With Mason returning, we're getting a lot closer to when it makes sense to speculate about lineups. So, here's something to think about when divvying up minutes and thinking about the rotation. The following table shows the minutes played by our PG and SG in our Final Four years:
Code:
Year PG SG
---- ---- ----
86 30.2 33.1
88 28.7 29.6
89 30.4 29.6
90 33.4 31.5
91 34.7 24.8
92 33.6 30.6
94 26.4 31.0
99 31.0 31.0
01 31.8 27.8*
04 35.4 31.1
10 36.8 35.5
* - in 2001, I put Jason Williams at PG and Chris Duhon at SG. Switch them if you like.
The point of this table is Coach K tends to want to play his backcourt for a lot of minutes, at least he did on his Final Four teams. Only twice in those 11 years have our starting PGs played less than 30 mpg, and the lowest minute total for PGs is 26.4. Only twice have our starting SG played less than 29.5 mpg, and the lowest total is 24.8.
What that says to me is we are likely to see one PG and one SG emerge and play at least 25 or more minutes a game, and if history is a reliable guide then they'll probably play 30+ mpg. Looking at it that way, it seems a lot less likely we'll see an equal timeshare between Quinn and Tyler. Assuming either of them is capable, seems like one of them would take the job and run with it and the other would play 10 to 15 backup minutes. And Seth will probably play 30+ minutes at SG.
But if Tyler and Quinn split all 40 PG minutes and Seth plays 30+ SG minutes, then what happens to Rasheed and Andre, each of whom I would have penciled in for 18 to 20+ minutes. Based on Coach K's comments that Alex could be a four year starter, I'd also probably pencil him in for at least 20 minutes, mostly at SF. And of course a lot of people expect Michael to pick up 15 or 20 minutes at SF.
Part of the logjam could be alleviated by playing Alex some at PF. If Ryan and Mason each play 30 mpg, and we relegate Josh and Marshall to 5 mpg each (which would be a shame, but someone has to sit), that leaves 10 minutes for Alex at PF. But the minute hopes stated in the paragraph above still give us 130 to 140 minutes allocated out of a possible 120. Meaning someone (other than Josh and Marshall) isn't going to play very much at all.
Who will it be?
(a) Rasheed? If his defensive reputation is even half-deserved it seems unlikely he'll be left out of the rotation. He could get the 10 mpg when Seth doesn't play and could give us 10 mpg at SF, although that would give us an even smaller defensive perimeter than last year, which would be alarming. Another possibility is that Rasheed could become one of the main two guards, either by playing PG or by Seth scooting over to PG again. It's hard to expect this from a borderline top-10 freshman (currently rated 17 but very likely to move up in the final RSCI). But personally I'm guessing this may end up making the most sense. However, we won't have any idea if it's even possible until November.
(b) Tyler? Quinn? If Rasheed becomes a big-minute guard, then either Tyler or Quinn (or both) could move to 8th/9th man in the rotation. If Tyler doesn't improve his offense or if Quinn doesn't improve his defense, this might be an easier call. Assuming both of them do improve (which I expect), it's difficult to suggest cutting their minutes, but I think it's a real possibility anyway.
(c) Andre? He has certainly been an enigma but he'll be a senior. It's hard to imagine him as the 9th guy in the rotation. Even Greg Paulus played very healthy minutes until mid-February, and ended up averaging 16.1 mpg for the season. Ricky Price was suspended for the first month and a half of the season and then never really got on track. And other than Ricky, I think you have to go all the way back to Mike Tissaw (who Coach K did not recruit) to find a senior who played 20+ mpg earlier in his career and under 15 his senior year. Still, it could happen if Andre doesn't improve his ability to defend and focus every time he's on the court. He's probably my favorite player on the team, so I hope not.
(d) Michael? He has such great physical tools, but there simply may not be enough minutes to go around. I'm rooting for him, if for no other reason than I'd hate to spend the entire 2012-13 season reading "why isn't {g} starting" threads. Having said that, I think he has to beat out either Andre or Alex for the rotation spot.
(e) Alex? If Michael proves to be the better SF, perhaps Alex slides over as the third big and cuts out Marshall's and Josh's minutes entirely. Although if Josh and/or Marshall prove worthy of 10 to 15 big man minutes, the whole thing becomes even murkier.
Anyway, it's quite a dilemma, but it seems to me that one of the above unfortunate scenarios has to occur. The minutes don't shake out any other way.