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  1. #221
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    Dec 2010
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    The Republic of Texas
    My sources tell me that Coach K plans on implementing a new system to determine who will be in the starting 5. They will choose the top 8 player performances in the practices leading up to the game and put those names in a drawing. Then on gameday, the Blue Devil mascot will draw 5 names out of the hat and those will be the 5 guys who start.

  2. #222
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    Feb 2010
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    Columbus OH 614
    Quote Originally Posted by dcdevil2009 View Post
    Wasn't the class of 2011 considered to be much deeper and stronger overall than the class of 2012, so comparing the relative rankings of individual players across classes is somewhat apples and oranges? Granted ESPN's rankings aren't the most reputable, but since they also give grades to players, they're rankings are the easiest to compare across classes. This year, there are only two 98s, but last year, they gave their 8th ranked player, Marquis Teague a 98. Marshall and Alex were both 96s in ESPN's final 2011 rankings (35 and 41 overall respectively). I don't think it's unreasonable to think they've each added a point to their games since last year, which would make them 97s entering their first year of eligibility and put them at worst 20 and 21 in ESPN's rankings (recruits 3-19 have 97 grades). We haven't seen them play, so it requires some conjecture, but a year of practice against D1 players and the added physical maturity should justify an expectation of improvement instead of stagnation or regression.

    If Marshall and Murphy didn't have the redshirt stigma and were graded under the same rubric as the rest of 2012's first year players, I don't see how we're not ranked in the top ten to start the season. It's unfortunate that we're going to lose our consecutive weeks in the top ten streak based on a perception, which I believe doesn't comport with reality. Do people really think Andy Katz would have us ranked 15 in his early preseason rankings if we were bringing in his company's 12th, 20th, and 21st ranked recruits to replace Austin Rivers and Miles Plumlee?
    I think everyone has been trying to move off this subject and it really isn't that big of deal to begin with....my problem with what your saying though is that...Im sure you could add a point to both Alex and Marshall as im sure they've both improved but you cant re-rank them seeing as the reason for their improvement is that they're already in college....the rest of those kids aren't (This really only applies to Alex who was possibly going to play a 5th year of HS ball, don't think Marshall had any attentions of doing an extra year)

  3. #223
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    Feb 2010
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    Columbus OH 614
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    A lot of guys can dunk. That's hardly evidence that they deserve to play major minutes on a top 5 or top 10 Division I team.



    You seem very positive on this point, like there's only one answer, but many people believe young players get better in practice, rather than games. Coach K happens to be one of those people. Just because you disagree with him doesn't mean he's wrong.



    If you play Michael and Josh, that means you're sitting someone else who deserves minutes. Why are the less-ready players more deserving of playing time than the more-ready players?



    People say this a lot, but (a) I don't believe that they'd be OK losing early season games; (b) it doesn't logically follow that playing your 9th and 10th man early in the year will help you win games later in the year, especially if you play a 7-man rotation in the tournament and so the 9th and 10th man won't actually be playing then anyway; and (c) losing early season games could lead to getting a worse seed in the NCAAT, which means you'd be playing better teams in the tournament and thus have a lower probability of beating them, which means that doing what you suggest might actually make it more likely that we'll lose in the post-season.



    It might tick you off, but if you want to root for Duke you just have to grit your teeth and get used to it, because Coach K has done pretty well using this philosophy, and he isn't going to change it any time soon.

    I don't think he's saying dunking is everything, just that when Mike was in the plays he made few or not were the kind you want from an athletic SF which was something we were missing....how many dunks outside of the bigs did we have on the season? I can think of 3 not counting 2 from Mike...and though not everything they do help momentum and get the crowd pumped. I also remember Mike scoring on a post up against a smaller defender...those are things I at least want to see more of from Mike and Alex next year

  4. #224
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    Jan 2009
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    Chicago, IL
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    A lot of guys can dunk. That's hardly evidence that they deserve to play major minutes on a top 5 or top 10 Division I team.



    You seem very positive on this point, like there's only one answer, but many people believe young players get better in practice, rather than games. Coach K happens to be one of those people. Just because you disagree with him doesn't mean he's wrong.



    If you play Michael and Josh, that means you're sitting someone else who deserves minutes. Why are the less-ready players more deserving of playing time than the more-ready players?



    People say this a lot, but (a) I don't believe that they'd be OK losing early season games; (b) it doesn't logically follow that playing your 9th and 10th man early in the year will help you win games later in the year, especially if you play a 7-man rotation in the tournament and so the 9th and 10th man won't actually be playing then anyway; and (c) losing early season games could lead to getting a worse seed in the NCAAT, which means you'd be playing better teams in the tournament and thus have a lower probability of beating them, which means that doing what you suggest might actually make it more likely that we'll lose in the post-season.



    It might tick you off, but if you want to root for Duke you just have to grit your teeth and get used to it, because Coach K has done pretty well using this philosophy, and he isn't going to change it any time soon.

    This is a year where that changes. We could potentially go 11 deep and not that I expect to go that deep throughout the season, we should be going 9-10 deep. We have to get these guys to run and gun more and we'll need more bodies to do that. We should press more too. Also, we have too many unproven but talented players. Between Josh, Alex, Mike G, Rasheed, and Andre someone is going to have to step up in a big way and we should be using the first 10-15 games of the season to figure who that someone is.

  5. #225
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    Jun 2009
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    Dayton, OH
    There are a number of people saying we should press more, but I just don't see that kind of ability in this Duke team. No one on the roster has proved they are able to even consistantly stay in front of perimeter players. Thornton is our presumed best on ball defender, and if he had to press, he would foul out in about ten minutes.

    I understand we could trap the ball and force turnovers, but I think it is more likely that Mason or Kelly get in foul trouble trying to protect the basket after the press is broken.

    Just my opinion

  6. #226
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoCrazy84 View Post
    This is a year where that changes. We could potentially go 11 deep and not that I expect to go that deep throughout the season, we should be going 9-10 deep. We have to get these guys to run and gun more and we'll need more bodies to do that. We should press more too. Also, we have too many unproven but talented players. Between Josh, Alex, Mike G, Rasheed, and Andre someone is going to have to step up in a big way and we should be using the first 10-15 games of the season to figure who that someone is.
    I like where your head is at here, and your enthusiasm for running.

    I think you'll see a first half rotation that goes deeper than the second half rotation this coming year. To some extent you saw that this past season with Josh and Quinn. I'd prefer to see that dynamic, but that it be more of a platoon style thing where the guys getting limited minutes come in and run and press.

    If you want to project what Gbinije does this coming season, I actually think Josh's minutes and production is a good example. His freshman year, Josh played 165 minutes and took 36 shots. His sophomore year, Josh played 246 minutes and had 69 shots. His DNP's dropped from 10 to 5.

    I suspect Gbinije will see his DNP's drop. He had 15 of them this year and played 111 minutes and attempted 20 shots. I think he will probably play 6-8 minutes in all but the biggest games. If he shows he can lock someone down defensively or starts getting steals and dunks, then he can see his role increase. But we probably do not need him as a 3-point shooter since we have Andre and Seth and Ryan. I think Gbinije's biggest opportunity to play more minutes is as a lockdown defender on an up-tempo team.

  7. #227
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    You seem very positive on this point, like there's only one answer, but many people believe young players get better in practice, rather than games.

    I agree that practice is very important to a young players development, but game time and practice time are very different animals. Without adequate exposure to game time (especially in low leverage situations), I think you run the risk of hindering a players development.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    People say this a lot, but (a) I don't believe that they'd be OK losing early season games; (b) it doesn't logically follow that playing your 9th and 10th man early in the year will help you win games later in the year, especially if you play a 7-man rotation in the tournament and so the 9th and 10th man won't actually be playing then anyway; and (c) losing early season games could lead to getting a worse seed in the NCAAT, which means you'd be playing better teams in the tournament and thus have a lower probability of beating them, which means that doing what you suggest might actually make it more likely that we'll lose in the post-season.
    (a) I can't speak for everyone but I tend to remember tournament losses (ACC or NCAA) far more often than losses in December and January. (b) I think that depends on how you look at it. Playing the 9th and 10th man earlier in the year could keep your 1 through 7 men fresher. The plan may be to not play the 9th and 10 men but plans often change. (c) performance toward the end of the year will have a far larger impact than early season losses with respect to seeding.

  8. #228
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    Mar 2012
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    Cali
    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoCrazy84 View Post
    This is a year where that changes. We could potentially go 11 deep and not that I expect to go that deep throughout the season, we should be going 9-10 deep. We have to get these guys to run and gun more and we'll need more bodies to do that. We should press more too. Also, we have too many unproven but talented players. Between Josh, Alex, Mike G, Rasheed, and Andre someone is going to have to step up in a big way and we should be using the first 10-15 games of the season to figure who that someone is.
    Duke is usually 9-10 players deep. With more than half of those players in the backcourt. But K's normal rotation is 7 main players, with 1-2 guys getting spot minutes. K always plays his Studs major minutes, regardless of the game situation, magnitude of the game or if the game is early in the season or during ACC play. I'm pretty sure being 9-10 players deep doesnt mean K will play 9-10 guys on a regular basis.
    In fact I expect 2 guys not to get more than 4 minutes a game.
    I really hope Marshall and Hairston get consistent minutes each game and every half. The development of those 2 guys for the frontcourt is going to be important not just this upcoming season, but once Mason and Kelly graduate.

    Side note: I cant believe how fast the last 2 seasons have gone by. Thornton and Hairston will be in their Junior seasons.

  9. #229
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by tdrake51 View Post
    There are a number of people saying we should press more, but I just don't see that kind of ability in this Duke team. No one on the roster has proved they are able to even consistantly stay in front of perimeter players. Thornton is our presumed best on ball defender, and if he had to press, he would foul out in about ten minutes.

    I understand we could trap the ball and force turnovers, but I think it is more likely that Mason or Kelly get in foul trouble trying to protect the basket after the press is broken.

    Just my opinion
    I dont think we should use Ryan or Mason (or Marshall) to press and trap. I think we should specifically designate Tyler, Josh and Michael for that purpose and do it in a more limited manner, such as for two 2-minute spurts in the first half. The biggest advantage depth gives you is you have enough bodies to keep your big guns fresh and aggressive. Pressing and trapping will make a team with significant defensive deficiencies the aggressor. It will change their mindset.

  10. #230
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    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    As I mentioned in my earlier post, Ricky Price was suspended from school for the first month and a half and never caught up. I don't think he's a great analog for Tyler Thornton.

    Greg Paulus played heavy minutes into mid-February and averaged 16+ mpg for the season. He did drop out of the rotation in mid-February, replaced by someone who had not previously been in the rotation, essentially for defensive purposes. Again, not particularly analogous to Tyler. I suppose Tyler could play rotation minutes until February and then drop out in favor of the 9th man (whoever that is: Michael? Andre?), but since Tyler's already a pretty good defensive player, it's hard to imagine him earning big early season minutes and then dropping from the rotation entirely, absent an injury or getting kicked off the team (which I'd view as highly unlikely). But I suppose there's a remote possibility it could happen if our offense was really sputtering and Andre was sitting there at the end of the bench.
    Fair point on Price. I do think the analogy to Paulus holds, in that both were de facto starting point guards primarily because the team had no better options. Keep in mind the assumptions I made in laying out the scenario (and one I missed, which is G also making a big jump and being ready for regular PT). And the role that Tyler really played - caretaker on offense, generally drawing the opponent's toughest perimeter player on D - and the factors which led to it, namely:

    -Quinn not being 100%, at least to start the year
    -Seth not being fully comfortable at the point
    -G not being ready for regular minutes
    -Dre's inconsistency and defensive lapses
    -The need to have both Rivers and Curry on the floor a lot for perimeter scoring

    In my rotation scenario, the first three above no longer hold true, and even if Dre remains a bit of a wild card (he did play more minutes than TT over the course of the season), I would expect the team to be less perimeter oriented generally, and for Mason and Kelly to both get more touches. Moreover, the assumption that Rasheed - who is 3 inches taller than Tyler, with long arms, better quickness and more offensive skills - is ready to contribute from day 1 directly threatens Thornton's PT next season in my view, whether or not any or all of my other assumptions hold true. Finally, I have been a Duke fan long enough (my freshman year was K's second at Duke) to know that rotations and PT splits from one year often have little carry over to the next. As Coach K himself has said many times, all spots are open to competition when practice begins. Tyler may very well stay in the rotation, but he'll have to earn against what may be a starkly different competitive backdrop, one which to me looks a lot less favorable to him.

  11. #231
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    Jan 2009
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    Chicago, IL
    Quote Originally Posted by tdrake51 View Post
    There are a number of people saying we should press more, but I just don't see that kind of ability in this Duke team. No one on the roster has proved they are able to even consistantly stay in front of perimeter players. Thornton is our presumed best on ball defender, and if he had to press, he would foul out in about ten minutes.

    I understand we could trap the ball and force turnovers, but I think it is more likely that Mason or Kelly get in foul trouble trying to protect the basket after the press is broken.

    Just my opinion

    I respect your opinion but pencil me in as one that thinks Tyler and Quinn will take major steps forward. They know the PG position this past year was not its best in recent seasons and I think these two have too much pride to let that be the case again. Tyler saw a big increase in minutes and I think that allowed him to realize just how much he needs to develop as a weapon both offensively and defensively.

  12. #232
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    Apr 2010
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    Arlington, VA
    How much does the offensive system we run impact the type of defense we can play? Even though teams generally press only after made baskets, one would think we'd still have to have time to get in position to set up the press before the ball is inbounded. If we're running a lot of motion sets and shooting a lot of threes where we'd have to get back on defense in case of a miss, it seems like it would be harder to set up the press than if we're penetrating and shooting a lot of layups and short jumpers. Maybe it's that teams that are built to press are also built to get out and run on offense, but I can't remember any teams that used a lot of presses and traps while running a slow-tempo, half-court offense.

  13. #233
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    (a) I can't speak for everyone but I tend to remember tournament losses (ACC or NCAA) far more often than losses in December and January. (b) I think that depends on how you look at it. Playing the 9th and 10th man earlier in the year could keep your 1 through 7 men fresher. The plan may be to not play the 9th and 10 men but plans often change. (c) performance toward the end of the year will have a far larger impact than early season losses with respect to seeding.
    I think everyone remembers ACCT/NCAAT losses more than early season losses, but that's what happens when you look back on a season as a whole. It's different when you're actually 'in the moment' of watching a game and not looking at the big picture of the whole season. During the last few minutes of the Maui championship game, I doubt anyone was thinking, "I'm ok with doing something that increases our chances of losing this game as long as we're doing something that may or may not pay off later in the season." Coach K always says that he wants to win every game. During that particular game against Kansas, he went with the lineup he thought would give Duke the best chance to win that game, which ended with a victory over the national runner-up and a huge resume-builder.

    Of course, the championship game of a preseason tournament is different from a December game against Western Michigan, but K already goes deep into his bench during those cupcake games. Also, during this past season in particular, with so few proven players and a greater need to establish roles, I can't fault K for giving the more experienced guys more playing time to help them come out from the shadows of Kyle and Nolan.

  14. #234
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    Sep 2008
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    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoCrazy84 View Post
    This is a year where that changes. We could potentially go 11 deep and not that I expect to go that deep throughout the season, we should be going 9-10 deep. We have to get these guys to run and gun more and we'll need more bodies to do that. We should press more too. Also, we have too many unproven but talented players. Between Josh, Alex, Mike G, Rasheed, and Andre someone is going to have to step up in a big way and we should be using the first 10-15 games of the season to figure who that someone is.
    I agree with you, and if I were coaching the team this is probably how I would do it. But Coach K has had deep teams before, and he really hasn't done it this way. A couple years he went 10 deep the first month of the season, but even in those years, by late January he was down to 7.

  15. #235
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Some of the things that people are looking for are fueled by the shortcomings of this year's team (nobody at the 3, weak play at the 1 and 2, players playing roles that don't suit them). The result are people hoping for:

    • Silent G and Alex to step up and play well at the 3 (and be a backup for Kelly at the 4)
    • Quinn to start and give us a PG that can run an offense
    • Rasheed to come in and give us a SG that can play offense and defense


    I think that one of our issues last year was that we had people playing roles for which they were not suited:
    • Tyler starting at PG and playing lots of minutes - I see his role as a backup PG who's strength is as a help defender and general pain the rear for our opponents. We really need Quinn to step up and take over the PG duties. I thought his defense did improve over the last 2 weeks of the season.
    • Seth starting at SG and trying to play some PG - I think he'd be a great 6th man providing scoring off the bench (I know I'll get killed for that but a short guard who's not very quick is going to have issues). I'm hoping that Rasheed will be good enough to take over (wishful thinking, I know)
    • Austin playing SF - He was out of position and still played pretty well. I wish Silent G would have made more progress. Hopefully he can make a nice jump into his soph year and stay healthy. Even if Mike was ready to play Curry couldn't shift to PG so were going to have issues.


    To get back to the original question, now that we know Mason is staying and Bass is west coast bound here's the lineup I'd LIKE to see (note that I realize that it's not likely):

    PG: Quinn/Tyler
    SG: Rasheed/Curry/Dawkins
    SF: Mike/Alex/Dawkins
    PF: Kelly/Alex/Mike/Hairston
    C: MP2/MP3/Kelly

    We might lose some games early in the season but it would cool to be one of the teams that improves greatly at the end and makes a run like we did in 2010. I also like that K adjusts lineups and PT based on match ups and who we are playing.

  16. #236
    Quote Originally Posted by wk2109 View Post
    I think everyone remembers ACCT/NCAAT losses more than early season losses, but that's what happens when you look back on a season as a whole. It's different when you're actually 'in the moment' of watching a game and not looking at the big picture of the whole season. During the last few minutes of the Maui championship game, I doubt anyone was thinking, "I'm ok with doing something that increases our chances of losing this game as long as we're doing something that may or may not pay off later in the season." Coach K always says that he wants to win every game. During that particular game against Kansas, he went with the lineup he thought would give Duke the best chance to win that game, which ended with a victory over the national runner-up and a huge resume-builder.

    Of course, the championship game of a preseason tournament is different from a December game against Western Michigan, but K already goes deep into his bench during those cupcake games. Also, during this past season in particular, with so few proven players and a greater need to establish roles, I can't fault K for giving the more experienced guys more playing time to help them come out from the shadows of Kyle and Nolan.
    I think when most people call for a deeper bench early in the season it's not to increase our chances of losing the game but to develop the best team possible. Given our current roster, I think it's a mistake to assume that subbing our 8-10 players in for our 5-7 players automatically increases our chances to lose while may or may not help us later on.

    While Coach K may go deeper into the bench during cupcake games, some might argue the benefit of playing the 8-12 or 9-13 together. I'd rather see the 8-11 guys mixed in with the 1-7 guys.

    I know I can happy beating a cupcake by 15 as opposed to 25 if it means potentially building a better team for March.

  17. #237
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    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Go Blue! Go White!

    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    I think when most people call for a deeper bench early in the season it's not to increase our chances of losing the game but to develop the best team possible. Given our current roster, I think it's a mistake to assume that subbing our 8-10 players in for our 5-7 players automatically increases our chances to lose while may or may not help us later on.

    While Coach K may go deeper into the bench during cupcake games, some might argue the benefit of playing the 8-12 or 9-13 together. I'd rather see the 8-11 guys mixed in with the 1-7 guys.

    I know I can happy beating a cupcake by 15 as opposed to 25 if it means potentially building a better team for March.
    We got 11 players that we have reason to expect to be productive. So how about a second unit?

    Blue Team:
    Mason
    Kelly
    Murphy
    Curry/ Rasheed
    Thornton

    White Team:
    Marshall
    Hairston
    Gbinije
    Dawkins
    Cook

    Or, some other combinations.

    sagegrouse

  18. #238
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    Jun 2009
    Location
    Dayton, OH
    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoCrazy84 View Post
    I respect your opinion but pencil me in as one that thinks Tyler and Quinn will take major steps forward. They know the PG position this past year was not its best in recent seasons and I think these two have too much pride to let that be the case again. Tyler saw a big increase in minutes and I think that allowed him to realize just how much he needs to develop as a weapon both offensively and defensively.
    Yeah, I hope you are right. I would love to see a more up-tempo, attacking style on both sides of the ball.

  19. #239
    25-30 mpg guaranteed: Kelly, Plumlee 2, Curry
    Rotation spot guaranteed, 20 mpg probable: Thornton

    That leaves three guards that you could easily make a case for (Dawkins, Cook, Sulaimon), two 6'8 guys who could play on the wing or slide over to the "4" a la Dunleavy, Battier (Murphy, Gbinije), and two bigs (Plumlee 3, Hairston). Who makes the rotation out of this group? Ultimately performance will determine that, but my best guess is:

    5th starter: Gbinije
    6th man A: Murphy - backs up the wing, would often be the second-biggest guy on the court
    6th man B: Cook - nobody else on the team has his offensive skill set
    8th man: Sulaimon vs. Dawkins - can't guarantee contributions from a freshman, but if the hype is anywhere close to true, Sulaimon will be a better slasher and defender than Dawkins
    9th man: Plumlee 3 vs. Hairston - I say Hairston wins this battle, except when the matchup calls for more size.

    I really like Dawkins and hope he earns a rotation spot... and he very well could end up as the 5th starter or winning the competition with Sulaimon to be the 8th man. If he elevates his defense, everything changes. But one of the wings/guards is not going to play that much, and I think that's most likely to be Dawkins. I wouldn't be surprised if he begins the season as the 5th starter but loses that position to a younger player.

  20. #240
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by elvis14 View Post

    To get back to the original question, now that we know Mason is staying and Bass is west coast bound here's the lineup I'd LIKE to see (note that I realize that it's not likely):

    PG: Quinn/Tyler
    SG: Rasheed/Curry/Dawkins
    SF: Mike/Alex/Dawkins
    PF: Kelly/Alex/Mike/Hairston
    C: MP2/MP3/Kelly

    We might lose some games early in the season but it would cool to be one of the teams that improves greatly at the end and makes a run like we did in 2010. I also like that K adjusts lineups and PT based on match ups and who we are playing.
    Based on last year's lineup tinkering, I think its going to be tough to predict lineups this year. In the 1-3 spots, particularly the starting 3 spot and backup 2-4 spots its going to be real tough. Kelly and MP2 are locks for starting 4 & 5. I expect (pray) Quinn to start 50%+ of the games this year at the 1, hopefully more, but Tyler will play.

    The wing is very hard to predict. From what I heard, Alex was further along last year than Mike in the preseason/early season, but that's almost meaningless for this upcoming year. My guess is Alex plays more than Mike this year, but we'll see. I won't count out Andre either as anyone can have a big offseason, but someone out of those 3 is going to going to get boxed out. On that subject...

    We dismiss this notion of going 10+ deep every year, but let's go ahead and do it again. Last year is actually a great barometer for this discussion b/c our lineups will be near identical from a mixture perspective (i.e. we don't become MORE guard heavy or MORE wing heavy MORE bigs heavy this year...really about the same). We had 12 scholarship players last year, we have 11 this year. Last year 3 guys didn't play, (alex mike mp3) and 1 got minimal time (josh) so that's 8 main guys and 1 guy to give the occasional blow/foul trouble/etc.

    I expect about the same this year given the lineup mixture is about the same:
    - 3 pure backcourt players (Quinn, Tyler, Curry--no difference)
    - 3 pure bigs (MP2, MP3, Kelly--same as last year if you sub in MP3 for MP1, who play the same role: backup center/big man)
    - 5 wings (Dre, Sheed, Alex, Mike, Josh--same if you sub in Sheed for Austin).

    In the backcourt 1 of these guys is very likely to see less than the others. Quinn was that man this year, I expect (pray) him to switch with Tyler and for Curry to play 30mpg. Same with the 3 bigs, with Marshall seeing less time than the other 2.

    The wing is the x-factor. 2 will play a good amount (at least 10-15mpg), 2 guys will hardly play and 1 will see minimal time. Last year it was Alex and Mike hardly playing and Josh seeing minimal time. What will the combo be this year? Tough to tell but my guess is its Sheed and Josh hardly playing with Mike seeing minimal time. There's only room for 2 of Dre/Alex/Mike to play a lot at the 3, Dre will get some time there b/c he's a senior and a deadly weapon (believe me I have my gripes, but the dude player 22mpg and never played less than 10 all year...he's GONNA PLAY, whether you like it or not). My guess is Alex get's a chunk of minutes there and is also big enough to take Josh's role of "4th post player," if he proves tough enough, so my guess is Alex wins this spot, reducing Mike to and Josh to minimal players. Sheed is just stuck behind 2 seniors in Dre and Curry, and while he can play some point and may benefit from K preferring 3 guard lineups, its tough for me to see him getting real minutes away from Quinn, Seth, or Tyler, and its tough to play him in a 3G lineup without Dre (otherwise you can someone way too small at the 3), so I don't think he gets much run.

    Also like last year, I expect there to be fluctuations throughout the season. We obviously started with Seth as our PG, then moved to Quinn in Dec/Jan, then settled on Tyler, with Seth/Quinn backing up. Miles moved into the starting lineup in the last 3rd of the season.

    What does that boil down to? My guess is

    1 Quinn
    2 Curry
    3 Alex
    4 Ryan
    5 Mason

    With Tyler, Dre, and Marshall seeing real minutes off the bench, and Josh, Mike and Sheed being minimized. Different from last year though, is that I don't expect Marshall to play as much as Miles, so that could mean more minutes for Alex/Josh/Mike (since they are wings/posts), but conversely I also expect to see fewer 3 guard lineups, which is why I think one of 5 guards or small wing guys gets minimalized next year (I'm guessing Sheed, but could be Dre or Tyler).

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    Replies: 192
    Last Post: 11-17-2008, 06:26 PM

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