Yeah, I think it's ridiculous to say that State (without Leslie and Painter) will be a top-10 team. Their season rests heavily on Leslie's decision. I think it is a fair ranking with Leslie, but not without him. Without him, that's a very good backcourt but very questionable frontcourt.
I think Katz is ranking us too low, Kansas and Syracuse too high, and UNC about right (we should be ahead of them, but they should be about where they are). He's giving lots of cred to Self and not enough to Coach K, and he's giving too much cred to the returning UNC players and not enough to the returning Duke players. It's not a well thought out article.
The obvious point to make here is that Coach K didn't just pick a guy and go with him for those big minutes. Part of why those teams were Final Four teams was because the guys he had at those positions were typically really really good. It remains to be seen if we have that situation next year. I don't know that either Thornton or Cook clearly stands out like the Final Four PG of years past. And I certainly don't think Curry stands out like that, though he's admittedly closer.
But your general point holds true. Coach K doesn't like to go deep in his rotations. We have 11 scholarship players to play 8-9 deep at most. At least 2 guys who were heavily recruited are going to sit the bench next year. It's very probable that two of those guys will be doing so for the second time in their Duke careers, considering that Dawkins, Hairston, Thornton, Cook, Gbinije, Marshall, and Murphy and Kelly (clearly he won't be benched, though) have all had small/no on-court roles in past seasons.
It is possible that Cook and Thornton share the PG spot. It's also possible that Curry and Cook (or Thornton) share the PG spot if Sulaimon is really ready and Curry is able to play PG.
If Curry can't play PG, he'll play SG a LOT. That is bad news for Sulaimon, who is pretty much a SG. But I suspect he'll find a way onto the floor and Curry will move over to PG some. That means bad things for one of Cook or Thornton.
SF is going to be some combination of Murphy, Dawkins, and Gbinije. One will start, one might play decent minutes, and one is going to be out of luck.
PF will be Kelly as much as he can handle, and Hairston backing him up with maybe some time for Murphy as well.
C will be Mason as much as he can handle and either Marshall or Kelly backing him up.
I don't think we have the clear personnel to go with one PG for 30+ mpg next year unless somebody really jumps up next year. As such, I think we'll see another 8-9 man rotation. But that still means 2-3 guys get squeezed.
You may be right. But I'd note that five of the 11 years had Quin Snyder ('88, '89); Jeff Capel ('94; really a combo guard who had 3.2 apg but still played 26.4 mpg at PG); Jon Scheyer (great player but not really known as a PG prior to his senior season); and freshman Bobby Hurley (not to be confused with sophomore, junior, or senior Bobby Hurley). And yet they all played big minutes at PG, despite their apparent flaws.
My solution to all this - have a B squad that comes in for short stretches 2-3 times in the first half and 1-2 times in the second half to run, trap and press.
Coach K could have a regular rotation with Quinn, Seth, Rasheed, Andre, Alex, Ryan and Mason that plays similar to how we did last year. That's a 7-man rotation plus Marshall/Josh getting some minutes in relief of Mason and Ryan. Then he could have a 2nd group consisting of Tyler, MG and Josh, with the addition of a couple of the guys from the regular rotation. This group would put all kids of pressure on our opponent defensively for short bursts. They could be used to stop the other team's run, to speed up the pace and to get quick and easy transition buckets. It would be 40 minutes of hell for 5-10 minutes a game.
This Duke team is deep and does not have a clear identity. We flirted with this idea some last year when Coach K platooned Tyler and Quinn in mid-January, but got away from it once Quinn tweaked his knee and was sick. This has two advantages - you get some consistent minutes for guys who would otherwise get squeezed out of the rotation, and you develop an identity as a fast-paced team that brings talent at you in waves. You also are not sending in guys like Josh and Michael to stand around and be deferential to the starters, but you send them in with a more clear purpose.
There's a few issues you'd have to manage. What kind of game will you get from Andre; figure it out early on and adjust his minutes accordingly. What matchup advantages will you have with our frontcourt; either go big or small depending on those advantages. Who has improved dramatically over this past season; figure out how best to maximize their minutes.
Thoughts?
The other part I wonder about is whether K has had as good back-up options at the guard spots as he will this year. I know I always think highly of the last players on Duke's bench, but I know that there were not a lot of options when Scheyer played point and suspect that there often weren't a whole lot of great options off the bench.
“Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”
Well that was true in 2010, but not as much in other seasons. In 1988, for example, we had Kevin Strickland who was a decent ballhandler at SG, plus Phil Henderson (ditto) playing 16.5 minutes off the bench, plus recruited freshman PG Joe Cook who hardly played. But K handed the reins to two-year backup Quin Snyder for 30.4 mpg. In 1990 we had decent ballhandler Phil Henderson at SG and we had freshmen Billy McCaffrey (who thought of himself as a PG) and Thomas Hill playing under 15 mpg off the bench. Some combination of Henderson and McCaffrey (either together or with T Hill at SG) could have manned the point while but Hurley sat, but Bobby played 33.4 mpg while accruing a mediocre 1.7 assist to turnover ratio. In 1994, Grant Hill was playing point-forward; we could have played anybody who could defend the PG position.
So I don't think Coach K necessarily plays his primary PG that many minutes because of a lack of options so much as he thinks the team performs better when we have consistency from the guard slots (especially PG). Even in 2011-12, we only had a timeshare for a few games.
The short answer is that there was clear separation between each of those guys and the alternatives. I'll discuss each of your examples:
'88: The backcourt was Kevin Strickland, Quin Snyder, and Phil Henderson (more shooting guard than PG) backing them up in '88.
'89: Henderson and Snyder shared the backcourt in '89, with a freshman Brien Davis (certainly no PG) as the closest thing to a backup for them.
'90: The backcourt in 1990 was a senior Henderson, a freshman Hurley, a freshman McCaffrey, and a freshman Thomas Hill. Hurley was nowhere near the player as a freshman that he became as a sophomore and then upperclassman. But he was still signicantly better than McCaffrey (who was more SG than PG at that point anyway) and Hill (who was not a PG at all).
'94: The only alternative to Capel was Kenny Blakeney. And note that he only played 26.4 mpg. That's not exactly a ton of minutes for a starter.
'10: Again, the alternatives were basically nonexistent. We had a freshman Dawkins (who enrolled very late and thus missed all of the summer informal practices). He was no threat to the All-American Scheyer and All-ACC caliber Smith.
If we have some players that clearly distinguish themselves, we'll likely see Coach K rely heavily on them. But that didn't happen last year, and I'm not convinced yet that it will happen next year. It's certainly possible, but I'd be more inclined to expect decent improvements from everyone without too many players clearly distinguishing themselves.
One possible scenario:
Mason, Ryan and Alex form the primary post rotation; Marshall and Josh play most games but average 5mpg or less
Quinn, Seth and Rasheed form the primary PG/SG rotation; Tyler sees time every game but minutes vary from 1 to 15 based on the situation
WF is shared among Andre, Mike and Alex, with one being a de factor starter but game to game PT dependent on matchups and hot (or cold) hands
8-man primary rotation (10+ mpg) is Mason, Ryan, Alex, Mike, Andre, Rasheed, Seth and Quinn
Assumes (a lot):
-Quinn makes a big jump and clearly establishes himself as the PG starter
-Seth grows more comfortable at the point
-Rasheed is ready to contribute right away
-Alex projects as more of a stretch 4 (or combo forward) than a 3, and clearly moves ahead of Josh in the pre-season
-Ryan can play some 5 given the right matchups
I agree it's a possible scenario. However, the biggest assumption that you didn't point out is that a guy who started 19 games last season and played 21+ mpg will drop out of the rotation entirely.
Assuming we have an 8-man rotation, someone worthy is going to sit, but based on his leadership and defensive skills, I think it's a long shot that it's Tyler (although I could see him possibly as the 7th or 8th guy playing 10 to 15 mpg; but only if Rasheed proves worthy of big minutes).
Well thats what fans do, we contradict whats going on with our team, especially when the team loses in the 1st round to a 15 seed. Also during the season everyone was saying this team was missing a SF from the lineup, when that SF was Gbinije. It doesnt matter if he makes mistakes, he still needs time on the court. Thats how he will get better. I'm not saying Gbinije would of been the difference maker, there were major personnel problems all over the court. But if you think playing time doesnt make a difference to a players development, your flat out wrong.
Also, just because Coach K is the GOAT, doesnt mean we fans cant call him out on his recruiting, player development, in game decision making, assistant coaches, play calling or lack of play calling. Because I know I will.
Do you think its ok to win 27 games, then lose in the first round?
This is Duke, the standards are higher, the expectations are higher.
I am arguing none of this. I am arguing that in the minutes we saw Gbinije play, he did not clearly demonstrate that he should be getting more minutes. If you saw something different, I'd like to hear it. But all season long, people pined for more of MG (myself included) but that was solely based on eyeballing him on tv which is not a really good reason. If he was ready and killing it in practice he would have gotten PT. But he did not get PT so the only reasonable conclusion is that he was not ready and was not killing it in practice.
I really like the idea of using Gbinije and Thornton in short spurts to press and trap and speed up other teams. But I'm not as enamored with either of them getting big minutes in our normal sets, unless both demonstrate they can be better than they were last season. Short of a great leap in their productivity and effectiveness, I'd like to see them come in as a defensive duo and speed the game up and get us some transition buckets. But likely in short spurts.
Thats not true. I dont remember the team, but late in the season when Hairston was hurt. Gbinije got in the game made a cut to the basket, got a nice pass from the walk on, and exploded to the hoop for a dunk.
My point is, he needs more consistent minutes, regardless if Duke is up by 20 or down by 10, especially early in the year against non-conference opponents. Thats how players get better, thats how teams develop depth. And its not just Gbinije either, Hairston needs more consistent minutes. When Kelly went out, Hairston also showed flashes that he should of been getting more minutes.
Early in the season, let them make mistakes. I dont like when Duke loses a game, but I rather lose a game early in the season, than a game during ACCT or NCAAT time.
Every time Cook made 1 mistake, he got hooked so fast. Why not let him play through those early mistakes, then let him know about them during the TV timeout?
The thing is I followed Duke long enough, to know that a player has to perform in practice to get minutes, and I know how hard headed Coach K is about that. But that is also the thing that pisses me off about him the most, is that he mainly plays 8 guys, even early in the season.
As I mentioned in my earlier post, Ricky Price was suspended from school for the first month and a half and never caught up. I don't think he's a great analog for Tyler Thornton.
Greg Paulus played heavy minutes into mid-February and averaged 16+ mpg for the season. He did drop out of the rotation in mid-February, replaced by someone who had not previously been in the rotation, essentially for defensive purposes. Again, not particularly analogous to Tyler. I suppose Tyler could play rotation minutes until February and then drop out in favor of the 9th man (whoever that is: Michael? Andre?), but since Tyler's already a pretty good defensive player, it's hard to imagine him earning big early season minutes and then dropping from the rotation entirely, absent an injury or getting kicked off the team (which I'd view as highly unlikely). But I suppose there's a remote possibility it could happen if our offense was really sputtering and Andre was sitting there at the end of the bench.
Second guessing Coach K is not going to win you many friends here on this board. Go ask the non-stop Quinn Cook advocates from last season how that works out for you.
If you are going to make statements and critiques regarding how players are used by the coaching staff, I would suggest having something more to point to than one athletic series from late in the season.
Wise consensus here would suggest that the winningest coach in NCAA history and 4 time national champion who sees every player go all out (or not) in practice for 20 hours a week has a much better basis for decisions than we, the over-exuberant fan base.
I'm very optimistic about next year's team. We have an amazingly experienced group with some very hungry young kids with at least a year in the system who will be eager to prove themselves (Murphy, MP3, Cook, Hairston, Silent G). This points to very competitive practices and good-natured competition for playing time. Coach K is more than qualified to focus this energy and grit to see if he can develop a diamond.
Go Duke
A lot of guys can dunk. That's hardly evidence that they deserve to play major minutes on a top 5 or top 10 Division I team.
You seem very positive on this point, like there's only one answer, but many people believe young players get better in practice, rather than games. Coach K happens to be one of those people. Just because you disagree with him doesn't mean he's wrong.
If you play Michael and Josh, that means you're sitting someone else who deserves minutes. Why are the less-ready players more deserving of playing time than the more-ready players?
People say this a lot, but (a) I don't believe that they'd be OK losing early season games; (b) it doesn't logically follow that playing your 9th and 10th man early in the year will help you win games later in the year, especially if you play a 7-man rotation in the tournament and so the 9th and 10th man won't actually be playing then anyway; and (c) losing early season games could lead to getting a worse seed in the NCAAT, which means you'd be playing better teams in the tournament and thus have a lower probability of beating them, which means that doing what you suggest might actually make it more likely that we'll lose in the post-season.
It might tick you off, but if you want to root for Duke you just have to grit your teeth and get used to it, because Coach K has done pretty well using this philosophy, and he isn't going to change it any time soon.
Wasn't the class of 2011 considered to be much deeper and stronger overall than the class of 2012, so comparing the relative rankings of individual players across classes is somewhat apples and oranges? Granted ESPN's rankings aren't the most reputable, but since they also give grades to players, they're rankings are the easiest to compare across classes. This year, there are only two 98s, but last year, they gave their 8th ranked player, Marquis Teague a 98. Marshall and Alex were both 96s in ESPN's final 2011 rankings (35 and 41 overall respectively). I don't think it's unreasonable to think they've each added a point to their games since last year, which would make them 97s entering their first year of eligibility and put them at worst 20 and 21 in ESPN's rankings (recruits 3-19 have 97 grades). We haven't seen them play, so it requires some conjecture, but a year of practice against D1 players and the added physical maturity should justify an expectation of improvement instead of stagnation or regression.
If Marshall and Murphy didn't have the redshirt stigma and were graded under the same rubric as the rest of 2012's first year players, I don't see how we're not ranked in the top ten to start the season. It's unfortunate that we're going to lose our consecutive weeks in the top ten streak based on a perception, which I believe doesn't comport with reality. Do people really think Andy Katz would have us ranked 15 in his early preseason rankings if we were bringing in his company's 12th, 20th, and 21st ranked recruits to replace Austin Rivers and Miles Plumlee?