall, and Murphy and Kelly (clearly he won't be benched, though) have all had small/no on-court roles in past seasons.

    It is possible that Cook and Thornton share the PG spot. It's also possible that Curry and Cook (or Thornton) share the PG spot if Sulaimon is really ready and Curry is able to play PG.

    If Curry can't play PG, he'll play SG a LOT. That is bad news for Sulaimon, who is pretty much a SG. But I suspect he'll find a way onto the floor and Curry will move over to PG some. That means bad things for one of Cook or Thornton.

    SF is going to be some combination of Murphy, Dawkins, and Gbinije. One will start, one might play decent minutes, and one is going to be out of luck.

    PF will be Kelly as much as he can handle, and Hairston backing him up with maybe some time for Murphy as well.

    C will be Mason as much as he can handle and either Marshall or Kelly backing him up.

    I don't think we have the clear personnel to go with one PG for 30+ mpg next year unless somebody really jumps up next year. As such, I think we'll see another 8-9 man rotation. But that still means 2-3 guys get squeezed.
    I agree with most of what you say, except think Dre is penciled in at SG when Seth is PG until Sheed proves he can displace Dre. Then Alex/Mike compete for WF slot.

    So if coach K elects to go with bigger SF then the two seniors Seth and Dre start, and Tylker is first off the bench with Cook and Sheed needing to displace one of them. Since K has Dre on a short leash, he has to be consistent or K has other options to go with more tradiitonal PG and have Seth at SG.

    Should make for some interesting practices and Blue-White lineups.

  18. #258
    Quote Originally Posted by Newton_14 View Post
    My only nitpick with Silky's post is with Rasheed. The kid is going to play. The only question is with who feels the impact of the minutes Rasheed gets. As for Tyler, I would like to see him used as a wing defender coming off the bench, backing up the 2 guard, and at a lesser rate, the SF (for defense only). I don't doubt that Tyler will guard the opposing PG at times, but I am hoping Quinn and Rasheed draw that defensive assignment for the bulk of the minutes.

    In those first 7 games where Duke arguably played their best ball of the season, K used Tyler on the wing backing up Andre and Austin, and his defense was good for the most part, aside from the foul rate. Seth ran the point backed up by Quinn. I still wish we would have stuck with that model the entire year. With all the changes, they still had a lot of success, but imo they never matched the level of play from those first 7 games.

    For next year, I would hope to see Quinn be the starting PG, backed up by Rasheed and/or Seth.
    Though tough to compare classes year to year, Rasheed's RSCI ranking is 17, about the same as what Nolan was (19 in 2007) and Eliott Williams (tied for 15 with Kemba Walker in 2008), I think Mason was 18 and Ryan Kelly 14 in 2010, none guys as high as single digits like Rivers, Irving and Singler.

    http://rscihoops.com/

    Nolan played 500 minutes his feshman year and Eliott played 563 but very skewed to late in the season. By contrast Tyler played 337 in his frosh year and 717 last year.

    Apparently Sheed is a tenacious defender which was not the case initially with Eliot nor most frosh. Like most frosh he probably needs to get stronger.

    So while there's no doubt Rasheed will be an outstanding player at Duke sometime in his career, it's not a given it wil be his freshman year on a team so laden with seniors.

    Hard to believe Dre will be a senior and Tyler and Josh juniors, but up to Dre to decide whether to play both ends of floor and start or continue pick his spots and have a nice view of others starting, or more importantly in end of game situations.

    Whether its Quinn and Seth at PG and SG, or Seth and Dre, a practice against Tyler and Sheed defenders will push them to be better offesnively.

    Mike and Alex go head to head and get a fresh look in practice occasionally versus Dre or Tyler as WF defender. I kind of like the idea of Tyler being a defensive specialist at any of PG, SG or WF depending on the foe.

    When it's Dre or Tyler, Alex or Mike can give Ryan/Josh a different practice partner and Ryan/Josh can do the same for MP2/MP3.

    11 is a good number to always have a full complement when one guy is nicked up a little and cannot practice.

  19. #259
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    I'll admit, I haven't had time to read this entire thread, so apologies if i repeated things people already said.

    Anyway, when I start this, I look to look at what positions people could possibly play

    Quinn: 1
    Tyler: 1
    Seth: 1 2
    Andre: 2 3
    Sheed:2 3
    Murphy: 3 4
    Hairston: 4
    Kelly: 4 5
    mp2: 4 5
    mp3: 4 5

    that's 10 guys....now we know the rotation PROBABLY won't contain more than 8 by the end of the year....so lets see where we stand

    1: quinn tyler seth
    2: seth andre sheed
    3: andre sheed murphy
    4: murphy hairston and 3 towers
    5: 3 towers

    You can ink in mp2 and rk for the majority of the minutes at the 4 and 5, so that leaves us with marshall to fill the rest of the minutes at the 5 (and kelly maybe for a couple minutes a game) 1 position down!

    so what happens with the rest of the 4 minutes? we'll leave this for a bit

    from the other end: Unless seth changes something drastically, I see 0 reason for him to play PG over quinn or tyler, and i feel quinn will be greatly improved on D...knowing that its what kept him off the floor last year. Unfortunately I think tyler will be relegated in minutes. Neither of those guys will play the two....so thats two positions settled

    so we have seth, andree, sheed, murphy, and hairston left (after slotting tyler, quinn, mp1,mp2, and rk) and we can only take 3
    we have to fill 2 3 and minutes at 4

    It comes down to what muprhy and rasheed bring to the table. If murphy is a stud, he gets most of the minutes at the 3 and mop up at the 4, and hairston gets squeezed. Dawkins mops up at 3 and takes minutes at the two, with seth. Sheed gets squeezed.

    If rasheed is a stud, he'll get minutes at the two splitting with seth, and at 3 with andre. Hairston gets most of the rest of the time at the 4, maybe some at the 3 if he can knock down the midrange jumper, and andre might get squeezed out here (along with alex)

    if they're both studs? well then i don't care who's starting since we'll have a great team

    if neither are studs, then seth andre and hairston fill out the minutes.

    What do i think? rasheed would have to be absolutely phenomenal to get into the end of the year rotation. I wouldn't count on it. at 6'9 (as the rumors go) with a year, I think murphy fills a hole and gets minutes at 3 and 4. hairston gets squeezed again bringing our rotation to

    1: tyler quinn
    2: seth andre
    3: alex andre
    4: ryan alex
    5: mason marshall ryan

    bench: rasheed, josh
    usa

  20. #260
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    Though tough to compare classes year to year, Rasheed's RSCI ranking is 17, about the same as what Nolan was (19 in 2007) and Eliott Williams (tied for 15 with Kemba Walker in 2008), I think Mason was 18 and Ryan Kelly 14 in 2010, none guys as high as single digits like Rivers, Irving and Singler.
    The current RSCI ranking is from last summer. It will be interesting to see how far Rasheed rises in the final RSCI rankings. My guess is it will be around 10, much better than Nolan but much worse than Austin/Kyle/Kyrie.

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