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  1. #141
    Quote Originally Posted by wk2109 View Post
    I've actually thought the opposite and am afraid people are expecting too much from Rasheed before he even steps on campus. People compare him to Nolan Smith, but Nolan also began his career on a team with several returning guards and didn't get many minutes as a freshman. Rasheed might have certain physical gifts that the other guards don't have, but there's the possibility that the college game might be too fast for him initially. Michael also had certain physical attributes that theoretically filled a need on this past year's team but he barely played.

    I like what I've seen from Rasheed so far, but I don't get the impression that he's a Kyrie/Austin type of can't-miss guard who will start from day one.
    I don't think anyone is projecting him as an Irving/Rivers type contributor from day 1. If they are, they're wrong. I'd expect somewhere around sophomore year Smith from Sulaimon next year. He's further along than Smith was as a senior in high school (better shooter, better ballhandler, as good or better defensively). I'd expect Sulaimon to be a regular in the lineup next year. Not a star, but a solid player. By his sophomore year, I'll be surprised if he's not a 12+ ppg scorer (think Daniel Ewing as a sophomore/junior).

  2. #142
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
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    Columbus OH 614
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I don't see either Murphy or (especially) Gbinije getting all of their minutes at PF next year. So I'd say that we still have at least 6.5 guys competing for 3 spots. And that's assuming that one of Hairston or Marshall isn't ready to provide 10-15 mpg next year, which seems unlikely to me. I'd expect both to be ready to provide that level of contribution.

    The reality is that we have 11 fairly heavily-recruited players for 8-9 regular rotation spots. So 2-3 guys are going to get squeezed next year.



    I would expect Sulaimon to be one the best on-ball defenders we have next year, if not the best. That's a statement both about his abilities and the limitations of the guys returning on the perimeter.

    I for one am not expecting much out of Marshall next year, if your of the belief that Murphy made the decision to redshirt on his own, Marshall didn't make that choice, he just wasn't anywhere near ready and had no chance of seeing time, I'm not sold that it will be a much different story this coming year either.

    I could make the argument that Mike G was our best on ball defender this year just based off pure ability, he's just as quick laterally as any of the guards plus he's 6'7 and long...but you still gotta learn the defensive schemes and know exactly where you need to be on the court especially on rotations which Mike had problems with....Hopefully Rasheed can pick things up quickly b/c like Mike the ability is clearly there...gotta put it all together though.

  3. #143
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    By his sophomore year, I'll be surprised if he's not a 12+ ppg scorer (think Daniel Ewing as a sophomore/junior).
    To me, Daniel Ewing is actually a better comparison than Nolan. Perhaps it's the Texas connection. I hope Rasheed can be the kind of four-year do-it-all guard that Ewing was.

  4. #144
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    I for one am not expecting much out of Marshall next year, if your of the belief that Murphy made the decision to redshirt on his own, Marshall didn't make that choice, he just wasn't anywhere near ready and had no chance of seeing time, I'm not sold that it will be a much different story this coming year either.
    Marshall was not ready last year. He also had the unfortunate situation where he was behind two upperclassmen at his position who were far more ready. Next year, that number reduces to one, and he'll have had a year of physical development and a year of practice in the system. I see no reason why we shouldn't expect 10-15mpg as a backup big man next year. I'm not expecting huge numbers at all. Just expecting him to be a capable backup big man.

    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    I could make the argument that Mike G was our best on ball defender this year just based off pure ability, he's just as quick laterally as any of the guards plus he's 6'7 and long...but you still gotta learn the defensive schemes and know exactly where you need to be on the court especially on rotations which Mike had problems with....Hopefully Rasheed can pick things up quickly b/c like Mike the ability is clearly there...gotta put it all together though.
    I wouldn't make the argument that Gbinije was our best on-ball defender last year. He may have had the most potential to be a good on-ball defender, but potential is different from performance. Perhaps that's what you meant to say.

  5. #145
    Quote Originally Posted by wk2109 View Post
    To me, Daniel Ewing is actually a better comparison than Nolan. Perhaps it's the Texas connection. I hope Rasheed can be the kind of four-year do-it-all guard that Ewing was.
    Smith is the better comparison in terms of style of play. Sulaimon's game really is reminiscent of Smith moreso than Ewing. It's just that Smith was a little behind Sulaimon in development, and we tried to make him a PG when he really wasn't a PG early in his college career (which probably slowed his progress a bit).

  6. #146
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    Feb 2010
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    Columbus OH 614
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Marshall was not ready last year. He also had the unfortunate situation where he was behind two upperclassmen at his position who were far more ready. Next year, that number reduces to one, and he'll have had a year of physical development and a year of practice in the system. I see no reason why we shouldn't expect 10-15mpg as a backup big man next year. I'm not expecting huge numbers at all. Just expecting him to be a capable backup big man.



    I wouldn't make the argument that Gbinije was our best on-ball defender last year. He may have had the most potential to be a good on-ball defender, but potential is different from performance. Perhaps that's what you meant to say.
    Yea that was my whole point....that based on ability alone you could throw his name in there, but you also have to pick up the schemes and know whats going on and that's what Sheed will have to pick up quickly in order to be considered one of our best on ball defenders....thought I had made it clear

  7. #147
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    Yea that was my whole point....that based on ability alone you could throw his name in there, but you also have to pick up the schemes and know whats going on and that's what Sheed will have to pick up quickly in order to be considered one of our best on ball defenders....thought I had made it clear
    Yes, obviously he'll have to learn the schemes. I tend to think that's easier for the guards than for the bigs. And Sulaimon has seemed to show the acumen (based on his academic career) and ability and desire (based on his efforts defensively in these all-star games) to pick up the system and be an effective player defensively. It's not uncommon for guards to start right away at Duke. It's more uncommon for big men to do so. So I'd definitely expect Sulaimon to be a part of the regular rotation (in the ~18-20mpg range if I had to guess).

  8. #148
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The reality is that we have 11 fairly heavily-recruited players for 8-9 regular rotation spots. So 2-3 guys are going to get squeezed next year.
    ...And only one will be a true freshman. Sure is going to be interesting to see who's sitting on the bench in February, because I have zero idea who it will be.

  9. #149
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Questions, not Answers

    I think this is a useful thread. Rather than projecting starting lineups or minutes by player, I think about next year in terms of getting answers to questions about individual players. Here are a few, roughly in order of priority:

    1. Could Murphy really be the best player on the team? Would be an interesting development, eh?

    2. Whither Andre? We'll be a good team one way or the other, but I would sure like to see him play at a high level.

    3. Mason Plumlee, All-American? I would love it.

    4. Quinn Cook, strong enough to be the starting point? That would be a big step in terms of physical play, defense and leadership.

    5. Rasheed, good enough to start on day one? I always need to be shown by freshman, so I have no idea.

    sagegrouse

  10. #150
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
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    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by wk2109 View Post
    People compare him to Nolan Smith, but Nolan also began his career on a team with several returning guards and didn't get many minutes as a freshman.
    Nolan averaged 15 mpg as a freshman, and was getting double-digit minutes right until the end of the season. If Rasheed is a bit ahead of Nolan's development as a high school senior, it doesn't seem like a stretch to predict 18 to 20 minutes for Rasheed, especially considering our need for a defensive-minded guard.

  11. #151
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Nolan averaged 15 mpg as a freshman, and was getting double-digit minutes right until the end of the season. If Rasheed is a bit ahead of Nolan's development as a high school senior, it doesn't seem like a stretch to predict 18 to 20 minutes for Rasheed, especially considering our need for a defensive-minded guard.
    Of course, Duke may still have to divide 120 minutes seven ways.

  12. #152
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I think this is a useful thread. Rather than projecting starting lineups or minutes by player, I think about next year in terms of getting answers to questions about individual players. Here are a few, roughly in order of priority:

    1. Could Murphy really be the best player on the team? Would be an interesting development, eh?

    2. Whither Andre? We'll be a good team one way or the other, but I would sure like to see him play at a high level.

    3. Mason Plumlee, All-American? I would love it.

    4. Quinn Cook, strong enough to be the starting point? That would be a big step in terms of physical play, defense and leadership.

    5. Rasheed, good enough to start on day one? I always need to be shown by freshman, so I have no idea.

    sagegrouse
    I hope you don't mind if I continue:

    6. Tyler, will he continue to surprise many by being a starter and leader for the team? Can he get the ball inside to our post players?

    7. Will Michael Gbinijie show the defensive potential and increased offensive abilities that many of us are excited about?

    8. Has the year of practice and weight training during his redshirt year prepared Marshall to be a solid back-up center for this year's team?

    9. Can Seth continue to improve his ability to create offense off the dribble, even against bigger guards?

    10. Will Ryan be fully recovered? Will he increase his ability to create scoring opportunities and rebound at a higher level?

    11. Will Josh show enough improvement that he has to be in the rotation as well?

    12. Shabazz and Amile, interested in competing for championships?
    “Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”

  13. #153
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I think this is a useful thread. Rather than projecting starting lineups or minutes by player, I think about next year in terms of getting answers to questions about individual players. Here are a few, roughly in order of priority:

    1. Could Murphy really be the best player on the team? Would be an interesting development, eh?

    2. Whither Andre? We'll be a good team one way or the other, but I would sure like to see him play at a high level.

    3. Mason Plumlee, All-American? I would love it.

    4. Quinn Cook, strong enough to be the starting point? That would be a big step in terms of physical play, defense and leadership.

    5. Rasheed, good enough to start on day one? I always need to be shown by freshman, so I have no idea.

    sagegrouse
    Great list. Assuming we don't get 'Bazz (not to say I'm not hopeful), I'd add Mike G's development as a big priority, perhaps putting it right up there next to point number 1. We need one of Alex or Mike to become solid contributors next year. Preferably both will improve, obviously. If Rasheed's defense is ready to go AND Alex and Mike are ready for the big stage, it will really give us a lot more versatility. Incidentally, it may also play into your second point regarding Andre. If all three or any combination of two of the aforementioned guys are ready to contribute next year, Andre will also have to improve to keep his spot. Mike and Alex offer more size and versatility while Rasheed offers improved defense and better ballhandling (again, assuming he's ready to go and Mike and Alex improve). I think the playing time situation will be really up in the air next year. Outside of Mason and Ryan I'm not sure we can definitely pencil anyone into a starting spot, although I suspect Seth will also start.

  14. #154
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    1. Could Murphy really be the best player on the team? Would be an interesting development, eh?

    2. Whither Andre? We'll be a good team one way or the other, but I would sure like to see him play at a high level.

    3. Mason Plumlee, All-American? I would love it.

    4. Quinn Cook, strong enough to be the starting point? That would be a big step in terms of physical play, defense and leadership.

    5. Rasheed, good enough to start on day one? I always need to be shown by freshman, so I have no idea.
    Love this post sage. I'm just going to go through and give my opinions on these 5.

    1. I am a HUGE Murphy proponent. I think him becoming the best player this year is a little bit of a stretch, but I do believe that he will be a starter. I think he could have been a starter for us last year. We need to remember that he started in China before his concussion caused him to fall behind and eventually redshirt. Murphy will be a big part of our success next year.

    2. I think the trend we saw toward the end of the year last year continues. Dre, because of defensive struggles and the inability to be consistent, will continue to be squeezed into a role player that is used to come off the bench and hit 3's in certain situations. If he makes a few he stays in the game while he's hot.

    3. I don't think Mason is an All-American next year, but I see him being first team All-ACC and a 15 & 10 type guy. The offense will be catered toward him and I think with Capel getting an entire year to coach him we will see improvements to his back-to-the-basket game. I also think having Quinn as the primary ball handler will help Mason tremendously. Which leads me to...

    4. Yes I think Quinn will be the starting PG and the primary ball-handler. In limited playing time, and coming off a serious knee injury, last year he looked raw but very talented. He has the ability to run, create for others, and feed the post. If he can improve his defensive awareness I think he can be very good. He has shown the ability to lead and the passion to play extremely hard on both ends - two things you need in a PG and things you can't teach. My favorite Quinn memory from last year happened right after AR hit the shot to be Carolina. The team, along with Quinn, ran to tackle and pile on AR, but Quinn didn't fall into the pile. Instead, he got up and walked in front of the Carolina student section with his jersey out and point to DUKE across his chest. I love his passion and talent, and when you pair that with a year of experience and a true off-season I think he will move past TT on the depth chart.

    5. I think that Sheed is talented enough to start from day 1, but I don't think he will. I just don't see who you start him over. He is a true SG, and I don't think he supplants Seth as the starter there. He could theoretically play a stretch SF as Austin did last year, but as I said before, I see Murphy starting at SF. I think Sheed will end up averaging 18-20 minutes off the bench and be a REALLY good 6th man.

  15. #155
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Of course, Duke may still have to divide 120 minutes seven ways.
    Yeah, but in reality it will be divided no more than five ways.

  16. #156
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Nolan averaged 15 mpg as a freshman, and was getting double-digit minutes right until the end of the season. If Rasheed is a bit ahead of Nolan's development as a high school senior, it doesn't seem like a stretch to predict 18 to 20 minutes for Rasheed, especially considering our need for a defensive-minded guard.
    15 mpg is more than I thought Nolan averaged; while I wouldn't be completely shocked if Rasheed averaged 18-20 min, I'm still going to temper my expectations compared to those who are expecting him to jump right in as the starting 2 or 3. I'd absolutely love it if he could turn into the perimeter stopper that the team so sorely needs.

  17. #157
    Quote Originally Posted by wk2109 View Post
    15 mpg is more than I thought Nolan averaged; while I wouldn't be completely shocked if Rasheed averaged 18-20 min, I'm still going to temper my expectations compared to those who are expecting him to jump right in as the starting 2 or 3. I'd absolutely love it if he could turn into the perimeter stopper that the team so sorely needs.
    I don't think anyone is saying they expect him to start right away at the 2, though I wouldn't be completely shocked about it either. I can say quite confidently that he won't start (or play at all) at the 3. I think I've been about as high as anyone on Sulaimon, and I'm thinking around 18-20mpg as a backup at the SG spot.

    I think Sulaimon will very much be in the mix for reasonable minutes next year and will be a productive player. I don't think he'll be a star next year, and I don't think anyone is expecting such.

  18. #158
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Back to the original topic, three of the starting spots are not locked up no matter what happens: Curry, Kelly, and Mason. Judging by the preseason comments this year, unless Shabazz comes, I think there's a very high probability that Murphy is also a starter.

    That leaves one spot up for grabs. I'd say there's a 90+% chance it's either Cook or Thornton, with a small chance of Sulaimon or Dawkins starting and pushing Curry to PG. We can probably roughly approximate the whole thing as:

    1 Cook (50% chance), Thornton (50% chance)
    2 Curry (100%)
    3 Murphy (75%), Dawkins (25%)
    4 Kelly (100%)
    5 Mason (100%)

    Add in either Hairston or Marshall as a big man backup, and there's your 8 man rotation.

  19. #159
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Back to the original topic, three of the starting spots are not locked up no matter what happens: Curry, Kelly, and Mason. Judging by the preseason comments this year, unless Shabazz comes, I think there's a very high probability that Murphy is also a starter.

    That leaves one spot up for grabs. I'd say there's a 90+% chance it's either Cook or Thornton, with a small chance that Sulaimon or Dawkins starting and pushing Curry to PG. We can probably approximate the whole thing as:

    1 Cook (50% chance), Thornton (50% chance)
    2 Curry (100%)
    3 Murphy (75%), Dawkins (25%)
    4 Kelly (100%)
    5 Mason (100%)

    Add in either Hairston or Marshall as a big man backup, and there's your 8 man rotation.
    I'd tweak those estimates:

    PG: Cook/Thornton (~40-45% chance each), Curry (10-20%)
    SG: Curry (80-90%), Sulaimon (10-20%)
    SF: Murphy/Dawkins/Gbinije (?, but 100% chance it will be one of those 3)
    PF: Kelly (100%)
    C: Mason (100%)

    I can say with great confidence that Mason (C), Kelly (PF), and Curry (either SG or PG) will start. Where Curry starts depends on what he does this offseason and how guys like Thornton, Cook, and Sulaimon progress. I have absolutely no idea who will start at SF and I won't even venture a guess other than that it will be one of Dawkins, Murphy, and Gbinije.

  20. #160
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
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    Macon, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Back to the original topic, three of the starting spots are not locked up no matter what happens: Curry, Kelly, and Mason. Judging by the preseason comments this year, unless Shabazz comes, I think there's a very high probability that Murphy is also a starter.

    That leaves one spot up for grabs. I'd say there's a 90+% chance it's either Cook or Thornton, with a small chance of Sulaimon or Dawkins starting and pushing Curry to PG. We can probably roughly approximate the whole thing as:

    1 Cook (50% chance), Thornton (50% chance)
    2 Curry (100%)
    3 Murphy (75%), Dawkins (25%)
    4 Kelly (100%)
    5 Mason (100%)

    Add in either Hairston or Marshall as a big man backup, and there's your 8 man rotation.
    That's nine men right there, and I also believe Sulaimon will be heavily in the mix as well. I aslo strongly agree with you on Murphy.

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