Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
OK, I went back 15 years, looking at every rotation player (or starter) at Duke who had a senior year and compared their senior season to their junior season, to see if seniors generally improve or stay more or less the same. I compared per game statistics and then made a qualitative analysis. So if a senior played a lot more minutes then he will look good in this chart, but that's sort of what we're talking about here so it made sense to me.

I may have missed somebody, but I counted 26 Duke seniors from 1998 to 2012:

Senior year a lot worse than junior year: 4 (Greg Paulus, Nick Horvath, Lee Melchionni, Ricky Price)

Senior year a little worse than junior year, but still in the same ballpark: 2 (Kyle Singler, Steve Wojciechowski)

Senior year a little better than junior year, but still in the same ballpark: 5 (DeMarcus Nelson, Chris Duhon, Sean Dockery, Taymon Domzalski, Nate James)

Senior year a LOT better than junior year: 15 (Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek, Dave McLure, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams, Casey Sanders, Dahntay Jones, Daniel Ewing, Shane Battier, Chris Carrawell, Trajan Langdon, Roshown McLeod)


Obviously some of this is subjective, but I conclude that there's a pretty good chance that our seniors next season make a "jump" and will put up significantly better numbers than they did this season.
Thanks for doing the research. Kedsy. Marty may qyualify but may have been hurt the prior year.

Though hard to show quantitatively, the other thing that happens with each year in the Duke system is their defense and their consitency improves. Seniors know best when to rotate and they have been in every ACC opponent's gym at least once and usually about 3 or more times.

Depending on what happens with Mason, Duke could be in the position only mid-majors are in having potentially 4 senior starters, with Seth actually in his fifth year.

So unless a Shabazz comes on board in limelight like a Kyrie or Austin, the nucleus would be the seniors:

Mason at center if he returns, or the senior Oriakhi? possibly if Mason goes and Tony Parker does not join first. Seemsl ike Tony will decide before Alex. Not sure which of the two Duke would prefer but go with the sure thing.

Ryan at PF unless he has to play center if Mason goes and no Parker nor Oriakhi.

Dre at a guard spot, possibly a 3 guard lineup. He's just too much of a weapon when he's on, not to leverage him his final year, and hope his senior maturity leads to consistently good rather than consistently inconsistent. Coach K has plenty of weapons if Dre does nto do his part Alex/Mike/Sheed plus possibly Amile?/Trey?.

Seth at a guard spot, either SG or PG depending on who the fifth starter is.

If Ryan has to defend at center and spread the floor on Offense, then I would think Duke would need the height and have Alex and Mike (or Amile) at the two forward spots with Josh in reserve capacity as more traditional PF as MP3 is at center, relegating Seth to PG.

The defense has to start with the bigs and work its way down but still play the best 5 which would exclude MP3 and Josh most likely.

If Mason is at center (or Oriakhi or Parker) the Ryan is the spread the floor PF he has been.

Dre and Seth are two of the guards and then a decision whehter to go with a traditional PG Quinn or Tyler or to go with a traditional SF Alex or Mike (or Amile or Trey if eleigible a no decision if it's Shabazz).

This could aslo vary by opponent sometimes being Mason-Ryan-Dre-Seth and Quinn/Tyler.
At other times Mason - Ryan - Alex/Mike (or Amile?/Trey?) - Dre - Seth

Having seniors is a big advantage as evidenced by FSU winning 4 out of 5 versus Duke (2-1) and UNC (2-0). With the presure to go pro early typically these seniors are not lottery pick type of guys but still very experieinced relative to hot shots who were in HS the prior year, and quite often first or second round NBA draftee candidates.