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  1. #181
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Columbus OH 614
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I am simply using the #15 ranking because that is the data point I have for him with respect to incoming freshmen. If he would have stayed and fallen then so be it. He fell when he reclassified because of his slight frame (he needed the year of physical development as he was really skinny). And as such, he chose to redshirt. Thus, I never considered the 2012 ranking relevant because he didn't play this year. He wasn't physically ready, and as such it made sense for him to be rated lowerin last year's class.
    What caused him the be ranked where he was makes no difference to me...I guess we just disagree on considering him an incoming freshmen, I think the fact that he's been in college a year already says he's not...sounds like you think the fact that he didn't play in games means he is

  2. #182
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Albemarle, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    What caused him the be ranked where he was makes no difference to me...I guess we just disagree on considering him an incoming freshmen, I think the fact that he's been in college a year already says he's not...sounds like you think the fact that he didn't play in games means he is
    And that fact that the NCAA and Duke will also call him a freshmen...

  3. #183
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Cali
    High school rankings don't mean squat once the season starts.

  4. #184
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Columbus OH 614
    Quote Originally Posted by JNort View Post
    And that fact that the NCAA and Duke will also call him a freshmen...
    Yea sorry a redshirt freshmen and a freshmen are not the same...If you don't think that year of weight training, conditioning and practice matter then Alex should've just played a 5th year in HS

  5. #185
    There's obviously a logjam at either the 2, the 3, or the 4 position next year because K never goes more than 8-9 deep in the season. I have a feeling that two out of Hairston, Murphy, Gbinije, or Dawkins will sit out most of the season.

    I hope it doesn't happen, but unless Sulaimon doesn't pan out or Dawkins doesn't improve the logical guess is that Hairston and Gbinije are odd men out and Murphy will play some power forward.

    I really thought last year that a better prepared Gbinije could've helped in Duke losses.

  6. #186
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Silicon Valley
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    Yea sorry a redshirt freshmen and a freshmen are not the same...If you don't think that year of weight training, conditioning and practice matter then Alex should've just played a 5th year in HS
    Correction: fourth.

    He's going to be a (redshirt) freshman and the age of a freshman.

  7. #187
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Columbus OH 614
    Quote Originally Posted by anon View Post
    Correction: fourth.

    He's going to be a (redshirt) freshman and the age of a freshman.
    Nope fifth...

  8. #188
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by anon View Post
    Correction: fourth.

    He's going to be a (redshirt) freshman and the age of a freshman.
    He turns 19 in June, so he'll be older than most freshmen. 9 months older than Sheed, for example.

  9. #189
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CALVET View Post
    There's obviously a logjam at either the 2, the 3, or the 4 position next year because K never goes more than 8-9 deep in the season. I have a feeling that two out of Hairston, Murphy, Gbinije, or Dawkins will sit out most of the season.

    I hope it doesn't happen, but unless Sulaimon doesn't pan out or Dawkins doesn't improve the logical guess is that Hairston and Gbinije are odd men out and Murphy will play some power forward.

    I really thought last year that a better prepared Gbinije could've helped in Duke losses.
    If Gbinije is on the bench another year, there will be a lot of frustrated message board posters.

  10. #190
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    What caused him the be ranked where he was makes no difference to me...I guess we just disagree on considering him an incoming freshmen, I think the fact that he's been in college a year already says he's not...sounds like you think the fact that he didn't play in games means he is
    I'm only interested in the rankings as a means of guesstimating his potential impact next year. I'm not trying to rank him as a prospect - I'm simply interested in how he'll do next year. So I'm using whatever data I have to try to figure that out. As such, I think the junior year ranking before he reclassified (even though it isn't perfect) is the most useful piece of comparative data I have in gauging how he'll produce next year compared with other freshmen.

    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    Yea sorry a redshirt freshmen and a freshmen are not the same...If you don't think that year of weight training, conditioning and practice matter then Alex should've just played a 5th year in HS
    The NCAA views them as the same (in terms of years of eligibility), and that's all that matters. He'll have four years of eligibility, as will they. It's silly to compare him to sophomores, because they have only 3 years of eligibility.

    You are correct that he has an advantage over true freshmen in that he's got a year of college experience (with the weight training, conditioning, and practice) already. That's my point: he's probably going to be better than most freshmen by virtue of having that year of experience. That's a good thing, yet you seem to be suggesting it is a bad thing.

    You are sort of arguing against yourself. You ask why we should be excited about him next year. Then you provide the answer: he's a redshirt freshman who was ranked in the top 20 a year ago and has spent the past year gaining a HUGE advantage over other those (now) incoming freshmen.

  11. #191
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Columbus OH 614
    Only thing I'm arguing is that saying he is a top 15 player is not accurate b/c that wasnt his final ranking nor did he come in with that class and that he can't be ranked among the incoming freshmen b/c he's not an incoming freshmen...if you don't agree that's cool, it's not like I said I thought he was a bum or something

  12. #192
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    Only thing I'm arguing is that saying he was a top 15 player is not accurate and that he can't be ranked among the incoming freshmen b/c he's not an incoming freshmen...if you don't agree that's cool, it's not like I said I thought he was a bum or something
    And I'm not trying to rank him. I don't care about the rankings other than as a gauge of what the players will actually do.

  13. #193
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Haha. Wow. Astonishing that this^ is still going strong...

  14. #194
    Quote Originally Posted by loldevilz View Post
    If Gbinije is on the bench another year, there will be a lot of frustrated message board posters.
    Not if we win. Winning cures everything.

  15. #195
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Cali
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Pappa View Post
    Not if we win. Winning cures everything.
    Duke won 27 games last season. Gbinije should of been getting minutes during all of those games that he was available.
    He should have been getting minutes in the all of the games.

  16. #196
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Andrew Katz pegs Duke at #15 for next year, in spite of being top 10 all this year and returning everyone but Rivers and adding Sulaimon, Murphy, Marshall.

    Unc is ranked higher even though they will have nothing but role players on the roster (similar to Duke last year, sort of).

    State is ranked higher even though Calvin Leslie's status is way up n the air, and that affects Amile Jefferson's decision directly.

    Methinks Katz doesnt know too much.

  17. #197
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Chill View Post
    Duke won 27 games last season. Gbinije should of been getting minutes during all of those games that he was available.
    He should have been getting minutes in the all of the games.
    Do you have specific reasons for this claim? What is your line of reasoning here? Do you know more about Gbinije's talents and efforts in practice than Coach K? Because Coach K's limited minutes for Gbinije this past season directly contradict your post. Sure, I'd like to have see Gbinije get more minutes too, but I know very little myself.

  18. #198
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Big Pappa View Post
    Not if we win. Winning cures everything.
    Winning cures most things, but message board griping can survive almost anything.

  19. #199
    With Mason returning, we're getting a lot closer to when it makes sense to speculate about lineups. So, here's something to think about when divvying up minutes and thinking about the rotation. The following table shows the minutes played by our PG and SG in our Final Four years:

    Code:
    Year     PG     SG
    ----    ----   ----
     86     30.2   33.1
     88     28.7   29.6
     89     30.4   29.6 
     90     33.4   31.5
     91     34.7   24.8
     92     33.6   30.6
     94     26.4   31.0
     99     31.0   31.0
     01     31.8   27.8*
     04     35.4   31.1
     10     36.8   35.5
    * - in 2001, I put Jason Williams at PG and Chris Duhon at SG. Switch them if you like.


    The point of this table is Coach K tends to want to play his backcourt for a lot of minutes, at least he did on his Final Four teams. Only twice in those 11 years have our starting PGs played less than 30 mpg, and the lowest minute total for PGs is 26.4. Only twice have our starting SG played less than 29.5 mpg, and the lowest total is 24.8.

    What that says to me is we are likely to see one PG and one SG emerge and play at least 25 or more minutes a game, and if history is a reliable guide then they'll probably play 30+ mpg. Looking at it that way, it seems a lot less likely we'll see an equal timeshare between Quinn and Tyler. Assuming either of them is capable, seems like one of them would take the job and run with it and the other would play 10 to 15 backup minutes. And Seth will probably play 30+ minutes at SG.

    But if Tyler and Quinn split all 40 PG minutes and Seth plays 30+ SG minutes, then what happens to Rasheed and Andre, each of whom I would have penciled in for 18 to 20+ minutes. Based on Coach K's comments that Alex could be a four year starter, I'd also probably pencil him in for at least 20 minutes, mostly at SF. And of course a lot of people expect Michael to pick up 15 or 20 minutes at SF.

    Part of the logjam could be alleviated by playing Alex some at PF. If Ryan and Mason each play 30 mpg, and we relegate Josh and Marshall to 5 mpg each (which would be a shame, but someone has to sit), that leaves 10 minutes for Alex at PF. But the minute hopes stated in the paragraph above still give us 130 to 140 minutes allocated out of a possible 120. Meaning someone (other than Josh and Marshall) isn't going to play very much at all.

    Who will it be?

    (a) Rasheed? If his defensive reputation is even half-deserved it seems unlikely he'll be left out of the rotation. He could get the 10 mpg when Seth doesn't play and could give us 10 mpg at SF, although that would give us an even smaller defensive perimeter than last year, which would be alarming. Another possibility is that Rasheed could become one of the main two guards, either by playing PG or by Seth scooting over to PG again. It's hard to expect this from a borderline top-10 freshman (currently rated 17 but very likely to move up in the final RSCI). But personally I'm guessing this may end up making the most sense. However, we won't have any idea if it's even possible until November.

    (b) Tyler? Quinn? If Rasheed becomes a big-minute guard, then either Tyler or Quinn (or both) could move to 8th/9th man in the rotation. If Tyler doesn't improve his offense or if Quinn doesn't improve his defense, this might be an easier call. Assuming both of them do improve (which I expect), it's difficult to suggest cutting their minutes, but I think it's a real possibility anyway.

    (c) Andre? He has certainly been an enigma but he'll be a senior. It's hard to imagine him as the 9th guy in the rotation. Even Greg Paulus played very healthy minutes until mid-February, and ended up averaging 16.1 mpg for the season. Ricky Price was suspended for the first month and a half of the season and then never really got on track. And other than Ricky, I think you have to go all the way back to Mike Tissaw (who Coach K did not recruit) to find a senior who played 20+ mpg earlier in his career and under 15 his senior year. Still, it could happen if Andre doesn't improve his ability to defend and focus every time he's on the court. He's probably my favorite player on the team, so I hope not.

    (d) Michael? He has such great physical tools, but there simply may not be enough minutes to go around. I'm rooting for him, if for no other reason than I'd hate to spend the entire 2012-13 season reading "why isn't {g} starting" threads. Having said that, I think he has to beat out either Andre or Alex for the rotation spot.

    (e) Alex? If Michael proves to be the better SF, perhaps Alex slides over as the third big and cuts out Marshall's and Josh's minutes entirely. Although if Josh and/or Marshall prove worthy of 10 to 15 big man minutes, the whole thing becomes even murkier.

    Anyway, it's quite a dilemma, but it seems to me that one of the above unfortunate scenarios has to occur. The minutes don't shake out any other way.

  20. #200

    Don' forget Miles

    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Andrew Katz pegs Duke at #15 for next year, in spite of being top 10 all this year and returning everyone but Rivers and adding Sulaimon, Murphy, Marshall.

    Unc is ranked higher even though they will have nothing but role players on the roster (similar to Duke last year, sort of).

    State is ranked higher even though Calvin Leslie's status is way up n the air, and that affects Amile Jefferson's decision directly.

    Methinks Katz doesnt know too much.
    We lose both Austin and Miles and we add Marshall as probably a little lower performer than Miles was this past season and Rasheed a little lower performer than Austin was past season. I would expect Mason, Ryan and Josh to show some improvement on the front line, while Michael and Alex are somewhat unknowns. Our biggest hope for improvement lies with Alex and Michael. At guard I would expect improvement from Quinn and Tyler with Seth holding his level of play and Andre kind of an wildcard vaariable. Actually, I don't think a rating of 15 is that far off for this team after the weak performance to finish off the season.

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