I haven't seen Rasheed play much, so I'm uniquely qualified to prematurely speculate on his playing time. Most have predicted that he'll play somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-20 minutes per game, a solid and unspectacular contribution (though I suspect that this guess might be affected by the desire by some not to unfairly overhype first-year players.)
But I'd like to point out that Olympic Fan, holder of many pitchforks, has said in another thread that RS will "come close to" replacing the overall impact of Rivers. Presuming OF to be "close to" correct, if you take into account that Rivers played over 33 mpg last season (most on the team), and that K shows no hesitancy to play freshmen a lot of minutes if they're ready, aren't we underguessing Rasheed's minutes? I prematurely speculate 25-30 minutes for RS
“Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”
I don't think the same situation applies next yaer. Next year, I think Thornton is competing with Cook (healthier and now with a year's worth of experience) and Sulaimon (far more talented, probably better on-ball defense), while Dawkins is competing with Murphy and Sulaimon. So if Dawkins goes into a tailspin again, I suspect his minutes will go to Murphy or Sulaimon unless both guys aren't ready. Only then would I expect Thornton to take minutes from Dawkins.
Basically, if Cook, Sulaimon, and Murphy are ready to contribute 18+ mpg next year, I think it's Thornton that will lose his minutes.
Miles 0 (20.5)
Gbinije 0 (6)
So in place of the 60 minutes Rivers, Miles and Gbinije played, Duke has Sheed, Murphy, MP3 and any additional minutes for returning players.
You basically switched Tyler's and Quinn's minutes the latter from 12 to 24 and the former from 21 to 10 and that remains to be seen.
You allocated Miles 20.5 minutes 8 to MP3, 2 to Kelly and 10 to Alex.
You allocated Rivers 33 minutes 20 to Sheed and 10 to Alex and spread the other 3.
I think your approach of keeping Dre at 22 is better than the one you were respoinding to that had him at 10.
Other than probably overadjusting for Quinn from Tyler, I agree there will be some if Sheed can absorb some of that defensive intensity, seems pretty reasonable.
With Mason, Ryan and Seth sure starters, coach K has to decide whether to optimize the PG slot with Quinn and Tyler as you suggest or whether to leverage the senior experience
One alternate would be the lineup you proposed except to have Dre be the undersized WF starter and have Alex back up Dre and Ryan.
A second alternative would depoend on in addition to Dre whether Alex is more ready to star than Quinn or Tyler:
PG - Seth (Sr.) backed up by Quinn (Soph) and Tyler (Jr.)
SG - Dre (Sr.) backed up by Seth (Sr.) and Sheed (Fr.)
WF - Alex (Soph - redshirt) backed up by Dre (sr.) and Sheed (Fr.)
PF - Ryan (Sr.) backed up by Alex (Soph) and Josh (Jr.)
C - MP2 (Sr.) backed up by Ryan (sr.) and MP3 (Soph - redshirt)
Whether Dre comes to play every day will drive that decision.
Last edited by ACCBBallFan; 04-16-2012 at 06:02 PM.
Just to point out that mpg only takes into account the games a player actually participates in so Mike's six mpg is a bit misleading since he had 15 DNPs. If you count those as zero, the average obviously goes down considerably. Mike leaving doesn't open up 6 more mpg for somebody else.
Losing Mike means Alex has no one his size to defend him in practice at WF, and defaults to Dre, Sheed or Tyler.
Having Tyler, Sheed, Josh and MP3 to push the seniors could be done in a couple different flavors:
Seth - Quinn
Dre - Sheed
Alex - Tyler
Ryan - Josh
Mason - MP3
Quinn - Tyler
Seth - Sheed
Dre - Alex
Ryan - Josh
MP2 - MP3
Alex defending Dre if Dre continues to stand around beyond the 3 point line does not help Alex develop as a WF Defender either. Tyler is not an offensive threat either, so perhaps Sheed is the quick WF that helps Alex learn to defend the WF slot.
So while Tyler may defend Alex in first set above, perhaps on the other end Alex defends Sheed and Seth/Dre defend defend Quinn/Tyler as they did this year.
So unless Duke can get Rodney Hood or Amile, though it may not show up as much in game substitutions, it has a pretty dramatic impact on development at practices.
The third flavor would be Dre on the second squad
My rationale regarding the reallocation of PG minutes from Thornton (who didn't really play that much actual PG this year) to Cook is because I think Cook has the higher ceiling, and with a year of experience and health under his belt I'm hopeful he's ready to approach that ceiling. As you said, that remains to be seen. But I feel quite sure that one of Cook/Thornton/Sulaimon will start alongside Curry in the backcourt. If Dawkins starts, I believe it'll be at SF.
It's up to Dre the senior and to Alex the only properly sized WF to show they both deserve to start so much so that Seth is the PG over traditional PGs like Quinn and Tyler.
Alex, Ryan and Mason all being decent ballhandlers makes it possible to absorb Dre's average ballhandling capability wihtout leaving Seth by his lonesome in that category. This assumes he continues to improve his defense and does more than camp out at 3 point line on offense. It's now or never for Dre and I expect he responds as seniors often do.
I see Tyler continues to get little love on this board let alone the respect that he’s earned. Every other player on this team is supposedly going to make a vast improvement over what they showed us last year, but not poor Tyler. No, Tyler is going to be relegated to the scrap heap. Maybe someone needs to tell him this so he can join Mike.
Dre hit two huge shots for us against Baylor and that seems to have gotten him a permanent, “Get out of Jail Free”, card, despite two lackluster seasons since then. Now Tyler has shown solid if not spectacular progress from his freshman year to his sophomore year, but everyone and their brother wants to write this kid off, everyone that is except for Coach K. Exactly what does this kid have to do to prove himself to numerous board members?
Since I wasn’t a board member during Wojo’s playing days I’m curious just how he was viewed by board members. Somehow I get the feeling that he was viewed in much the same fashion as Tyler is. Maybe it will take four years of constant improvement and pouring his heart and soul into each and every game for people to realize just how special this kid really is. Yes, pretty doesn’t define his game, but it wasn’t a word associated with Wojo’s play either.
I don't dislike Thornton. He's scrappy, smart, and unselfish. He certainly doesn't get cheated on effort, and he's a great communicator. Those are terrific qualities for a player. But he's very limited offensively, and as the season progressed that became more and more clear (teams were absolutely daring him to shoot). He's also not that good at on-ball defense except against bigger players (where his quickness isn't exploited). Against quicker players he was regularly at a disadvantage and as such got beaten frequently and committed a lot of fouls.
It may very well be that Thornton remains a starter next year. But I think for this team to make the jump, that needs to not be the case. He's a great guy to have on a basketball team, but I just don't feel like he's a great guy to play major minutes on an elite team.
I am hoping for a slightly different look. I still like Tyler better as an off the bench defensive specialist defending the wing. I do agree with NSDuke that Tyler did improve his on ball defense later in the year though. He got in Green's grill for two entire games. He did actually improve there throughout the season.
My wish would be the following
PG- Starter: Cook, Backups: Suliamon, Curry
SG- Starter: Curry, Backups: Suliamon, Tyler, Andre
SF- Starter: Murphy, Backups: Andre, Tyler
PF- Starter: Kelly, Backups: Josh, Murphy, Mason
C- Starter: Mason, Backups: Marshall, Kelly
Interesting line ups I would like to see beyond my starting 5 of Cook, Curry, Murphy, Kelly, Mason are:
Cook, Suliamon, Murphy, Kelly, Mason (Playmakers, slashers, and shooters opening up space for the big guy down low, Suliamon defending the opposing PG, Cook defending SG)
Cook, Curry, Andre, Murphy, Mason (Playmaker, 2 deep threats, a slasher at the 4, space for Mason, sacrifices defense on the perimeter though)
Suliamon, Curry, Murphy, Kelly, Mason (Solid perimeter defense, size at the 3, 3 really good shooters, space for Mason)
Suliamon, Tyler, Murphy, Josh, Mason (Best perimeter defense, with a hopefully slimmer Hairston adding quickness at the 4, Mason patrolling the back line of defense)
Cook, Curry, Andre, Mason, Marshall (Got to have the brothers together at least once)
Suilamon, Andre, Murphy, Kelly, Mason (Big lineup, 3 good shooters and 1 slasher to open space for Mason. Murph and Kelly have to help with ball handling duties)
Cook, Curry, Murphy, Kelly, Marshall (Playmaker, 2 really good shooters, Slasher, Big Fella Send it in!)
One line up I really had hoped to see once in awhile and now won't get to goshdarnittohell:
Cook, Suliamon, Murphy, Gbinije, Mason
Duke FB 2013 Coastal Division Football Champions
If you asked me to state right now who will garner the most minutes next year between Andre and Tyler and get it correct, I have to say Tyler.
I guess what makes my opinion different from others is I think Tyler is more effective on the wing than at the point. He has proven he can guard wings that are bigger than him effectively. His trouble is with smaller, quicker, guards.
He is going to play, it's just a matter of how K chooses to use him.
Duke FB 2013 Coastal Division Football Champions
The only issue I have with Thornton playing major minutes is that he's a HUGE liability on offense. If he can become a 40% 3pt shooter, maybe he can warrant minutes at SF. In that scenario, he could essentially fill the Dawkins role as a spot up shooter while playing better defense than Dawkins. But if I had to choose a PG for next year, ideally he would not be it.
It's funny this thing called perception. It seems that Tyler is viewed by many as a walking hack machine, however I took a quick peek at his stats for the year and he averaged only 2.8 fouls per game. Yet somehow people talk about him as if he's fouled out of every game he's suited up for us last year.
Tyler fouled a lot early in the year, but got much better towards the end of the year. He did foul out against Lehigh but that was mainly pure frustration combined with killing himself trying to win.
Duke FB 2013 Coastal Division Football Champions
Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.
You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner
You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke